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William J. McKibbin

 
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  • No Tapering Yet: An Assessment Of What Bernanke Really Said [View article]
    Clearly, Dr Bernanke and his Fed brethren have no intentions of cutting QE until after unemployment drops well below its current rate (as in a decline to below 5%) -- hence, any future prediction of Fed tapering by an analyst that does not warrant that claim with demonstrable evidence of improvement in the employment situation is conjecture at best, and perhaps an admission of incompetence -- future predictions about tapering by analysts should include demonstrable evidence about how unemployment has declined by at least a couple of percentage points, and that the decline has been sustained over a number of quarters -- the reality is that unemployment has not yet declined to pre-economic crisis norms, which means that any implication that the Fed will taper is logically unfounded, if not delusional -- I believe that Dr Bernanke and his crew mean what they say -- QE will continue full power, forever, or until unemployment declines to pre-economic crisis norms (i.e., <5%) over several quarters (i.e., 3 full quarters) -- that's the deal, and those calling for tapering should acknowledge this reality before hazarding future predictions about Fed tapering.
    Sep 19, 2013. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Do You Believe? [View article]
    Whether we in the US like it or not, the ECB has decided our fate here in the US -- what happened in the EU last week was simply a stage play without applause -- ECB Pres Dr Mario Draghi said what he meant, and meant what he said about not bailing out the Eurozone -- more at:

    http://bit.ly/sLmBTg

    The net result is that Southern Europe is on its own at this point, which means that Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain will have no recourse but to cut government spending by upwards of 40%, even if they drop the Euro -- the monetary game is over in Europe -- the human suffering has only just begun.

    As for the US, the effects of the ECB's actions will hammer investors holding Euro-denominated investments -- the end result will be the resumption of recession at best, and more likely, depression as global economic activity abates and commodity values plummet -- the potential for economic depression in the US is now very real.

    The showcase event will be California, where Gov Jerry Brown will be announcing $2.5 billion in cuts later this week, and will be confronted with the reality of another $10 billion in cuts next year -- California will soon become the center of fiscal and monetary policy attentions as the state begins to face the reality of laying off upwards of 40% of its public workforce -- riots will breakout in cities and towns as public employee unions begin to fight back -- anyone living in California may want to make plans for a temporary residence outside of the state for several years, or until economic stablility is restored.

    I maintain that monetary expansion is still imminent -- that's history -- but, the US economy will have to take a detour over the next few years into severe recession, or more likely, economic depression, in route to the future -- be sure to keep guns in your home to defend yourself in the meantime...
    Dec 12, 2011. 10:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Move To Cash? [View article]
    Now is not the time to go to cash -- those who have not moved to cash already are way too late -- now is the time to buy into declining stock prices and real estate -- avoid cash at this point...
    Nov 27, 2011. 11:18 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dangers of a Treasury Downgrade [View article]
    Any chance that Obama and Boehner were on the golf course several weeks ago coordinating an elaborate choreography leading to a default...? Let's face it, Plan A: Austerity (i.e., spending cuts and/or tax increases) has failed. That leads to Plan B: Default. Of course, if a default fails to happen, the US can still implement Plan C: Monetary Expansion (i.e., QEIII of $3-5 trillion). We live in interesting times...
    Jul 26, 2011. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Market Sees Very Weak Growth, Higher Inflation [View article]
    The bond markets foretell the future -- the US is likely to suffer an economic shock in the near future (a US and/or California default come to mind -- a default across the European southern flank is also a candidate) that will dramatically change the monetary and fiscal situation overnight -- QEIII of $3-5 trillion over the next several years will follow soon thereafter -- an income tax holiday for wage earners earning less than $250,000 annually is also likely -- however, a horrific depression is likely to descend upon America before the end of the year or early next year -- government employees at all levels are likely to be standing in soup kitchen lines across America -- beware of government bonds, but invest defensively into dividend paying stocks and rent paying real estate -- I am not a precious metals advocate, but if you already hold some gold/silver, then retain those holdings until interest rates begin to rise -- note that gold hit $1,600/oz today -- hard times are coming and I am not kidding when I urge Americans to take care of their own as events unfold...
    Jul 18, 2011. 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How the Employment Situation Is Actually Continuing to Improve [View article]
    The US employment to population ratio was down again in May 2011 from year ago -- more at:

    wjmc.blogspot.com/2011...

    Many economists believe that reporting the number employed as a percentage of the civilian population provides a more accurate description of the current state of employment than conjecturing the number of "unemployed" in a population.
    Jun 3, 2011. 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Moderate Case of Market Jitters [View article]
    The Federal Reserve would be wise to announce a $3-5 trillion QEIII plan immediately -- the effects of such an announcement would be spectacular for the markets, and the Fed can always curtail QEIII well ahead of the target amount once the economy turns around -- QEIII appears imminent and quite necessary at this point...
    Jun 1, 2011. 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Will Default, The Only Question Is by How Much [View article]
    The choice always was about the EU "printing money" to bailout Greece, or letting Greece default -- looks like the default path is your take on the future -- here's a harder question: what happens when California hits the same wall...?
    Apr 22, 2011. 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pulse of Commerce Index Still Looks Healthy [View article]
    A public mandate for either spending cuts and/or tax increases (as in $300 billion plus annually) is unlikely to happen -- that's the nature of democracy -- conversely, inflation requires no public discussions, no Congressional debate, no public referendums, and no Presidential leadership -- that's the nature of inflation -- Americans who have not yet prepared for the coming inflation may already be lost...
    Apr 13, 2011. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Report Stronger Than Expected [View article]
    The US employment to population ratio continued to disappoint -- more at:

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

    The US employment situation has been in steep decline since 2000.
    Apr 2, 2011. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Labor Market: Miners on the March [View article]
    Mining is on the pickup globally -- Americans who are unemployed today will likely never work again in the US, which means emigrating to foreign countries with their families in order to make a new life -- here's link to a global mining recruiting website -- you will find plenty of mining jobs in Africa for example:

    www.mining-recruitment...

    Thank you for the opportunity to comment...
    Mar 31, 2011. 09:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Layoffs Declining Rapidly, New Hiring to Follow [View article]
    However, the US employment to population ratio continues to stagnate -- more at:

    wjmc.blogspot.com/2011...

    The US is leveraging unemployment in order to generate growth and to keep inflation in check...
    Mar 4, 2011. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disappointing Jobs Numbers, Considering Rate of Private Sector Job Growth [View article]
    The US Employment to Population Ratio is continuing to stagnate as well -- more at:

    wjmc.blogspot.com/2011...

    The US is leveraging unemployment to generate growth and to hold inflation in check..
    Mar 4, 2011. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities: Onward and Upward [View article]
    We still do not have any evidence (other than circumstantial) that QE2 is driving up commodity prices globally. My own hypothesis would be that global demand (e.g., from Asia) is pushing up commodity prices, but I need more information (which will likely be coming later this year) before I reach conclusions. However, accusing QE2 of driving up global commodity prices is premature.

    Also, rising commodity prices is also indicative of inflation (which the world could use more of right now). Inflation suggests that demand is up, and the lack of demand is what caused all of our economic problems to begin with.

    Finally, I continue to believe that the only viable way forward for the world, is via some form of inflation, whereby the public debt is deflated via the inflation mechanism itself. Additionally, inflation can rout government entitlements and public salaries with great ease, and without the need for a public mandate or negotiations with union leaders (pay and entitlement freezes will do the job that negotiators and legislators cannot).

    For more about my views regarding an inflationary recovery path for the national debt, go to:

    wjmc.blogspot.com/2010...

    Inflation hurts lenders, which is fine with me, especially given the usury practices (e.g., 29% interest and outrageous bank fees) at leading banks these days. Everyone thinks that if the banks get hurt, the world will stop -- far from it -- when the "too big to fail" banks crash, other startup banks will step right in.

    Let's hear it for commodity inflation -- the more the better...

    PS: Regional banks are a bargain right now in the secondary market.

    PPS: If bond investors lose their money in bonds, so what -- the future of the world is at stake and the sacrifices of a few rich people and companies is a small price to pay for a more stable world.

    PPPS: I can hear everyone's comments now -- inflation leads to disaster -- I do not recall any disasters between 1973 and 1983 when the US experienced an 85% aggregate inflation.

    PPPPS: I don't own any bonds right now -- only dividend paying equities and rent paying real estate -- for those in bonds, my advice is to get out before it is too late...
    Feb 14, 2011. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1.2 Million Americans Quit Seeking Work Since November 2010 [View article]
    The US employment to population ratio continued to plunge in January 2011 — more at:

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

    Many economists believe that reporting the number employed as a percentage of the civilian population provides a more accurate description of the current state of employment than conjecturing the number of “unemployed” in a population. The US employment to population ratio reached a historical peak of 64.4% on an annual basis in 2000.
    Feb 6, 2011. 10:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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