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Wildebeest

 
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  • Can the Fed Control Core Inflation? [View article]
    In a closed economy -- which is what they *explicitly* discussed, and what you reproduced from John -- there is no X and M.

    Further into the article they introduce global trade. So where are the equations that do not balance? It might be more useful to actually list them rather than keep us guessing.

    ...and what was your S doesn't equal I point about?
    Apr 22, 2012. 11:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can the Fed Control Core Inflation? [View article]
    "None of the equations in "Money and Trading 101" balance!!!!"

    I just read Johns link. The equations are *definitions* of GDP in a closed economy.

    GDP = C + I + G

    GDP = C + S + T

    what is your basis for saying these equations don't balance? How do you define GDP?

    "S doesn't equal I"

    I didn't notice anything in the article that said S = I.
    Apr 22, 2012. 07:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto: New Ivanhoe Project Will Drive Stock Higher [View article]
    "...in this case, it has helped to keep prices higher than they would be as demand is also falling, especially in China, which has been a major buyer until now"

    Imports of iron ore by China last quarter were up by ~8% year on year.

    Additionally both Rio and BHP have publicly stated in the last 4-6 weeks that they expect demand to continue to grow.
    Apr 22, 2012. 02:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In a relatively brief (23 min.) and somewhat wonkish presentation, economist Steve Keen continues his assault on Paul Krugman and neoclassical economics. Keen says economists' obsession with public debt is a mistake, and that only private debt - whose bubble has yet to burst - matters.  [View news story]
    WTF!

    And if interest rates are zero then an infinite amount of debt is serviceable. Would that make infinite debt advisable?
    Apr 21, 2012. 08:23 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mark-To-Market: From David Hume To Adam Smith ... From Ludwig Von Mises To Hiroshima [View article]
    His point was about expansion of money supply in a gold system.
    Apr 20, 2012. 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On The Chinese Residential Real Estate Market [View article]
    "Yes, it will happen at some point. "

    thanks for your insight. :)
    Apr 20, 2012. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On The Chinese Residential Real Estate Market [View article]
    I'll try again:

    2 b) So does that mean that this increased local product which is growing faster than steel production will mean imports are reduced -- I mean if they are substitutable and local production is growing faster than local needs that will happen right?
    Apr 20, 2012. 02:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On The Chinese Residential Real Estate Market [View article]
    "Yes, the local product can substitute imports, but you can't compare the tonnage directly because of the lower grades. "

    As you know I was asking specifically about processed beneficiated magnetite not the raw dirt out of the ground. I find it interesting that you think beneficiated magnetite is replacing, or will replace, or can replace DSO use by steel mills?

    So when a mill runs down its stock of DSO it just shovels in beneficiated magnetite??

    Is there some reason why you won't answer 2b?
    Apr 19, 2012. 10:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On The Chinese Residential Real Estate Market [View article]
    "But in overall terms, they aren't mining ore in China to build piles of it. It gets used, and it displaces other ores."

    So you think beneficiated magnetite is replacing, or will replace, DSO use by steel mills?

    ...interesting.

    Still would like an answer to 2b though. You wrote "2b" in your comment but it avoids what I specifically asked you above.
    Apr 19, 2012. 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On The Chinese Residential Real Estate Market [View article]
    $35 is a bit dated but thats ok because my point is about the upper bounds.

    How long a $140 producer keeps producing at a loss clearly depends on the magnitude of the loss. e.g. if they receive $130 then they can "last" longer than if the price is $50.

    As I have commented before your doomsday scenario for iron ore lacks internal consistency.

    ...can you answer 2 and 2b above?
    Apr 19, 2012. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On The Chinese Residential Real Estate Market [View article]
    okay let me try and make the question a bit clearer for you because I would like an answer.

    1) what is the typical cash cost of this new chinese production that you have mentioned in your article. How long will they continue to produce if the price is below this level?
    Apr 19, 2012. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On The Chinese Residential Real Estate Market [View article]
    2) So you believe that a steel mill that uses DSO from Australia or Brazil in their furnaces can stop using that imported ore and switch to the local stuff after beneficiation...and vica versa?

    2 b) So does that mean that this increased local product which is growing faster than steel production will mean imports are reduced -- I mean if they are substitutable and local production is growing faster than local needs that will happen right?
    Apr 19, 2012. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On The Chinese Residential Real Estate Market [View article]
    1) It was a simple question but a rambling answer. Are you saying that chinese miners are producing at a loss? If not then who exactly is going to "continue producing at a loss" "early in this kind of situation".

    ...and what kind of situation are you referring to. I've only asked a simple question about cash cost not about situations.

    ==========

    but as part of your non answer to my question you talk about capacity leaving in 1-2 years if the price doesn't recover. What is the price going to drop to such that capacity leaves? At the moment the price is 3 times cash coast. What price is required to stop capacity leaving?
    Apr 19, 2012. 01:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On The Chinese Residential Real Estate Market [View article]
    2) So you believe that a steel mill that uses DSO from Australia or Brazil in their furnaces can stop using that imported ore and switch to the local stuff ...and vica versa?
    Apr 19, 2012. 01:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update On The Chinese Residential Real Estate Market [View article]
    "Sure, these are usually (but not always) less valuable, lower grades of iron ore. Still, they get turned into steel and should displace imports to some extent"

    Q1. What is the typical cash cost of this new Chinese production?

    Q2. What is the basis for believing that this chinese product competes with imports?
    Apr 18, 2012. 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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