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William Kabourek  

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  • Forget The Negative Chinese Sentiment, Cliffs Natural Resources Could Be One Of The Biggest Turnaround Stories This Year [View article]
    I agree with your premise and think CLF has a good shot at being a classic turnaround success. But it faces additional hurdles that the author doesn't discuss in depth.
    First, the potentially competitive Essar plant could change the competitive landscape even if not as efficient and doesn't produce the same quality pellets. A weak, wounded competitor is still a competitor and can affect contract renewal terms. Next, the Bloom Lake complex may be the savior of CLF as a good sale would put a sizable amount of money in Cliffs coffers that can be used to reduce debt. But, the same iron ore pricing and steel dumping affects potential buyers willingness to offer higher prices as well. Shutting it down and entering CCAA was the right move, I just hope the stars align for Cliffs and it moves for a decent amount of cash. The current war on coal presents the same situation for disposal of the coal properties. Lastly, I hope bankruptcy doesn't look easier and better as events develop. cliffs USIO remaining business is going to be a great one, its just how you get there. If asset sales and improving prices materialize the current shareholders will reap the benefits. If too many obstacles present themselves a restructuring could be the way it morphs. There is lots of debt and it can be bought cheap and the debt holders could become the new major stockholders. Management may have bought some shares, but those positions are likely only a modest percentage of their net worth and easily replaced with new options and incentives. I hope it doesn't move this direction and its 50-50 at this point.

    The wild card that could really help CLF turnaround for the current shareholders is the possibility of a DRI arrangement with a Nucor or the like. While expensive to construct, a contract would make a DRI plant financeable and profitable. It would not only replace any lost business from Essar, but would be a path to growth by doing business with the largest segment of the US steel industry.
    Oct 26, 2015. 09:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cliffs Natural Resources Will Drop Further [View article]
    Not a well researched, or thought out, article.
    Oct 20, 2015. 10:28 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: Here Comes Another Positive Catalyst [View article]
    Eman, why would you own shares of a company that you know so little about? Your questions are very basic and you should have had an opinion before any purchase.
    May 6, 2015. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Undervalued Large Cap Dividend Stocks Backed By Analysts [View article]
    undervalued dividend ideas? STD is in line for recapitalization because it is full of poor real estate loans, southern european government bonds, and inadequate reserves. France Tele has a payout ratio of 97%! How long can you maintain a dividend if you aren't maintaining the business with reinvestment. These two touts are irresponsible as dividend plays. Speculations OK, but not for dividend investors.
    Jun 9, 2012. 09:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will Become Of Sears Holdings After Latest Round Of Store Closings? [View article]
    Whoa Stone Fox. You neglected the A/P. A/P+STD & CMLTD basically equal inventory so there isn't going to be much fluff from that segment. Sears may resort to bankruptcy if they can't get their retailing act together. As far as Lampert's great real estate play, I don't think there is one. Most Sears outlets are in enclosed malls [ out of favor ] and K-Marts are small, and poorly sited, in relation to WalMarts. Real estate leases can't come due soon enough and that's where a BK could come in handy. That's not a prediction, but Sears is far from a company that is worry free.
    Dec 27, 2011. 01:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rising Coal Prices Will Create Opportunities For Investors [View article]
    Cloud Peak, CLD, is a PRB keeper at recent prices.
    Oct 12, 2011. 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why LinkedIn Is a Bubble, But JA Solar Is Not [View article]
    I'm long JASo and TAN, so I agree with the author. Also own an American solar-related company, PWER, Power-One. They don't make cells and modules like JASO, but the inverters that are necessary for solar energy to work in society. Valuation is slightly better than the chinese pv companies, but not much. If there is anything to worry about being Chinese solar panel manufacturer, you get with PWER American accounting standards and a 1/3 of the company that has been in the power solutions business for 30+ years.

    So, if you like the outlook for solar, but are worried about anything chinese, PWER is not as cheap, but nearly.
    Jun 1, 2011. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Cloud Looming Over Coal Stocks [View article]
    Excellent article. High priced acquisitions rarely play out and reserves don't equal earnings power. i heard all these same arguments from groupies of the aggregates industry. Vulcan Materials and Martin Marietta have struggled despite vast reserves and difficulties in permitting new properties. Caution is in order when pricing gets extended.
    May 25, 2011. 07:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Adding to My Power-One Position, Despite Losses [View article]
    A couple of thoughts in response to comments:
    The Gabelli manager that shorted PWER, according to articles, manges only $40MM! That isn't a 1st stringer. I hope he didn't put his trades on near his announcement date, because the easy money had been made already.

    While obviously not as important as knowing how the sales channel is going, it is antedotaly reassurring that PWER has 4 pages of professional job openings on their Careers page. If sales don't materialize, they may have found a use for some of their $200MM of cash as they don't appear to frozen by potential tariff changes and resultant impact on demand.

