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William Packer

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  • Annaly And American: Getting Lured By Yield Is Far Too Risky [View article]
    too many errors in your article. its late so i wont get into it much. the agency market is huge, the spread is a function of ( asset yield) - (repo rates + hedge costs). refi rates drop as interest rates rise thus increasing asset yield as well. the assets are short in duration, about 1.9 to 3.5 yrs on 15 yr paper ranging due to prepayment speeds. fed funds will stay low for another 3 years or more. AGNC is a buy in this sector due to its fast ability to adapt to changing market scenarios. the mortgage market originating less paper is a good thing for mortgage prices, which are opposite of yields. AGNC also has a strong buyback program in place which they expect to retire a large portion of their common shares. sister company mtge as already retired over 10 percent of common shares. this will boost nav and eps. AGNC also expected to get into MSRs like MTGE is doing now. so nav and roe will improve in future quarters. less swaps needed so less expense and MSRs pay 8-12 percent. its a natural hedge to the portfolio. next week will be data driven, be careful.
    Nov 30 01:12 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gary Kain Is The Warren Buffett Of Mortgages [View article]
    if you buy AGNC stock, you buy other mreits stock at a 20% discount, which is in turn priced at 20% discount.. total discount 40%. So... it makes sense to get AGNC /MTGE back to book.
    Feb 9 06:52 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly [View article]
    First off, buying for the dividend is stupid... did you know that i was the one who sold you the stock on ex-dividend? I buy before they announce the dividend.. ( because the very next day the stock goes up by usually half the dividend amount) than the next thing i do is sell the day before ex-dividend.. it's called "buying the dividend run." I have turned 72,000 into almost $1 million using this strategy (among others). I've even bought options to capture the run and made 300% on invested capital.
    Oct 23 02:35 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency And mREIT Dividends: The Race To The Bottom Is Already In Full Swing [View article]
    lol... $11. You are delusional. Have you seen mbs prices lately? They are going back up and have been since "no taper" was announced. The economy added mostly part time jobs since the crash... Gary kain even said that they were protecting book value over earnings maximization. So obviously the dividend will go back up now that hedges are taken down and book is growing.
    Sep 30 04:27 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Vs. Annaly Capital: Choosing Which Stock To Buy And Why [View article]
    yep, akaralph, mreits are a foolish investment. making over 200% in 5 years on AGNC really sucked =(
    Nov 16 10:32 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Mr. Stiritz Should Listen To Clint Eastwood: 10 Reasons Herbalife Is Still A Great Short To $30 Or Less [View article]
    I just put a client into $HLF today @ $51.20. (paired it with SPY short) I think the stock is an easy double if not triple.
    Aug 4 06:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp.: Yet Another Dividend Cut [View article]
    sps50.. they sell mbs at book value and repurchase at a discount using share repurchases. it is immediately accretive to both earnings and NAV. they will issue again when the stock price well exceeds nav.... which is also accretive.
    Dec 20 09:19 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: What The Heck Is Going On Here? [View article]
    Yeah.. I took my hedges down today @ 0.70. (190 DEC 6 $20 puts that i previously purchased at $0.14 cost average). So that was a nice value add for me. I increased my share count as well from 19,000 to 19,600 using the profits to reinvest in more shares.
    Dec 4 01:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Mr. Stiritz Should Listen To Clint Eastwood: 10 Reasons Herbalife Is Still A Great Short To $30 Or Less [View article]
    it doesn't really matter Ddad. The stock will go up anyways.
    Aug 4 11:56 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Ahead For American Capital Agency [View article]
    i am sorry to be the one to tell you this... but home sales being surprising to the upside is actually a negative for AGNC not a positive. AGNC has no credit risk. so whether or not home sales or home equity is stronger... has no effect to AGNC other than higher interest rates if the economy is improving. it was good for MTGE though.
    Dec 30 05:29 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly And American: Getting Lured By Yield Is Far Too Risky [View article]
    Well they didn't buy back all that much stock last quarter. Why? Because there wasn't so much of a material discount to book. Now there is.. so you will see it in the performance more.. and last quarter wasn't so bad.. book was down about 1% due to rebalancing over the course of the quarter, it was very volatile and even in the worst of it, gary said book never declined more than 5% even when 10 yr was at 3%.
    Nov 30 12:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs: A Smart Buy In This Environment? [View article]
    This is the worst article ever written on Mortgage reits..I had a good laugh about the part where the author said "At least one mREIT, CYS Investments (CYS), seems to be in a lot of trouble here. CYS Investments lost $7.46 billion from operations as of September 30th. That figure almost equaled the $7.47 billion CYS made from financing. CYS Investments is on very shaky ground. Hatteras is definitely in good shape when you compare to it CYS." He/she couldn't be more wrong in saying that. CYS never lost any money since the 2007 issue when it used to invest in nonagency paper. It's been generating strong returns, as seen from the increases in NAV since 2009 AND strong dividends.
    Nov 9 02:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another slide in book value at American Capital; early Q1 looking good [View news story]
    Rates were 3% when this book value was taken.. and since then duration gap is even bigger... book value could be $26-$27 range today if the gap was widened. Definitely meaningfully higher.
    Feb 3 04:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Management Should Matter To mREIT Investors [View article]
    If you examine the "total economic return", which is the change in book value plus dividend income, JMI and ARR have not outperformed AGNC in any quarter. I do not judge a management team by their share price performance, since it is not something they can easily control.
    Dec 4 04:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Vs. Annaly Capital: Choosing Which Stock To Buy And Why [View article]
    Just want to add to that... MBS prices have gone up pretty significantly since the "no taper" announcement in September. They continue to be in an uptrend, with 15 yr outperforming.. yeah.. that's right 15 yr has been a beast... probably due to the lower duration. 3.5 delevers in like 2 to 3.5 yrs depending on CPR. so.. when you think about the rate risk there.. it's not much. You can easily run a 8x leverage there with 60 to 70% repos hedged. And i think AGNC is going that direction. Just take leverage up and down based on the trend of mbs prices. easy game to play. So right now, the trend is up, which mean book values are trending up and you need to realize it's not over for AGNC. They will go the MSR route and reduce swaps further while getting paid to do so with the same duration risks. Stay agency, avoid credit which can blow up and stay in low duration assets and you will do well in a rising rate environment. There is just so much they can do to generate alpha for shareholders.. and I expect that they will increase duration gap further and continue to increase 15 yr paper while reducing 30s.
    Nov 16 02:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment