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William Packer

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  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    Brian. GTFO of here. lol. mREITs are not as risky as you try to portray them. If you are that scared of rate risk... move to MTGE. When rates shot up in Q2 2013, MTGE lost only 6% of book vs AGNC's 11% and CYS's 20%. (most peers lost around 20%) . Non-agency went up big in Q4. Perhaps offsetting the majority of the agency MBS losses.
    Jan 1 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Ahead For American Capital Agency [View article]
    i am sorry to be the one to tell you this... but home sales being surprising to the upside is actually a negative for AGNC not a positive. AGNC has no credit risk. so whether or not home sales or home equity is stronger... has no effect to AGNC other than higher interest rates if the economy is improving. it was good for MTGE though.
    Dec 30 05:29 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Major mREIT Dividends Announced; 1 Conviction Buy And 2 Holds [View article]
    I still believe $JMI will go to $0. The only way you can maintain a dividend of 0.15, guaranteed for 1 year... is to not change any of your positions or add any hedges at all. So they would have to keep everything the same for 1 year as well. Otherwise they would not cover their dividend. So you want to have that kind of manager, one who does not adapt to a changing environment.. manage your money while book value drops on higher interest rates and DRIP dilution?
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Although, I wish you the best of luck.
    Dec 24 01:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Fed Tapering Help The mREITs? Well, It Depends (Part 2) [View article]
    rob, that drop over past yr had to do with pay ups not so much interest rate sensitivity. the pay up value dropped when prepayments dropped. it cant happen again... was 1 time deal
    Dec 22 06:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Fed Tapering Help The mREITs? Well, It Depends (Part 2) [View article]
    higher dividends do not mean better economic returns. orc's dividend is unsustainable. orc has wiped out 20 pct of its book just in q2 alone vs agnc's 11 pct decline and mtge's 6 pct decline. ORC is just a legal ponzi scheme. they dilute and dilute by selling shares below NAV and pay a big dividend from excessive risk taking. they are ARR 2.0.
    Dec 22 06:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Fed Tapering Help The mREITs? Well, It Depends (Part 2) [View article]
    there is nothing "safe" about non-agency lol. even prime loan only mreits went bust.
    Dec 22 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Fed Tapering Help The mREITs? Well, It Depends (Part 2) [View article]
    i have a 100 percent allocation to mreits. 20,000 shares of AGNC.
    Dec 22 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • As Annaly And American Capital Disappoint, This MREIT Rises - Don't Short It [View article]
    Jonk, There was an offering in February of 57.5 million shares at $31.32. This offering was conducted above book value at the time of issuance. So not dilutive.
    Dec 21 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • As Annaly And American Capital Disappoint, This MREIT Rises - Don't Short It [View article]
    i see what you are saying jonk, but all of the shares were issued above book value, no? so clearly they were accretive to book value because they were issued above the then current book value.
    Dec 20 11:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp.: Yet Another Dividend Cut [View article]
    It does not work that way akaralph. In fact, i think agnc will make a lot of money for shareholders over the years. AGNC will get their capital back over time.. there is natural deleveraging of the portfolio and durations are short.
    Dec 20 06:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp.: Yet Another Dividend Cut [View article]
    Phattboy, total economic returns are still positive over the last 12 months.. Management can't control the stock price very easily.. but they are buying back shares at a fast clip.
    Dec 20 11:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp.: Yet Another Dividend Cut [View article]
    What! Cweinholtz is diversified? You cheated? OMG!!! How could you? how could you cheat on your mREITs! Didn't you read your investment vows? =P In all seriousness though, I am 100% allocated to mREITs and I only trade in them... But I have not done all that poorly considering the size of the recent moves to the downside. Hedging and swaps between relative value have helped a lot.
    Dec 20 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp.: Yet Another Dividend Cut [View article]
    sps50.. they sell mbs at book value and repurchase at a discount using share repurchases. it is immediately accretive to both earnings and NAV. they will issue again when the stock price well exceeds nav.... which is also accretive.
    Dec 20 09:19 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset adds special payout to Q4 dividend; +4.8% AH [View news story]
    WMC book used to be around $21 a few quarters back
    Dec 19 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset adds special payout to Q4 dividend; +4.8% AH [View news story]
    oh yeah.. 0.90 but the core was like 0.80.
    Dec 19 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
238 Comments
271 Likes