Seeking Alpha

William Packer

 
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  • William Packer
    $CHMI a solid buy and shooting up today. $23.00 PT, A discount to the valuation given to $NRZ. $AGNC, $MTGE, $CYS, $TWO,
    1 hour ago
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      • William Packer
        $HTS ARMs portfolio should hold up better than most. I give it a $20 price target after reviewing quarterly results.
        Tue, 6:32 PM
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          • William Packer
            $AGNC management notes that spreads lately have been tightening when rates rise and widening when rates fall. Well... What if it doesn't?
            Tue, 1:20 PM
            Reply (9)
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            • William Packer: Because you got rate risk and spread risk with AGNC... So with the present situation.. can't see much upside in book value.. only downside
              Tue, 1:28 PM
            • William Packer: I stick with my current price target of $20 on $AGNC with possible downside risk to my target. (meaning it can easily drop below $20 later)
              Tue, 1:30 PM
              • William Packer
                prospects of further language changes in the Fed statement should not surprise investors, but it just might cause a sell off in bonds $AGNC
                Tue, 1:18 PM
                Reply (1)
                • William Packer: A sell off in bonds could trigger volatility in $AGNC shares.
                  Tue, 1:19 PM
                  • William Packer
                    I am putting a personal price target on $TWO of $11.00. The company understands and manages interest rate risk very well. Risk is very low.
                    Mon, 1:31 PM
                    Reply (1)
                    • William Packer: The company remains attractively priced and likely to experience capital appreciation over the longer term.
                      Mon, 1:32 PM
                      • William Packer
                        Low rates cannot be "contained." As the "sleeping beast" awakens(US economy) rates will rise.$CYS, $MTGE, $AGNC. Book values will decline
                        Mon, 1:11 PM
                        Reply (17)
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                        • William Packer: I would also focus my hedges on the 5 and 7 year part of the curve for MTGE's hedges. That is just what would make sense to me.
                          Mon, 6:19 PM
                        • William Packer: I look forward to MTGE's earnings report and we'll see how they did.
                          Mon, 6:22 PM
                          • William Packer
                            I am putting a personal sell rating and price target of $8.00 on $CYS. The company is likely to experience losses as the economy improves.
                            Mon, 1:04 PM
                            Reply (1)
                            • William Packer: I believe ultimately, $CYS will trade much lower than $8. But in that is the short term price target (6 months or less)
                              Mon, 1:07 PM
                              • William Packer
                                I am putting a personal sell rating on $MTGE and personal price target of $18.75 . About 85% of estimated Q3 book value.
                                Mon, 1:01 PM
                                Reply
                                  • William Packer
                                    I am putting a personal SELL rating on $AGNC with a $20.00 price target. This represents close to a 20% discount to Q3 estimated NAV levels
                                    Mon, 12:36 PM
                                    Reply (3)
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                                    • roman roman: You mean constructions must lose $ 20 ?
                                      Mon, 2:55 PM
                                    • roman roman: You mean constructions must lose $ 20 ?
                                      Mon, 2:55 PM
                                      • William Packer
                                        Loaded 23,800 shares of $SLRC @ cost of $18.65/share. $PSEC, $AINV, $ARCC, $TICC, $ACAS, $TCAP, $ACSF
                                        Oct 23, 1:31 PM
                                        Reply (1)
                                        • William Packer: Current investment value: $441,490.00 Investment value at NAV: $534,072.00 Difference: $92,582.00
                                          Oct 23, 1:31 PM
                                          • William Packer
                                            SUGGESTION: SELL $MTGE, $AGNC, BUY $SLRC. Why? price to book discount is bigger for $SLRC. MTGE,AGNC likely to report bad quarters.
                                            Oct 23, 11:39 AM
                                            Reply (7)
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                                            • William Packer: The market could easily freak about that 4% decline, Also, look at rates.They are going up now again after bottoming around 1.9% (10s)
                                              Oct 23, 12:46 PM
                                            • William Packer: So rates are up like 40 basis points off the lows... So to me, that says they put in a bottom and are going to finally move higher.
                                              Oct 23, 12:50 PM
                                              • William Packer
                                                I bought 50,750 shares of $TICC today @ $7.87. $PSEC, $AGNC, $MTGE. 10 yr Bond yields are at 2% guys, wow.
                                                Oct 15, 12:55 PM
                                                Reply (2)
                                                • jennypenny: Bought TICC yesterday as well. Wondering if we're a little early.
                                                  Oct 16, 6:21 AM
                                                • William Packer: Jenny, I think our timing was perfect. I am waiting for TICC to recover to NAV price levels.
                                                  Oct 16, 11:31 AM
                                                  • William Packer
                                                    Now might be the time to sell positions in $AGNC and $MTGE and rotate into $ACSF. Higher short rates may drive panic early next year.
                                                    Oct 12, 11:36 AM
                                                    Reply (12)
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                                                    • William Packer: Conditions are not there that would normally support a higher risk of recession... Which puts the economy at risk of a break out to upside
                                                      Oct 12, 12:09 PM
                                                    • William Packer: A break out to upside would likely cause significant inflation, driving a faster pace of raises to fed funds levels than market expectations
                                                      Oct 12, 12:10 PM
                                                      • William Packer
                                                        bought 32,113 shares of $ACSF @ 13.25 cost average. $AGNC, $MTGE, $ACAS. Seems extremely cheap given the discount and asset quality/mix
                                                        Oct 10, 3:08 PM
                                                        Reply
                                                          • William Packer
                                                            Agency mbs now trading positive on the day $AGNC http://bit.ly/17a2wZL
                                                            Oct 3, 2:35 PM
                                                            Reply
                                                              • William Packer
                                                                Bond prices little changed after big employment report. off by 3 basis points on 10 YR. Little reason to sell $AGNC.
                                                                Oct 3, 8:57 AM
                                                                Reply (6)
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                                                                • William Packer: NAV could still remain stable or even grow in some cases. It depends on how fast rates rise, rebalance activity, agency prices vs tsy
                                                                  Oct 3, 10:51 AM
                                                                • Rob1492: William I think you are missing my point... worse case would take a rapid 160 bp rise to eliminate discount which is extremely unlikely
                                                                  Oct 3, 11:51 AM
                                                                  • William Packer
                                                                    $AGNC Announces Change from Quarterly to Monthly Common Dividend Distributions and the Commencement of Monthly Net Asset Value Estimates
                                                                    Sep 30, 4:22 PM
                                                                    Reply
                                                                      • William Packer
                                                                        bought 190 $AGNC $21.50 CALLS @ 0.14. Expires this week.
                                                                        Sep 29, 10:45 AM
                                                                        Reply (4)
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                                                                        • William Packer: a $22 stock price on a $25.50 NAV = 86c on the dollar. That is a 3% decline in NAV for the quarter from last quarter.
                                                                          Sep 29, 11:12 AM
                                                                        • William Packer: The loss is based on slightly wider spreads since the end of the prior quarter. But NAV may rebound this week.
                                                                          Sep 29, 11:15 AM
                                                                          • William Packer
                                                                            $AGNC down when MBS and treasury prices are both up. Cute. It's like pulling teeth to get this stock to go up.
                                                                            Sep 22, 11:09 AM
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                                                                              • William Packer
                                                                                Why doesn't $AGNC spend some time searching for more IO bonds? Are they that worried about contraction risk, really?
                                                                                Sep 20, 2:50 PM
                                                                                Reply (2)
                                                                                • William Packer: I know it's hard to find a enough to move the needle, but over time you would think... you could add over there.. and get somewhere.
                                                                                  Sep 20, 2:56 PM
                                                                                • Darren McCammon: an article, or a section in an article, explaining IOs and how contraction risk effects them would be interesting.
                                                                                  Sep 20, 6:12 PM