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William Packer  

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  • Why You Shouldn't Put Too Much Weight On Dividends [View article]
    Thanks geekette for trying to stick up for me, however, It is my only holding. I won't deny it's much more risky to have such a large concentration in a single company. But yes, I did want to point out that many people are married and they fall in the 15% bracket... including MOST retired people in the US... so... they don't pay taxes on qualified dividends.
    May 20, 2015. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Shouldn't Put Too Much Weight On Dividends [View article]
    nikhil_w, I understand your logic behind that view point. However, I started with around $70k back in January 2008 and traded that up over time... paying all my bills and expenses... etc. So this is the one thing I am good at... is stock picking... and trading.. so I am just going to stick with that. If you take a peek into FSAM... you'll see why I like it... and I mean take a look into the fundamentals of the business with over 90% of capital in permanent AUM vehicles, impressive AUM growth history, etc. It's way undervalued. The dividend is variable based on earnings but the earnings are highly predictable. The issue was lower origination volume last quarter at their two publicly-managed funds and so fees were lower for the manager. I mean, origination was basically nothing. So going forward, I see origination picking up because Q1 is always really poor... and if you look at the PR, they just completed another huge loan now across their BDCs which means origination volume is occurring again.

    They are also buying back 1/3 of their class A stock. (FSAM stock)

    What people don't seem to understand is that the dividend is variable and the earnings run rate is not going to be this low going forward.. so I believe they will raise the dividend next quarter to 0.20 per share.
    May 20, 2015. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Shouldn't Put Too Much Weight On Dividends [View article]
    What if you fall in the 15% tax bracket and owe no taxes on your qualified dividends because you and your wife make under $74K a year combined and neither of you work? I own 78,000 shares of FSAM and my pay is $53,040 per year based on FSAMs 0.17 dividend annualized. Of course, they could raise it next quarter because origination was low this quarter... but still... at the current rate I will pay no taxes. Also, even if they start paying me more than 74k per year in dividends... I would only get taxed the 15% rate on any amount over the 74.5k.... so... uhh.. not really worried about that.. lol. at 74.5k per year.. that is $6,208 per month clean.... and our expenses are about $2,600 per month... food, rent, health insurance/care, everything.
    May 20, 2015. 11:24 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Asset Management reports Q1 results [View news story]
    FSAM could drop to $9.75 which would be a 7% yield just like MDLY.. and i think the market may take it there... hard to say because that buyback expectation is there.. and maybe we open, come down and test $10, and then go back up and sit at $10.30 to $10.75.
    May 16, 2015. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Asset Management reports Q1 results [View news story]
    They did cut fees... fees came down for FSC and FSFR this quarter... thus the lower income.. OK.. so fees did take a hit... and they just said for FSC that they will be giving them the ability to scale fees lower over time.. so that is a big plus and no other BDCs are doing this... They may buyback stock at FSC still... I don't think they ruled that out... but i wouldn't imagine buybacks being higher than 10% of outstanding. However, I don't think a buyback will help FSC... it's hardly any increase to their NAV... so not very accretive to NII or NAV. it's pointless to do it.. and they lose diversification at FSC if they do it... and the only way to really generate stable returns as a BDC is to have a huge and diverse portfolio.. so giving that up is bad... buybacks just don't make sense for the BDC model. They really dont.
    May 16, 2015. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Asset Management reports Q1 results [View news story]
    I agree that LT is doing things very oddly... setting a dividend at 0.30 only to bait and switch to 0.17 is criminal...despite the legality of it. I feel like he did it on purpose.. just so he could buyback all the shares cheaper and net the difference. That said, I bought in the 10s... so I am not going to be selling... and I am fine with the current 0.17 and buyback.
    May 16, 2015. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Asset Management reports Q1 results [View news story]
    $12.53 to $12.46 quarter over quarter is not a heavy drop in NAV for FSFR... and it was related to m2m not credit impairment. The other drop in NAV from IPO was the result of the below NAV issuance to gain scale for FSFR. They won't do that again and management bought a huge position in FSFR stock.
    May 16, 2015. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Asset Management reports Q1 results [View news story]
    about the CLOs... FSAM invested 7.5M in the CLO they just launched... cash put into the business. they took that from the credit line to fund it.
    May 16, 2015. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Asset Management reports Q1 results [View news story]
    I think the big deal here is the buyback... I was not happy about the adjusted EPS coming in at $0.19... vs 0.24 analyst estimate... but that's life. The dividend came in at 0.17 instead of 0.20 (which was the analyst estimates) so ... slightly negative there... but not enough to really move the market perhaps... then you have this big buyback... which is a huge positive if they execute.. so no.. i wont be selling.. I have no idea how the stock is going to respond... and I'm not going to pretend to know. But I bought FSAM as an investment.. I since have traded it a number of times.. but I always knew it was an investment. Certainly, the stock was trying to price in the dividend and the earnings etc... Given the declines already... perhaps most of it was priced in... we might get a few retail guys jumping ship in the AM... but is FSAM a sell? I don't think so... I think it has real potential and that is going to take some time to realize.
    May 16, 2015. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Asset Management reports Q1 results [View news story]
    well Owens got burned bad... he bought 100,000 shares of FSAM @ $17 and he obviously is deeply underwater on that. I have 78,000 shares @ $10.68. Huge difference between the two prices. The 0.17 quarterly dividend is an annualized payout of 4% @ $17
    May 16, 2015. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Asset Management reports Q1 results [View news story]
    well FSFR @ 80 cents on the dollar is not as dire as you suggest. The management fee at FSFR is very low for the industry and the management team owns a huge % of the shares... over 5%. So I think there is alignment there and obviously they are working on ramping things up over there.

    FSC is on a plan to scale the fees down over time... which is something other BDCs are not doing... and ultimately that will be a huge benefit to shareholders of FSC down the road... yes, I know they need to get above book value to issue stock... and perhaps that will just be a matter of time.

    They (FSAM) do have a lot of power behind them... with that 175m credit line... to launch new funds or buyback the Class A... etc.

    If you think about where the stock is priced today... should it really fall just because?? I mean... logic says whenever you get a negative surprise... and i think analysts were estimating 0.24 EPS and it came in at 0.19 adjusted... so yeah.. that is a miss.. but arguably factored into the price... but sometimes things aren't logical. 0.17 is just 3 pennies away from 0.20... and MDLY pays 0.20 and they are trading a buck per share higher.
    May 16, 2015. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Asset Management reports Q1 results [View news story]
    So they issue stock at $17 in November 2014... and now they are buying back after it all fell to $10.... huge buyback... interesting... so set the dividend at 0.30.. knowing you will cut it later... just to upset investors... and then after it tanks all the way down.. you just buyback all the shares you sold... and keep the free money to yourself. interesting. Well... they will keep a few million shares outstanding... so they can ratchet up the dividend over time... and repeat the process... so now they put the dividend at 0.17.. because 0.15 would be a 50% cut.. so now people cannot say it's a 50% cut... and 2 pennies below 0.20 would not have caused a good enough reaction.. right? So ... make it 3 pennies.... 0.17 dividend.. that way they can get more volume maybe to buyback the stock... then next quarter declare a 0.19 dividend... and as they grow.. ratchet up the dividend back to 0.26 to 0.30... by that time the stock will be near $15 to $17... then LT will come in and sell some shares on the market... Am I right or am I right? lol. Because LT doesn't want to go private completely... because he wants to be the king-pin of something... king kong of his little jungle operation. So now we see some selling monday but the buyback comes along and they take a bunch of shares off the market.... and keep hiking the dividend a couple pennies each quarter from here.... drive it back up... it's questionable where the stock will trade from here.. but the quarter was weak and effective management fee rate fell pretty hard quarter over quarter. But they (management) did warn us that Q1 would be weak....
    May 16, 2015. 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Asset Management beats on revenue [View news story]
    $20,000,000 share repurchase program for FSAM stock... good for about 1/3 of all Class A outstanding. 0.17 dividend declared, adjusted income was 0.19. Last quarter had adjusted income of 0.26.
    May 15, 2015. 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MCC's NII Keeps Falling [View instapost]
    NAV was down From $11.74 to $11.68
    May 15, 2015. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's (AGNC) CEO Malon Wilkus on Q1 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    If you look at book value volatility... AGNC has held firm throughout a lot of market volatility for interest rates in general.. If they can continue to keep book value up and interest rate spreads widen out.... They can earn a good spread even if fed funds moves up. Total economic returns should still be positive. MTGE has more room to operate, and can buy floating rate non-agency paper to diversify away from agencies if the ROE is not attractive enough. My biggest fear for mREITs is not the fed or interest rates on the long end going up.... But rather interest rates crashing lower which would widen out the spread between MBS and their hedges.
    May 12, 2015. 05:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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