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William Packer

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  • Another slide in book value at American Capital; early Q1 looking good [View news story]
    Rates were 3% when this book value was taken.. and since then duration gap is even bigger... book value could be $26-$27 range today if the gap was widened. Definitely meaningfully higher.
    Feb 3 04:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q4 2013 Income Statement Projection (Part 3) [View article]
    Scott, i think you underestimate the rebalancing actions. It's hard to project the true performance of AGNC with all the rebalancing they do. But you do the best job that one could possibly do. I don't even want to think about all the work you put into these articles.. it's so much... I hope SA is giving you at least $500 every time you write one of these. Thanks 4 all your hard work.
    Jan 30 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstead in good spot of yield curve [View news story]
    i dont like ARMs.. libor isnt going up anytime soon and when it does.. maybe it goes up 0.50 or .75 bp... but certainly not more than that. the future of rates will never be like the 90s or 2005. fed funds will be stuck under 1% for another 5 to 10 years. another crisis is probably due as well so then it just goes back to 0 again. think student loans and consumer leveraged assets.
    Jan 30 11:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next mREIT target for Bulldog? [View news story]
    The best target for Bulldog would likely be $CYS. Deep discount to book value, easy to value assets (all agency). Low market cap.
    Jan 29 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q4 2013 Income Statement Projection (Part 3) [View article]
    vic, why did u buy agnc? income? they are the best managed mreit.
    Jan 23 01:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    Rokgpsman, to hedge a huge short treasury position probably. They are trying to capture the discount.. going duration neutral.
    Jan 5 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Q4 Better Than It Seems [View article]
    tstreet, look at ANH mreit. 7 percent yield and they cut 30 pct and stock went up. ok.. so dividend yield is not the driver of share price
    Jan 4 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Q4 Better Than It Seems [View article]
    This really didn't say anything new. What's funny is that i have submitted articles to SA that provided complex strategies as well as deeper insight into AGNC and they have been denied - claiming that the articles didn't really add any new insight. Did you submit this as a premium article? honestly, your time writing this could have been better spent trading futures. i make so much more money there than in these stocks, even though most of my money is tied up in stocks. (i have 21,500 shares of MTGE). i'd be glad to help you with futures trading if you are new there. private message me if you want to learn more.
    Jan 4 09:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    The profile is up-to-date. you have to scroll through it to see all the updates. I don't update on my futures positions there anymore because I move between long and short positions there way too much to update that. I think if you see AGNC up more than MTGE tomorrow you should sell AGNC and move to MTGE as a buy and hold. You will have less rate risk there and management has more capabilities to protect shareholder value.
    Jan 2 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One mREIT That Will Easily Rise In 2014 [View article]
    $JMI is a great short here if you believe rates are going up. You can hedge your bets by getting long $MTGE which has outperformed $JMI consistently.. not talking about the stock price.. but the actual company performance economically.
    Jan 2 06:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    yeah you'd have to look in my profile for an update... i update there usually.. Maybe i forgot this time. I'd have to take a look. I am long 21,500 MTGE and retained extra cash. I swap between AGNC and MTGE regularly... based on the spread. $1.50 to 1.60 spread means SELL MTGE, swap to AGNC. $1.70 to $2.00 spread, means SELL AGNC, buy MTGE. It all varies.. it really does... i mean.. it depends what interest rates are doing and other technical factors.. but i move between those two stocks... I also actively trade in the treasury futures market, which has been very profitable for me.
    Jan 2 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    VTFI, AGNC currently has no means to purchase MSR securities. MTGE closed on a servicer in Q4, which allows for the purchase and servicing of MSR for MTGE.
    Jan 2 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    mobile, i disagree. The 10-yr treasury has pretty much topped out at 3% and non-agency prices keep going up really fast. So MTGE is definitely a buy.
    Jan 2 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    VTFI, consider selling AGNC and buying MTGE instead Plus the yield is higher.
    Jan 1 07:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    Brian G, No. MTGE now owns a servicer. So they have access to the MSR and whole loan markets now. That makes the differences between MTGE and AGNC even larger than ever before. MSRs move up in value as rates rise and currently yield 8-10% on an unlevered basis. Whole loans yield 9-13%
    Jan 1 12:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
238 Comments
271 Likes