Founder of "The Contrarian", a premium research service, featuring the "Bet The Farm" Portfolio. Actively investing since 1995, I have soared like an eagle, and been unmercifully humbled by the markets. Achieved positive returns in 2008, and turned an account with $60,310 on 1/1/2009 into an account with $3,177,937 on 11/30/2009. My best years have been 1995-2003, 2008-2012, and 2016-????. My worst years were 2013-2015. I believe inflation is coming, and we are at an inflection point in the markets. Twenty year career as an investment analyst, investor, portfolio manager, consultant, and writer. Founder of Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd, which was incorporated in the spring of 2009. Dyed in the wool contrarian investor, who has learned, the hard way, that a good contrarian is only contrarian 20% of the time, but being right at key inflection points is the key to meaningful wealth creation in the markets. I believe we are near a meaningful inflection point, perhaps the biggest one yet, for the third time in the past 15 years. Historically, I have had huge wins and impressive losses based on a concentrated, contrarian strategy. Trying to keep the good while filtering out the bad.Seeking to run an all weather portfolio with minimal volatility and index overlays to capture my strategic and tactical recommendations along with a concentrated best ideas portfolio, which is my bread and butter, but the volatility only makes it suitable for a small piece of an investor's overall portfolio. The following are a couple of my favorite investment quotes. "Life and investing are long ballgames." Julian Robertson "A diamond is a chunk of coal that is made good under pressure." Henry Kissinger "Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world." Albert Einstein I’ve been on top of the world, and the world has been on top of me. I have learned to enjoy the perspective from each view, and use opportunities to persistently acquire knowledge, and enjoy the company of those around me, especially loved ones, family, and friends.At heart, I am a market historian with an unrivaled passion for the capital markets. I have had a long history and specialization with concentrated positions and options trading. Made money in 2008 with a net long portfolio, deploying capital in some of the market's darkest hours into long positions including purchases of American Express, Atlas Energy, Crosstex, First Industrial Real Estate, General Growth Properties, Genworth, Macquarie Infrastructure, Ruth Chris Steakhouse, and Vornado near their lows. Shorting, hedging, and option strategies also helped me in 2007 and 2009, and these are skills that I have developed ever since I started trading heavily in 1996.I enjoy reading, accumulating knowledge, and putting this knowledge to work in the active capital markets, learning lessons along the way.To this day, I continue to learn, and some of these learning lessons have been excruciatingly difficult ones, especially over the past several years, as I made mistakes allocating capital, including a sizable portion of my own capital (I always invest alongside my clients), to commodity related stocks. While all commodity related stocks have struggled since April of 2011, coal companies, which attracted me due to their extremely cheap valuations, and out-of-favor status (I am a strong believer in behavioral finance alongside fundamentals and technicals) have been the worst investing mistake of my career. The focus on the commodity arena has been the biggest mistake of my investment career thus far, yet in its aftermath, I see tremendous opportunity, even larger in scope than the fortuitous 2008/2009 environment.The capital that I accumulated and the confidence gained in navigating the treacherous investment waters of 2008 gave me the confidence to launch my own investment firm in the spring of 2009, right before the ultimate lows in the stock market. At the time I was working as a senior analyst at one of the largest RIA's in the country, and I felt strongly that the market environment was the best time since 1974/1975 to start an investment firm.Prior to starting my firm, I was a senior analyst for three different firms over approximately 10 years (Charles Schwab, Redwood, Oxford), moving up in responsibility and scope at each stop along my journey. Since I was a paperboy, I have always had an interest in the investment markets. I love researching and finding opportunities. I am a Chartered Financial Analyst, CFA, as well as a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst, CAIA. After starting in the teaching program at Ball State University, I switched to a career in finance when I turned a small student loan into a substantial amount of capital. I graduated summa cum laude with a degree in finance from Ball State.Full disclosure, I am not currently a registered investment advisor, though I did serve in this capacity from 2009-2014, while owning Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd. Additionally, I held various securities licenses from 2000-2014, without a single complaint filed, and I continue to hold industry designations. At the end of 2014, I voluntarily let my state registration expire, as I transitioned the business to a different structure. Prior to this, I had passed, and held, various securities exams and licenses, including the Series 7, Series 63, and Series 65 exams, in addition to others, alongside my CFA and CAIA designations. Unfortunately, I did not file the proper paperwork to withdraw my state registration, and I did not disclose a personal arrangement, and subsequent civil case, between myself and a former close personal friend and client, that was initiated in 2011. I was unaware that I was required to disclose these items, and my securities attorney, at the time, did not advise me to do so. Previously, I had managed a portfolio for this gentleman, and we had taken an investment of approximately $7 million in 2009, and grown it to over $25 million at the beginning of 2012. After a difficult year of performance, an employee of the firm I owned, and friend, resigned in early 2013, and took the aforementioned client to a competing firm. As a result of not filing the proper paperwork, I agreed to a settlement, with a potential $2500 fine in the future, depending on if I choose to reapply to be a non-exempt advisor.
