William M. Wright

Stimulus Program Not Stimulating Truth in Reporting

Many excellent points. Frankly with the exception of the President and Presidents man and women I've not heard any stories of jobs created. Still, we're all old enough to know that during recessions every President spends there time touting their policies as job savers or creators. Our job and trade problems have been building since 1985. Today our consumer goods spending probable creates more jobs for foreign workers than American.

Facebook's Dual Class Shares: Another Reason to Avoid This Company

An excellent article on Facebook and the real motives behind any dual share class scheme and IPO's. We all agree web-based applications have great value in a global and mobile economy. And web 2.0 is all about getting traffic and eyeballs in hopes that some day you'll figure out how to make money. So, if the young man and his Silicon Valley VC's can get people to pay $10 billion for that business model then I have to say, right-on dude, wish I was your dorm poker buddy as Steve Ballmer was to Bill Gates.

Finally, An Encouraging Jobs Report

The value of this post is in all the excellent educational comments.

Good Jobs Report = Bad News for 2010?

All rallies do end ( just as declines end). I too am worried 2010 maybe more like 2002 than 2004. But in 2005 when the fed was raising interest rates the market was rising (not falling). Interest rates are at historic low 1/4% and if employers start to hire and unemployment starts to fall in 2010, that will be seen as very positive news and at worst we get a sideways market. The Theory of a Bull Market chart is most interesting. But history has proven that rising employment and rising interest rates doesn't mean the market will decline. One need only look back to 2004-2005 to see that fact. This is not a 1979-81 sky-high inflation economy and interest rates are not now 8% and on there way to 12% as they were back then when they were a negative for a stagflation economy.

The Recurring Gold 'Bubble'

"Of course, governments around the world could probably put an end to these recurring gold bubbles if they took Paul Volcker-like tough-love measures to restore confidence in paper money once and for all." Paul Volcker faced a much different economy. Paul was not worried about the dollars value or golds value. Paul faced real actual massive inflation increases and a building boom. Yes, Greenspan should have keep interest rates higher to slow the housing boom but we're now in the bust phase. Can you image the public and businesses reaction if Ben raised interest rates to 10-12% just to crush the price of gold and commodities?

Marc Faber Is Not Optimistic

The headline says "Marc Faber Is Not Optimistic". The few words say, "The good news is that he thinks central bank money printing all around the world should carry us through the next six months or so, maybe even another year."

Sounds like Marc is making the usual market CYA Prediction of "I think the market should go down...but until it does it will go up." Did Marc tell us he was optimistic in March?

SmartHeat: Another Great Growth Story from China

Glen Fry, the HEAT IS ON...oh....ya....how about some more old Miami Vice tunes!

RINO, doubled in the last three months.

Yes, add YONG, FEED, and SEED, to your China list. The Communist know how to pick great USA symbols....FEED....SEED. SEED has already exploded up. Any views on FEED?

Energy Impoverishment: Heading Back to Coal?

You said, "I strongly favor an outcome in which oil, the construction fuel for the global buildout of new power generation, becomes so expensive that the world becomes energy poor, and turns instead back to coal."

Certainly if Peak Oil Theory is correct greater use of Dirty Coal is possible. But why no recognition of our new gold mines of Clean Natural Gas new shale fields ?

Dubai: The Economically Impossible Dream Is Over

I would add that ultra low interest rates (cost of capital) and Oil still up over 300% since 2001 made it much easier to believe "If we build it they will come". You are right: "Dubai, however, is like NASA; both have proven that anything is possible when you ignore economic costs. Many technological discoveries were made in the process of putting a man on the moon; but the project did have, and was expected to have, a negative return on capital" Still I believe the UAE SW FUND thanks to Oil is around $600 billion so the folks in the UAE can afford to waste money more than Oil poor USA.

P.S. No respectable USA or European skiier would pay money to go to Dubai to ski on that kiddie bunny bump.

November Beige Book Summary: Best of 2009

"The regional reports indicate that economic conditions continue to improve". Yes, I'm with you on this one Mr. Good News Economist. While I'm still worried about a jobless recovery we should be happy we are seeing these positive business signs. Unemployment and underemployment would only be worse without these positive BB signs.

John's point is a good one too. Savers and Taxpayers are funding this improvement. e.g. cash for clunkers, government $8,000 buyer subs, 40 year low government interest rate subs. As a saver who paid off his mortgage 10 years ago and who has a ton of cash balances earning less than 1/4% in MMF's I'm not happy with these policies since they only hurt me ( except for helping our bond and stock holdings).

5 Reasons to Expect a Near-Term Selloff

After the greatest market advance since the 1930's and now about 4,000 points and with the last of the SA Market Must Crash articles stopping in Nov. this sure sounds like a reasonable guess to me. The Author is simply suggesting it's more prudent to get defensive for a 5% correction then expect DJIA 11,000 as the next stop.

The Author pointed out that: "We have seen the sovereign CDS rise in the past three months especially in Japan (the world’s largest creditor!), whose CDS has doubled (rising from 35bps to 70bps) " but it's also true Japans market had fallen 1,000 points. L.O.L. but its now up over 700 points or 7% in just three trading days....so in hindsight that was the buying time ( not selling or shorting time).

Holiday Retail Outlook: 'Very Good Signs'

Circuit City bankruptcy was a huge win for BBY. Those former Circuit City fans who like to shop for electronics in traditional retail stores when to Best Buy this year.

Current Rush to Judgment Against AIG and Its Counterparties Is Unhelpful

"... the point of a “bailout” or assistance to a systemically important institution is not to save the institution itself but to limit the collateral damage." but BOB what is the point of Capitalism? And many taxpayers original thought "collateral damage" was little individual Main Street Policyholders NOT big time Wall Street Investment Bankers like GS. If we allowed individual shareholders and bondholders to lose money in companies like GM...why can't we allow GS to lose money on a trade?

Inflation Worries: Here's What We Can Learn from Japan

Finally someone who understands the "deflationary Japan experience" is more relevant than the "hyperinflation or stagflation 70's and early 80's USA experience". And I believe gold did just fine during the Great Depression too. Thanks for the comparison.

India’s Purchase of IMF Gold Would Challenge Fed’s Credibility to Support Dollar

"The expansion of the monetary supply base easily outstrips the amount of new gold that is being mined on an annual basis." gold bugs have tolled us this for decades. And the U.S. monetary policy has been crystal clear. It's sure easier to perdict then the stock market. So, Star Trak's SPOCK would say India is making a LOGICAL choice. And Captian KIRK would say, what took you so long India?