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William Packer

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  • American Capital Agency's Mid-Q1 2014 Composition And Valuation Analysis - Part 2 [View article]
    page views. each IP address counts once. some articles deemed alpha rich get a minimum of $500.
    Mar 4 10:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Going Into 2014 [View article]
    or you could buy CHMI which is the inverse mortgage reit. as rates rise chmi's book goes up due to the majority of their capital staying in MSR. 0.50 forward quarterly dividends.. last was stub divy. so obviously a solid yield component there as well. it also trades 40 percent less than close competitor $NRZ.
    Feb 28 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gary Kain Is The Warren Buffett Of Mortgages [View article]
    if you buy AGNC stock, you buy other mreits stock at a 20% discount, which is in turn priced at 20% discount.. total discount 40%. So... it makes sense to get AGNC /MTGE back to book.
    Feb 9 06:52 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q4 2013 Income Statement Projection (Part 3) [View article]
    Scott, i think you underestimate the rebalancing actions. It's hard to project the true performance of AGNC with all the rebalancing they do. But you do the best job that one could possibly do. I don't even want to think about all the work you put into these articles.. it's so much... I hope SA is giving you at least $500 every time you write one of these. Thanks 4 all your hard work.
    Jan 30 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q4 2013 Income Statement Projection (Part 3) [View article]
    vic, why did u buy agnc? income? they are the best managed mreit.
    Jan 23 01:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    Rokgpsman, to hedge a huge short treasury position probably. They are trying to capture the discount.. going duration neutral.
    Jan 5 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Q4 Better Than It Seems [View article]
    tstreet, look at ANH mreit. 7 percent yield and they cut 30 pct and stock went up. ok.. so dividend yield is not the driver of share price
    Jan 4 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Q4 Better Than It Seems [View article]
    This really didn't say anything new. What's funny is that i have submitted articles to SA that provided complex strategies as well as deeper insight into AGNC and they have been denied - claiming that the articles didn't really add any new insight. Did you submit this as a premium article? honestly, your time writing this could have been better spent trading futures. i make so much more money there than in these stocks, even though most of my money is tied up in stocks. (i have 21,500 shares of MTGE). i'd be glad to help you with futures trading if you are new there. private message me if you want to learn more.
    Jan 4 09:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    The profile is up-to-date. you have to scroll through it to see all the updates. I don't update on my futures positions there anymore because I move between long and short positions there way too much to update that. I think if you see AGNC up more than MTGE tomorrow you should sell AGNC and move to MTGE as a buy and hold. You will have less rate risk there and management has more capabilities to protect shareholder value.
    Jan 2 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    yeah you'd have to look in my profile for an update... i update there usually.. Maybe i forgot this time. I'd have to take a look. I am long 21,500 MTGE and retained extra cash. I swap between AGNC and MTGE regularly... based on the spread. $1.50 to 1.60 spread means SELL MTGE, swap to AGNC. $1.70 to $2.00 spread, means SELL AGNC, buy MTGE. It all varies.. it really does... i mean.. it depends what interest rates are doing and other technical factors.. but i move between those two stocks... I also actively trade in the treasury futures market, which has been very profitable for me.
    Jan 2 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    VTFI, AGNC currently has no means to purchase MSR securities. MTGE closed on a servicer in Q4, which allows for the purchase and servicing of MSR for MTGE.
    Jan 2 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    mobile, i disagree. The 10-yr treasury has pretty much topped out at 3% and non-agency prices keep going up really fast. So MTGE is definitely a buy.
    Jan 2 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    VTFI, consider selling AGNC and buying MTGE instead Plus the yield is higher.
    Jan 1 07:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    Brian G, No. MTGE now owns a servicer. So they have access to the MSR and whole loan markets now. That makes the differences between MTGE and AGNC even larger than ever before. MSRs move up in value as rates rise and currently yield 8-10% on an unlevered basis. Whole loans yield 9-13%
    Jan 1 12:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Very Attractive, But Not A No-Brainer Yet [View article]
    Brian. GTFO of here. lol. mREITs are not as risky as you try to portray them. If you are that scared of rate risk... move to MTGE. When rates shot up in Q2 2013, MTGE lost only 6% of book vs AGNC's 11% and CYS's 20%. (most peers lost around 20%) . Non-agency went up big in Q4. Perhaps offsetting the majority of the agency MBS losses.
    Jan 1 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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