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  • An Interview With Chris DeMuth Jr., Author Of 'Sifting The World' [View article]
    I lean towards SVXY just because it's an ETF, not ETN, which eliminates some tail risk associated with XIV, but I honestly am not an expert and have no preference. I was merely wondering if you had spotted something I hadn't!
    Apr 10, 2015. 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Interview With Chris DeMuth Jr., Author Of 'Sifting The World' [View article]
    It's perfectly acceptable to say "no reason". I was just wondering as I had looked at them both in the past as the type of structural arbitrage plays you mentioned.
    Apr 10, 2015. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Interview With Chris DeMuth Jr., Author Of 'Sifting The World' [View article]
    Chris,

    Any reason for suggesting XIV as a 20 year hold versus SVXY?
    Apr 10, 2015. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Exclusive Research Launched [View instapost]
    Congrats Chris. I'm sure it'll be awesome!
    Apr 2, 2015. 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ALJ Regional Holdings' New Acquisition Unlocks Value [View article]
    As we come up on the one year mark from this article, I thought it was worth posting a quick update. Obviously, the idea has been a home run, with shares trading in the low $3s versus the low $1s when the article came out, but I think there's continued upside even from today's prices. I posted some more extensive thoughts in a July update that I will link to at the end of this comment, but since that article came out there has been even more news that points to continued value creation and I actually added some shares this week in the low $3s.

    There have been three recent indications that ALJJ's value is significantly higher than today's share price. First, in August, the company announced a share repurchase program. ALJJ has significant NOLs whose value can be maximized by deploying cash towards acquisitions and a CEO who has proven very adapt at acquiring companies and allocating capital. They wouldn't be buying back shares unless they thought shares were significantly undervalued.

    Second, earlier this month, ALJJ refinanced all of their debt at rates significantly lower than their old debt. Not only will the lowered rates free up significant amounts of cash, enabling more acquisitions or buybacks, but banks wouldn't lend money so cheaply unless they thought there was significant value behind them, further reinforcing that the company has significant equity value.

    Finally, ALJJ announced Q3 earnings that saw continued good results from their Faneuil segment and great results from the new Carpets segment.

    All of these data points point to the company remaining significantly undervalued, and management has multiple levers to pull to continue to unlock value in the coming months.

    July update article- http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 16, 2014. 09:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Roman's New Initiatives Could Be Baking Up Some Profits [View article]
    The company out with a press release highlighting continued expansion in Q3.

    Non-traditional signed 14 new agreements and opened 15 locations during the quarter; slightly below the 16-19 mentioned in Q2 call but still very strong.

    Grocery stores signed 225, with 101 opening during quarter and the rest opening in October.

    Take n bake again a bit behind (my) expectations, with 7 locations sold during quarter and 1 opened. However, the press release says several will open during October. Will be interesting to see how many are opened when they do their Q3 conference call.

    Given these numbers, we should see very strong growth in Q4, and looks like the company is well on pace to hit the guidance provided at their annual meeting.

    http://yhoo.it/1uskrFL
    Oct 6, 2014. 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HC2's Deal Making Offers Significant Upside [View article]
    Appreciate it Stephen, thank you.
    Oct 3, 2014. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HC2's Deal Making Offers Significant Upside [View article]
    I'm only valuing the NOLs that are not subject to limitation under section 382, so the change of control should not affect them.
    Sep 4, 2014. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Roman's New Initiatives Could Be Baking Up Some Profits [View article]
    If you go through the call, they actually detail why the stores closed. I'm reasonably satisfied with the answers, though the closures are obviously a negative that hadn't been revealed when the article published (neither had all of the new store sign ups though!)

    you're right on the lack of binding, but I think the major new chain openings discussed on the call (assuming those are what you're referring to) would be a huge cherry on top to the thesis.
    Aug 13, 2014. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Roman's New Initiatives Could Be Baking Up Some Profits [View article]
    I agree with Marcel. It's tough to argue there's no demand when there's a chain with 1400 locations. If you go through the Papa Murphy's S-1, there's actually a lot of information in there that shows consumers love the concept. I personally really enjoy it. I don't think you can really compare to frozen pizza, which aren't as tasty and don't allow you to pick your own toppings.
    Aug 13, 2014. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Roman's New Initiatives Could Be Baking Up Some Profits [View article]
    I'm well aware of FRSH's issues; I don't think it's as big a concern here. These are all new franchisees, and if you listen to yesterday's earnings call, the company is very focused on making sure they are signing up high quality franchisees with a good shot of success. Also, the initial cost is lower here, so the breakeven is lower as well. Hope that helps.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 12, 2014. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IDT's Hidden Value Should Call To Value Investors [View article]
    Both
    Jun 26, 2014. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IDT's Hidden Value Should Call To Value Investors [View article]
    He's still the Chair, but his son is now CEO.
    Jun 25, 2014. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • USA Truck: Market Giving Little Credit To Potential Turnaround And Hard Asset Value [View article]
    Excellent piece. Thanks for sharing.
    Jun 18, 2014. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greystone Logistics Appears Poised For A Major Merger [View article]
    Great piece, and excellent investigative work
    Jun 17, 2014. 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
182 Comments
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