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William Meyers

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  • Applied Materials Is Substantially Overvalued [View article]
    The story is that process technology is changing as we go to lower nm and 3d. More steps are needed to make the technology work, which means more machines, which should mean higher revenues for AMAT and other semiconductor capital equipment makers. It pays a nice dividend too. I remain long.
    Jan 8 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Marvell Technologies Will Ramp Smartphone Chip Profits In 2014 [View article]
    PE, or P/E, can be tricky: you have to be carefull. The P part, Price, is set at any given moment. The E is somewhat subjective. Are we talking GAAP, or non-GAAP earnings? Trailing or projected forward? There is a formula for what the PE should be if you know what inflation will be and know how fast a firm's earnings will grow. I gave a range partly to show how subjective these figures are that some investors accept as facts at face value. How much profit will MRVL or any other company be making 2 years from now? No analyst really knows. Analysis of the factual past is easy. Like other analysts, I try to predict the future based on known trends, but it is really guess work most of the time. No one really knows how many Yulong Coolpad smartphones will sell in 2014. That is more of a worry to me than the PE I choose to use to make up a target price.
    Jan 7 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gilead Rebuttal [View article]
    Excellent article. I have been long GILD for years now and feel I know a lot about Gilead and Hep C, but I still learned a lot from your article. I hope as the numbers come it as each quarter is reported we will see that $75 or so a share is actually a bottom, not a top.
    Jan 6 08:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inovio, Chelsea struggle after Feuerstein mention [View news story]
    I am long INO but know it is speculative until there is an FDA approval. Often Feuerstein is right, but I don't think a $500 million or so cap ex for INO is excessive given the potential of the technology if it works in humans as well as it works in test tubes. The idea that retail investors are wrong and institutional investors are right is poor thinking: institutional investors tend to be risk-averse and some (pension funds) have rules against investing in sub $10 stocks. I understand the risk-rewards scenario at Inovio and accept the risks. When trial data comes out, I'll look at the statistics carefully. The price drop today was most likely caused by profit-taking among those who bought the stock at under $1 or even under $0.50, then waited until 2014 to sell so the capital gains would be in 2014 instead of in 2013. Can't blame people for locking in some profit.
    Jan 3 04:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Robotic Companies Keep Soaring In 2014? [View article]
    Thanks for the update. I remain long ADEP. However, I would like to see some sales ramp from the new products, at reasonable margins, in the current and next few quarters. Industrial robots are capital equipment so rollouts can be slow. In any case I went long on ADEP in November 2012 and only wish I had been less cautious building a position back then. Happy New Year indeed.
    Dec 31 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crossroads: A Veteran Patent Stock About To Finally Come Of Age? [View article]
    Garbage in, garbage out. If a company can't make a product they can sell enough of to earn a profit, why should vague patent claims be treated as inventions? What is the value of these basically useless "inventions" within the the real storage market?

    If you can get past my cynicism, what would be the effect of recent anti-trolling rulings and the possible anti-troll law passed by the House of Representatives?

    disclaimer: I am long HILL (Dot Hill). They actually make good products and sell them, and have their own substantial patent portfolio.
    Dec 13 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: A Unique Stallion [View article]
    While it will take a while to ramp, I see 100,000 patients per year as a reasonable estimate for Sovaldi and later Gilead combo oral one pill per day Hep C cures. I've been cautious about GILD this year, and still wonder if the new pricing will stick given the competition, but based on estimated new revenue less COGS, S&M expense and taxes, my initial estimate is that, at a reasonable PE, GILD should be around $110 per share by 2015 if not earlier. I've been long GILD since 2007.
    Dec 9 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences Hepatitis C Approval May Be Factored In [View article]
    And now we know the price for Sovaldi (formerly Sofosbuvir) will be $85 thousand for genotypes 1, 2, and 4, and $170 thousand for type 3. But at that price there will be price resistance, and possibly some older or less effective therapies will use pricing as a competitive advantage. Still, at 100,000 patients per year (just a wild guess) that is an $8.5 billion per year increase in income. Most costs are in the past (R&D), so it could add $5 billion in earnings per year (the biggest expenses would be sales & marketing and taxes. COGS would be a minor factor). So: way more than $70 per share, unless a competitor comes up with something better and cheaper.
    Dec 7 12:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Still Own Nvidia [View article]
    Using cash from past glory days to buy stock is great for current investors wanting to cash out. For long-term investors, and potential new investors, you have to wonder what will happen when the cash runs out. I'd rather see NVDA innovate more and get out of being a (nearly) pure graphics play. They bring very little to the smartphone market, compared to Qualcomm, Marvell, and a swarm of Chinese startups. Of the potential products they talk about, I like GRID best. And any attempt to minimize the damage from their shutout of the game console market and the x86 APU market is just asking to be blindsided in 2014 and 2015. The rules of the game have changed.
    Nov 25 08:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protalix: Undervalued Growth, Plus A Possible Biotech Breakthrough [View article]
    Nice report. Worth checking out.
    Nov 25 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD: Geeks Gone Wild [View article]
    Great article. Hermann Grassmann, the inventor of modern math (vectors, matrices, linear algebra) would be proud. Hope IT departments are getting the message, and not just continuing to buy Intel because it is the cover-your-ass play. Long AMD.
    Nov 25 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agenus Valuation After Positive HerpV Vaccine Results [View article]
    13.5 months per the Valganciclovir GBM Swedish study:

    "For the standard of care alone, median OS survival rate is 14.6 months." Agenus press release:
    Nov 11 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Dip In Silicon Graphics, But At Lower Levels [View article]
    Mostly agree. The segment to watch in 2014 is storage. I am still long but at a greatly reduced level of holding. I did well buying the last time SGI dipped below $10. SGI simply lacks a culture of making profits for shareholders, so increasing revenues may not be matched with decent operating margins. Scientists love SGI supercomputers, but apparently are better at bargaining over price than SGI sales people are.
    Oct 14 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cantel Medical: Proven Aggressive Growth And Stock Returns [View article]
    Oops! It is all Cantel! I also own & write about Hansen. I'll see if I can re-edit the article. Thanks for letting me know!
    Sep 27 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotechs In Nasdaq 100 Recap [View article]
    Thanks. I have a long list, but I hope to get to JAZZ before too long.
    Sep 21 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment