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William Packer

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  • William Packer
    just loaded 19,000 shares of AGNC @ 21.90 and loaded 190 $AGNC May 2nd $22 calls @ 0.31. $23+ coming. Report will be fantastic. 2.70 10 yr
    Thu, 12:59 PM
    Reply (15)
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    • William Packer: mtge often underperforms agnc during periods of declining rates as well. the stock itself dogs up vs agncs fast moving liquid trades.
      Thu, 5:33 PM
    • Rob1492: yes for a trader AGNC a much more liquid trade... I am much a more intermediate term player
      Thu, 5:42 PM
      • William Packer
        up to 77,500 shares $RSO now. love the PR that came out.
        Apr 10, 12:30 PM
        Reply (3)
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        • William Packer: i am just happy to see that they put 300m capital to work in q1.
          Apr 10, 2:00 PM
        • Albert Alfonso: $RSO at current prices is a steal. The market is really hating these high yield names.
          Apr 10, 4:58 PM
          • William Packer
            hybrid mreits are likely to trade near or above book value in 2014. Non-agency prices continue to improve while agency prices remain $MTGE
            Apr 7, 1:40 PM
            Reply (3)
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            • William Packer: 15 year mortgages are probably the most attractive to own. ARMs are subject to higher prepayment speeds and low spreads.
              Apr 7, 1:44 PM
            • William Packer: 15 year mortgages also experience a good deal of seasoning as they roll down the yield curve.
              Apr 7, 1:45 PM
              • William Packer
                buying $MTGE today at $18.90 is equal to buying a portfolio of agency mbs at a time when the 10 year bond is at 4.75%.Check it out yourself.
                Apr 3, 3:58 PM
                Reply (4)
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                • William Packer: At some point you have to step in and say.."wait.. something is wrong here. The stock price is pricing in more than the worst case scenario"
                  Apr 3, 4:02 PM
                • Rob1492: Totally agree < 50% agency MBS... non-agency has credit but minimal IR risk as priced at 60 cents on $ and MSR hedges rising rates
                  Apr 3, 5:45 PM
                  • William Packer
                    $MTGE might be a good buy after Thursday's claims data.Friday unemployment report might miss estimates sending bond investors on a bull rush
                    Apr 3, 3:44 PM
                    Reply
                      • William Packer
                        Bought 75,000 shares of $RSO today @ $5.57 per share.Seems like a good place to start buying.
                        Apr 2, 11:25 AM
                        Reply (10)
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                        • Rob1492: You trade too fast for me! I think MTGE is oversold right now!
                          Apr 2, 8:59 PM
                        • William Packer: Repurchased $MTGE today ahead of tomorrows unemployment report.
                          Apr 3, 3:40 PM
                          • William Packer
                            stability in the long end of the yield curve has got my mind set on other opportunities.Sold $CHMI, 23,000 shares all above $19.bought $MTGE
                            Mar 26, 2:45 PM
                            Reply (10)
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                            • William Packer: CHMI will close the march quarter (q1) at these levels, so mark to market will show a much lower book when they report the q1.
                              Mar 26, 3:48 PM
                            • Rob1492: yup I get you...
                              Mar 26, 4:45 PM
                              • William Packer
                                As of December 31, 2013 , Cherry Hill's GAAP book value was $21.44 per share. $CHMI
                                Mar 25, 4:07 PM
                                Reply (8)
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                                • William Packer: prepayment speeds have dropped considerably. I doubt they will go up anytime soon. probably just continue to decline as rates rise.
                                  Mar 25, 5:33 PM
                                • William Packer: The results were definitely better than i expected. 21.44 x 1.20 = $25.72 fair value of the shares . (when placing a 20% premium to book)
                                  Mar 25, 5:41 PM
                                  • William Packer
                                    $CHMI "Company will release fourth quarter and full year 2013 financial results after the market closes on Tuesday, March 25, 2014."Finally!
                                    Mar 20, 4:27 PM
                                    Reply (32)
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                                    • Steven Reiman: What is "income" and what is return of principal. Almost better just to look at cash flow.
                                      Mar 25, 1:56 PM
                                    • Rob1492: Great! Thanks again! This stock seems well suited for the next few years
                                      Mar 25, 2:29 PM
                                      • William Packer
                                        $CHMI "Company will release fourth quarter and full year 2013 financial results after the market closes on Tuesday, March 25, 2014. "
                                        Mar 20, 4:26 PM
                                        Reply
                                          • William Packer
                                            $AGNC $MTGE $NLY todays fed statement is a continued reminder why investors should avoid mortgage reits over the next few years
                                            Mar 19, 2:44 PM
                                            Reply (6)
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                                            • Rob1492: SMTGE to raise dividend .75 either this or next quarter would give forward yield of 15%
                                              Mar 20, 11:40 AM
                                            • William Packer: rob, while i agree with you that MTGE could do that... I also believe there is not enough MSR/hedges right now for MTGE. Book is at risk.
