Seeking Alpha

William Packer

 
View William Packer's StockTalks BY TICKER:
  • William Packer
    My thoughts on $MTGE... is that interest rates are probably nearing a low point and will go higher over the next 3-12 months on long end.but
    4 hours ago
    Reply (7)
  • View all 7 replies
    • William Packer: So a rising rate environment should be OK for $MTGE, yet I will benefit from my hedges anyways. That gives me more spread risk.
      3 hours ago
    • William Packer: But it also reduces my interest rate risk for $MTGE.
      3 hours ago
      • William Packer
        $MTGE is cheap compared to other mREITs. I am a buyer under $20.
        5 hours ago
        Reply
          • William Packer
            Converted 25,000 shares of $CHMI into 25,000 shares of $SLRC. Was a 1 for 1 swap almost.. cost $100 out of pocket. Very close. $AGNC
            Nov 17, 1:30 PM
            Reply
              • William Packer
                If I was $HAL.. I would offer the equivalent of $72-$74 per share for $BHI. Guess we will see soon enough.
                Nov 14, 10:13 AM
                Reply (1)
                • D-struction: Agreed.
                  Nov 14, 10:28 AM
                  • William Packer
                    Purchased 25,000 shares of $CHMI @ $17.84 cost average. Very close to my $17.75 target level. I am happy with this risk/reward here. $AGNC
                    Nov 13, 11:53 AM
                    Reply (33)
                  • View all 33 replies
                    • William Packer: And the effect to NAV would be minimal... 26,500 shares MTGE at NAV close to $590k. So little changed yet huge boost to income side.
                      Nov 14, 1:40 PM
                    • William Packer: I would then stop swapping. Take a break and enjoy higher income from MTGE and hopefully NAV appreciation over time.
                      Nov 14, 1:47 PM
                      • William Packer
                        Sold $AGNC $22.64, 20,000 shares.bought $SLRC cost average $18.66, 24,250 shares.(see how my share count keeps going up? that's from profits
                        Nov 13, 9:56 AM
                        Reply (4)
                      • View all 4 replies
                        • William Packer: I agree with that riot..Selling $AGNC at the $22.80 price level seems like a good idea.maybe consider purchasing MTGE. The spread is $3.11.
                          Nov 14, 11:28 AM
                        • William Packer: Also $CHMI is still compelling..trading around 86 cents on the dollar.. $18.40. I am up around $14,000 on my last $CHMI purchase.not selling
                          Nov 14, 11:35 AM
                          • William Packer
                            Maintain personal buy rating on $CHMI and price target of $23.00, a premium to NAV. (No current position in the stock)
                            Nov 12, 10:51 PM
                            Reply (7)
                          • View all 7 replies
                            • William Packer: Continued: if rates keep falling - $CHMI could face some depreciation on MSRs but mostly offset by agencies. Higher prepays is a risk.
                              Nov 12, 11:03 PM
                            • William Packer: Loss to CHMI book was caused by depreciation on MSR portfolio and wider spreads on agency side compared to hedges,
                              Nov 12, 11:04 PM
                              • William Packer
                                Just reiterating that I expect an $AGNC PR tonight (33.3%) or tomorrow. (66.6%) chance. 0.22 dividend estimate, $25.80 to $26.20 book range.
                                Nov 12, 1:36 PM
                                Reply (8)
                              • View all 8 replies
                                • William Packer: Market conditions for agency mbs have improved greatly.. market is stable for agencies..and spreads are having that effect Gary talked about
                                  Nov 12, 2:47 PM
                                • William Packer: I can't see any reason for them not boosting leverage to 8x at least in the short term. But we'll see.
                                  Nov 12, 2:48 PM
                                  • William Packer
                                    Bought 20,000 shares $AGNC @ 22.54. Locked and loaded for the October book value and dividend announcement this week.
                                    Nov 10, 11:46 AM
                                    Reply (3)
                                  • View all 3 replies
                                    • worthless111: Just joined the $AGNC choir at 22.48...not the best price today but in the game before the foul shot
                                      Nov 12, 12:46 PM
                                    • worthless111: $AGNC If its worth 26.00 then I am in at ~ 87 cents
                                      Nov 12, 12:52 PM
                                      • William Packer
                                        $SLRC has a very high quality investment portfolio. Low leverage... New JV deal to add significant income and higher dividend down the line
                                        Nov 8, 10:31 AM
                                        Reply (4)
                                      • View all 4 replies
                                        • William Packer: Good for a more immediate move to $20 and longer term 3-4 month target of $22.
                                          Nov 8, 10:39 AM
                                        • William Packer: Longer term picture is better for earnings... From JV and from rising rates, higher ROE on less risky loan assets.
                                          Nov 8, 10:42 AM
                                          • William Packer
                                            Bought that dip in $SLRC from that big seller. 24,000 shares @ 18.68 buy average. NAILED IT. $PSEC, $TICC, $AGNC
                                            Nov 7, 2:30 PM
                                            Reply (6)
                                          • View all 6 replies
                                            • William Packer: Market says NAV is $26.00 even because they have $22.62 as 87c on the dollar. But I think it could come in higher around $26.37 NAV
                                              Nov 7, 3:07 PM
                                            • William Packer: If it is less than $26 NAV reported then price probably will go down from the $22.62 price level to adjust. It likes to trade 87c on dollar
                                              Nov 7, 3:09 PM
                                              • William Packer
                                                If you are long $PSEC, recommend selling in after hours at $9.75, buying $TICC on the open. This avoids gap risk, locks in gains if UP.
                                                Nov 6, 5:45 PM
                                                Reply (32)
                                              • View all 32 replies
                                                • riotmaker: Awesome, thank you for the clarification! I have been making some plays in the past ~6 months with BDCs and it is going great!
                                                  Nov 7, 2:19 PM
                                                • William Packer: Riotmaker part 6: So now I am just long $AGNC and cash.
                                                  Nov 7, 2:20 PM
                                                  • William Packer
                                                    For traders: Sell $AGNC, buy $TICC. $PSEC possible pop tomorrow, use $TICC as a tool to play that and jobs report. AGNC could drop
                                                    Nov 6, 12:25 PM
                                                    Reply
                                                      • William Packer
                                                        Went long 52k shares of $TICC @ 8.53 today. Much of NAV decline has been erased since September as values have improved. $9.55 NAV estimate.
                                                        Nov 6, 11:31 AM
                                                        Reply (1)
                                                        • William Packer: (this NAV estimate accounts for the dividend declared but not yet paid and not yet EX) So this would be a post ex-dividend NAV #
                                                          Nov 6, 12:02 PM
                                                          • William Packer
                                                            I would sell $ACAS in after hours here at $16. that's like 80c on the dollar and you can buy other assets with better returns..like discnts
                                                            Nov 5, 5:24 PM
                                                            Reply (3)
                                                          • View all 3 replies
                                                            • William Packer: The spun off assets are still going to trade like 80 to 85c on the dollar based on BDC valuations.
                                                              Nov 5, 6:07 PM
                                                            • William Packer: I think you can just wait for the spin off if you want.. and buy whichever fund that fits your investment needs.
                                                              Nov 5, 6:09 PM
                                                              • William Packer
                                                                Personal book value estimate for $AGNC for the October report of $26.37. Range $26.22 - 26.52. (October 31 book value)
                                                                Nov 5, 11:34 AM
                                                                Reply (10)
                                                              • View all 10 replies
                                                                • William Packer: You can swap between AGNC and MTGE based on the spread. Like $2.80 = buy AGNC and $3.20+ = Sell AGNC and buy MTGE. Pick up more shares...
                                                                  Nov 5, 12:38 PM
                                                                • William Packer: So because of the difference and doing this repeatedly.. you gain more shares.. and it can offset much of any NAV decline period.
                                                                  Nov 5, 12:39 PM
                                                                  • William Packer
                                                                    IF $JMI, with the worst management in the space, can trade at book or better.... So can $AGNC which has a best of breed management team.
                                                                    Nov 5, 11:00 AM
                                                                    Reply
                                                                      • William Packer
                                                                        QE 4 in the works could materialize by middle of next year instead of rate hikes. Agency mbs significantly outperforming hedges $AGNC
                                                                        Nov 5, 10:09 AM
                                                                        Reply (4)
                                                                      • View all 4 replies
                                                                        • William Packer: And here is the 4.0 coupon... still sitting at the highs. http://bit.ly/1s4OPk3
                                                                          Nov 5, 11:24 AM
                                                                        • William Packer: but you can click and see the 10 year bond yield and the 30 yr bond yield for treasury... strong downtrends in place.
                                                                          Nov 5, 11:30 AM
                                                                          • William Packer
                                                                            $AGNC bottoming. I was wrong. Buy here @ $22.46. Rates still stable. Keep eye on puts if needed for hedge.
                                                                            Nov 4, 3:57 PM
                                                                            Reply
                                                                              • William Packer
                                                                                $PSEC might reach $8.30s per share within the next month. Reason: BDCs reporting much lower NAVs. Prospect of Prospect capital selling shrs
                                                                                Nov 4, 1:26 PM
                                                                                Reply (1)
                                                                                • William Packer: below the company's NAV. Downside risk to $8.30s, upside risk is $9.50. NAV around $10.44 estimated (personal estimate)(range $9.94 - $10.44
                                                                                  Nov 4, 1:28 PM