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William Packer

 
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  • Prospect Capital: How Secure Is The 12% Dividend Yield? [View article]
    stop-loss on stocks is kinda lame.. all the MMs see your order and if you are a bigger fish they will fry you. Just watch the price and watch how much it says your stock is down from cost basis. If you get a bad quarterly... you sell your stock in after hours using limit orders... get out of it before it really starts to sell off. Faster you cut losses when there is good reason to sell.. the better.

    If the stock trades at a deep discount to book value.. 0.85x or 0.80x.. you BUY THAT. There are some situations like recessions or scandals that might be too risky.. but in a company like PSEC.. if you see a 0.80x or 0.85x book value.. you just buy it and hold your nose... collect the dividends and wait until you get back to book to sell.
    Aug 26 08:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continuation Of Defensive Approach In 2Q Forces Change Of Thesis On ARMOUR From Bullish To Neutral [View article]
    iknowzip, you can't worry about spread risk like that.. if you are worried about spreads you take leverage down, short TBA, and buy some 5 year treasuries instead of agency mbs. But really.. it's NOT something mortgage REITs typically try to "hedge." It's just part of the business.. spreads move around some.
    Aug 26 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continuation Of Defensive Approach In 2Q Forces Change Of Thesis On ARMOUR From Bullish To Neutral [View article]
    You obviously don't actively trade in the fixed income space. If volatility is low - you buy. If volatility goes up you start adding hedges. And you never do anything in one burst.. you let the trend be your friend and add to winning positions. never let a winning trade turn into a losing one... And you short TBA/Treasury when things are selling off if it is for some sort of reason.. like a economic news event... or geopolitical.. with a reasonable stop-loss. if volatility really starts to pick up in both directions and you don't know what direction things might take ultimately, you add swaptions. Your swap position really doesn't move around too much... realistically it should cover about 60 to 75% of your REPO. The leverage changes all the time based on how things are moving and what kind of exposure you want to the move... but when you get to quarter end.. you have to window-dress the leverage.. basically... you bring it to the lower end of the range.. that way you look less exposed if rates back up and your stock price won't get hit as bad as your peers.
    Aug 26 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Prospect Capital's Earnings For Fiscal Q4 2014 And My Reaction To The Results [View article]
    I agree with Rob. The stock is more likely to go down. $9.29 PT here or 0.88 p/b.
    Aug 26 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Prospect Capital's Earnings For Fiscal Q4 2014 And My Reaction To The Results [View article]
    What if it's trading at over 10% discount to NAV? Guess that's not a buy? Since you said 5 to 10% discount is a buy. Or did you mean anything greater than 5%? I wouldn't touch PSEC for myself unless it was trading 0.85x NAV. Then I would hold it until it got to 0.95x book and collect the dividends along the way. I like having that margin of safety.
    Aug 26 06:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: How Secure Is The 12% Dividend Yield? [View article]
    Look, PSEC is a good investment. 1.00 per year of NII is OK and provides a dividend yield of 9.5% around NAV. That's good. Around 4x better than treasury bonds. NAV after return of capital is largely unchanged and stable. Why cry about this? Also, PSEC normally has better earnings then this.. Originations were down.. It was a one time thing. When short rates go up next year the dividend coverage will definitely go up even more.. Should easily cover at that point.
    Aug 26 02:15 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency In Prime Position To Benefit From Lower Interest Rate Scenario [View article]
    I highly recommend you look up and review the presentation AGNC gave for it's Q2 2012 report. See page 7 and page 28 of that report. Just to give you an idea of what could happen. Reality is, AGNC has historically been very good with hedging it's portfolio. I think everyone in the fixed income world got caught offsides in the QE3 program because everyone thought prepayments would go up and rates would fall. They were all wrong because the taper fears took hold immediately after the program went into effect.
    Aug 23 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: When The CEO Buys $1 Millon In Shares, I Listen [View article]
    So the CEO spent like 9 days of their pay on the common shares.. who cares.
    Aug 16 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: When The CEO Buys $1 Millon In Shares, I Listen [View article]
    I like AGNC better, but most of the Mreit sector is very cheap.
    Aug 15 01:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Notes from American Capital earnings call [View news story]
    Look at the NAV change... They did perform well... They are very quick to react to changing market conditions... Excellent traders. Very good performance from IPO to now.
    Aug 13 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arlington Asset up 2.5% after earnings [View news story]
    ummm... "Book value per share of $31.51u p from $33.10 at the start of the year."

    isn't that down? not up? lol
    Aug 10 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency In Prime Position To Benefit From Lower Interest Rate Scenario [View article]
    Exactly my point. The stock is severely undervalued. Both mtge and Agnc are....


    Liquid assets, nice yield, improving NAV.
    Aug 7 05:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One mREIT That Will Easily Rise In 2014 [View article]
    I didn't want to pay for the premium, and puts lack liquidity.
    Aug 5 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One mREIT That Will Easily Rise In 2014 [View article]
    Chris, it's only off the lows because of shorts covering to lock in profits. It will go down later. I was never able to find any shares to short. Very depressing.
    Aug 5 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras Does Well To Offer Safe Yield But Suffers From Absence Of Growth Catalysts [View article]
    Bruce... That's not true. Mreits are hedge funds.. basically. They trade the paper.. the place hedges along different parts of the curve... they have various strategies etc. With HTS they have short duration assets... I wouldn't say that are all that sensitive to rates on the long end of the curve. If spreads blew out yeah.... but slow gradual rise.. no.

    Look @ WMC.. they are actually negative duration.. so as rates rise book goes up. 0.5 yrs negative duration. But WMC also holds a lot of non-agency paper and is building that platform out.

    Look @ AGNC... they have been able to grow book value over the past 5 years... many times in a rising rate environment.. but they did fuck up in 2013... they are going to rebuild the value though.. I have a lot of confidence in that team.. Cheap too. But if you are going to buy in the space... i'd go with WMC and MTGE.
    Aug 5 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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