AMD is at a crossroads. Recent product design wins give it a chance to become highly profitable. Yet competition and changes in user patterns could further reduce AMD's sales of traditional products. This article will present an in-depth qualitative analysis of relatively long-term scenarios (1 to 3 years out).

First, a couple of short-term catalysts. While I was preparing to write this article, on May 16 Goldman Sachs downgraded AMD and the stock price plunged. But this had followed a run-up of the stock from a 52-week low of $1.81 on November 16, 2012 to $4.40 on May 15. The 52-week high had been $6.46 back on May 29, 2012.

The run up was on the presumption that AMD would be designed in to all three major global gaming consoles [Nintendo, Sony (SNE), and Microsoft (MSFT)]. Nintendo and Sony are known wins, but there has not been an official announcement

Dot Hill (HILL) has a long history of supplying data storage systems to OEMs for rebranding. Sun Microsystems once was its main customer. When that relationship ended Hill picked up HP, NetApp, and a number of smaller OEM customers. Dot Hill had to drop NetApp at the end of 2011 because it could not negotiate a deal that gave it workable margins. Needless to say, the data storage market is highly competitive and dominated by companies much larger than Hill, notably EMC, IBM and NetApp, as well as Hill partners Dell and HP. (Note this is a separate market from hard disk drive, SSD and tape drive manufacturers like Western Digital and Seagate.)

HP accounted for 61% of Dot Hill's revenue in Q1 2013, but that percentage is down from past years. Management has worked hard to sell to a variety of other OEMs and system integrators. In many cases

Biogen Idec (BIIB) is now off its 52-week high of $226.18 (reached earlier today), but up from a 52-week low of $126.39 (as of June 4, 2012). At $218.84 it has risen 73% off the low.

I began following BIIB in the first quarter of 2006, but did not acquire stock until February 2008, when I picked it up at $61.57 per share. In the short run I overpaid, but I picked up more later that year at $46.97. A person with perfect timing could have picked up shares at $40.27 on Nov. 28, 2008. Biogen then rose to $67.05 by the end of 2010, and looks like it invented an anti-gravity machine this January.

Biogen did so well that it became too large a percentage of my portfolio (according to my portfolio rules), so I sold half of my position on May 16, 2012, for $137.19. Now, of course,

Applied Materials (AMAT) makes capital equipment for semiconductor chip manufacturing. Demand in that sector has not been robust these last couple of years, although it has come off the bottom that lagged after the recession. This article will look at AMAT as a long-term investment, not a short term trade. Given that, the first thing to note is that it pays a dividend, which is currently $0.10 per quarter, or 3.1% per year at the current $13.06 stock price.

I believe the largest factor determining future AMAT revenue and profit will be the ongoing trend towards new, small process nodes (indicated by the size of the lines used to put transistors in chips. 32 nanometer is older than 28 nm.) But let's start with where we are now.

AMAT last reported on February 13 for the first fiscal fiscal quarter of 2013, which ended January 28, 2013. Against an overall

Dot Hill's (HILL) stock price shot up today on a series of announcements about partners and future guidance, as well as holding its annual analyst day. The last five years have been rocky for HILL, despite gradual acquisitions of new customers. In 2012, Dot Hill was developing products that it said would attract new customers (see "Dot Hill's 2013 Hopes"). Today was delivery day.

New guidance was given for Q1 2013, Q2 2013, full year-2013, and (tentatively) 2014. A recap of Q4 2012 provides perspective: Revenues were $44.1 million, down 6% from year earlier. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) were negative $0.03, down from $0.00 a year earlier. Not a great quarter.

Prior guidance for Q1 2013 was revenue between $43 and $46 million, with a non-GAAP EPS loss between $0.02 and $0.04. Today's guidance for Q1 (which should be pretty close given that the quarter is over)

Adobe Systems (ADBE) has been adopting a new, subscription model for its software, which results in a delay in recognition of revenue. Is that really the reason for its less-than-stellar revenue growth during 2012, or is the company perhaps using this story to cover other trends?

