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William Packer  

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  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q4 2014 Earnings Projection - Part 2 [View article]
    AGNC is actively managed... therefore.. it really doesn't matter what computations you do... because the numbers can be way off... due to it's actively managed portfolio... But scott does a good job estimating the potential impacts if the portfolio remained stagnant.
    Jan 19, 2015. 03:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have Concerns Regarding American Capital Agency After The Dividend Announcement [View article]
    Jraskib, the stock won't stay here. It will go up in a big way. The market just has not seen the report yet.. so the report will cause the confirmation. One way to play this.. is to buy the next months CALL options... so if you wanted to own say.. 2000 shares.. you just buy 20 contracts of the $22 strike... that will limit your downside and give you plenty of upside. Just an idea. I have all my money tied up in the BDC sector.. so I can't participate in this... but i wish you all the best.
    Jan 16, 2015. 02:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have Concerns Regarding American Capital Agency After The Dividend Announcement [View article]
    Hey, Rob. It's been a while. Good to hear from you again. It won't be $30.00. I know I said $30.00 but that is in reference to book values today... And in reality... it's probably $28 to $30. (and $26.50 to $27.20 reported) Ok. On the prepayments... AGNC probably moved the portfolio into prepayment protected paper... and in a hurry.. so i think the presentation will be all about prepayment protection changes and more 30 year paper. I may be wrong.. but I get the feeling Gary saw rates dropping fast and moved into even more prepayment protected stuff which sense has probably rallied a lot in terms of payups.

    I think $AGNC is a buy at today's prices.. because I see much higher book values and stable earnings for now. I see fed rate hikes as largely hedged away for now... and thus $AGNC is a strong buy to me. But I am not long $AGNC and I am completely tied down in $MCC right now. I don't plan on going back to mREITs until the BDC sector completely recovers and trades above book again.
    Jan 16, 2015. 02:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Have Concerns Regarding American Capital Agency After The Dividend Announcement [View article]
    They don't report the book value this month because they report in only a couple weeks. This will be normal. That said, book value probably went up significantly... maybe $30.00 per share. I bet they are maintaining the earnings power pretty well too.. So I would not expect a dividend cut.. especially as they already declared 0.22.
    Jan 16, 2015. 02:05 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Solidifies Attractive Credentials With Double-Digit Dividend Yield And Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    otto, that is just the name. They are not solar related. Everyone seems to think they are a solar company just because of their name.
    Nov 25, 2014. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Solidifies Attractive Credentials With Double-Digit Dividend Yield And Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    Again, if you look at $SLRC.. It is a senior secured floating rate loan book. That means the companies SLRC invests in have collateral to back up the loans, the loans they make are mostly senior to any other debt, and they pay floating rates based on Libor. (so if fed funds goes up... so does the income). If all the loans repaid today, you would get more than $22.34 per share... but the stock only trades at $18 and change. So nearly a 20% discount to the mark-to-market fair value of the loans! Meanwhile, when you own this... you collect the income the loans produce... while you wait for the stock price to go back above NAV... which will happen as rates go up and as the Joint-venture with PIMCO kicks into gear in 2015!

    If you look at the NAV.. it has been stable since IPO!
    Nov 20, 2014. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Solidifies Attractive Credentials With Double-Digit Dividend Yield And Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    All these funds trade at premiums or discounts to NAV based on various factors or perceptions by the market. A lot of it has nothing to do with the company performance itself. $AGNC.... you have to take all the dividends and add the + or - change to book value (NAV) to determine how well management is doing. AGNC has generated returns in excess of 200% in the past 5 years.

    I am not going to add all this up for you.. just look at what YYY is holding in it's portfolio. It's got dogs in there. If you really wanted.. you could copy the portfolio and then skip the management fee for YYY. But you really have to dig down and find the economic returns for all the companies in the portfolio and compare them to the returns for the s&P 500. I don't like $PSEC, as I have said... the company has earned very little in economic terms... I like $SLRC, $TICC, $MTGE. But I only own $SLRC and at a price of $18.55, 25,000 shares.

    If you are just talking about total returns.. my clients are up 23.8% this year after all fees and expenses. I have never had a down year since January 2008, when I got into this business.
    Nov 20, 2014. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Solidifies Attractive Credentials With Double-Digit Dividend Yield And Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    Just a follow up on what you said LOBPW, Be really careful about anything that yields anything in this market.. most of these companies have total economic returns that are NEGATIVE. Yeah... So you can see a high yield figure but in the end... they don't actually make anyone any money. Or very little money.. even if you invested in $PSEC for example, at IPO... you would have made 3% per year on your investment. Most of these BDCs, high yield ETFs.. etc... have extremely low economic returns. Of course, then you have your REITs.. and a lot of REITs have done very well.. especially in healthcare... mortgage REITs like $AGNC and $MTGE have done very well (in total return) for shareholders... $NLY since IPO did really well too... But I don't like $NLY.

    You are welcome to contact me anytime about anything you find in the market.. I will research it if I don't follow it.. and get back to you on my opinion... I hate watching individual investors get screwed over by greedy crooks.
    Nov 20, 2014. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Solidifies Attractive Credentials With Double-Digit Dividend Yield And Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    Learning to be patient with... , $YYY is disgusting. Gonna be blunt here... it owns dog poo. It's basically an ETF that owns ETFs... so you get double the management fees and you own a bunch of under-performing funds. I noticed they had $AOD in there.. I almost rolled on the floor laughing when I saw that name. Those people are just out to steal shareholders money... Add up all the dividends and then capital losses.. they never made anyone any money. I won't go into too much detail on those people... but they invest in a stock just before ex-dividend.. then the stock goes ex-dividend and drops by the dividend amount... then AOD sells the stock for a loss. They still collect the dividend because they owned on ex-dividend day... so they call that "taxable income" and pay it out to investors... meanwhile... the funds NAV drops because of the capital loss they took. So it is a ponzi scheme that is taxable to investors to get a return of capital... but then comes the depreciation from fees and everything else.. so investors can't become whole.

    At least $AGNC has generated economic returns in excess of 200% over the past 5 years.
    Nov 20, 2014. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Solidifies Attractive Credentials With Double-Digit Dividend Yield And Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    Exactly... so you can take some of the risk out right here. If you sell $AGNC and buy $SLRC instead.. you get a little lower yield to start... but if you factor in that AGNC will have to cut the dividend more later when NIM compresses... and you factor in further book value loss possibly as rates normalize.. and you factor in the higher dividends from SLRC later as the floating rate portfolio produces more income and the JV with PIMCO kicks into gear in 2015... you got a bigger discount to NAV @ SLRC than AGNC too... much more stable NAV at $SLRC... So much to say about this... i will just stop here.

    I don't think you can kick $AGNC that much though about the 2013 deal.... they just rebalance based on the trends they are seeing... you have to actively manage positions when you are an mREIT.. they did really well for a long time and since IPO... the book has grown a lot.

    I think if you are going to be long an mREIT.. you gotta pick MTGE instead of AGNC.
    Nov 20, 2014. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Solidifies Attractive Credentials With Double-Digit Dividend Yield And Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    Take a good look at $SLRC. Nice to buy at 20% discount to NAV and get paid 8.6% starting.. with dividend raises in 2016-17.
    Nov 20, 2014. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Solidifies Attractive Credentials With Double-Digit Dividend Yield And Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    Jgrever621, the fed doesn't care. It will raise rates by 0.25 increments starting in maybe may or june 2015 and will end the year around 1.25% fed funds. I really don't want to go into the whys on this reply.. because I don't want to write you a paper as a response.

    Also, I don't know why you wouldn't like $AGNC, which has no credit risk in the mortgage space, if you felt rates were going to stay put. Agency MBS and govt bonds have done well all year.. but now they are overpriced and the bond market is falling behind the curve.

    If you really liked high rate investments.. you would be really digging deep into the BDC space.. and looking for the ones that will fair best in a rising rate environment. (even if you don't think they will raise rates in the near term... investors invest for the long haul...)
    Nov 20, 2014. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Solidifies Attractive Credentials With Double-Digit Dividend Yield And Price Appreciation Potential [View article]
    Fed will raise rates, Agnc will go down because NiM will drop. 80 cents on dollar might be valuation. Will just get worse as rates go up further into 2017-18
    Nov 20, 2014. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How American Capital Agency Corp. Controls The Cost Of Capital: A Primer On Swaps And Repurchase Agreements [View article]
    The % of repurchase agreements covered by swaps section is misleading. $AGNC is not 98% hedged like you show.. The actually intend on bringing the securities on balance sheet at some point.. when dollar roll specialness is not as good. It's just a temporary deal... it is not sustainable... AGNC only looks better compared to peers in terms of % repo swapped in your model because of that huge TBA position that is currently not taken in... but if you look at AGNC's own models.. they are something like 76% hedged not 98%. While I don't expect you to make a correction to your article.. I just want to put that out there so other people viewing understand that $AGNC is not 98% hedged from short rates rising. NIM compression would be much higher.
    Nov 17, 2014. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How American Capital Agency Corp. Controls The Cost Of Capital: A Primer On Swaps And Repurchase Agreements [View article]
    I think you are failing to account for the net long TBA position on certain metrics you are describing. The TBA position, while not on REPO, can be taken on balance sheet at any time...
    Nov 4, 2014. 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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