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William Packer

 
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  • Medley Capital's NAV At Risk: Oil Rampage Continues [View article]
    Technical analysis works. History backs it and it tells you support and resistance levels.

    The oil and gas assets.. We don't have much information on them as they are privately held companies. But we can assume they are facing pressure due to the declines in oil prices. Maybe they don't default... Obviously MCC knows more about the financials because they invested in the companies.

    This article was simply to bring up a few key risks to MCC shareholders and talk a little about the valuation of MCC as it relates to timing a basic purchase.

    If you don't believe in technicals, that is your own choice.. But I use them all the time when trading because it works. It's not a 100% guarantee a stock won't break a support level or go above a resistance level... But it gives you a better success rate on your trades.

    I am not predicting anything at all.. Just giving people some info on the risks. I am long the stock right now so.. Obviously I am comfortable with the risks in the article at this price... But perhaps its a better idea to get long the stock when it actually starts to go up and not trying to catch a falling knife... So maybe let the dividend cut and other issues work themselves out and see if the stock confirms a stronger upward bias... Then buy the stock when it has that trend in place...that was my suggestion to people looking to start a position here in MCC.
    Jan 14, 2015. 11:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital's NAV At Risk: Oil Rampage Continues [View article]
    DW, it is the risks to MCC... An article focused on the risks... Just food for thought.
    Jan 14, 2015. 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital's NAV At Risk: Oil Rampage Continues [View article]
    NV_GARY, give it some time. MCC is off the lows of the day by a good deal. I have been buying today and I am sure that I am not alone. I am sorry about the article disclosure. That is an error on my part. It should read that I may initiate a position at any time.
    Jan 14, 2015. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital's NAV At Risk: Oil Rampage Continues [View article]
    NV_Gary, who said it was ever truly over with? I started buying back at $9.05 today. Still buying and it's $9.14. How have you been?

    I bought some $HLSS today, 29k shares at $13.75 and just sold out of that batch.

    I should have enough buying power to own 90k shares of MCC now without leverage. That is 3,000 more shares than previously! So that is a nice little bump for myself in terms of value generation.

    I am trying to focus on idea generation and reporting information that investors should consider to help them better understand the risks... I don't want people to overly focus on my positions.. because I tend to shift them around a lot. Obviously I am happy owning shares in MCC at todays prices. Oil clearly bottomed and is going back up.
    Jan 14, 2015. 02:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital's NAV At Risk: Oil Rampage Continues [View article]
    In liquidation, I believe $MCC is worth more than $11.00. Hope that helps, darnoc111.
    Jan 14, 2015. 02:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TICC Capital Corp, A 40%+ Total Return For 2015 [View article]
    Aurelien, TICC took a mark-to-market write down on their investment portfolio due to the volatility we temporarily saw in Q3 2014. It was almost entirely related to the CLO mark-to-market. Investors did not like the mark-down and the sector itself has been facing pressure. HTGC is INTERNALLY managed, which has been a huge benefit for them and their valuation. I do not follow HRZN closely.
    Jan 14, 2015. 12:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TICC Capital Corp, A 40%+ Total Return For 2015 [View article]
    The entire sector has taken a beating and $TICC fell in sympathy. Sector concerns are oil and gas loans (TICC has none), rising interest rates hurting profit margins due to libor floors not kicking in until fed funds hits 1%. But reality is, level of portfolio run-off + reinvestment at better spreads will drive earnings sustainability and eventual growth. I don't see rising rates as something that would hurt spreads over the longer term. Spreads tend to widen during periods of rising rates for the high yield loan market. Spreads actually improved last quarter for TICC and they should continue to improve in Q1 2015 due to the new credit facility pricing.

    PSEC had cut their dividend and took much of the sector down with them... Removal from the Russell index caused some of the weakness.... (All BDCs were removed), and then finally tax loss selling after all that.
    Jan 13, 2015. 06:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TICC Capital Corp, A 40%+ Total Return For 2015 [View article]
    PhilCA, I would not be surprised to see more BDCs repurchasing shares in the future... thus winding down their capital. That, in a way, is like self-liquidating with an added benefit for the existing shareholders. I don't think we will see many acquisitions for the BDC sector... and I doubt that we see any go private.

    I think the best way to look it is.... to acquire more shares when they are trading at a discount by reinvesting your dividends.. and then stop reinvesting dividends when it trades above NAV. Another idea is to put new money to work in the sector on various discounted BDCs.. that will allow you to capture the value there and provide you with attractive returns over time.

    This is the time you want to look and see what BDCs are willing to buy back their shares. Share buybacks drive higher NII and NAVs.. so that is an important element for deciding on what to purchase. It also lets you know that management believes the stock is cheap relative to the asset base.
    Jan 13, 2015. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TICC Capital Corp, A 40%+ Total Return For 2015 [View article]
    You're welcome. TICC mostly invests in the equity tranche. Yes, m2m for CLOs can be a little volatile at times, but it's good to remember past performance and how these things tend to bounce back on their own from the volatility they experience. I also like how the managers of CLOs are able to be take advantage of an actively traded market for the securities in which they invest.
    Jan 13, 2015. 07:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital: Another Gift From Year-End Tax Loss Selling [View article]
    That yahoo user is me. Its very difficult for most people to keep up with how many trades I do, or how I build value through active management. I think it may be distracting for the seeking alpha subscriber to worry about my own personal positions. Rather, I'd like to focus your attention to the facts, opinions, and speculative ideas I present to the community. I believe I can offer readers valuable insight to various BDC and mREIT names in relation to their values. Thus readers can have food-for-thought for research purposes.

    Dividends are not as important as you think. You can sell at a loss, move into another company... let that company run 1-5% on the company you sold, sell the company you bought and buy back your old stock making a "spread profit." dividends are all about positive carry. When the stock goes ex-dividend.. the stock drops by the dividend amount automatically... so holding just to collect a dividend is nothing special. It is the positive carry that the investment generates that is important. Valuation is the most important factor to me.

    I do things for a lot of reasons. Right now, oil is tanking and thus MCC should continue to decline. I will be posting a much more detailed response in an article on why MCC is going to continue to decline shortly. I have already written an article on why $TICC will perform very well going forward. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 12, 2015. 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital: Another Gift From Year-End Tax Loss Selling [View article]
    Hvacs52, I just today am dumping my remaining mcc for TICC. I had been split 50/50 earlier.. But I trade often.. So I really shouldn't update about my positions.. Because they change so often. Let's just put it this way.. I plan on remaining 100% TICC after today and going forward for the foreseeable future... A big piece of that is due to oil prices tanking and TICC having no exposure + buyback in place.

    Probably why you can see TICC stable in price because of my buying and MCC tanking from (in part) my selling today
    Jan 12, 2015. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital: Another Gift From Year-End Tax Loss Selling [View article]
    I like $MCC, $TICC, $ACAS, $SLRC, $FSC , $BKCC..

    I submitted an article on $TICC an hour ago.

    The amount of positions I hold at one time varies.. but right now it is 50/50 split MCC and TICC. I am going to dump my MCC next week for 100% position in TICC. I use a trading approach which is based on a lot of different factors... and I have been very successful in the past at adding value that way. I sometimes post my trades on seeking alpha and then the reasons.. just give people some idea on my thoughts for the current valuations on two or more companies and how swapping between various companies can generate additional returns.
    Jan 10, 2015. 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital: Another Gift From Year-End Tax Loss Selling [View article]
    Abercrombie, you are correct in some respects.. but MCC makes No payday loans. Never did. They have the same management team.. and MCC is it's own company that shareholders own. They can't attack the company (MCC) itself.. but they can put the management team behind bars if found guilty of criminal fraud.. or perhaps they will just fine them. I also agree that it is not completely "risk-free" of the lawsuit... because of the risks to the manager. But I am not long OCN or AAMC or even MCC anymore. I am only long TICC. I made part of my case above in the comments section of this article for why TICC is a better investment.
    Jan 10, 2015. 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital: Another Gift From Year-End Tax Loss Selling [View article]
    About TICC CLOs... (see presentation of TICC in past)

    CLO Structure Proved Resilient
     CLO loss rates have been low
     Out of 4,118 tranches rated by Moody’s in 719 U.S. CLOs from 1996 to May 2012, only 32 or 0.8% of tranches
    suffered principal loss at maturity1
    – All of impaired tranches were from CLOs issued before 20021
    – Oxford Lane does not own any CLO investments issued prior to 2002
    Not all structured products are created equal, as demonstrated by the strong performance of
    CLOs through the financial crisis

    I will consider your suggestion of writing an article on TICC. But I still encourage you to look into TICC as well.. and perhaps you will see why I believe TICC has more value than MCC despite the current marks to book.
    Jan 9, 2015. 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital: Another Gift From Year-End Tax Loss Selling [View article]
    Cahaba is correct, it is not related to MCC directly.
    Jan 9, 2015. 09:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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