On March 19, Adobe reported revenue for the quarter ending March 1 at $1.008 billion, down 13% sequentially from $1.153 billion, and down 5% from $1.045 billion in the year-earlier quarter. Declining revenue usually results in low P/E ratios, but as I write, at a price of $43.57 per share, ADBE's trailing PE is 30.68, which is very high for a technology stock in this market.

Perhaps earnings are improving despite the revenue downtrend? No, GAAP earnings per share (EPS) were $0.13, down 70% sequentially from $0.44 and down 65% from $0.37 year-earlier. Nor were the poor earnings from strange GAAP rules;

Some experts mutter dark warnings about the Spamularity: the global Chaos that will ensue once the first distributed spamming engine achieves human-equivalent sentience. -- Rule 34, Charles Stross

Akamai (AKAM) was one of the survivors of the original Internet bubble, and for years was characterized by the volatility of its stock price. Specializing in Internet content acceleration, over the years it became the IBM (IBM) of this field. Money was being made, and so there was intense competition, and shorts sometimes heralded the fall of Akamai. AKAM always stayed a footstep or two in front of its competition. More importantly, it branched out.

Content acceleration has always been important to AKAM, but for years it has been adding other services to its repertoire. Content acceleration is a volume-driven, price-sensitive business, with a record of constant declining year-over-year prices, much like mass-market semiconductors. Akamai's new services -- notably Internet security

Microchip (MCHP) yesterday reported December-quarter (fiscal Q3 2013) results slightly above analysts' consensus and in line with the mid-range of its prior guidance. Normally, the March quarter is seasonally down from the December quarter, but in its guidance Microchip predicted sequential revenue growth. As a result, Microchip, which closed at $33.94 before reporting results, has climbed to $36.60 as of this writing. Microchip's current 52-week low is $28.92, and its 52-week high is $37.50.

Part of the strong revenue results resulted from the acquisition of SMSC. The same acquisition led to charges that hit GAAP profits pretty hard, but excluding those items, non-GAAP profits and free cash flow were strong. Microchip's model involves a focus on microcontrollers and related analog functions (touch screen control, wireless, and power management), with a wide variety of parts available to meet specific customer needs. Record revenue in quarter reflected a broad-based uptick in demand

Celgene (CELG), based in Summit, New Jersey, is a biotechnology and pharmaceutical company best known for its Revlimid therapy for multiple myeloma (MM). At its analyst call to discuss fourth quarter 2012 results, CEO Robert Hugin projected that revenue would hit $6 billion in 2013 and grow to $12 billion by 2017. He believed profits (non-GAAP EPS, earnings per share) would grow even faster, at an average of 25% per year through 2017.

Friday night I heard a high-level twit on NPR's Marketplace say that he would not buy stocks at this level because they have gone up so much in the last year, and in over the years since the 2008 collapse. Would he say the same about Celgene in particular?

Celgene's stock price took a hit during and following the 2008 sell-off, reaching a low of $38.33 in 2009. Here are end-of year closing prices since

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) hit revenue guidance for the final quarter of 2012, but the numbers were still dismal. Revenue was $1.16 billion, down 9% sequentially from $1.27 billion, and down 32% from $1.69 in the year-earlier quarter. Guidance is for Q1 2013 revenue to be down around another 9%. Net income was $473 million in the red on a GAAP basis, and even on a non-GAAP basis was $102 million short of breakeven.

Despite that, AMD CEO Rory Read was surprisingly upbeat about 2013, predicting the a return to profitability in the second half. Of course, we've heard that kind of optimism from AMD before, only to be let down. Are AMD's claims of a turnaround ahead credible?

AMD is currently known for making CPUs that compete with Intel's (INTC) for personal computers (notebooks and desktops) and servers. In addition AMD makes stand-alone graphics chips (GPUs), competing mainly with

TTM Technologies (TTMI), the largest American manufacturer of printed circuit boards (PCBs), saw a sharp drop in its stock price to $7.37 on Tuesday, January 15 after a story of a downgrade from an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus was circulated.

The company responded by updating its fourth quarter 2012 guidance on Thursday, coinciding with a presentation to investors that had already been scheduled. These results were equal to or better than the guidance TTMI gave when reporting Q3 (See TTMI Q3 2012) . The stock had recovered to $7.98 by market close today.

Q4 revenues are expected to be between $360 and $380 million, with GAAP earnings of $0.07 to $0.14 and non-GAAP earnings of $0.14 to $0.21.

In addition CEO Kenton Alder told investors that the high rate of capital expenditures of 2011 and 2012, which was required to meet high demand for the most advanced technology PCBs,

After finally getting FDA approval for prostate cancer therapy Provenge in May 2010, Dendreon's management thought their main problem would be setting up enough manufacturing capability to meet patient demand. Instead, and largely due to the FDA's unconscionable approval delay, by the time Provenge was available prostate cancer competing therapies were coming to market, from companies with larger and more experienced sales forces.

So revenue did not ramp as fast as Dendreon (DNDN) expected. Worse, they leveled off this year. Here are the numbers:

The Q4 2012 Provenge revenue is preliminary, and excludes a $3.8 million favorable adjustment to chargeback reserves which had built up in prior quarters.

Provenge seems to be in a run rate of $320 million per year, which would be a pretty successful drug if its cost of production

Many, but not all, analysts had a dim view of Onyx Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) at the beginning of 2012. Onyx had only one approved therapy, Nexavar for liver and kidney cancer. Between sharing Nexavar revenues with marketing partner Bayer and heavy R&D spending on new drugs and indications, Onyx ended in the red in most quarters.

What a difference a year makes. Onyx now has four approved indications and data that should earn approval for two more. A deeper pipeline exists as well. Its newly approved drug Kyprolis for MM (multiple myeloma) had revenues of $62 million, most of which would have been in the fourth quarter. This does not necessarily mean that Onyx will show a profit for Q4, but it does look like 2013 will be remarkably good, with 2014 even better.

The third approved therapy, and fourth approved indication, is Stivarga (formerly Regorafenib), which was also developed in

Dot Hill (HILL) stock has been one of the worst performers in my portfolio lately. It traded yesterday at $0.88 per share, versus a 52 week high of $1.65 and 52 week low of $0.72. I have been invested in HILL for years, but more so than for most of my portfolio it has been a stock I have traded in, rather than just holding.

Dot Hill is a specialty data storage (SAN) solution equipment manufacturer, with many companies rebranding and selling its products, and HP as its by-far single largest customer. Looking at the past few years, management has continually indicated that prosperity (solid profits) is just around the corner, 2 or 3 quarters out, but the profits never have materialized. Hence credibility is low, and so is the stock price.

HILL is rolling out new products and has a number of new customers, some announced and some yet

Gilead Sciences (GILD), has had a good year so far. On January 3, 2012 it opened at $41.46. Monday it closed at 74.61, fairly near its 52-week high of $76.28. So up 84% this year. I used to write about Gilead more often during the years 2007 to 2011, arguing that it was undervalued. After finally getting a solid run up, is it time to bail out, hold, or buy more?

The forward-looking story is now largely about curing Hepatitis C, but first the latest backward-looking numbers.

In Q3 revenue was $2.43 billion, up 1% sequentially from $2.41 billion and up 14% from $2.12 billion in the year-earlier quarter. GAAP net income was $675.5 million, down 5% sequentially from $711.6 million, and down 9% from $741.1 million year-earlier. GAAP earnings per share (EPS) were $0.85, down 7% sequentially from $0.91 and down 10% from $0.95 year-earlier. Non-GAAP net income

Back on April 29, 2010, Dendreon (DNDN) announced that Provenge had been approved by the FDA. That day Dendreon opened at $40.09 and closed at $54.58. On March 6, 2009, it had opened at $2.77 per share. Friday DNDN closed at $4.45. Was FDA approval really that meaningless?

