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William Packer  

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  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    It's called a "Relative Value Swap." I will be back later with more shares in MCC than ever before. This is because I operate in a way that allows for higher and higher share counts. FSC is more underpriced than MCC currently. This is why I have to be long FSC for the time being. Clearly you don't understand how I operate. Whether I sell at a loss or gain to build the value does not matter. The value filters through every time. This generates an ever increasing share count from the prior share count level that I had when I owned the stock previously. It's a mathematical formula I designed.
    Feb 28, 2015. 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    I still believe in MCC and I won't hesitate to sell some or all of my FSC to buy MCC if FSCs stock price materially outperformed MCCs. That said, the current valuation for FSC is pathetically cheap and warrants purchase.
    Feb 27, 2015. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    Why I sold MCC and bought FSC -
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance Corp.: A Strong Buy After The Company Cut Its Dividend [View article]
    Look at the date on my article here.

    I warned about ARR and JMI a very long time ago. It's shocking to me why anyone would have bought it in the first place.
    Feb 27, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Javelin Mortgage book value off about 10% in Q4 [View news story]
    Of course they destroyed their book value... They are the worst managers and I have always said they were. (See previous article on ARR and JMI from years ago)

    I don't know why anyone would buy them.
    Feb 26, 2015. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    I feel that MCC is less risky than those names mentioned, yes. I do know what i'm talking about and it's all about valuation, the management team's skill level, and the percentages invested in first lien/second lien or senior secured vs mezz/equity investments... and the how much leverage they are using. Good luck to you as well.
    Feb 26, 2015. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    In my opinion, I don't feel that PFLT, GBDC, GAIN, TPVG, NMFC, SUNS, TSLX, FSIC are any less risky than MCC. I mention TCAP because it's internally managed like MAIN. Low cost structure.

    ANd... non-accruals can happen to any of them. No BDC is safe then and we might as well all run for the hills.
    Feb 26, 2015. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    I disagree with your assessment that MCC is a train wreck. I also disagree that FSC is a yield-chaser stock with it's 10% dividend yield. Surely most BDCs that are internally managed like TCAP among other higher quality names yield close to 10%. Yet, in the case of TCAP... it trades at a huge premium to book value. MCC also used to enjoy a very big p/b level.

    Do you not think that TCAP cannot suffer the same non-accrual problems that MCC or FSC recently faced? TCAP ran into a non-accrual problem as well. Silly to think they didn't take a BV hit too... The bigger they are.. the harder they fall.
    Feb 26, 2015. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    That is good to hear. I am working on a new article for MCC. I hope it will provide some insight into why MCC is different from other externally managed BDCs and why I believe now is the time to be long MCC.
    Feb 26, 2015. 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital And The Cat And Mouse Game [View article]
    45CAL has nothing on me. He is referring to public commentary on SA. He took a few sentences I wrote and drew his own conclusions... later I corrected him on his facts and he apologized.

    I do not take a buy and hold approach to investing. I may take a longer term view... but I will not hesitate to trade in and out of positions if the market conditions/fundamentals dictate a change of position. This has been a very effective tool for value generation over time and I plan to continue trading within the BDC/mREIT space depending on market conditions and other factors in order to preserve + grow value.
    Feb 26, 2015. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    I don't like $PSEC but I do not see large declines in PSECs NAV coming. Instead, I see PSEC having a relatively stable NAV. Why are you projecting declines at PSEC?

    (I have no stock position in PSEC and no plans to start one. )

    I disagree with you on TICC. There was no "conservative mark" in TICCs books. The CLOs are mark-to-market, just like stocks are.

    You can argue that the CLOs will see appreciation if oil goes back up or the leveraged loan market improves... but we won't know for a while... and the market will panic between now and then.

    There is no reason to continue holding TICC at these price levels. I am scared for you... if that is your decision. I would rather you take up a more conservative position in MCC... wait out the fall out.. and buy TICC on the cheap $5-$6 range. Yeah, maybe a lot of what I say can be considered speculative.. you know... that's my job to speculate. No one is right 100% of the time.. but I feel that If I can help others make some money in this crazy world... make main street folks who invest have better lives... that is what I am trying to accomplish here... I don't mind differing point of views.. and I welcome that you have a different view point. We will who is correct over the next couple months.
    Feb 26, 2015. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    Tack, I believe the stock will be downgraded by various firms and that a huge decline to book value in one quarter warrants a deeper than average discount to book value in order to protect the new investors.
    Feb 26, 2015. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    Hello Eli,

    Some investors might call me crazy for what I'm about to say next. However, I think that $TICCs stock price is going to drop down to $5.30 - $5.50 per share. I do not think it will stay down in that range though. This would be a temporary drop before it stabilizes near $6.00 - $6.50.

    My projected future trading range for TICC is $5.30 to $6.50 per share.
    Feb 26, 2015. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    TICC just reported...

    "As of December 31, 2014, net asset value per share was $8.64 compared with the net asset value per share as of September 30, 2014 of $9.40. "

    My estimate was 8.78. NAV dropped 0.14 more than I expected.

    I was correct that the NAV was at serious risk from the spreads blowing out. I hope I saved some of you from the blast.
    Feb 26, 2015. 08:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Risks Of Medley Management And How To Correctly Time Your Purchase [View article]
    You're welcome. Thanks for the feedback.
    Feb 25, 2015. 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment