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William Meyers

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  • Applied Materials Is Substantially Overvalued [View article]
    The story is that process technology is changing as we go to lower nm and 3d. More steps are needed to make the technology work, which means more machines, which should mean higher revenues for AMAT and other semiconductor capital equipment makers. It pays a nice dividend too. I remain long.
    Jan 8 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crossroads: A Veteran Patent Stock About To Finally Come Of Age? [View article]
    Garbage in, garbage out. If a company can't make a product they can sell enough of to earn a profit, why should vague patent claims be treated as inventions? What is the value of these basically useless "inventions" within the the real storage market?

    If you can get past my cynicism, what would be the effect of recent anti-trolling rulings and the possible anti-troll law passed by the House of Representatives?

    disclaimer: I am long HILL (Dot Hill). They actually make good products and sell them, and have their own substantial patent portfolio.
    Dec 13 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences: A Unique Stallion [View article]
    While it will take a while to ramp, I see 100,000 patients per year as a reasonable estimate for Sovaldi and later Gilead combo oral one pill per day Hep C cures. I've been cautious about GILD this year, and still wonder if the new pricing will stick given the competition, but based on estimated new revenue less COGS, S&M expense and taxes, my initial estimate is that, at a reasonable PE, GILD should be around $110 per share by 2015 if not earlier. I've been long GILD since 2007.
    Dec 9 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences Hepatitis C Approval May Be Factored In [View article]
    And now we know the price for Sovaldi (formerly Sofosbuvir) will be $85 thousand for genotypes 1, 2, and 4, and $170 thousand for type 3. But at that price there will be price resistance, and possibly some older or less effective therapies will use pricing as a competitive advantage. Still, at 100,000 patients per year (just a wild guess) that is an $8.5 billion per year increase in income. Most costs are in the past (R&D), so it could add $5 billion in earnings per year (the biggest expenses would be sales & marketing and taxes. COGS would be a minor factor). So: way more than $70 per share, unless a competitor comes up with something better and cheaper.
    Dec 7 12:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Provenge: A Major Focus At The European Cancer Congress 2013 [View article]
    There is no doubt DNDN is not out of the woods just because it has EU approval. But patients will fail Xtandi, so giving it to them earlier just clears the bases for the Provenge label period. I am longer DNDN than I was before the news, but at a very safe level within my portfolio. To get any real traction DNDN will have to show another quarter of significant revenue improvement and significant cost cutting. And then another quarter on top of that.
    Sep 18 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon Revenue And Cost Trends [View article]
    Thanks again for all the comments that help paint a complete picture of Dendreon. Note that while U.S. Provenge revenues have not picked up much, they have stabilized. Either the bulls or bears could turn out to be right, depending on future events. I'm not arguing that Dendeon is running out of time to right itself, I just see that the ingredients are there to do it.
    Aug 14 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microchip For Solid Growth And Dividends [View article]
    Thanks for all the feedback. No, Microchip did not miss a dividend, but "accelerated" one due to changes in the tax laws. MCHP has been increasing dividends by small increments. I figure that with $138.9 million free cash flow in the June quarter, and guidance to higher revenue and non-GAAP EPS in the September quarter, it is possible the dividend increases will become more substantial as we move forward.
    Aug 11 02:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Now Time To Consider Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals? [View article]
    I like the management, partly because Spiro won't allow himself to be manipulated by "the street." The reason I am building a long position in CYCC slowly is I don't see Phase III data coming in until the 2nd half of 2014. I think there is a well over 50% chance sapacitabine data will be good enough for FDA approval. And it should 10x its current value if approved. That's a bet I'll take, in reasonable doses.
    Jun 3 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia CEO Thinks Cash Is Not Needed For Competition [View article]
    thanks for the corrections. CEO name is Jen-Hsun Huang. I listen and take notes on each Nvidia conference call, and at some point adopted the wrong spelling based on phonetics. My apologies to all. Shows you can't fact check too much.

    I know it is heresy to question share buy-backs. They seem like an easy stock-price fix. Clearly management is confident. But so were mini-computer vendors even as their era came to an end. I think Nvidia made the right choice entering the tablet and smartphone market. I'm just not as confident of Nvidia's eventual triumph. Or of anyone's in the space. It is still up for grabs.
    May 24 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Neither Bullish Nor Bearish Stories Hold Up [View article]
    Great comments as usual. Process technology counts, but so does architecture, software stacks, OEM engineering biases, pricing, and consumer preferences. I just listened to the Marvell CEO say they could take 10% of the smartphone SoC market. They plan to do it, and Intel plans to break in, and Nvidia plans to take more share with Tegra, and Apple and Qualcomm plan to maintain or expand share. Not everyone can be right. In general, I would bet on current chip maker relationships with current successful OEMs being maintained until proven otherwise. Thanks again for your comments.
    May 23 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Akamai's 2013 Outlook Is Bright [View article]
    Right. I think it will be helpful to analysts and investors to see cost of revenues. Operating expense categories will be more understandable too. Net income should not be affected.
    Mar 12 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyclacel Explained: Answers About The Long Misunderstood And Undervalued Biotech [View article]
    Good explanation of misundestood CYCC. Most important point: in AML frailty and age are key factors. The sapacitabine statistics are quite good so far when age is factored in. The main risk is that the sample of patients might contain an unusually high percentage of non-responders. But that should be balanced by the risk that the sample contains an unusually high number of good responders.
    Jan 25 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Marvell Technology Group And Its Not So Marvelous Outlook [View article]
    This article ignores both Marvell's real problems and its real opportunities in the rapidly changing semiconductor market. The Sutardjas have built up a great company from nothing. They have a history of responding to technology changes by introducing new products that benefit everyone (except their competitors). If you don't like what's going on in the China mobile phone market, or don't believe in a RIM comeback, you might short the stock. But if you see the opportunities with Google TV, networking advances, and expansion of smartphone chips to customers beyond RIM, then buying now makes sense. I have been long MRVL for years now, though occasionally I trim or add to my position.
    Jan 23 02:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Provenge: Interview With Head, Large Urology Group Practice [View article]
    Excellent article. It will be interesting to see if the Dr. Kapoor's experience is part of a trend that will show up when we get second quarter results. I am long DNDN.
    Mar 8 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Real World Costs Impacting Dendreon's Provenge Sales [View article]
    Great article, and many good points in the feedback. Considering how slow ramps have been for other, far less complicated cancer therapies, in retrospect Dendreon guidance for the second half of 2011 was never believable (but I admit I believed it). Obviously their sales team has a long way to go. I don't believe we will have an accurate picture of Provenge demand until the second half of 2012. That makes an appropriate stock price at this point anyone's guess, but I am long, and accumulating.
    Oct 10 03:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment