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William Packer  

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  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    I disagree with your view that now is not a good time to invest in BDCs. I feel that they are extremely discounted assets. Sure, non-accrual loans have picked up and we saw some volatility there to NAV.. but surely it's not mind blowing and likely to calm down now.. BDCs have adjusted their payouts to help stabilize NAV and grow it again. In addition, higher interest rates will boost net investment income.. driving better dividend coverage, higher NAVs or higher dividends. There will be many changes to BDCs over the next few years... to align interests with management for externally managed BDCs... I would not bet on the asset managers of BDCs like FSAM or MDLY.. I think they are going to take cuts to their large fees. I am sure they knew this and that is why they IPO'd when they did.
    Feb 20, 2015. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    I am not trying to manipulate you guys. That is just silly. I am providing insight to various names as well as ideas for trading/investment....

    I thought maybe this article would give you some more things to consider.. or perhaps might have colored things that you overlooked.
    Feb 20, 2015. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    Things change over time. Many BDC's have reported earnings and there has been many changes. Yes, I am a trader, but I am also an investor. What i do does not always make sense for everyone else. We each have our own financial situations to deal with... That said, I believe MCC offers the best value in total return prospects of any BDC right now. They do not issue shares below NAV and they focus solely on secured lending to middle market investments. They have a direct origination platform and have an excellent track record for investing. Medley management has invested in over 230 loans with only 12 seeing some degree of loss at all. So I would say that they are very good at what they do considering the type of investments and the yield/risk they take. The Return on equity has been excellent. Stop obsessing over the stock price performance. Look at the Dividends paid plus or minus the change to book value over the years. So if you add up all the dividends, then compute the plus or minus change to book value overall over the years… put them together and figure out the total economic return. I will give you a clue... The IPO before fees and expenses was priced at $12 per share and NAV today is $11.74 and dividends paid is not too far from $4/share.
    Feb 19, 2015. 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    Again, that is based on stock price. Economic returns are the combination of dividends paid, plus or minus change to book value... Stock price can do anything.. It's not a true representation of managerial asset performance.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    The stock price is not total economic return of the BDC... MCC is cheap compared to peers. MCC is also buying back stock... I don't see programs like this being done at FSC or PSEC.. Those guys are crooks.MCC's CEO is brutally honest.
    Feb 19, 2015. 06:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    So both FSC and MCC magically reported an equal decline to NAV for Q4. Just be coincidence? Or magic? My point is.. FSC and MCC loans are really similar... TICC is a little less Direct investment and more sponsor deal flow. Sponser deals yield less than direct origination. GBDC is really high quality stuff but the stock more than reflects that already. $FULL is complete garbage and I have stated that in prior articles on $FULL. $AINV is a baddie too. MCC is the only BDC I like because of its direct origination, brutally honest CEO, interest rate risk profile, and excellent track record. It happens to yield the most of any BDC with excellent coverage on the new dividend level. I don't count TICCs yield as sustainable anymore. It will be cut to 0.20 by mid 2016. Just my honest opinion...
    Feb 19, 2015. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Your TICC Shares Today At $7.60 [View article]
    Both fifth Street finance and medley capital Corporation invest in senior secured loans just like TICC. One main difference is that T I CC invests in CLOs and FSC + MCC do not. Prospects capital Corporation has a shady way of doing accounting. I have not gone through their CLO marks, but I can assure you that CLO assets lost value in Q4. Spreads have widened for all leveraged loans. Widening of spreads is the contributing factor for NAV declines as well as credit quality damage hitting home to FSC and MCC. My theory is that credit quality damage has gone through to TICC as well. I doubt they are immune. In addition, CLO spreads have widened. The Federal Reserve is working on a path to raise interest rates. I believe we will see the first interest rate hikes in mid-2015. I believe the year will end around 75 basis points. I see Fed funds near 1.5% by the end of 2016 and 2.5% by the end of 2017.
    Feb 19, 2015. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Aggressive Portfolio Composition Will Prove Fruitful For American Capital Mortgage [View article]
    I am not short anything and no plans to buy any mREITs for years.
    Feb 17, 2015. 09:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Aggressive Portfolio Composition Will Prove Fruitful For American Capital Mortgage [View article]
    Preferred stocks are not a safe place to be when interest rates go up. The stocks will get hammered as well. Medley capital Corp. will go up in price. The net investment income of medley capital will increase after the Federal Reserve raises the Fed funds level above 2%. Most of the NAV damage has passed us. Every BDC runs into non-accruals every now and then. The bad apples of the aggressive growth of assets under management has passed us. The remaining medley assets should continue to perform well. There is also a significant discount to book value. Additionally, lending standards are going to get tighter again. Business development companies are going to be able to be more picky when it comes to making loans. They will once again be able to make loans with less credit risk and similar yields to today's riskier loans. That is why I am recommending that investors buy BDCs ahead of these changes. I particularly like medley capital as a favorite. I do not own any other BDCs. I wish you the best of luck in whatever you decide.
    Feb 17, 2015. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley's (MCC) CEO Brook Taube on Q1 2015 Earnings Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Founder, you hit the nail right on the head with your comments.
    Feb 17, 2015. 06:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Aggressive Portfolio Composition Will Prove Fruitful For American Capital Mortgage [View article]
    Dhl-2, my thoughts as well. I was confused on why someone would want to reduce hedges when the fed is on the verge of rate hikes come mid-2015. The book value risk would be very high... I already consider the risk not worth it.. BDC investments are much better buys right now.
    Feb 16, 2015. 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Aggressive Portfolio Composition Will Prove Fruitful For American Capital Mortgage [View article]
    I bet he says... "EFC, AI, TWO."

    I disagree with this... Currently, I think all mREITs are bad investments.

    Buy MCC instead. Excellent ROE, stable NAV over time. Excellent managers. Messy last couple quarters but the damage should be over.
    Feb 16, 2015. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Aggressive Portfolio Composition Will Prove Fruitful For American Capital Mortgage [View article]
    Reducing hedges a very bad idea.... Fed will start hiking rates mid 2015. Even now, rates moving higher off the lows... Like 50bp up off lows on 10 yr. no offense, but if you had experience managing an mreit you wouldn't say what you are saying.

    NIM will get killed as rates rise even with hedges. $14 pt Price target MTGE, $20 book value target by mid 2016. $0.40 dividend rate target quarterly.
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Loan Servicing Solutions Has More Than 100% Upside, Right To Counter Sue BlueMountain Capital [View article]
    "I'd rather buy an excellent company at a fair price than a terrible company at a cheap price." -WB
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Loan Servicing Solutions Has More Than 100% Upside, Right To Counter Sue BlueMountain Capital [View article]
    I think OcN is a terrible idea. They are Incompetent at servicing loans. Major regulatory problems...

    I like MDLY and MCC at today's prices.
    Feb 14, 2015. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
544 Comments
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