American Greetings Waiting To Greet A Higher Bid [View article]
I would disagree. With AUTO, the board already had the vote locked up. The question was if someone could come in and sway one of the majority holders and/or compel a competing bidder. Unfortunately, it didn't happen, and mgmt was able to steal the company (though I believe some investors went with appraisal rights, which should work out well)
With AM, mgmt's stake doesn't count in the vote. If an activist gets involved, this bid would need to be raised. The path dependency is what really interests me.
The math for CONN's is roughly correct. The shares were certainly trading way below $5, I had actually written them up on the blog a few times (unfortunately, never invested).
I disagree slightly on the rights. Greenblatt did specifically mention to pay attention to spinoff rights, but i think he , in general, meant to pay attention to insider incentives in any rights or special situation
Stock prices don't drop post rights exercise (short of selling pressure from rights being exercised and then sold). The new shares are already incorporated into the valuation as the rights have been announced long before.
As a check, consider this- if the share price would drop simply because of rights being exercised, there would be a ridiculous arbitrage opp- short now, cover post exercise. It simply doesn't exist.
Haha thanks Chris. Would I want to put my entire portfolio in it? Absolutely not. But as a decently sized risk / reward opportunity, I think it makes a ton of sense.
Cooper's Warrants: Free Play On Leveraged Upside [View article]
I thought you'd like this one. The risk reward of buying warrants / shorting common seems like it would be outstanding IF you could find some stock to short.
Autoinfo: Proxy Statement Reveals Buyout Full Of Holes; Higher Bid Likely? [View article]
I agree with Chris. As I noted in an article today (linked below), this deal is by no means done. Two major holders representing 15% of shares acquired their stock basically at or above deal prices, and there are two other block shareholders who together could reject this deal. In the end, management may be forced to raise their offer if they want to see this deal go through
Outdoor Media: A Bidding War In The Making [View article]
Hey Thomas,
I think there are a lot of holes to using EBITDA here.
Channels generally trade on a per sub basis because tere are quite a good deal of synergies between them.
In addition, EBITDA is dragged down by advertising expense for growing the channels in the past year. OUTD is also hitting an inflection point where future sub growth should fall basically straight through to the bottom line. Overall, I'd say the high ebitda multiple isn't really a concern.
However, after extensive talks with several brokers, most retail investors will probably have trouble buying and tendering today or tmr. For example, etrade is telling me shares need to have been purchased yesterday to even have a shot at getting them tendered, and will only guarantee tender for people who had purchased by tuesday. Just a warning for potential investors!
Asta Funding - Buying Debt For Cents On The Dollar [View article]
Nice article, I agree ASFI is significantly undervalued at today's prices
I've done a series of 4 or so posts on Asta, which you can find on my site here - http://bit.ly/undmos. I think I've covered a few things you've missed, including their significant of balance sheet assets in the form of their zero basis portfolio.
American Greetings Waiting To Greet A Higher Bid [View article]
With AM, mgmt's stake doesn't count in the vote. If an activist gets involved, this bid would need to be raised. The path dependency is what really interests me.
Cache Offers Huge Value [View article]
I disagree slightly on the rights. Greenblatt did specifically mention to pay attention to spinoff rights, but i think he , in general, meant to pay attention to insider incentives in any rights or special situation
Cache Offers Huge Value [View article]
Cache Offers Huge Value [View article]
As a check, consider this- if the share price would drop simply because of rights being exercised, there would be a ridiculous arbitrage opp- short now, cover post exercise. It simply doesn't exist.
Cache Offers Huge Value [View article]
Supervalu's Buyout Highlights Weis Markets' Leverage [View article]
Cooper's Warrants: Free Play On Leveraged Upside [View article]
Supervalu's Buyout Highlights Weis Markets' Leverage [View article]
Outdoor Media: A Bidding War In The Making [View article]
http://bit.ly/13jsZ6h
Autoinfo: Proxy Statement Reveals Buyout Full Of Holes; Higher Bid Likely? [View article]
http://bit.ly/WBtL9y
Outdoor Media: A Bidding War In The Making [View article]
I think there are a lot of holes to using EBITDA here.
Channels generally trade on a per sub basis because tere are quite a good deal of synergies between them.
In addition, EBITDA is dragged down by advertising expense for growing the channels in the past year. OUTD is also hitting an inflection point where future sub growth should fall basically straight through to the bottom line. Overall, I'd say the high ebitda multiple isn't really a concern.
Crawford & Company: A Risk-Free Profit Opportunity [View article]
I Got 99 Problems But A Proration Ain't One: Exploiting A Loophole In The PPG-GGC Exchange Offer For Fun And Profit [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
I Got 99 Problems But A Proration Ain't One: Exploiting A Loophole In The PPG-GGC Exchange Offer For Fun And Profit [View article]
Love the idea (and written it up as well! http://bit.ly/14dQVEM)
However, after extensive talks with several brokers, most retail investors will probably have trouble buying and tendering today or tmr. For example, etrade is telling me shares need to have been purchased yesterday to even have a shot at getting them tendered, and will only guarantee tender for people who had purchased by tuesday. Just a warning for potential investors!
Asta Funding - Buying Debt For Cents On The Dollar [View article]
I've done a series of 4 or so posts on Asta, which you can find on my site here - http://bit.ly/undmos. I think I've covered a few things you've missed, including their significant of balance sheet assets in the form of their zero basis portfolio.