Recent Q3 sales results for Provenge were down sequentially from Q2, which is not reassuring, although not as bad as some of the anti-Dendreon crowd had predicted.

Dendreon still has a couple of shots at getting off the ropes and becoming a valuable company, but a further drop in Provenge sales, or even stasis, could lead to bankruptcy. Investors have mostly erred on the side of safety, and abandoned hope. This means there is more upside than downside at today's price, but the downside risk is still considerable.

Provenge is an immunotherapy that is approved by the FDA for asymptomatic or minimally

Cantel Medical (CMN) specializes in disinfection equipment for dental offices and medical centers. Its products range from face masks to complex endoscope sterilization machines. Monday it closed at $26.31, up $0.40. Cantel's 52 week high was $28.97 on September 25th. Is Cantel's run up over? Should it be bought or held for its long-run potential?

Cantel has grown both organically and through acquisitions. Acquisitions are often not a plus for investors. In Cantel's case, however, the acquisitions have gone very well. The acquired companies were bought as reasonable prices. Cantel has been able to increase margins at the acquired companies, partly by using its existing sales forces to ramp sales. The process has left Cantel with some debt, but it is at low interest rates and there is a clear path to paying it off.

In fiscal Q4 ending July 31st Cantel Medical revenue was $98.7 million, up 2%

Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) won a slot in the Microsoft Surface tablet computer. According to Anandtech (Inside Microsoft's Surface RT Tablet, October 16, 2012), the WiFi chip on the tablet is Marvell's. NVIDIA (NVDA) won the main prize with its Tegra 3 ARM-based processing chip. Atmel also had chips in the design.

We don't know how many of the WiFi chips Marvell shipped to Microsoft (MSFT) in the summer quarter (Marvell's fiscal Q3 2013 ending October 27, 2012), but it was not enough to balance the damage in the hard disk drive (HDD) controller chip business. Marvell dominates HDD controller chips, but the problem is that the largest single use of HDDs in in PCs. It was a terrible quarter for PC sales, and little HDD makers Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) could do about it.

Marvell had guided revenues to $800 to $850 million. The

AMD is plunging to new multi-year lows today. Egg on my face, I added to my position recently, so I just managed to add to my losses.

With all the bad news in the PC industry I did not expect AMD to make its previous guidance, which was for an essentially sequentially flat Q3, when Q3 is typically the strongest quarter of the season. Preliminary Q3 results were released today, with revenue down 10% sequentially and a $100 million inventory write off. Ouch. Considerably worse than I anticipated.

Can AMD survive? It is a fair question. I still like AMDs graphics and graphics-integrated APUs (advanced processing units). I still think that desktop PCs with big screens can do a lot of things that mobile devices can't do. I am looking to buy a larger screen and an APU-based computer myself, and I think having massive parallel processing on the CPU

Microchip Technology (MCHP) is one of the largest global manufacturers of microcontrollers, which are semiconductor chips incorporating computers and capabilities to receive data from sensors and send control signals to motors or other external parts. For investors, the company is noted for its relatively high dividend and its ability to generate profits even during down cycles.

On Monday, Sept. 10, Microchip stock closed at $34.14, against a 52-week high of $38.87 and low of $30.07. At that price, MCHP market capitalization is $6.6 billion, and the dividend yield is 4.05%.

Last week, CEO Steve Sanghi reported that after a sequentially up calendar Q1 and Q2, the business environment weakened toward the end of Q2, with Europe particularly slow. The situation has not improved, so Microchip is now guiding revenues to be about flat in Q3 compared to Q2, excluding the increased revenue from the recent SMSC acquisition. (Note that calendar