                                              Mar 20, 4:26 PM
                                              • William Packer
                                                $CHMI boosts quarterly dividend by 10% to 0.50. $AGNC , $NLY, $MTGE , $TWO
                                                Mar 18, 4:09 PM
                                                Reply (5)
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                                                • jaginger: Seems like $CHMI bump too small given the 10% divvy boost
                                                  Mar 19, 11:34 AM
                                                • William Packer: Jaginger, $CHMi has yet to release a date for their financial reporting. They are late. This is weighing on the stock.
                                                  Mar 19, 3:56 PM
                                                  • William Packer
                                                    $CHMI gets lumped into mortgage reits again and sells off despite the majority of capital in MSR and a higher NAV as rates rise.
                                                    Mar 7, 11:29 AM
                                                    Reply
                                                      • William Packer
                                                        The rise in the 10 year treasury yield today signals now is probably the best time to get out of $AGNC at $22.50.
                                                        Mar 4, 1:57 PM
                                                        Reply (15)
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                                                        • William Packer: Brubaker, Short public record but large insider ownership. REIT payout system with the majority of their capital allocated to MSR.
                                                          Mar 5, 1:08 PM
                                                        • William Packer: As rates rise... MSR goes up in value, income goes up (yield enhances on less prepays), dividends go up, and ultimately the stock goes up.
                                                          Mar 5, 1:20 PM
                                                          • William Packer
                                                            Unlikely $AGNC and $NLY.... Company $CHMI is set to grow book value as rates rise and generate a solid dividend return from their MSR.
                                                            Feb 12, 1:46 PM
                                                            Reply (5)
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                                                            • William Packer: The 10 year bond moved from 2.61 back to 2.76 and climbing... Despite weaker economic data.. Blame the weather excuse...
                                                              Feb 12, 2:33 PM
                                                            • William Packer: but imagine when economic activity picks up again later this year.. rates will really get a boost, imo.
                                                              Feb 12, 2:34 PM
                                                              • William Packer
                                                                Proud owner of 23,000 shares of $CHMI. Purchased today. Will add at prices below $18.50. competitor NRZ is priced 40% higher.$25 to $26 PT.
                                                                Feb 12, 1:45 PM
                                                                Reply (5)
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                                                                • William Packer: Also, NRZ trades about 40% richer in valuation.
                                                                  Feb 12, 2:30 PM
                                                                • William Packer: The proceeds from the IPO were 19.733333 per share. Maybe that will help you in calculating asset values.
                                                                  Feb 12, 8:04 PM
                                                                  • William Packer
                                                                    Bought 21,500 shares $MTGE, sold 23,000 $HTS. Gary seems to have got the first quarter in the bag... unless this Q1 rally gets crushed
                                                                    Feb 6, 10:15 AM
                                                                    Reply (6)
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                                                                    • William Packer: yeah but the interest rate sensitivity and spread risk much greater at $AGNC vs $MTGE... yet MTGE will generate higher ROEs
                                                                      Feb 6, 3:23 PM
                                                                    • Cash King: true true. I agree that $MTGE is a little better right now. I just think that $AGNC isn't all that bad either.
                                                                      Feb 8, 8:45 AM
                                                                      • William Packer
                                                                        $HTS's book value today might be higher than $MTGE's today. so maybe the price between both assets will meet up.
                                                                        Feb 4, 10:08 PM
                                                                        Reply (1)
                                                                        • William Packer: i think $hts will outperform
                                                                          Feb 4, 10:09 PM
                                                                          • William Packer
                                                                            Also bought 23,000 $HTS shares today. I think HTS may be benefiting from the $AGNC peer purchase program. Should I call it that? >.<
                                                                            Feb 4, 12:55 PM
                                                                            Reply (4)
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                                                                            • joe kelly: Digging MORL. Mr. Packer is the one who turned me on to it. So far so good.
                                                                              Feb 4, 2:00 PM
                                                                            • Tucker Leppa: Well, why would they want to repurchase more shares?!? They don't want to lower management fees you know!
                                                                              Feb 4, 4:34 PM
                                                                              • William Packer
                                                                                Got out of $AGNC today @ $21.30 Just tired of the interest rate game. Went long 25,000 shares $MITT. Credit game.
                                                                                Feb 4, 10:02 AM
                                                                                Reply (5)
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                                                                                • William Packer: Then kain runs around buying other mortgage reits... i mean.. come on.. what does that say? He's lost it.
                                                                                  Feb 4, 10:55 AM
                                                                                • William Packer: There is no more special sauce at AGNC. Just lucky gamblers.
                                                                                  Feb 4, 10:55 AM