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William Packer

 
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  • American Capital Agency: Let's Face Facts [View article]
    Short rates going up does not have to mean long rates will go up too.... It's called a flattener... I don't even believe short rates will go up. Probably go into another recession by then. But if it does happen.. The big rate move was from 1.4% to 2.4% on the 10 year.. Maybe in 2016 it will be 3.4% on 10s. But rates could just as easily go to 1% on 10s if the economy goes down the tubes because of sanctions, student loan debt, geopolitics, and general American bubble economics.. Every 5 years the economy crashes these days. Probably overdue. Look up the q2 2012 presentation of AGNC and read through the slides. Book can go up when rates go up... Gary trades. If you want to be balanced... Buy mtge not Agnc.
    Sep 4 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency In Prime Position To Benefit From Lower Interest Rate Scenario [View article]
    I highly recommend you look up and review the presentation AGNC gave for it's Q2 2012 report. See page 7 and page 28 of that report. Just to give you an idea of what could happen. Reality is, AGNC has historically been very good with hedging it's portfolio. I think everyone in the fixed income world got caught offsides in the QE3 program because everyone thought prepayments would go up and rates would fall. They were all wrong because the taper fears took hold immediately after the program went into effect.
    Aug 23 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency In Prime Position To Benefit From Lower Interest Rate Scenario [View article]
    Exactly my point. The stock is severely undervalued. Both mtge and Agnc are....


    Liquid assets, nice yield, improving NAV.
    Aug 7 05:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q1 2014 Income Statement Projection - Part 3 [View article]
    rob, he is implying the book value is up by about 0.50. feel free to correct me if i am wrong but that is the way i read it. if agnc book is only $24.40 i will sell. this doesnt take into account active management though.. so he cant possibly know for sure. these are static estimates.
    Apr 22 09:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Mid-Q1 2014 Composition And Valuation Analysis - Part 2 [View article]
    page views. each IP address counts once. some articles deemed alpha rich get a minimum of $500.
    Mar 4 10:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Going Into 2014 [View article]
    or you could buy CHMI which is the inverse mortgage reit. as rates rise chmi's book goes up due to the majority of their capital staying in MSR. 0.50 forward quarterly dividends.. last was stub divy. so obviously a solid yield component there as well. it also trades 40 percent less than close competitor $NRZ.
    Feb 28 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gary Kain Is The Warren Buffett Of Mortgages [View article]
    if you buy AGNC stock, you buy other mreits stock at a 20% discount, which is in turn priced at 20% discount.. total discount 40%. So... it makes sense to get AGNC /MTGE back to book.
    Feb 9 06:52 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q4 2013 Income Statement Projection (Part 3) [View article]
    Scott, i think you underestimate the rebalancing actions. It's hard to project the true performance of AGNC with all the rebalancing they do. But you do the best job that one could possibly do. I don't even want to think about all the work you put into these articles.. it's so much... I hope SA is giving you at least $500 every time you write one of these. Thanks 4 all your hard work.
    Jan 30 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q4 2013 Income Statement Projection (Part 3) [View article]
    vic, why did u buy agnc? income? they are the best managed mreit.
    Jan 23 01:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    Rokgpsman, to hedge a huge short treasury position probably. They are trying to capture the discount.. going duration neutral.
    Jan 5 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Q4 Better Than It Seems [View article]
    tstreet, look at ANH mreit. 7 percent yield and they cut 30 pct and stock went up. ok.. so dividend yield is not the driver of share price
    Jan 4 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Q4 Better Than It Seems [View article]
    This really didn't say anything new. What's funny is that i have submitted articles to SA that provided complex strategies as well as deeper insight into AGNC and they have been denied - claiming that the articles didn't really add any new insight. Did you submit this as a premium article? honestly, your time writing this could have been better spent trading futures. i make so much more money there than in these stocks, even though most of my money is tied up in stocks. (i have 21,500 shares of MTGE). i'd be glad to help you with futures trading if you are new there. private message me if you want to learn more.
    Jan 4 09:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    The profile is up-to-date. you have to scroll through it to see all the updates. I don't update on my futures positions there anymore because I move between long and short positions there way too much to update that. I think if you see AGNC up more than MTGE tomorrow you should sell AGNC and move to MTGE as a buy and hold. You will have less rate risk there and management has more capabilities to protect shareholder value.
    Jan 2 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    yeah you'd have to look in my profile for an update... i update there usually.. Maybe i forgot this time. I'd have to take a look. I am long 21,500 MTGE and retained extra cash. I swap between AGNC and MTGE regularly... based on the spread. $1.50 to 1.60 spread means SELL MTGE, swap to AGNC. $1.70 to $2.00 spread, means SELL AGNC, buy MTGE. It all varies.. it really does... i mean.. it depends what interest rates are doing and other technical factors.. but i move between those two stocks... I also actively trade in the treasury futures market, which has been very profitable for me.
    Jan 2 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    VTFI, AGNC currently has no means to purchase MSR securities. MTGE closed on a servicer in Q4, which allows for the purchase and servicing of MSR for MTGE.
    Jan 2 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AGNC by William Packer
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299 Comments
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