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William Meyers  

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  • What Biogen Idec's Alzheimer's Candidate Could Be Worth [View article]
    Thanks for the analysis. I remain long on BIIB because of all-around strength with currently commercialized therapies. If it has a therapy that works for Alzheimer's, great. How much would you pay to not lose your mind? A lot more than what you would pay for something (current drugs) that is little better than a strong cup of coffee. For now I am not assuming any value for BIIB37, but it does appear to be worthy of further clinical development.
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agenus: Herpes Competition And Cancer Checkpoint Prospects [View article]
    The Admedus human test was on uninfected humans, so presumed preventative. Admedus will need a separate clinical trial (not just animal trials) if they want to register the vaccine to treat infected people. The good new here is that one or another of these therapies, or a modification of it, is likely to make herpes infections as rare as smallpox. All these companies deserve watching, and maybe investing in, depending on your risk appetite.
    Dec 12, 2014. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Agenus: Herpes Competition And Cancer Checkpoint Prospects [View article]
    I agree that HerpV results are not strong; that is one reason I wrote this article. If Agenus reformulates HerpV or even drops it in favor of the CPM side, fine by me. But I think if they went to the FDA first and had Phase III results at least as good as Phase II results, they could get approval. I hope the Admedus vaccine is as good as it sounds, but the results are very preliminary. To compare it to HerpV we would need to know what threshold each company used to say there was a T cell response.
    Dec 12, 2014. 02:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Careful With Gilead - It May Be Time To Take Profits [View article]
    I believe Gilead will continue to generate very large cash flows and return a good proportion of that cash to investors over time. If the stock stays at a low P/E then it makes sense to do stock repurchases. If the stock price climbs to more in line with other major biotech growth stocks, then I would favor a special dividend or even a regular dividend. One way or another, investors at the current price are going to get good returns from Harvoni. I have been long GILD since 2007 and recently broke my portfolio rules to add more GILD, based on valuation and my growth expectations.
    Nov 25, 2014. 11:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biogen Idec, PML Deaths, And Hemophilia Therapies [View article]
    Novartis is certainly advertising that Gilenya as more effective than Avonex (but not Tysabri). Its once-daily pill form gives it an advantage over therapies that require infusions or injections. Gilenya has some side effect issues like macular edema. But it was approved by the FDA in 2010, and it did not prevent the rapid adoption of Tecfidera, which is also taken orally. Certainly Gilenya and other competitors do not help Biogen, but the overall issue is the limited number of patients needing treatment for MS.
    Nov 20, 2014. 12:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TEVA: Copaxone Patent Expiry Worries Are Overblown [View article]
    Nice article. Mylan seems to think they should have already been allowed by the FDA to market generic copaxone. Amgen believes biologics retain market share against biosimilars better than small molecules. But your article argues it both ways. If we assume Teva loses market share slowly for its biologics, we should assume it can only gain market share slowly with its own biosimilars. I certainly agree the biosimilar market is one to look at investing in. I am long Mylan, always looking at the other choices to add in biotechnology.
    Nov 18, 2014. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Inovio's Deal With Roche Lead To A Cancer Blockbuster? [View article]
    Change of plan announced November 17, 2014:

    http://bit.ly/1yNqpAL
    Nov 17, 2014. 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Someone Will Make Big Money From Adobe [View article]
    Good article. It is hard to predict in advance who the winners will be in future tech transitions. The problem for Adobe competitors in the design space is that they have to price their products much lower than Adobe, they usually have to provide compatibility to Adobe formats, and as a result their margins are low. Adobe has the cash flow to keep investing in R&D and buying companies in adjacent spaces. I use some legacy Adobe products, but the stock price does look out of touch with reality to me, as is the idea that I would subscibe to the new products.
    Nov 17, 2014. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Gilead Always Holding The Ace? A Prediction Of The Future HCV Market And What Analysts Aren't Talking About [View article]
    Pricing power? What about Elasticity of Demand? The lower the price goes, the more insurers will allow patients to be cured. It is at least possible that Gilead could make more money in the short run if it were forced by competiton to price lower. And given the number of Hep C infected individuals in the world, the short run could go on for at least a couple of decades.
    Nov 12, 2014. 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Neurocrine Biosciences Looking Forward To A Big Year [View article]
    At Friday's closing price of $18.58 NBIX has a market cap of $1 billion. I am intrigued, but I would want to study the terms of the deal with AbbVie, and I admit I know relatively little about endometriosis, except that it is not uncommon, and it is seldom life-threatening. Probably can't charge an arm and a leg for a therapy like Alexion can for rare but life-threatening disorders. Thanks for the article.
    Nov 8, 2014. 06:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biogen Decline Over PML Tied To Tecfidera, Offers Investors A Lower Entry Point [View article]
    There is no current "cure" yet for Multiple Sclerosis. MS is an extremely variable disease, hitting different patients different ways, but almost always worsening over time. Different drugs for MS have different mechanisms of action, and help some patients more than others. Generally, too, the better a drug is at stopping MS symptoms, the more it suppresses the immune system, so the greater risk of PML or less serious infections. Hence, more research is needed to understand the disease and treat it more safely and effectively.
    Nov 8, 2014. 06:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seagate Grows Revenue, Raises Dividend [View article]
    I regret if anyone found this point unclear. IF you believe in market equilibrium, if the dividend is the prime reason people own Seagate, then the stock price should rise until the dividend yield has fallen to its prior level. The stock is up since the announcement, but not enough to equilize the yield. Seagate's announcement used the figure up 26% per share to $2.16 annually. It was previously $1.72 annually. Or in terms of quarterly payments, increased from $0.43 to $0.54, which with a bit more precision is up 25.6%.
    Nov 3, 2014. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Seasonality Does Not Imply Failure [View article]
    And yet so far gaming console sales by Microsoft and Sony have been quite good. Tablets are as likely to see a surprising lack of end demand in Q4 as consoles. Big question is what will console sales be in China in 2014?
    Oct 21, 2014. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xilinx EPS Grows 27%, But What About The Future? [View article]
    Good points. ASICs are the overall competition. Engineers tend to use what they are familiar with.
    Oct 19, 2014. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microchip Technology: CEO Flubs A Warning Announcement [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I think the sell-off was just typical of what happens in an auction market on bad news: people (or programs) sell without thinking what an appropriate stock price would actually be. Even with the failure to meet guidance, Microchip revenue is up 11% y/y, and 7% excluding the ISSC acquisition. The problem was more with the prior guidance than the results. As to the cause, it could be caution or product introduction delays, not a slowdown in the entire sector. My guess is sanctions against Russia hurt German orders, and both in turn hurt orders in China. The chain is global; economic warfare hurts everyone.
    Oct 10, 2014. 01:14 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
157 Comments
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