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William Meyers  

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  • A No-Nonsense Projection Of Gilead In 2015 [View article]
    Gilead has a market cap of around $147 billion. Many of the larger holders were at or near their portfolio limits for a single stock even when GILD was at $20 in 2011. So they have to sell off some of their GILD; in theory they reduce portfolio risk that way. I am over my portfolio rule for a single stock for GILD. I have accepted the risk of breaking the rule, which I see as minimal, with a great reward if I keep the stock and nothing goes wrong. But the more rigid organizations can't break rules so easily. I intend to gradually bring back GILD to within my rules if the price ever gets near reflecting the underlying value.
    Mar 18, 2015. 01:35 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Update: Reasons 11 And 12 Why AMD Will Be $10 In 2017 [View article]
    I am long AMD, but don't have much hope for China console sales in 2015. Didn't Microsoft sell just 100,000 Xbox One there so far? Well, that is a chunk of AMD silicon that would not have been sold otherwise, but it is not looking like a ramp to 5,000,000 any time soon. I expect continued innovation and sales execution from AMD, which I why I continue to hold AMD, but 2015 looks like another rough year.
    Mar 17, 2015. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Illustrating Why Amgen Offers Additional Alpha Versus Gilead Sciences [View article]
    Nice article. I came to the same conclusion on AMGN. As to GILD, I had been so focused on hepatitis c, I had been discounting the NASH opportunity. But is it big enough to "eclipse the HCV market?" How many patients are there currently?
    Mar 17, 2015. 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotechnology Boom [View article]
    Even when Gilead initiates dividends in Q2, its cash will continue to pile up. Which is partly my cash since I am a stockholder. It is almost funny how afraid people are to buy GILD, when they plunge into certain far more dangerous biotechnology stocks being hyped by sell-side analysts. Funnier still, once someone tried to convince me I should put my money into Groupon instead of Gilead, Celgene, and Biogen. Hey, I am laughing? Yes, and it feels good.
    Mar 12, 2015. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amgen Is A Biotechnology Portfolio Cornerstone [View article]
    I agree. I would pay down debt. But they likely want to be able to make acquisitions and continue the rapid pace of returning cash to shareholders.
    Mar 11, 2015. 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mylan Sees A Sentiment Shift From A Top 3 Institutional Holder [View article]
    With the first approval of a biosimilar now done in the U.S., filgrastim or Neupogen substitute, we know the FDA has opened the pipeline to other biosimilar approvals. Mylan has had its applications in, the theme until now is delays at the FDA. While Mylan has a large and diverse existing base, as its new biosimilars get commercialized it will see a sizable boost in revenue and profit in 2015 and 2016. There will always be some investors cashing in on past success for a variety of reasons, but in the next 2 years I expect MYL to head towards $80 per share. Could be wrong, but look at long-term guidance before you make the mistake of acting on short-term trading ideas.
    Mar 7, 2015. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Baltic Dry Index Lows, Shipping Markets, And Steel Consumption In China [View article]
    Thanks for the insights.
    Mar 6, 2015. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seattle Genetics: The Long View [View article]
    I would like to acquire more SGEN, so of course I might take advantage of a dip. But any short term drop would likely be due to a general sell off of stocks or biotechnology stocks in general, which is beyond my predictive capabilities.
    Feb 25, 2015. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Gilead's 2015 Outlook [View article]
    You can bet that there is astonishing cash flow left over after paying dividends (starting in Q2) and for stock repurchases. That cash will fuel new pipeline candidates, and Gilead management has a great record of turning pipeline candidates into commercial products.
    Feb 17, 2015. 04:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Sanofi, And Amgen Will Weather The Inevitable Price Wars [View article]
    Insurance companies have long acted as gatekeepers, refusing to pay for all sorts of treatments for a wide variety of reasons. Competition in cholesterol therapies has been around for decades. Amgen and Regeneron may go head to head in PCSK9 inhibitors, but otherwise have different commercial drugs and pipelines. I own both and expect both to continue to do well. I'm not discounting there will likely be competition on both price and to capture market share, but you can capture the entire market share by holding both stocks. Thanks for a thought-provoking article.
    Feb 9, 2015. 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Sell The S&P 500 [View article]
    Possible, but I don't think so. I see demand for U.S. housing construction increasing in 2015. If sanctions are ended against Russia or Iran, or preferably both, global growth in 2015 could well outpace projections. By mid-2015 we are likely to see a million more employed people in the U.S. The market is an aggregate of individual stock prices. I would not touch many high P/E stocks right now, but I still see many stocks that are attractive to buy. I am more likely to be a buyer in 2015 than a seller, but my buying and selling is always stock-specific. Index funds are for the corporate drone 401K crowd. Shorting the market right now is at least as dangerous of a strategy as staying long.
    Jan 24, 2015. 06:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DoctoRx Positions For 2015: I Have Cut Back On My Exposure To All Biotech Substantially [View article]
    I work on a very stock-specific basis, but likely in 2015 I will continue to shift my portfolio, which was once almost all information technology/semiconduct... to biotechnology/health. An aging population and newer, much more effective products are drivers for healthcare spending, but I am careful about pricing (P/E ratios) and hype about pipelines. I will continue to buy small cap biotechs if I like their technologies and believe their market caps don't yet reflect their likely future values. But most of my money goes to companies with both FDA approvals and strong pipelines. I invested in GILD, BIIB and CELG in 2008-2009 and it was the best long-term investment decision I have made.
    Dec 30, 2014. 10:59 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: A Lot To Like Right Now [View article]
    Nice, but free cash flow depends on revenues, and revenues depend on products remaining popular, with good margins. How is the transition of Office to the subscription model going? Will people be willing to pay for Windows 10 after the disappointment with Windows 8? How are Windows tablets selling? I like Microsoft, I am getting used to Windows 8.1, but I don't see buying based on your argument alone.
    Dec 19, 2014. 03:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agenus: Herpes Competition And Cancer Checkpoint Prospects [View article]
    And here is the press release:

    Positive Outcome of Phase 3 Study of GSK Shingles Vaccine Containing Agenus Adjuvant

    I think the positive surprises will keep coming, at intervals ...
    Dec 18, 2014. 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Biogen Idec's Alzheimer's Candidate Could Be Worth [View article]
    Thanks for the analysis. I remain long on BIIB because of all-around strength with currently commercialized therapies. If it has a therapy that works for Alzheimer's, great. How much would you pay to not lose your mind? A lot more than what you would pay for something (current drugs) that is little better than a strong cup of coffee. For now I am not assuming any value for BIIB37, but it does appear to be worthy of further clinical development.
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment