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William Packer

 
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  • Why Mr. Stiritz Should Listen To Clint Eastwood: 10 Reasons Herbalife Is Still A Great Short To $30 Or Less [View article]
    it doesn't really matter Ddad. The stock will go up anyways.
    Aug 4 11:56 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Mr. Stiritz Should Listen To Clint Eastwood: 10 Reasons Herbalife Is Still A Great Short To $30 Or Less [View article]
    I just put a client into $HLF today @ $51.20. (paired it with SPY short) I think the stock is an easy double if not triple.
    Aug 4 06:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One mREIT That Will Easily Rise In 2014 [View article]
    Chris, I am very aware of the risks to selling short. And... i almost never naked short anything.. I pair it with another position. I still believe $JMI will ultimately fall below $1 over the next couple years. The company is mismanaged and even ARR (the sister company) had a very difficult time maintaining book value even when agency mbs markets were going up. Just too much to write here... I am upset because I cannot find any shares to borrow to sell short.
    Aug 4 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One mREIT That Will Easily Rise In 2014 [View article]
    I keep trying to short this (NYSE:JMI) but they tell me no shares available to short... damn shorts took them all. = (
    Aug 4 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Mortgage Buy reiterated at Wunderlich [View news story]
    $22.50 is almost book value. No way $MTGE is going back to book value anytime soon. $WMC might. MTGE won't. If you got the patience - MTGE eventually will make it up there... I wouldn't' be surprised to see MTGE hit $17.70 once rates make it back to 3% on 10s later this year.
    Aug 3 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital +1.3% after reporting a big Q2 [View news story]
    Rob, we will get a better picture on the rate environment by the end of this week. I am looking at GDP and non farm payrolls to make a decision on where rates might go. I took down the short treasury futures hedge today. I have just the mtge and calls.
    Jul 28 09:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital +1.3% after reporting a big Q2 [View news story]
    Garrylindsay, the stock price will likely go up significantly on the better than expected earnings. The dividend can be taken up, or not but then the excess income is being added to the book value. Higher book values will equate to a higher stock price and ultimately higher dividends.
    Jul 28 09:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital +1.3% after reporting a big Q2 [View news story]
    Bingy, they collect drop income from the TBA roll and core income. Core income + drop income covered the dividend and left an extra 0.20 some cents per share left over. If you have doubts, please ask the question to Gary tomorrow on the conference call.
    Jul 28 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital +1.3% after reporting a big Q2 [View news story]
    The company doesn't care about the UTI, it will keep paying dividends based on core + drop income. Dividend could go up actually.
    Jul 28 05:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kain rings the register on Hatteras [View news story]
    Yeah.. Mtge is very undervalued compared to agnc. It's strange considering mtge has less rate risk, access to MSR market, etc.
    Jul 23 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs work as averages slide and bond yields fall [View news story]
    Tstreet, look at book value of mtge at 6-30-2012 and then look at book value as of 3-31-2014. There are basically the same yet rates went up 100 basis points. The issue with MTGE isn't the managers performance.. It's just being hurt by the p/b discount. People fear what they don't understand. MTGE is being lumped in with the other MREITs.
    Jul 14 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13.9% Div. CYS Investments And 18.4% Div. Western Asset Mortgage Capital Are Winning Their Bets [View article]
    Not sure what you mean by "you will see that your claim is not true." If you are talking about the spread widening.. Look at the ARMs market in Q2 2013. Spreads blew out, HTS lost about 22% of book in one quarter. AGNC lost like 12% and MTGE dropped about 6% that quarter. That was when rates really took off.. spread widening etc. AGNC and MTGE did pretty well considering.. but only because the 15 yr and 30 yr bucket had less spread widening. The shorter duration assets are not always the best vehicle. Just look at the 3 and 5 year part of the curve in treasuries.. really narrowing in compared to the 10 year.
    Jul 12 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13.9% Div. CYS Investments And 18.4% Div. Western Asset Mortgage Capital Are Winning Their Bets [View article]
    I have never seen the 30 year spreads really blow out like you are saying. That happens more often in the less liquid ARMs market, like we saw in Q2 2013 with HTS's arms book. Could spreads widen? yeah, sure. In fact, spreads are really narrow right now as of the end of Q2. WMC has a lot of hedges on those 30 year bonds already. The negative duration does protect the book value, so does the substantial non-agency position that is expected to grow over time. I think it really comes down to the convexity risk here on WMC. If you get a big and fast rise in rates... the duration gap goes up. Of course, I do like MTGE's portfolio better. It's just a better balance and the MSRs coming on the books is helpful. WMC will likely keep the 30 year bonds on the books and just move more capital into non-agency to help hedge them. That and... the duration gap and sensitivity to rates seem appropriate. In Q4, 2013, WMC ran a more negative duration gap and lost book value because rates did not rise like they were thinking. I am not a fan of a mortgage REIT going into negative duration land. I don't mind them dropping rate sensitivity, but when they bet on higher rates it just upsets me. It makes it too difficult for me to accurately hedge the interest rate risk myself. That's another reason I stick with Gary's REITs.

    EDIT: forgot to mention yeah the 30 year hedges will rise faster in value when rates go up.. but that is a benefit to WMC because they have those hedges on the books. Which mean its not a double whammy... it's actually beneficial. The fact is.. they are fully hedged with cost of funds.. So if short rates rise - they have no risk to the dividend.. only the NAV as long as they hold the paper.
    Jul 12 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 13.9% Div. CYS Investments And 18.4% Div. Western Asset Mortgage Capital Are Winning Their Bets [View article]
    David, I see a 0.5 yr negative duration as of March 31, 2014. What are you looking at in your determination? Their average maturity on swaps is 7 years and their cost of funds is fully hedged as of their presentation with an average pay rate of 1.9%.
    Jul 12 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset investors cheer higher book value [View news story]
    Spondrel, I actually like their 30 year agencies.. You can still hedge them and they do have a significant amount of non-agency paper. Duration is actually negative.. not sure if you knew that.. but their book actually goes up when rates rise.
    Jul 12 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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