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William Packer  

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  • BAML gets bearish on mortgage REITs [View news story]
    That depends... if the 10 year rate and mortgage rates go up as the fed raises rates.. then spread will stay wide... dividends will stay high.
    Jun 18, 2015. 11:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BAML gets bearish on mortgage REITs [View news story]
    " we are increasingly concerned that higher rates, wider spreads and increased volatility will weigh on mREIT stocks"

    Funny! So they tell us that they are worried about wider spreads but then talk about the potential for a flatter yield curve... you can't have it both ways.. damn, this report smells.
    Jun 18, 2015. 10:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital: Huge Insider Buying And Cheap Valuation [View article]
    Can you explain further about the original fund? I'd be interested to learn more about it. Thanks a bunch
    Jun 17, 2015. 12:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital: Huge Insider Buying And Cheap Valuation [View article]
    I figured you would say that, darnoc111. However, the size of the buyback at MCC is very tiny.. it is unlikely to move the needle much at all. It's for window dressing purposes only. So they can tell people, "Hey! We care about investors! we are buying back stock. See?" meanwhile they are going to drag this buyback over the course of 4 quarters... like the pace they are going.. it's something they can keep saying over the next 4 quarters... talking about how they are buying back stock. lol. The truth is... MCC's portfolio is more risky than PSEC... and MCC invests in portfolio loan sizes that are smaller than PSEc and with not as much diversification. So concentration risk is much bigger... AND... PSEC has UPs in their portfolio.. much more equity upside from their one stop buyout business etc... they have ways to create value rather than just have charge offs from non-accrual which means book can only really go down over time (except for the cases when NII exceeds distributions)... That is MCC.. they are just a credit book. nothing special there... yes, they drive a good and high yield.. but there isnt really an upside kicker... and NAV has been dropping much faster than PSEC.
    Jun 15, 2015. 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital: Huge Insider Buying And Cheap Valuation [View article]
    Also, to note... you may want to take a look at PSEC. The stock is snapping back in an uptrend.. should be good for $8.24 to $8.54... (80 to 83 cents on the dollar)
    Jun 15, 2015. 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital: Huge Insider Buying And Cheap Valuation [View article]
    Taxman... why did you pay over book value for a credit book? ....... Doesn't make any sense to me.

    Anyways, message to the author... if you like MCC... you'd love MDLY... makes more sense to own MDLY if you believe MCC is going back to book value.... because if MCC does go back to book.. MDLY will double to $24.... I suspect you may already know this.
    Jun 15, 2015. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Floating Rate - Time To Re-Examine This Beaten-Down Senior Secured Loan BDC [View article]
    The percentages will not change. FSFR will continue to be a lower cost fee structure as it grows... It's about the percentage of expense not absolute dollars in fees.
    Jun 13, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital - Lies, Distortions And The Truth [View article]
    institutions are making all the money in PSEC today while retail investors are left confused on why the stock is going up. This isn't your ordinary bounce. See my stock talk commentary for more info. I guess the following really is true.... "Every battle is won before it is ever fought."
    Jun 11, 2015. 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital - Lies, Distortions And The Truth [View article]
    Robert, I took a lot of heat for that comment.. People fought me and stood up for PSEC. lol. Those folks got burned and my original commentary now has become main stream point-of-view.

    Bottom line: I am more of a trader than an investor and over time that mentality has translated into strong returns for myself and clients.

    Even if PSEC's management are "crooks," This stock is headed higher .. to at least $8.

    Also, PSEC's management is going to be forced into cutting fees + buyback at some point... It's just a matter of time. The assets are real and the quality of the portfolio is quite good. If you see an announcement about fee cuts or buyback.. you buy it on the news and make even more $
    Jun 11, 2015. 12:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital - Lies, Distortions And The Truth [View article]
    Xx, I sold my FSAM in between $10.15 and $10.20 per share sell average. I had bought FSAM at $10.66 I believe it was, cost average. 78,000 shares. You do the math on the loss... I take losses... I lose money on trades sometimes... But you neglect to mention that I got into this business with only $72K back in 2008 as a full time job and the growth I have experienced since then. Not too many people can claim what I can and be telling the truth. I do what I can to help others and I do have followers here who have used my advice to make good money for themselves. My clients also have made excellent returns over the years investing with me... And my AUM is higher today than at any point in history. My investment/trading style is not appropriate for everyone and I understand that. Best of luck to you xxavatarxx... Cute X's btw, I don't think I have seen that since grade school kids created those user names. :D those were the days! lol
    Jun 11, 2015. 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital - Lies, Distortions And The Truth [View article]
    koleffstephan, fundamentally, NAV has been very stable over the past 6 years... and while dividend returns are lower because we are no longer able to grow the portfolio at the previous pace... thus generating less fee income... I am happy to be earning 9.7% at book value. I think that even owning PSEC at book value will provide investors with positive economic returns over time. Those that are selling, at such ridiculously low prices, are giving up an excellent asset at a fire sale discount.

    The managers are greedy but aren't we all. Should the fees be 2% of base and 20% incentive? No, I think that is too high... and eventually management will cave and reduce those fees. A reduction in base to 1.5% from 2% would generate another 10% more income to pay out to investors each year. Combined with a future rising interest rate environment, managements initiatives to increase NII, etc, I think the dividend could return back to 0.10 per share or better... and those holding their shares will be rewarded with a higher stock price and a higher dividend on their shares.
    Jun 10, 2015. 03:34 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital - Lies, Distortions And The Truth [View article]
    well said. I recently bought 105,000 shares of $PSEC at a cost average under $7.50.

    $7.18 per share is roughly 70 cents on the dollar. So the price seems to be supported by that level for now and my thoughts are that the stock will trade closer to 85 or 90 cents on the dollar as time goes by...(medium term) and perhaps one day regains parity with NAV or better. (longer term target)
    Jun 10, 2015. 01:40 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PSEC: Portfolio Rehab, Step 2 - Know Who Works For You [View article]
    mongo1936, commissions are very low for most online brokerages. I pay $6 per trade... It amounts to less than 1% of one penny per share cost... per trade. So very very tiny fraction there of a penny per share. Every 1 penny = $1,050 change to valuation. 105,000 shares owned.
    Jun 10, 2015. 11:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Has Become Absurdly Cheap [View article]
    Yeah.... Cut fees, buyback stock, increase dividend and watch price go above NAV... Then issue more shares to grow AUM for the manager and make up for it that way.
    Jun 8, 2015. 08:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PSEC: Portfolio Rehab, Step 2 - Know Who Works For You [View article]
    You should buy it back at $7.50 and pocket the change. Think about it... Your sale at $7.90 and buyback at $7.50 will result in additional shares and that will translate into a higher value based on nav and an even higher dividend income. You can trade these vehicles relative to other bdcs and generate alpha.... So the nav value of your investment... Shares multiplied by nav price... Stays high or even grows.. Even if nav slowly comes down... But over the past 6 years... Nav is actually flat.... But huge dividends were paid... PSEC is a buy at these prices.... Nav is relatively stable, high quality earnings, mostly recurring income now... Like 97% vs 80 something percent a year ago... I just bought shares today near $7.50.
    Jun 8, 2015. 06:45 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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