William Ellard

Implementing Pickens' Plan for Public Energy Policy

Hi Bill;
Check out tesla motors:
www.teslamotors.com/

0-60mph in 3.9 seconds. The torque from the electric engine is much higher. Trucks can run on an electric engine imho, if not then lets us biodiesel or synthetic bio from CTL, etc...

If anyone can show us why non-oil based engines can't work for big rigs - please post some info or links....I know diesel fuel can come from non-oil feed stocks....

Commercial Metals Earnings and the Domestic Steel Market

"With Oil prices likely to keep surging, it is very important to note that will stifile economic expansion and, therefore, eat away the demand for steel."

Tibis;
I actually do not agree with this. Higher oil prices are a sign of a strong global economy, hence strong demand for steel. Like I posted in the article, CMC is expanding so it can ship overseas and make more money - If US demand falls, CMC would shift that supply overseas and make better margins.

If oil prices cause the global economy to fall, then oil will fall also.....

Commercial Metals Earnings and the Domestic Steel Market

"What is you opinion on the penalty tariffs recently cleared by the U.S Int'l Trade commission "for circular welded pipe"? Is this a trend?"

Steel;
I think that global economics are already dealing with this issue. But it is good to see the steel firms standing up against dumping. My main concern in the past has been that many countries subsidize energy to the point that its cheap to make steel products, and hence easy to dump into the US...

Peak Oil Stocks for the Future

Hi surgcare;
I guess you did not read my article. And take your personel attacks elsewhere. A move to non-oil powered vehicles like electric, is important since we would be using our own energy, NG, coal, solar, etc...vs sending 600B of US $$ overseas. So you like sending all this money and GDP outside the US?

Also the economic and security issues are very important. With our current addiction to oil, If Iran, or a large middle eastern war, could shut down Suadi oil, what do you think would happen to Oil price and more impotantly - supply. How would you like rationing?

Lets us the electric grid. Coal and NG powered cars would also be much cheaper, and create US jobs...Electric engines are not free energy - it would come from US coal and Natural gas and cost consumers less than current gasoline...

Peak Oil Stocks for the Future

Monk;
If we move vehicles off of oil, we will no longer need middle eastern oil. For me this is oil independence. We will still get oil from Canada, and Mexico(#1, and #3 importers). We will still need oil and NG, and we should continue to explore and dig.

Peak Oil Stocks for the Future

Global Warming;
My article does not suggest at all that we should not drill in ANWR for environmental reasons. My reasons are purely economics - it does not make sense IMHO. We should drill in the lower 48, and coast as we have all the infrastructure already.

If the US does not get a comprehensive energy policy - economics will do the job - but in a more painful way. We need to raise the price of energy from oil, to the point were the US demands 20-30% less of it.

Since the demand curve is very inelastic - the price at the pump may need to go up much more than 30%. This will not take decades - one way or another, the US can not economically use this much oil. We can not drill our way out of this problem....

Peak Oil Stocks for the Future

Oilsupply and Shag;
I was hoping for responses, maybe not barf-age! Thanks for your opinion, and I do agree with continuing to drill. Yes I am an environmentalist, but also a capitalist pig. I own CHK, and many oil firms, drillers, refiners, etc....Greed and drilling is good, and can be done in an environmental safe way.

My personal view as stated in the article about ANWR, is that it just does not make economic sense. Lets drill our coastal waters were the infrastructure already exist.

I would have to respectfully disagree on how long it will take for the US to move away from oil based combustion engines as the main source of automotive power. If we just shift the income tax to gas taxes(net would be less total taxes), and create the proper economic incentives for new technology - The US will respond with greed, and US economic activity would thrive IMHO. If the US auto fleet just moved to clean diesel technology, we would not need middle eastern oil.

Peak Oil Stocks for the Future

Hi Brahm;
Thanks for your input. My article is based on the science of economics. My original degree was in marine biology(unfinished), and my overall background in the sciences are sound, but not up to your level.

I have researched technologies heavily over the past 5 years including CTL and the FT processes. My current view is that we need pollution taxes on NOx, SOx, and mercury. I am not so sure on CO2. So unless CTL can be done without a pollution reduction, then it will not work for me. Can CTL be done without increased pollution? You would know better than I, but I think at the right price it could be. The efficiency issues are important, but the US needs a viable alternative away from oil based vehicle transport. What power source do you think is best for out auto, and truck fleet.

I think developing plug in, and fast charge electric vehicles would be the best solution, Since we could manage energy, and pollution from much fewer power points - the grid, now we have millions of little inefficient power plants driving all over the place!.Then we could just tax pollution and let economics decide which is the correct energy for the future. When the government picks the winners(Ethanol) with subsidies, everyone losses IMHO.

I am getting ready to start a web site on energy economics, and future policy decision needed to move the US into the future. Your input would great to have. e-mail me if you the time at [e-mail].

regards;

William Ellard

Peak Oil Stocks for the Future

"economic destruction, job losses"

Actually you are incorrect. High oil prices increase US GDP and economic activity.
This is the chart of crude oil prices and real GDP for the past 10 years:

============== oil===================...
Year==oil ====Price inc.===real GDP growth
----------------------...
1998== $11.91
1999== $16.56===+39%===== 4.5%
2000== $27.39===+65%===== 3.7%
2001== $23.00=== -17%==== 1%
2002== $22.81===-1%===== 1.6%
2003== $27.69===21%===== 2.5%
2004== $37.66===36%===== 3.6%
2005== $50.04===32%===== 3.1%
2006== $58.30===17%===== 2.9%
2007== $64.20===10%===== 2.2%

As one can see, there is no negative correlation between oil price increases and real GDP changes. If fact the data shows a positive correlation. The years with highest oil price increase - 1999, 2000,2004,2005 had the highest real GDP growth - well above normal.

Conversly the years with negative oil price changes 2001, 2002 - had the weakest growth.

The reasons are simple - with increases in prices, drilling and exploring activity increases big time - creating jobs and higher GDP. Also alternatives start to get funded, creating more jobs.

If you think oil independence is important for national and economic security as I do - the only fix is higher, higher prices for all oil related products - the main one being gas at the pump.

Steel Stocks: Update from Recent Earnings

I still really like the internationals also: PKX, GGB, MT, etc..., but I think the domestics are better valuations right now. Its not just the weak dollar per say, its global inflation helping the domestics. Coking coal, and coal prices are running 30% higher internationally vs the US. Also with energy prices soo high, imports into the US are drying up.

US steel inventories are also very very low - another factor for better future cash flows from domestics vs intl....

Reviewing Chesapeake's Strong Quarter: Pre-Call Notes

Harry;
Its very simple - If firms can not charge a high enough price to cover the extraction of the hydrocarbon + profit, they will stop extracting. This means supply decrease - and with demand about the same - prices rise back to economic balance.

Oil is still priced is dollars, and with the dollar being weak, some impact on oil prices is expected - CHK is a NG firm, not oil. NG and oil is getting more expensive to extract, therefor the prices have risen even though demand has not jumped too much.

Reviewing Chesapeake's Strong Quarter: Pre-Call Notes

Harry;
I am confused, what are you getting at? CHK just reported huge eps, and huge positive cash flow - that means they current are receiving large spreads between ng costs per mcfe, and sales price per mcfe.

As the $$$ to extract kerogen from the earth increases, so will the price to those that need that particular hydrocarbon. Are you trying to say that the cost for CHK to extract their reserves will soon be more than they can charge for the NG? This is not really mathematically possible - its simple supply/demand economics....

Reviewing Chesapeake's Strong Quarter: Pre-Call Notes

Zman;
Thanks for the update. I will post my CHK blog on my CAPS page(bellard) after I listen to the CC. The one aspect that confuses investors is the gain or loss from CHK hedging program. I focus on cash flow analysis, so GAAP numbers are not very important to me. How should an investor look at the complex hedges? I buy puts on equities/indexes as a hedge/insurance for my long portfolio. Could we think of CHK hedges in a similar way? I mean CHK has already PAID for the hedge in prior period cash? No future cash flow impact?

Just curious on your take on the hedging program. Good write up.

California's Fuel-Efficiency Battle and Peak Oil

Hi Fitz;
I am also a believer of the peak oil concept. My view is the only quick way to tackle the energy/pollution issues is thru a change in the US's federal taxing system. Read this blog I posted on my fool.com CAPS page:


caps.fool.com/Blogs/Vi...

I also spend quite a bit of time fly-fishing in the mountains of Colorado......

E*Trade: Primed To Turn Around?

Solid article Cindy!
I am still analyzing E*Trades results, but my first read is very positive. If one backs out the large non-recurring charges, and other positive, negative one time hits - I come up with ETFC earnings over .19 a share this Q. And remember that DART's were up 12% from last years Q, were they earned .39 - so normalized earnings will be back over .40 per Q, once ETFC unwinds its foolish position of being a mortgage reit. This will take a few years, but the market will see these trends and ramp the stock price up. I fully agree the price now should be higher than the BK scare of last November.

Bill