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William Meyers  

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  • Seattle Genetics: The Long View
    Wed, Feb. 25 SGEN 19 Comments

    Summary

    • Despite 1 therapy commercialized, SGEN generates net losses.
    • Label expansion and pipeline progress will eventually add revenue.
    • ADC (antibody-drug conjugate) platform has attracted large-cap partners.
    • Short-term, SGEN will fluctuate; long-term, it is highly like to rise significantly.
  • Dot Hill's Q1 Guidance Will Be Critical
    Wed, Feb. 4 HILL 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Dot Hill Q4 2014 has been guided to a strong quarter.
    • Q1 2015 would normally be seasonally weak.
    • A relatively strong Q1 would indicate strong new product ramps and a strong 2015.
  • Seagate Drops On Buyback Strategy Statement
    Mon, Jan. 26 STX 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Cash flow and earnings are strong.
    • CEO said buybacks are attractive under $60 per share.
    • Dividends appear to be the preferred way to return cash to shareholders.
  • Alexion's Rare Disease Model Analyzed
    Dec. 18, 2014 ALXN 1 Comment

    Summary

    • EPS is growing rapidly, and the pipeline is strong.
    • Soliris is so effective it increases its patient base over time.
    • Resistance to pricing is an issue; comparison with Gilead.
    • Despite a high P/E ratio, Alexion remains an attractive investment.
  • Agenus: Herpes Competition And Cancer Checkpoint Prospects
    Dec. 11, 2014 AGEN 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Agenus is a development phase company with major pharmaceutical partners.
    • How Agenus stacks up against Herpes vaccine competition.
    • How cancer checkpoint modulators (CPMs) could accelerate growth.
  • Intel: Expiring Or Renewing With Mobile And Cloud?
    Dec. 3, 2014 INTC 69 Comments

    Summary

    • Intel's smartphone weakness not easily solvable.
    • Strength remains in datacenter build out and PCs.
    • AMD weakness allows good margins in some Intel chips, for now.
    • On balance Intel is now just another dividend stock.
  • Celgene Stock Price: Is It Bubbly?
    Dec. 1, 2014 CELG 8 Comments

    Summary

    • My prediction of $100 per share in 2015 was considered extremely bullish just last April.
    • At $110 Celgene had a P/E ratio of 58.
    • Amgen's Kyprolis place as a multiple myeloma competitor.
    • Is the current price bubbly or just a realistic assessment of 2015?
  • Biogen Idec, PML Deaths, And Hemophilia Therapies
    Nov. 19, 2014 BIIB 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Tecfidera ramp likely to continue despite PML death.
    • Hemophilia therapy ramps are keys to 2015 stock price.
    • Non-MS midterm pipeline needs reinforcement.
  • Intuitive Surgical Staple Problem And Other Cautions
    Nov. 4, 2014 ISRG 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Intuitive Surgical carries a high P/E caveat.
    • There are signs of turn-around after a slump.
    • The company's staple mishap is not fully explained.
  • Seagate Grows Revenue, Raises Dividend
    Oct. 28, 2014 STX 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Dividend raised to $0.54 per quarter from $0.42, or about 3.6%.
    • Revenue rose, but net income fell y/y.
    • Plan is to expand the model further with hybrid and flash technology.
  • Illumina Sequences Profits, Exceeding Q3 Guidance
    Oct. 22, 2014 ILMN 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.77, up 71% y/y.
    • Guidance for full 2014 was increased again.
    • DNA sequencing machine demand shows no signs of abating.
  • AMD Seasonality Does Not Imply Failure
    Oct. 21, 2014 AMD 61 Comments

    Summary

    • Seasonality change does not imply failure.
    • "semi-custom large design wins" disappoint on timing.
    • Lisa Su Returns AMD to its Engineering Roots.
    • Apple win essentially meaningless.
  • Xilinx EPS Grows 27%, But What About The Future?
    Oct. 19, 2014 XLNX 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Going into September quarter results, Xilinx was a battered stock.
    • The gloom was mainly due to the slow pace of China LTE deployment.
    • EPS Rose 27% from the year-earlier quarter.
  • Dot Hill Nears Inflection Point
    Sep. 18, 2014 HILL 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Dot Hill is introducing new advanced data storage technologies.
    • New customers and new products for vertical markets should drive growth.
    • Q2 results were weak due to a (likely) one-time event.
    • Dot Hill's stock price is attractive if you assume a near-term positive inflection point.
  • Could GlaxoSmithKline Be A Better Investment Than Gilead?
    Sep. 17, 2014 GSK 23 Comments

    Summary

    • GlaxoSmithKline has declined this year while Gilead has risen.
    • Glaxo has a new HIV therapy that could take market share from Gilead.
    • Glaxo's pipeline should lead it back to growth in 2015.
    • But Gilead is likely to continue to outperform Glaxo in the short run.
  • Mylan: Deeply Undervalued On Unwarranted Approval Concerns
    Aug. 27, 2014 MYL 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Mylan has a vast pipeline of generic drugs awaiting FDA approval.
    • Concern about the timing of approvals has depressed the stock price.
    • Patient investors are likely to see extraordinary returns in the next few years.
  • Will Inovio's Deal With Roche Lead To A Cancer Blockbuster?
    Aug. 15, 2014 INO 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Inovio announced changes in its prostate cancer collaboration with Roche.
    • A Roche checkpoint modulator will likely to be added to Inovio's DNA vaccine.
    • Milestone payments should ease Inovio investors' painfully long wait for results.
  • Vertex's Price And Prospects Compared To Alexion
    Aug. 7, 2014 VRTX 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Vertex's stock price already assumes a large expansion in patients treated for cystic fibrosis.
    • Vertex's value is highly dependent on a $300,000 per year per patient price tag.
    • Vertex could break up or down, even assuming FDA approval for Lumacaftor, due to pricing.
  • How Microchip Ramped Earnings With 8-Bit Devices
    Aug. 5, 2014 MCHP 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Microchip EPS rose 19% y/y to $0.68.
    • 8-bit microcontroller devices led revenue growth.
    • ARM challenge was just in analysts' imaginations.
  • Can Biogen Idec Take Wing With Tecfidera?
    Jul. 29, 2014 BIIB 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Biogen reported strong Q2 results and raised guidance.
    • Tecfidera for multiple sclerosis was the key growth driver in the quarter.
    • Using reasonable EPS growth estimates, Biogen looks attractive for longer-term investors.
  • Is Inovio Undervalued After Positive HPV Therapy Results?
    Jul. 23, 2014 INO 51 Comments

    Summary

    • Inovio released positive topline Phase II data for its HPV vaccine.
    • In addition to clearing up HPV, it results in cervical tumor regression.
    • This confirms the possible efficacy of DNA-based vaccines in general.
    • Inovio has a broad pipeline of early-stage DNA vaccines.
  • 3 More Reasons To Stay Long AMD
    Jul. 1, 2014 AMD 52 Comments

    Summary

    • Market capitalization is well below 1 times annual revenue.
    • Margins are likely to improve.
    • Gaming consoles to ramp in China in 2015.
  • Gilead Down On Merck-Idenix Deal, But Little To Fear
    Jun. 9, 2014 GILD 36 Comments

    Summary

    • Merck is acquiring Idenix for its hepatitis C pipeline.
    • Gilead, which had $2.3 billion in hepatitis C revenue in Q1, sold off on the news.
    • The state of the combined Merck-Idenix pipelines indicates Gilead remains well ahead.
    • The valuation of Idenix indicates its therapies are unlikely to beat Gilead's.
  • Seagate Adds Potential Value With SSD Capabilities
    Jun. 5, 2014 STX 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Seagate is acquiring the SSD assets of LSI.
    • HDD storage is still far cheaper than SSD.
    • Seagate could return to growth, and a higher P/E.
  • Agenus Platforms Provide Many Shots On Commercialization Goal
    May. 13, 2014 AGEN 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Agenus is a development-stage biotech with 3 therapy platforms.
    • Cancer checkpoint inhibitor platform resulted in a partnership with Merck.
    • A broad pipeline provides many shots at commercialization of therapies.
  • Celgene In 2015: $200 Per Share
    Apr. 29, 2014 CELG 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Using Celgene's guidance and current P/E, should approach $160 per share by end of 2014.
    • Using Celgene's guidance and current P/E, should approach $345 per share by end of 2017.
    • Expect strong earnings growth from sales of Revlimid and new products Pomalyst and Ortezla.
  • Regeneron Down 15% From 52-Week High: Buy?
    Apr. 9, 2014 REGN 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Regeneron has a high P/E ratio.
    • Eylea revenue has been growing fast and should continue rapid growth through 2015, at least.
    • Is 15% off the 52-week high a buying opportunity?
  • Dendreon Ready For A Rebound
    Mar. 25, 2014 DNDN 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Dendreon has multiple positive potential catalysts in 2014-2015.
    • The negative argument against DNDN has been over-hyped.
    • The approval of Provenge in Europe reinforces the medical consensus about its efficacy.
  • Diverging Strategies Make AMD, Intel And Nvidia All Buys
    Feb. 18, 2014 INTC, AMD, NVDA 20 Comments
  • Xilinx Has A Brighter Future Than Intel
    Feb. 5, 2014 XLNX 13 Comments
  • Akamai: Q4 Could Be A Catalyst
    Jan. 9, 2014 AKAM 1 Comment
  • Marvell Technologies Will Ramp Smartphone Chip Profits In 2014
    Jan. 6, 2014 MRVL 8 Comments