Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

William Packer  

View William Packer's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Full Circle Capital Is Full Of It [View article]
    Brendan, I disagree. I think that you can get similar yields at MTGEP, AGNCP and RSO-C with much less risk.
    Apr 8, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Essex Rental: Technical Default Masks Massive Value; Triple-Digit Returns Possible [View article]
    Medley Capital Corp has a first lien senior secured loan to this company. (MCC)
    Apr 7, 2015. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance Has 50% Upside From These Prices [View article]
    MCC is the better deal right now
    Apr 6, 2015. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance Has 50% Upside From These Prices [View article]
    "Trading opportunities" lol. Yeah, I once knew of a few guys who disagreed with me about $FULL. I told them to stay away and they told me that they were just trading the stock and not planning on holding. Those folks woke up one day and lost over 20% overnight. The only trading opportunity there is for a declining asset is on the short side of the trade.

    I like FSC as an investment if the fees are reduced or a buyback is begun. Perhaps both. FSFR is questionable because lack of diversification so they need to attract investors by low fees. There is nothing criminal about FSC, FSFR, or FSAM. All three have a different set of risks. I think if you are looking for the best deal.... You want to buy FSC near 60 cents on the dollar... If that doesn't happen then you have MCC near 75 cents on the dollar right now with a better dividend return. FSFR should only be a very tiny piece of your portfolio if you are interested in benefiting from rising rates and looking for current income. FSAM is going to crash down to the $8 level just give it some time... FSAM will have a hard time raising new funds at FSC or FSFR for a couple years. Very little growth in AUM. So I think FSAM bottoms around $8.
    Apr 4, 2015. 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital enters JV [View news story]
    Read this: http://bit.ly/1MQdbOQ

    That sale to the insider was withdrawn. Clearly it was not in the best interests of all creditors. MCCs recovery at FC operating should be significant.
    Apr 4, 2015. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance Has 50% Upside From These Prices [View article]
    Zmarzz, you would be surprised just how stupid people can be. Although, I think Fsam stock is headed for single digits... $8 seems about right.
    Apr 4, 2015. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Risks Of Medley Management And How To Correctly Time Your Purchase [View article]
    Someone took it up like 11% on 20k share volume... Pretty dumb in my opinion. It should fizzle back down over time. MCC is way below NAV and most of AUM comes from MCC... And the other products offered to investors are basically the same thing.. Secured middle market loans.. So really performance is similar across all funds managed by medley. I would not be a buyer here at $11 or $13 because the dividend should come down next time... They want to target a lower payout ratio at MDLY... . I wouldn't be surprised to see a 0.15 dividend at MDLY.

    Despite MCCs more recent non-accrual problems... I'd rather be long MCC at current valuations than MDLY.
    Apr 2, 2015. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital enters JV [View news story]
    0.37 dividend to 0.30 dividend is not a 45% dividend decline. MCC is 0.30, MDLY is 0.20 per share. You are confused there. Read the PR again.
    Apr 2, 2015. 08:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital enters JV [View news story]
    I hope you are right Frank. I am skeptical on what kind of recovery there can be from a loan to a Christian book and music store. I am marking it to 0 in my model and if we get anything back... Great. It will be interesting to see what mark MCC gives it for Q1 2015.
    Apr 2, 2015. 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital enters JV [View news story]
    if you look at the buyer they had lined up... well... that offer of 74 million was really low and would have wiped out a lot of debt value.. and MCC would have taken a bigger hit there... so I think that the auction probably is a better deal for MCC.
    Apr 2, 2015. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital enters JV [View news story]
    MCC is not invested in "The Family Christian Stores." Look for yourself.. it is not on the 10-Q for the past few quarters. So obviously the investment has been marked to 0 a very long time ago.

    EDIT: NEVERMIND. I FOUND IT. "FC operating LLC"

    10.3m investment.. LOL. Yeah.. doubt they are getting much back there in the auction.
    Apr 2, 2015. 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance Has 50% Upside From These Prices [View article]
    Michael... Who here is positive on KCAP? I never was.

    UBS sucker punched FSC and MCC months after the stocks dropped
    Apr 1, 2015. 04:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance Has 50% Upside From These Prices [View article]
    FSFR is not very diversified.. Hardly any portfolio companies...
    Apr 1, 2015. 12:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Finally Time To Buy Medley Capital Corp. [View article]
    Read my stocktalk posts on MCC for more info.
    Apr 1, 2015. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Finally Time To Buy Medley Capital Corp. [View article]
    MCC pays a 0.30 dividend.. MDLY just declared a 0.20 dividend.... There was no 33% reduction... Read the press release more carefully. The whole world thinks 0.20 for MCC when its not. Thus the drop.
    Apr 1, 2015. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
636 Comments
665 Likes