William James

William James
Contributor since: 2013
HV - Appreciate your suggestions. Cheers, Wm
HV,
You were correct and I was wrong. Thanks for the lively debate on Spyglass but I did want to acknowledge your analysis was correct. I sold the last of my holding a while back. It was profitable for me, but not a good investment. Regards, William
I make no comment about Angie's List from an investment perspective, since I have never looked at it. However, I have used the service for a couple of years and have found it helpful and well worth the money. I have looked at other free review sites and find them completely lacking.
Reviews from people who use service providers are very helpful and using the site to obtain competitive quotes from service providers who know you will be posting your own review helps the consumer get good quality work at the best possible price.
Articles that only mention cons without covering pros are inherently suspect.
PGH just announced a doubling of reserves at Lindbergh and an increase in NAV (Lindbergh) of $2.05 per share, which is very good news and has not been reflected in any meaningful move in share price. For the SP to jump from here I think we have to wait for the first quarter of 2015 when Lindbergh begins to come on stream. I am currently up 46% on my PGH investment (excluding dividend income) so am pretty happy with progress so far.
I am not sure what lsuavecito's basis for bashing the stock is, but I respectfully disagree with his thoughtful conclusions...
Earlier in the year I trimmed my holding but still have about 25% left, which I am going to hang onto for the time being. I think the macro picture with oil prices (and nat. gas) and instability in the ME is the bigger issue here, which will drive the price of many Canadian oil assets higher, including Spyglass.
Indeed, but the basket did just become a lot more valuable. Shares up 4.5% currently and for patient investors the increase in NAV and move towards Lindbergh production next year will push the SP higher still.
I think your criticism is fair to a point in terms of past performance but I don't agree regarding Pengrowth's Lindbergh plan and current execution, which has been pretty good (sole exception is some cost overrun). If oil prices hold steady I think Pengrowth will do well and will be increasingly attractive as Lindbergh production starts to come online.
Agreed, a good pick. There are certainly a few, but for those interested in dividend income not that many. However, there are none that I am aware of that will match Pengrowth's growth in FFO by 2018 if they execute well on Lindbergh.
Well I am currently up 38% on it, not counting the dividend return, so I don't agree. Yes, I understand you lost money before but what has that got to do with Pengrowth now...
Please share these "better selections this side of the border" oh wise one, which can provide a decent dividend and a good plan for growing FFO.
Well for those of us who bought in the $4 range it is doing very well. For longer term holders I understand that it has not been easy, but that can also be said of many of the former Canroys.
Current execution by management has been pretty good in my view and I appreciate the strong support of the monthly dividend.
Interestingly there is still strong insider buying also. I also think improved natural gas pricing is going to help. In the meantime I am happy to keep collecting the dividend.
Sheeple - you are correct that the best time to buy Zargon was when it was in the 6's a year ago and a number of people missed that boat. Markus Arnio noted the insider purchases which got me looking at it. I have purchased when it dips under 7 - which it still does from time to time and which it did prior to this current article. It mysteriously jumped up into the 8's for a short time a while ago and I sold a few.
Many times these small stocks will get a bump from an article, but the bump does not necessarily last. My suggestion is to do your own evaluation of Zargon and watch for the price to drop back down to near the 7 dollar range and then think about purchasing, or not as you choose.
However, I do agree with the thesis of the article. In the long run I think this will do well from ASP and low cost production gains.
Well it really depends upon your definition of clean power. I think that the majority of rational thinkers would think that 39% from renewables and 29% from natural gas is pretty reasonable and allows Atlantic Power to correctly claim to be a clean power generator.
On the other hand they have lied consistently about the sustainability of their dividend, which is a completely different matter and for that reason I would not touch the company with a ten foot pole.
I have been in Zargon for a while and note if you look at the big production gains from ASP (assuming it works as planned) are yet to come. It is the low cost increase in oil production that will drive the share price, IMO. In the meantime you have a well managed company that pays an excellent monthly dividend yield that is strongly supported by management.
Very thorough and well researched article - as usual! - Value Digger. Congratulations on being picked as a SA top idea.
Execution by management has been flawless so far and once Lindbergh begins to produce in Q1, 2015 we will begin to see significant increases in flow of funds from operations. One of my top positions.
Markcc - you could be correct on the short term direction of oil prices but the marginal cost of production of most shale is high and a low price environment would act to reduce production and supply, thereby slowing of stopping further development of U.S. supplies.
In my view it is not about how much available oil there is in the ground - it is much more a question of how expensive it is to produce what is left and most shale oil is pretty expensive with high decline rates.
Determining the short term outlook for oil is difficult and can be impacted by many variables. However the long term direction is equally clear - world population increasing dramatically and gasoline is the only economically viable transportation fuel - so oil will become more expensive.
just4today, if you think fuel prices are high here, you should try shopping for gas pretty much anywhere else in the world. I don't know of any serious industrialized nation that has prices as good as the United States.
Much of the inexpensive oil has been found and the remaining oil is of relatively lower quality and more expensive to obtain - requiring that the marginal price of oil remain high, so longer term I think it is unlikely that we will see a major drop in WTI pricing.
No the Canadian discount will remain, just less of a discount, in my view. Also, I think the WCS oil price will improve because heavy oil will be in relatively greater demand and less well supplied.
Canadian oil sells at a discount that has been caused in part by distribution bottlenecks. The reduction / elimination of bottlenecks improves the price received for Canadian oil. The spread between WCS and WTI has reduced as a result. Keystone XL would also help but is probably less important than it once was because alternatives, such as oil by rail, are already being extensively used.
We are still a net importer of oil, which we purchase at the world (Brent) price. If we can replace that higher priced oil with cheaper U.S. / Canadian oil at prices below Brent then there are widespread benefits.
There is a divergence between growing supply in the U.S. and tighter supply in the rest of the world plus a whole range of instability factors that provide support to Brent pricing. Some forecasters indicate the oil price will drop this year because of increases in supply and Iran coming back online, while others suggest that political instability and growing demand/demographics will keep prices high.
Forecasting oil prices is extremely difficult but I note that WTI and Brent have remained fairly rangebound and for all the talk of increased U.S. supply the WTI price has been very resilient.
The Fabian Society hold their meetings there.
That has been discussed for a number of years but not particularly seriously - no political will to do so. The more recent articles I have read talk about structural treaty reform (UK proposal) that may gain favor as the next crisis arrives.
You do have some nice railways... heavily state subsidized of course
Except that if you compare the approach taken in the U.S. (and U.K.) it has created growth, jobs and a recovery and the situation in Europe is a complete mess.
I just re-read the article in order to find the Euro bashing and couldn't find it. So you think things are going well in Italy and Spain do you... Perhaps you should ask 50% of Spanish youth (assuming they haven't left yet) how good it is.
Except that Weimar style inflation has been predicted in the U.S. for years and completely failed to arrive. Inflation is pretty mild given the massive stimulus.
Compare and contrast the approach in the U.S. to that of Europe. The U.S. printed to create recovery. Europe preached Germanic austerity (completely idiotic for the Southern bloc) and is still in the same mess.
Very well said Be Here Now.
When I am 71 (still quite a long ways off, assuming I make it) I expect that the vast majority of my money will be in stocks and that I will continue to generate excellent predictable income to supplement Social Security, pension, and income from real estate investments.
They had two properties posted for sale on their site - now there is one - strongly suggesting they removed the for sale sign because they reached a deal.
Energex, I agree completely on nat gas pricing. Will make a big difference.