I am a professional civil and mechanical engineer. My experience is mostly with utility commodity infrastructure and modeling.
I am an occasional, mostly long, contrarian investor with an interest in market trends that have reached extremes.
My focus, as a contributor, is with market effects related to changes in production of shale oil and natural gas.
Taylor Dart is a top contributor on Seeking Alpha in both the Long Ideas and Precious Metals section of the website. He has over 7 years of experience in active investing with a compound annual growth rate the past 4 years of 21 percent. His main focus is on undervalued growth stocks outperforming the market and their peers. In addition he use extensive technical analysis to capture maximum upside price action, as his belief is that timing is everything. Taylor scans upwards of 1200 stocks nightly on the U.S. and Canadian markets to identify the best fundamental opportunities with the most timely technical setups. He is a huge proponent of trend following and the "Turtles" who enjoyed compound annual growth rates of over 80 percent per year.
"If there is a sudden range expansion in a market that has been trading narrowly, human nature is to try and fade that price move. When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion.” - Paul Tudor Jones
"While a fundamental analyst may be able to properly evaluate the economics underlying a stock, I do not believe they can predict how the masses will process this same information. Ultimately, it is the dollar-weighted collective opinion of all market participants that determines whether a stock goes up or down. This consensus is revealed by analyzing price."
Mark Abraham , Quantitative Capital Management, L.P.
"Profit targets imply a trader can predict the future. Profit targets are profit-limiting. Trend followers stay in the moment of now, avoid prognostication, and let markets run as far as they go. "
Thomas Vician, Jr.
"We can’t always take advantage of a particular period. But in an uncertain world, perhaps the investment philosophy that makes the most sense, if you study the implications carefully, is trend following. Trend following consists of buying high and selling low. For 19 years we have consistently bought high and sold low. If trends were not the underlying nature of markets, our type of trading would have very quickly put us out of business. It wouldn’t take 19 years or even 19 months of buying high and selling low ALL of the time to bankrupt you. But trends are an integral, underlying reality in life. How can someone buy high and sell low and be successful for two decades unless the underlying nature of markets is to trend? On the other hand, I’ve seen year-after-year, brilliant men buying low and selling high for a while successfully and then going broke because they thought they understood why a certain investment instrument had to perform in accordance with their personal logic. "
John W. Henry
I run two services, Free CoT Data and Simple Stock Model. Free CoT Data reveals how different types of traders are positioned in the futures markets. Simple Stock Model aggregates financial and economic data so that investors can easily form a comprehensive data-based outlook on the S&P.
Partner at Robur Investment Resources, a service that provides individual investors with fundamental company financial data.
We focus on looking for undervalued, high dividend growth equities using contrarian style research in Europe and Asia.
You can follow our portfolio here: http://www.roburir.com/portfolio
Three out of four major stock market declines (-20% or more) have occurred during economic recessions. Recovering from these big losses can be a difficult and more importantly, stressful endeavor. With that in mind, doesn’t it make sense to have two game plans? One to grow wealth in favorable periods and another to protect during recession led bear markets? We think so… and this is precisely the All-Season investment approach we utilize. We invest on behalf of individuals, organizations, and financial advisors that appreciate a conservative and active investment style that aims to deliver consistent results without taking undue risk.
David Zilkha runs US investments for his family.
He has a BA (Hons) from Oxford University and an MBA from Columbia Business School. He then spent three years at Microsoft head office in Redmond, WA gaining tech industry experience before going on to work as an equity analyst for Pequot Capital in New York and Shumway Capital in Greenwich, CT.
Since 2004 he has broadened his sector and asset-class horizons managing a generalized but concentrated portfolio of public and private company investments.
An active investor in stocks, options, and mutual funds for over 30 years. My wife and I live in April Sound in Montgomery, Texas. I have recently retired from Contrack International as a Business Manager and retired earlier from the State of Texas Public Education System.
Graduated from Baylor University in 1968 with a BME degree in Music Education. Completed a Master's of Music Education from North Texas State University in 1976. Completed Texas certification for Mid-Management and Superintendent of Schools from Stephen F. Austin State University in Nacogdoches, TX in 1988.
Adam has over twenty five years’ experience in capital markets and investment management, in a career that has involved proprietary trading desks, commodity trading advisors, sovereign wealth funds and private offices. During this time he has had trading book P&L responsibility, in addition to setting up and managing offices of regulated global financial entities in the UAE.
As an investor I would like to be value oriented, however I find it increasingly difficult to locate any value opportunities in the current environment. I have previously focused my efforts on investing in highly illiquid assets on steep discounts in the secondary market for alternative investments (with fantastic results). The AI secondary market has been floating over with buyers as of late, making the space unattractive. Finding attractive value opportunities in the public space is nearly impossible these days. During 2016 I have focused my efforts and capital on energy stocks, although I exited the space last month. I am currently invested in illiquid Private Equity and Infrastructure assets which I have held for several years in addition to recently acquired gold, managed futures, treasuries and equity short positions. I am confident that the markets currently are in a huge bloated bubble of everything.
More about me:
I have more than nine years of Corporate Finance and Alternative Investment experience, including seven years of Alternative Investment Secondary experience. I currently focus my efforts on the co-founded Alternative Investment advisory business Intrinsic AI alongside managing my own assets (50/50 Alternative Investment Secondaries and public market equities). As a deal maker within the Alternative Investment space I have facilitated numerous deals worth billions. I have previously lead the Institutional Secondary Advisory efforts at Castelar. I also encompass Corporate Finance experience from DnB Markets and Private Equity buyside experience from Argentum Private Equity. I hold a BA in Business and Administration from Flagler College (St. Augustine) and is a CFA® charterholder.
I'm a tech professional who seeks out stocks with asymmetric risk/reward profiles, primarily in the biotech and tech sectors. I often take medium-term positions in risky contrarian markets with the expectation of large time-averaged gains from these special situations. I'm always looking for an undervalued opportunity, even if it's long term, regardless of market cap. I also follow and comment on commodities and demographics.
Retired from computer industry. Am value investor but also interested in distress-turnaround situations since I had some success with GGP, which had dropped from $60 to 60 cents due to inability in early 2009 to refi mortgages, then returned to $15 + HHC spinoff after exit from chap.11, largely engineered and heavily financed by Ackman/Pershing Square.
I am a full time mechanical engineer (passed CFA Level III within 18 months). I got my Master degree in mechanical engineering at University of Western Ontario (Western). I passed CFA Level I in Dec 2013, Level II in Jun 2014, level III in Jun 2015. I am long only conservative contrarian individual investor. I achieved 40% plus compounding return in the past 6 years started with a loan borrowed from my bank. I am living in Kingston, Ontario with my wife and two lovely daughters.
Michele Wucker, CEO of Gray Rhino and Company, is the author of THE GRAY RHINO: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore. She has been recognized as a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum, among other honors. Her past leadership positions include President of the World Policy Institute, where she was co-founder of the World Economic Roundtable. As Latin America Bureau Chief at International Financing Review, debt correspondent for Dow Jones Emerging Markets Report and New York correspondent for AméricaEconomía, she covered emerging capital markets and sovereign debt restructurings. She has lectured on five continents on topics including financial crisis, the global economy, risk management, leadership, and the economics of immigration.
Mr. Wells is a partner and the portfolio manager of Saracen Capital, LP, a fixed income hedge fund management company. Saracen Total Return Onshore Income Fund LP was selected and awarded as the nation's top-performing fund by strategy on a Sharpe Ratio (risk-adjusted) basis by Thomson/Reuters for 2013 from among 6,300 hedge funds. His former experience includes operating the nationwide fixed income desk for World Equity Group, Inc. Mr. Wells holds FINRA licenses series 7, 24, 27, 63 and 65 (Registered Investment Advisor). He has a Bachelor of Science in Applied Mathematics from Stephen F. Austin University. He is also a member of the Texas Hedge Fund Association
Auditor at Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co.
Controller of a small manufacturing company, a division of U S Industries.
Director of Business Planning at Esmark, Inc. Position included strategic planning, competitor comparisons, and analysis of potential acquisitions.
CFO of a Fortune 500 company, Envirodyne Industries, Inc., which was sold in 1989 for $ 40/share vs $ 1/share (approximately) when I joined the company in 1984. Envirodyne grew threw internal growth and acquisitions. Our management team was skillful and, quite frankly, many variables beyond our control turned out favorably for us.
Adjunct professor teaching Accounting I and II, Investments and Personal Finance courses at Benedictine University in Lisle, IL
Now semi-retired, actively manage my own portfolio. Tutor math and teach religious education at local schools.
My portfolio was devastated during the 2008-09 crisis, but has partially rebounded since then--my portfolio is more conservative these days. I totally ignored the warning signs back then. I am more open now to weighing and considering more extreme scenarios that I would have ignored before the most recent crisis.
NOT a stock broker nor in any way registered with the S.E.C. I am strictly a private investor.
Earned BS in BA from John Carroll University, Cleveland, OH. Earned Masters in Accounting from Ohio State University in Columbus, OH.