Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

William Packer  

View William Packer's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Fifth Street Finance Has 50% Upside From These Prices [View article]
    Bankruptcy still is not on the table, and earnings are still positive. BDCs are not in favor in the market... Yes, I still think they could trade at NAV again someday. I used to own BDCs priced at 0.10 cents on the dollar in 2009. So that just goes to show how irrational the market can be. Fsc benefits from rising rates, as does FSFR. Yet both are in the dumps.
    Jul 21, 2015. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Management And The Brilliant Spin-Off [View article]
    divident chasers
    Jul 12, 2015. 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Management And The Brilliant Spin-Off [View article]
    PSEC or any BDC investing at this point is the worst idea since 2008. Unless you are in it for a trade. You can thank your European and Chinese friends for that.
    Jul 12, 2015. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Management And The Brilliant Spin-Off [View article]
    The spin-off cannot happen above NAV. PERIOD. They are already valuing the CLOs above market prices.. My analyst contacts already assured me that the deal cannot get done at or above NAV. So that means they would have to take at least a 5% haircut.. maybe 10%... or maybe somewhere in-between. Thus the really low stock price of $7.30s....
    Jul 11, 2015. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Management And The Brilliant Spin-Off [View article]
    matt, the promise of higher rates is completely misguided. Even Yellen does not think they will raise them much, if at all. She says policy will remain highly accommodative for the foreseeable future. So if they raise rates in September of December, it would be only 10 basis points.. with a total of maybe 75 to 100 basis points after 2 years. That assumes the economy does not go off a cliff before then. PSECs libor floor bonds... which need to see a 100 basis point increase before getting a benefit... will never actually see a benefit. Instead, the bleed between 0 and 100 BP of rates increases will DAMAGE the NII of PSEC... possibly resulting in a dividend cut.
    Jul 11, 2015. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Management And The Brilliant Spin-Off [View article]
    Greek default via no deal will take it into the low to mid 6s... and if economy goes in the tank or write downs increase due to that.. you could see really low numbers by 2017. I think your risk assessment is terrible.
    Jul 11, 2015. 12:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Prospect Capital Going To Start Buying Back Stock? [View article]
    But they cannot, they are restricted to leverage of 1:1 if they want to pay dividends.
    Jul 4, 2015. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Prospect Capital Going To Start Buying Back Stock? [View article]
    You wouldn't need all 145 companies to collapse to kill $PSEC. You just need about half of them to get wiped out then equity goes to $0. That is the fun thing about leverage!
    Jul 4, 2015. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Mortgage declares $0.50 dividend [View news story]
    No, it doesn't hedge anything. AGNC doesn't go up when bonds rally anymore. I found that out long ago... And I run my treasury futures strategy separate of my AGNC/MTGE strategy
    Jun 29, 2015. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency income and book value slip in Q1 [View news story]
    Wrong on rates... 10 yr did back up to 2.50% and looks like it wants to go even higher. Spreads will stay wide.
    Jun 26, 2015. 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital: Huge Insider Buying And Cheap Valuation [View article]
    Robert, that is hard to say. I would imagine institutional short interest. Retail is too chicken to short high yield. Probably some guys going long PSEC and short MCC...
    Jun 21, 2015. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital's Large Q2 Book Value Loss May More Than Double By June 30 [View article]
    David, I would also like to refer you to slide 12 of AGNC's Q1 2015 earnings presentation. Please view that slide and see the 2/28/2015 section of the chart on the left. Notice the 0.82% increase to book value during a time when interest rates were actually rising. The 10 year bond rose yet AGNC book value increased. This has to do with the hedging dynamics and the basis. OK. So you it's much more complicated than simple saying.. oh look, interest rates have gone up and mbs prices are down, so AGNCs book value is down. No, it's not that simple. You need to look at the basis and understand if that is tightening or widening out... also you need to take active portfolio re-balancing into consideration. So please learn more about basis risk and the mechanics of mREITs as well as the mechanics of the treasury and swaps market before writing an another article on AGNC. Thank you and hope you enjoyed your weekend.
    Jun 21, 2015. 02:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital's Large Q2 Book Value Loss May More Than Double By June 30 [View article]
    David, 10 year treasury yields are falling because of Greek fears, not rising. OK. 10-yr may rise because of better than expected data, technical tradings, etc... but the Greek fear itself is a driving force to lower yields in U.S 10-yr bonds. OK. plain and simple. Bid-to-safety in 10s. Ask any bond trader how Greece is impacting treasury yields and they will tell you the same as I'm telling it to you.

    Also, QE for the U.S was a joke.. you would think that it would compress yields, right? but it didn't... because only the threat of QE did that.. but after enacted... yields pretty much rose over the next 6-9 months... because as soon as the program was authorized people started speculating on the taper... which the fed started talking about just 3 months later... so the hawkish fed jaw boning screwed up their master plan to cause a flatter yield curve. Opposite effect. The fed is full of children who don't really understand what the heck they are doing... and they won't be able to raise rates in 2015 and maybe not for another 6 months or more into 2016.
    Jun 21, 2015. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital's Large Q2 Book Value Loss May More Than Double By June 30 [View article]
    Book value was around $33, up $13 from IPO back then. Book got slammed in 2013 and Gary has been scared since then.. running ultra conservative positions.. thus dividends much lower, book failed to snap back to prior levels despite a complete 180 in yields. Ok. So Gary lost confidence in himself, obviously, and is like Maverick in the movie Top Gun. He's good but he is not back into the fight yet.
    Jun 21, 2015. 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital's Large Q2 Book Value Loss May More Than Double By June 30 [View article]
    Wrong. Book value is more important than distribution sustainability. Book value is the key support for the stock. Yes, they are pricing a discount currently but if book drops/goes up the stock give credit to that. Distribution is variable in mREITs due to spread, leverage, hedging, among other factors... Most of the return comes from dividends, yes, but book value returns are important too... and also... book value is the capital you have to leverage these things... less capital to leverage = less dividend income. OK. So you need to realize keeping book value high is the most important factor.... and is the determining factor driving eventual earnings power. dividends are important because that is your current spread income but book value is much more important. If you think that AGNCs stock would be at $20 if book was near $30 instead of the current $25 book you are just being naive.
    Jun 21, 2015. 01:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
718 Comments
789 Likes