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William Packer  

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  • Excellent Growth And Dividend Opportunity In Medley Management [View article]
    I will do my best aretailguy. I will update again after the conference call. I wouldn't overly concern yourself with the volatility as of late. I think the market will give us a higher price in the near to medium term. Personally, despite the report not living up to my projections entirely, the stock should still be selling at $10.60 today or better based on comps.(FSAM vs MDLY) Selling or reducing a position size below $10.60 seems like giving away free money to me... Personally, I think MDLY is worth more than that but I am just trying to give a ball park estimate where it should be trading vs market price. I have no intention of selling my MDLY, even at $10.60. I want to be perfectly clear there.
    Aug 13, 2015. 01:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Excellent Growth And Dividend Opportunity In Medley Management [View article]
    Ok, closer observation looks like revenue was up, expenses down but then there is these other expenses not really listed but supposedly one-time charges. Not much detail given... And some sort of depreciation based on investments made but unrealized basis. So GAAP came in light because of unrealized loss on investments. But core income covered the dividend at 0.22. 0.22 was the same as last year when revenue was less. But somehow expenses were less and revenue more.. I am lost to what these miscellaneous charges are to our income as shareholders. The line items don't really provide much color to me. How am I suppose to model these unexpected and under-detailed expenses? It feels impossible to model that and it apparently has a huge impact on earnings.
    Aug 12, 2015. 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Senior Floating Rate's Fiscal Q3 2015 NII And NAV Projection [View article]
    Yes, you did. You definitely called it. I knew they were shady at times.. (and I accepted that) but this is on a level that takes corporate greed to new heights. It will be the end of them, in my opinion.

    My clients, as I posted earlier, are short FSAM, FSC, FSFR. I think it will work out well as a long term short and hold. :)

    As a hedge they are long MDLY, MCC, MAIN, TCAP.
    Aug 12, 2015. 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Excellent Growth And Dividend Opportunity In Medley Management [View article]
    So based on FSAM's stock price of about $9... yielding around 7.5%... MDLY should trade at $10.60 today. But that gives no premium to MDLY for their AUM growth and how they are doing things in a more shareholder friendly way than FSAM .. etc. MDLY should have a premium to FSAM....

    I'd still give MDLY a fair value of $12.50 to $14.. This $8 BS is just sad. lol.

    "Total fee earning AUM increased by 6%, or $185 million, to $3.4 billion at June 30, 2015 compared to March 31, 2015. The permanent capital vehicles' share of fee earning AUM remained consistent at 67% at June 30, 2015 and March 31, 2015."
    Aug 12, 2015. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Excellent Growth And Dividend Opportunity In Medley Management [View article]
    MEDLEY MANAGEMENT INC. REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2015 RESULTS AND DECLARES $0.20 PER SHARE DIVIDEND
    NEW YORK, Aug. 12, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Medley Management Inc. (NYSE: MDLY) today reported its financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2015.

    Highlights

    Total assets under management were $4.0 billion
    Fee earning assets under management were $3.4 billion
    Core Net Income Per Share was $0.22 for Q2 2015
    U.S. GAAP net income attributable to Medley Management Inc. was $0.14 per share for Q2 2015
    Declared $0.20 per share dividend for Q2 2015 payable on September 4, 2015
    Approved a $5 million share repurchase program
    "We are pleased with our second quarter performance," said Seth Taube, Co-Chief Executive Officer of Medley Management Inc. "The underlying trends that drive our core businesses remain favorable, and we remain well positioned to capitalize on the significant opportunity that exists in direct lending to the middle market."
    Aug 12, 2015. 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Excellent Growth And Dividend Opportunity In Medley Management [View article]
    My estimate missed because of performance fee revenue? What the heck. I guess that is related to institutional/private funds? I mean... I see incentive fees and base fees at sierra and MCC and those were up nicely quarter over quarter... so I knew that area improved... so why the miss?

    I like the share buyback.. $5 million = around 10% or so of the float at these prices. I think they plan on doing the buyback like they are at MCC... so over a period of a few quarters they will complete the buyback.

    Dividend maintained at 0.20... so that's a 10% qualified dividend yield at these prices.

    Fair trading value based on earnings would be $12.50 to $14... not 8.... For one, FSAM pays 0.17 and they are at $9.... and that company doesn't have the AUM growth MDLY has.
    Aug 12, 2015. 08:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Excellent Growth And Dividend Opportunity In Medley Management [View article]
    Yes, it was a market order when there was a large bid/ask spread. Some dummy selling a 500 share lot.
    Aug 12, 2015. 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance gets cut in management fees [View news story]
    Owens is married to FSAM. No one will take him now. He's FD. imo.
    Aug 11, 2015. 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Excellent Growth And Dividend Opportunity In Medley Management [View article]
    I keep looking at the pages at MDLY's website... I just realized they always say they declared at dividend on such and such date but it's never the date they tell us the dividend amount. So look at the history for 2014 for dividends...

    Declared 11/10/2014 but there is no press release for that date. So you look at the press releases page and you see they announced it on their earnings day which was 3 days later on 11/13/2014.

    But maybe, just maybe someone was at the board meeting on Monday and they put the 0.30 dividend in there when they weren't suppose to.. like maybe it was sent to us early... and maybe they really do declare 0.30. I don't know. But based on my analysis they DID earn more money in the June 30 quarter compared to march 31.. By my estimates they made 0.295 per share.. but does that translate into a 0.30 dividend or will they come in at 0.24-0.25? or Will they be ultra conservative and stay at 0.20? I don't know. They had a few new hires lately.. and so my thoughts are... it will cost them maybe 0.01 per share of earnings going forward.. so maybe 0.24 is the new dividend rate based on 0.28 to 0.30 net income per share...or at least for this quarter... and if growth stays high... maybe there is further increases from there.
    Aug 11, 2015. 06:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance gets cut in management fees [View news story]
    DID YOU SEE WHAT THEY DID TO FSFR? LOL!!!!! CUTE HUH?

    and I love how TODD called the dilutive equity issuance a RE-IPO. CUTE reinvention of the words "DILUTIVE EQUITY RAISE FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE MANAGER"

    Dividends cut for FSFR... They increase to sucker people in and then cut it.
    Aug 11, 2015. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Senior Floating Rate's Fiscal Q3 2015 NII And NAV Projection [View article]
    FSAM deserves to be $0 per share. $0. In my opinion. This family of companies ran by FSAM is complete trash. Should be locked away. lol seriously. How sad.
    Aug 11, 2015. 04:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Senior Floating Rate's Fiscal Q3 2015 NII And NAV Projection [View article]
    I like this part:

    Christopher Nolan - MLV & Company
    As that recall the earnings from FSAM is projections for growth or capital raises by FSFR were dialed back roughly six months ago to basically zero. I'm just working from memory here, so roughly six months ago the publically treated manager for FSFR dialed back its own expectations for growth. And what's the thinking about management where you do an equity raise for you basically dilute book value per share by 15% to 20% and the market will actually start rewarding you with above NAV evaluation. Was that real expectations?

    Todd Owens - President
    I guess what I would say is we have sent to last several quarters ramping this vehicle and deploying the capital. And we have now done that and how a snapshot of what the operating performance is going to be, I think that it maybe -- you can make the argument that we sort of taken a dividend action last quarter. But we really wanted to make sure we had all of the facts in front of us in terms of the overall operating performance in terms of where we set the dividend level. We feel like we have that now and so we’ve taken the action that we’ve taken to reset the dividend.
    Aug 11, 2015. 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Excellent Growth And Dividend Opportunity In Medley Management [View article]
    A lot of people lost money because of this error of 0.30. I put a lot of clients into MDLY because of it and they are down big because I saw the 0.30 posted on MDLY's website yesterday, 8/10/2015. My entire asset management business is in serious trouble because of it. I took a screen shot of the 0.30 dividend before it was taken down... And I am considering giving it to my clients because they are asking about it. But I am hoping that they declare a 0.30 dividend so my hand won't be forced because I worry they may seek damages against the company for their mistake.
    Aug 11, 2015. 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Excellent Growth And Dividend Opportunity In Medley Management [View article]
    well, I think based on what we know about fees at Sierra and MCC as posted above... We know the quarter should beat estimates for MDLY. Now, the issue is... the stock trades like crap lately - following oil. MCCs write-downs on the quarter had to do with the oil warrants (equity positions) while their credit book remained in good condition. That stuff just moves around in value and is pretty normal. i mean, I could have called it that the oil warrants would decrease due to oil prices. Silly to think they would have been flawless on those. But the portfolio income stayed constant @ MCC and they (MCC) earned their dividend. management fees were basically unchanged Q/Q at MCC.
    Aug 11, 2015. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Excellent Growth And Dividend Opportunity In Medley Management [View article]
    They probably won't tell us the real dividend amount until they report earnings tomorrow.
    Aug 11, 2015. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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