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  • The Risks Of Medley Management And How To Correctly Time Your Purchase [View article]
    My updated opinion on MDLY following Q4 EPS:

    Opinion remains the same. MDLY is a buy at $8. MCC JV opportunity should boost MCC stock and management incentive fees but eps miss at MDLY suggests downside and share buyback at MCC suggests declining AUM for now.

    Those with a long term outlook should buy at $8... I think it will still go there... Patience pays
    Mar 30, 2015. 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Finally Time To Buy Medley Capital Corp. [View article]
    Medley Capital Reports Joint Venture

    3/30/15, 4:11 PM
    Medley Capital Corporation ("MCC", or the
    "Company") (NYSE: MCC) today announced that it has formed a joint venture
    with a premier U.S. provider of property and casualty insurance ("JV
    Partner"), creating MCC Senior Loan Strategy JV I LLC ("MCC SLS JV"). The
    joint venture is expected to invest primarily in middle market and other
    corporate debt securities, a natural extension of MCC's leading origination
    and underwriting franchise.

    MCC and the JV Partner have committed to provide an aggregate of $100
    million of equity to the joint venture, with MCC providing $87.5 million and
    the JV Partner providing $12.5 million. In addition, MCC SLS JV is in
    discussions with third party financing providers to provide the joint venture
    with a credit facility. MCC and the JV Partner anticipate beginning to fun

    the joint venture with new investments in May 2015.

    "We are pleased to build this strategic partnership with a leader in the U.S.
    insurance industry with deep expertise in credit investing," said Brook Taube,
    MCC's Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Directors. "We
    expect that this joint venture will be additive to MCC's return on equity as
    well as net investment income per share."

    © 2015 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
    Mar 30, 2015. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance Has 50% Upside From These Prices [View article]
    I am changing my recommendation to HOLD if you are underwater on your FSC investment and A SELL if you are above water. More information/explanation posted on the stock talks section of SA for FSAM and FSC.

    For those of you saying to buy FSFR, I disagree... There is hardly any diversification there... And I wouldn't want to be long it personally given my concerns with management.

    MCC and MDLY offer the best opportunity to be long an asset manager or a BDC. I own shares in MCC but not MDLY currently.
    Mar 30, 2015. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Finally Time To Buy Medley Capital Corp. [View article]
    As I just posted in stocktalks, I have an early estimate on MCCs NAV for Q1 2015.

    Early look@ $MCC NAV estimate for Q1... $11.92 per share, up from $11.74. Increase caused from buyback, 0.04-0.06 out earning divy, spread reversal

    Range projected $11.87 to $11.96. Middle of road scenario = $11.92.

    Hope that is helpful to some of you looking to get an idea of what MCCs NAV should be today.
    Mar 27, 2015. 03:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital: I Don't Care About The Past [View article]
    That would take off almost half of 1 cent to quarterly NII of 0.35. Yes, a negative but I won't be losing any sleep over it. I understand you are just correcting the author but I wanted to chime in to let people know that a change in interest rates has a very minimal to no impact on the NII of MCC at this point. In addition, it should have minimal impact to non-accruals. Most of these companies already made requests of 2% extra spread for fixed option vs floating. In my opinion, MCC would be better off taking the fixed rate debt and stopping this nonsense about using a floating rate portfolio. Silly... Especially with the 20% turn over. I'd rather collect the extra yield today that prices in fed rate hike expectations...

    MCC refuses to take on the spread risk though... And that's fine.. I will just have to deal with it...
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital: I Don't Care About The Past [View article]
    Rob, the new investments would be at higher yields and the impact of a rising rate scenario would be very minimal... Less damaging than the -3.2% hit to NII. Remember, about 20% of he portfolio rolls every year. Also, fed funds going above 2% seems highly unlikely... So I wouldn't expect much NII growth OR higher defaults anytime soon. Growth in NII would need to come from more originations via above book trading + offerings... Like before when we cleared 0.43 NII instead of 0.35. That said, the dividend is stable and 117% covered at 0.30. The fed raising rates won't put enough damage on the dividend to cause a cut... They would still cover it. A 10.2% return on book value is nothing to cry about... Sure there are defaults from time to time but total ROE is still in the high single digits.... And if you trade the stock or buy/sell when below/above book value.... You can make up for any non-accrual problems by adding value that way... There are ways around the non-accrual performance... That said... Non-accruals tend to be lumpy in this business.. I would not be surprised to see little to no non-accrual from here out over the next few years. However, I am prepared for them if they do come about and I will work to continue to add value through my "swap strategy" and active portfolio trading when it gets above book value again.
    Mar 26, 2015. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance Has 50% Upside From These Prices [View article]
    Well not really... But I can see how you would think that.
    Mar 24, 2015. 11:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Finally Time To Buy Medley Capital Corp. [View article]
    Hi Amy,

    Yes, the wash sale rule applies because the IRS does not view it as an identical security... Which is nice. :)

    And thanks for the positive feedback as well.
    Mar 24, 2015. 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance Has 50% Upside From These Prices [View article]
    That is why I have a disclosure posted in my profile.... Also... People make their own decisions.. I just give suggestions which they can choose to follow if they want. Everyone knows investing involves risk.

    Crying...uhhh... No. I cry often but never because of what someone wrote in the comments section of an article... Not afraid to admit that I have the ability to feel a wide range of emotions (including empathy) unlike some people....

    I also rarely get emotional when it comes to investing/trading... my trading/investment strategy has very strict rules and I am extremely disciplined when it comes to following them.
    Mar 24, 2015. 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Was Simply Wrong About American Capital Mortgage [View article]
    You are still wrong... You have it written that MTGE moved more capital to 30 year from 15s last quarter.... This is wrong... MTGE moved capital to 15 from 30 year and increased non-agency exposure.

    Look, MTGE is not a buy. The spread risk is not worth it. You have credit and rate risk... Both are significant. In my opinion, investors are better off in credit risk assets with short durations like BDCs provide.

    See my article on MCC here:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    And FSC here:
    http://seekingalpha.co...


    My point is... There are much better places to get yield right now than mREITs. Especially given the large discounts to NAV in the BDC sector and improved eps forecast for when rates rise.
    Mar 24, 2015. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance Has 50% Upside From These Prices [View article]
    Well.... BillBDC and certain other commenters have wrote defamatory language against myself and you don't see me suing them... And they are also attempting to destroy my reputation on and for a service that I provide for money. (SA articles are compensated with money) . Many of their comments were so deflamatory that they were deleted (which I didn't even ask to happen). So if anything - I should have legal right to sue them for their defamatory comments that fell well outside of normal debate.
    Mar 24, 2015. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Finally Time To Buy Medley Capital Corp. [View article]
    Thanks C
    Mar 23, 2015. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance Has 50% Upside From These Prices [View article]
    Fotheringay,

    I have responded to this before. I am not sure where the post is now. In summary, I was venting my thoughts on the managment fees before I spoke with management on the topic. Then, I realized, I was jumping the gun on calling them crooks.

    #1. The fee structure will come down.

    #2. FSFR diluted investors early not to launch FSAM but because FSFR lacked diversification to the desired degree. FSAM saw an increase in non-accrual loans from FSC at that time and was scared that FSFR would experience a large NAV hit due to a non-accrual loan. They were afraid it would dent the portfolio NAV by more than the dilution amount. This is why FSAM decided to do the offering....to protect shareholders from a worse fate. It appears the offering is helping and the NII is outpacing the dividend over there.

    So previously, I had called Fsam crooks for the fees @ FSC and the dilution @ FSFR. I have since then realized the error of my thoughts there and become bullish on FSC. I am still bearish on FSAM because the fees coming down will impact eps over there. So I see that stock coming down to $8.
    Mar 23, 2015. 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance Has 50% Upside From These Prices [View article]
    Well... I pretty much am retired... As much as one can really be these days... Except for my clients who are mostly family and friends... But that is all stuff I enjoy doing anyway. Not bad for a 28 year old guy...

    And to answer bob,

    This is my life... I research, invest, write articles, manage my own funds as well as clients, email clients, Have multiple hour conversations with certain clients on a weekly basis, estimate earnings and NAV performance for over 75 companies... Etc.

    My life is this... And yeah sometimes I feel it is wasted on writing responses to people like yourself....

    But I do this for all the people who email me and thank me for my articles and the information I provide them...

    Bash FSC or MCC some more... Bash the analysis... Won't stop FSC and MCC from going up in price...

    I will still be here years from now... And I am sure you will be gone.... And these posts will be left here.... And more new people will come by and some will be confused by what I am saying... And they will claim I am wrong..... Only later to find out that they had no clue...

    My detailed article track record and SA posts speak for themselves... And I am talking about recommendations not what I do with my personal $...

    Wow starting to feel like a parrot now... I have been parroting the same song and dance for like 7 years... I don't know why I even bother to respond to some of you.... Guess it's out of habit... It's what i have been doing for like 7 years...
    Mar 23, 2015. 02:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs: This Is Not The Time To Get Long [View article]
    The cost of funds from repo for mtge and AGNC is around 45 basis points currently. See presentation slides for more. The total "cost of funds" includes swap and hedge related negative carry costs...but not swaptions and is a tad over 1%.

    That said, I don't see big returns for mREITs in 2015. Share prices are likely to remain depressed or drop further as the market fears a rise in the fed funds level. For this reason, I don't own any shares in mREITs.

    If I was going to own a mortgage reit.. It would be TWO, MTGE, or EFC.

    I would rather own MCC at todays prices... And that is where my money is currently. I like the BDC sector as a place to obtain yield because of the floating rate nature of many BDC portfolios today.

    Stay safe and keep fighting the good fight. ;)
    Mar 22, 2015. 10:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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