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Wildebeest

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  • Buy BHP Billiton For Dividend Income Today And Profit Tomorrow [View article]
    maybe we read different analyst reports. in iron ore they were consistently later than miners to recognize historically high prices and have been late again in correcting projections.

    And to digress, in copper they (analysts) have been pathetic quite frankly in predicting supply/demand balances.

    I can think of only one area where analysts have embarrassed major miners(s) with superior predictions and that is aluminum.
    Mar 22 06:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy BHP Billiton For Dividend Income Today And Profit Tomorrow [View article]
    Point taken, and there have been some big mining blunders in the recent past as evidence (Rio) but I think you are too dismissive by referring to miners being good at geology etc. BHP has a market cap of a couple of hundred billion. You need to be good at more than geology to run a business that size.

    BHP haven't said they see demand softening. That is my point. Bears and the press have attributed this to BHP but they never said it. They said explicitly -- and the presentation is available for download -- that they see seaborn iron ore demand increasing and on that basis are proceeding with a $15 capex spend to expand their port facilities.

    The confusion in the press comes about for two reasons:

    firstly, you apparently to not need to know the difference between demand and growth in demand to be a reporter.

    secondly, the timelines/attention span of analysts is measured in days, weeks or maybe one quarter for "long term" thinkers. BHP are projecting out to 2025. While you are correct that projections are right or wrong these are not idle sound bites at a conference these are explanations for multi billion dollar capex spending.

    A correct headline for what was presented would be "BHP invests heavily due to increasing demand from China"

    We can argue whether or not their projections are correct, but the point is they are putting the capex behind those projections.
    Mar 21 02:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy BHP Billiton For Dividend Income Today And Profit Tomorrow [View article]
    The sound bites from the Perth conference seem to have been misinterpreted by many. The headline was all about flattening but in fact they see growth flattening but growth nevertheless and project an expansion of seaborn iron ore. Flat growth still means increased volumes. The mood among miners by all accounts (i.e. from people there rather than press) was very bouyant.
    Mar 21 02:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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