    My suggestion is if you believe in managements ability, buy some more as the share price is a bargain. If you are overly critical of the company's leadership, why would you stick around and risk further deterioration?
    Mar 13, 2011. 01:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Adding to My Power-One Position, Despite Losses [View article]
    All investors in downward spiraling stocks, myself included, clamor for announcements from management that will act like a magic bullet and send the share price upward. But shouldn't really be management's focus. I'd much rather the CEO concentrate on working thru any inventory glut, actually penetrate the US and China markets, continue to stay one step ahead of the competition technically. We're paying him, and his team, to build a great company, not to have a smoothly functioning stock price. So, it would be nice if something consoling came out of HQ, but I really want them focused on running the company. My leaps have an end date, but the other shares will benefit most if this company performs best for years.
    Mar 13, 2011. 11:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vulcan Materials: A Victim of Economic Conditions or Bad Decisions? [View article]
    Your 30 years of industry experience trumps my level of aggregates knowledge, but I still think the Baker's did a great job of selling and James a poor job of buying. 20 years after the Fl Rock acquisition that purchase may be celebrated as brilliant, but most VMC shareholders over the past several years probably aren't happy. The unfortunate thing is that many sold and won't be around for the benefits.
    Feb 11, 2011. 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vulcan Materials: A Victim of Economic Conditions or Bad Decisions? [View article]
    Neal, this past year VMC lost 100MM and paid out about 120MM in dividends. They have two tranches of long term debt on which they are paying over 10% interest! I can't comprehend why they are paying ANY dividend. Another questionable management issue. They already have too much debt, they don't need any more and a basic way to reduce debt is don't pay it out.

    MLM had a long time ceo that was always unloading boat loads of stock at the peak, but he ran a good company. I just thought that was a sign that he suspected that the market had gotten ahead of what was sustainable. Basically due to that I rode a short position nicely in the downturn. The old guy retire and I don't have an opinion on his replacement, but they have remained with a better balance sheet and operating results than vulcan. They're smaller, but still have a large geographic reach. If I were to buy, I'd prefer MLM.
    Feb 7, 2011. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vulcan Materials: A Victim of Economic Conditions or Bad Decisions? [View article]
    Successful businesses, besides good products, have excellent management. Management can either enhance the brand or reposition the company. I'm not impressed by the guys running VMC, nor Cemex for that matter. I have no doubt that building will return and aggregates companies will do well as they are almost monopolies due to permitting issues and freight concerns.

    If I were to buy one today I'd purchase MLM; better management same industry and still plenty of scale. But these aggregates operators were just an example. There are many copper, gold, silver, moly, iron ore, ree, and energy companies that are selling at near all time highs because they are riding high commodity prices and it doesn't look like it will end. But those prices are prompting many new projects and that will increase supply and when the world economy next stalls they will see a severe industry downturn, like aggregates. My suggestion is that one should own those types of miners that are avoiding big acquisitions and serious increases in debt.
    Feb 7, 2011. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rare Earth Stocks Are in a Bubble [View article]
    My posts receive much more exposure on Seeking Alpha than they do on this site. Consequently that's where I get the most feedback; usually of little value.

    The rare earth bubble article stirred the pot pretty good. My thesis was rare earths aren't rare, rising prices will attract big miners, REE companies are selling for insane valuations, and finally, if you want to be near the space, buy FCX or TC as they will benefit if the bubble doesn't explode and you'll not lose your nest egg if it does. Most commentors didn't want to get it.

    I usually get this type of response when I advocate shorting a stock. All the supporters rally with inane logic and never dispute the central facts. Same thing here. The owners of REE stocks defended the price rise with all types of mineral trivia, mine location, and personal attack. Nobody bothered to re-think their investment and convince me that paying $5B for MCP, a development stage junior, that has committed most of its eventual production to W.R. Grace at a fixed price and therefore won't materially benefit by any huge run up in REE prices, is a prudent investment. That attitude and lack of discipline is how bubbles develop and one is developing, if not already present.

    I did receive one comment worth reading. A person that could actually read and understand called me on my reference to Alfred Einstein, hoping it was Albert's brother. I have no idea as what I was thinking about when I typed that other than I probably had a scotch in my hand and wasn't concentrating deeply. It's better to make typing errors than investment errors.

    The above comment was posted this morning on The Crusty Credit Analyst.
    Jan 6, 2011. 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rare Earth Stocks Are in a Bubble [View article]
    Twenty comments, mostly about various factoids on REEs. Nothing about the financial soundness of buying Molycorp at a nearly $5B valuation. That's not investing, it's speculation. If it isn't a bubble it's well on the way.
    Jan 5, 2011. 10:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment