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William Packer

 
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  • American Capital Agency Corp.'s Dividend Range Scenarios For Q3 2014 [View article]
    http://bit.ly/17a2wZL
    Sep 26 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp.'s Dividend Range Scenarios For Q3 2014 [View article]
    PeteF, it is not always about the level of rates so much as it is about spreads between agency mbs and treasuries. Also, Gary Kain trades on the portfolio.. changes are made.. rebalances etc for the environment. This is more of a dividend machine than a get rich quick machine. If you keep reinvesting your dividends you will see growth in dividend income over time. a 200 bp reduction in rates with tightening spreads could give AGNC a NAV increase of 40% or more depending if they went back into spec pools or not and other trading factors. As far as yield... that is just nearly as impossible to calculate. I don't think scott or anyone can help you there. Gary would almost certainly rebalance the portfolio and change leverage to some degree. We simply cannot know the exact level. I do know that NIM would contract and the NAV would go up, the dividend level would stay the same or go down depending on if leverage was kept the same vs seeing it decline with appreciation. The yield based on NAV would decline.
    Sep 26 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Yields 11.75%; It Is An Excellent Income Investing Strategy [View article]
    I agree with dividends.. AGNC or MTGE but I wouldn't touch any of the other MREITs. Where were they when the stocks traded 80c on the dollar? They didn't buy back many shares... They didn't care about shareholders. They cared about themselves and lining their own pockets. So screw em. Many mortgage REITs think that rates are going to rise and they went into non-agency as if that was the "safe place." Lets not forget what happened to American Home Mortgage and other hybrid/non-agency focused names in 2007. If you want returns, AGNC is the safest. I am scared of non-agency - especially with the housing markets latest weakness that is showing up. I am willing to own MTGE but only because of the management team and they only have about 30% of capital there anyways.
    Sep 22 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Yields 11.75%; It Is An Excellent Income Investing Strategy [View article]
    The argument that NLY did well since the 1990s or whatever is sort of a weak argument. For the past 30 years, bond yields have trended lower, and thus bond prices have kept going up. There has been pull backs in price, but still... Rates have been going down. If that were ever to change... Nly might not exist as we know it today. I will never forget the quarter of q2 2013 when NLY lost 20 percent NAV vs AGNCs drop of 11%.
    Sep 21 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp.'s Dividend Range Scenarios For Q3 2014 [View article]
    Question: Isnt the ERTI negatively affected currently by the loss-carry forwards? Thus if there was no loss carry forward then the ERTI would be higher and thus ERTI+DROP would be having even a better coverage? Also on a separate issue, I see that 0.88 of gains were excluded because of this loss-carry including the drop. So 0.49 (0.88-0.39 = 0.49) capital gains would have been added to the 0.28 per share of taxable income, thus it would have been 0.77 taxable income and 0.39 of drop income for a total ERTI + drop of $1.16 in Q2.
    Sep 20 02:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Let's Face Facts [View article]
    Short rates going up does not have to mean long rates will go up too.... It's called a flattener... I don't even believe short rates will go up. Probably go into another recession by then. But if it does happen.. The big rate move was from 1.4% to 2.4% on the 10 year.. Maybe in 2016 it will be 3.4% on 10s. But rates could just as easily go to 1% on 10s if the economy goes down the tubes because of sanctions, student loan debt, geopolitics, and general American bubble economics.. Every 5 years the economy crashes these days. Probably overdue. Look up the q2 2012 presentation of AGNC and read through the slides. Book can go up when rates go up... Gary trades. If you want to be balanced... Buy mtge not Agnc.
    Sep 4 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency In Prime Position To Benefit From Lower Interest Rate Scenario [View article]
    I highly recommend you look up and review the presentation AGNC gave for it's Q2 2012 report. See page 7 and page 28 of that report. Just to give you an idea of what could happen. Reality is, AGNC has historically been very good with hedging it's portfolio. I think everyone in the fixed income world got caught offsides in the QE3 program because everyone thought prepayments would go up and rates would fall. They were all wrong because the taper fears took hold immediately after the program went into effect.
    Aug 23 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency In Prime Position To Benefit From Lower Interest Rate Scenario [View article]
    Exactly my point. The stock is severely undervalued. Both mtge and Agnc are....


    Liquid assets, nice yield, improving NAV.
    Aug 7 05:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q1 2014 Income Statement Projection - Part 3 [View article]
    rob, he is implying the book value is up by about 0.50. feel free to correct me if i am wrong but that is the way i read it. if agnc book is only $24.40 i will sell. this doesnt take into account active management though.. so he cant possibly know for sure. these are static estimates.
    Apr 22 09:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Mid-Q1 2014 Composition And Valuation Analysis - Part 2 [View article]
    page views. each IP address counts once. some articles deemed alpha rich get a minimum of $500.
    Mar 4 10:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Going Into 2014 [View article]
    or you could buy CHMI which is the inverse mortgage reit. as rates rise chmi's book goes up due to the majority of their capital staying in MSR. 0.50 forward quarterly dividends.. last was stub divy. so obviously a solid yield component there as well. it also trades 40 percent less than close competitor $NRZ.
    Feb 28 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gary Kain Is The Warren Buffett Of Mortgages [View article]
    if you buy AGNC stock, you buy other mreits stock at a 20% discount, which is in turn priced at 20% discount.. total discount 40%. So... it makes sense to get AGNC /MTGE back to book.
    Feb 9 06:52 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q4 2013 Income Statement Projection (Part 3) [View article]
    Scott, i think you underestimate the rebalancing actions. It's hard to project the true performance of AGNC with all the rebalancing they do. But you do the best job that one could possibly do. I don't even want to think about all the work you put into these articles.. it's so much... I hope SA is giving you at least $500 every time you write one of these. Thanks 4 all your hard work.
    Jan 30 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q4 2013 Income Statement Projection (Part 3) [View article]
    vic, why did u buy agnc? income? they are the best managed mreit.
    Jan 23 01:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    Rokgpsman, to hedge a huge short treasury position probably. They are trying to capture the discount.. going duration neutral.
    Jan 5 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AGNC by William Packer
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