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William Packer

 
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  • William Packer
    This appears to be the turning point in yields. $AGNC $MTGE $AMTG. Yields unlikely to retest the 2.3% level, more likely to rise from here.
    5 hours ago
    Reply (7)
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    • William Packer: My expectation is that volatility will go up substantially from here in the bond market. If I was an agency mortgage REIT...
      5 hours ago
    • William Packer: I would use this time to put on some swaptions.
      5 hours ago
      • William Packer
        Bought 27,000 shares @ 16.39 cost today of $AMTG. I see higher home prices coming after this weeks data. AMTG has a lot of subprime floaters
        Tue, 4:46 PM
        Reply
          • William Packer
            As I was saying. we are closing in on 2% for the 10 year bond. It wants to go there or lower. $AGNC, $MTGE
            Fri, 11:28 AM
            Reply (1)
            • William Packer: Book value on $AGNC could be $31 to $33 by year end.
              Fri, 11:28 AM
              • William Packer
                Bought $TWO, $HTS, $CHMI, $NLY, $AGNC, $MITT, $MTGE, $EFC, $AI, $EARN, $CYS, $WMC. Equal amounts, except for EARN is 1/3 size.
                Aug 8, 3:14 PM
                Reply (27)
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                • William Packer: non-agency is TOXIC and I don't want to be anywhere near it when thing it the fan. It's all overpriced now.
                  Aug 13, 11:15 AM
                • William Packer: Priced to perfection!
                  Aug 13, 11:16 AM
                  • William Packer
                    US stock prices are up. Bond prices are up big over last 2 days. $AGNC stuck in the mud. WHAT'S THE PROBLEM?
                    Aug 8, 1:05 PM
                    Reply
                      • William Packer
                        And there it is 2.38% in over night markets on 10s. $AGNC
                        Aug 7, 9:58 PM
                        Reply (2)
                        • William Packer: Yields falling fast
                          Aug 7, 9:58 PM
                        • William Packer: AGNC just keeps getting cheaper via asset appreciation
                          Aug 7, 10:00 PM
                          • William Packer
                            Bought 190 $AGNC Aug 16 2014 23 Call 9 Days to Expiration @ cost of 0.32.
                            Aug 7, 4:01 PM
                            Reply (3)
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                            • William Packer: You would think $AGNC was selling natural gas based on the price action today.
                              Aug 7, 5:31 PM
                            • William Packer: People just don't understand this stock
                              Aug 7, 5:32 PM
                              • William Packer
                                Bought $AGNC (Weekly) Aug 8 2014 23.5 Call 1 Days to Expiration, 190 contracts @ 0.02 cost.
                                Aug 7, 12:04 PM
                                Reply (12)
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                                • William Packer: I pay $7 a trade @ TD.
                                  Aug 7, 1:10 PM
                                • William Packer: I like the thinkorswim platform and i'm willing to pay more to use it.
                                  Aug 7, 1:11 PM
                                  • William Packer
                                    I have no position in $WMC now. Moved into $AGNC today. 19000 shares.190 $23 weekly puts @ 0.05/share cost. Good deal.
                                    Aug 6, 5:50 PM
                                    Reply (30)
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                                    • William Packer: That is just the way I see it. I don't think we have hit some kind of escape velocity.
                                      Aug 7, 10:27 AM
                                    • William Packer: In most of my client accounts, investors were short MITT and long WMC. That trade paid for them today.
                                      Aug 7, 10:29 AM
                                      • William Packer
                                        I think $MTGE and $AGNC are going to go down - not up. The market hates those stocks a lot and it doesn't matter if they post good results
                                        Aug 1, 1:09 PM
                                        Reply (55)
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                                        • Aikman: Many thanks for taking the time William, your words are very helpful. Mreit business is abstract if you don't have a financial background
                                          Aug 2, 4:17 PM
                                        • William Packer: Sure, no problem.
                                          Aug 2, 5:44 PM
                                          • William Packer
                                            Long 32,000 shares $WMC @ 13.67
                                            Aug 1, 11:13 AM
                                            Reply (2)
                                            • William Packer: The company trades at a deep discount to book value and has low interest rate risk due to the negative 0.5 yr duration.
                                              Aug 1, 11:14 AM
                                            • William Packer: Anub a strong manager and expected to continue to build value for shareholders.
                                              Aug 1, 11:15 AM
                                              • William Packer
                                                Unloaded $MTGE and $AGNC calls today, taking the value off the table. $12,200. Liquidated the MTGE position despite the strong quarter.
                                                Aug 1, 11:11 AM
                                                Reply (1)
                                                • William Packer: Now own 32,000 shares of WMC. Rest of portfolio in cash. Bonds doing very well today but MREITs fail to perform to the degree they should.
                                                  Aug 1, 11:11 AM
                                                  • William Packer
                                                    $AGNC, $MTGE I told you so. NFP weak and yields falling. AGNC & MTGE should perform well going forward.
                                                    Aug 1, 9:02 AM
                                                    Reply
                                                      • William Packer
                                                        $MTGE book value stable for 5 quarters in a row... in a $1 per share range. Yet, they pay 0.65 a quarter in dividend income. Very positive.
                                                        Jul 30, 4:28 PM
                                                        Reply (18)
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                                                        • William Packer: $PSEC has fixed rate liabilities and floating rate assets for example.
                                                          Jul 30, 7:20 PM
                                                        • William Packer: Interest rates are unlikely to rise quickly on the long end OR the short end of the curve...
                                                          Jul 30, 7:21 PM
                                                          • William Packer
                                                            bought 100 $AGNC weekly August 8 $23.50 strike contracts @ 0.06. What is the market thinking!?!?! We still have the fed and NFP! $AGNC,$MTGE
                                                            Jul 30, 12:25 PM
                                                            Reply (2)
                                                            • William Packer: People also forget that Gary Kain can flip the "ON SWITCH" on AGNC's share buyback plan at ANY TIME to defend the share price.
                                                              Jul 30, 12:41 PM
                                                            • William Packer: and take advantage of retiring shares well below book value. We have seen him do that many times in the past.
                                                              Jul 30, 12:42 PM
                                                              • William Packer
                                                                Yes bond yields went up some today but they are still below where they were on 6/30. The 10 year is still 2 basis points lower. $AGNC $MTGE
                                                                Jul 30, 10:08 AM
                                                                Reply (4)
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                                                                • William Packer: It's unlikely that the rebound in GDP during the second quarter will have any material effect on the dovishness of fed officials.
                                                                  Jul 30, 10:13 AM
                                                                • William Packer: The bond market seems to have found support around these levels, and it's more likely we will see a new low yield than a retracement to 2.70
                                                                  Jul 30, 10:14 AM
                                                                  • William Packer
                                                                    The book value of $MTGE could be as high as $25. My personal estimate is $22.87. But I am prepared to be surprised to the upside.
                                                                    Jul 30, 9:49 AM
                                                                    Reply
                                                                      • William Packer
                                                                        added another 20 contracts this morning, up to 280 $20 SEPT MTGE CALLS. $MTGE. (@0.50)
                                                                        Jul 30, 9:37 AM
                                                                        Reply
                                                                          • William Packer
                                                                            I want to clarify that I do not currently have a short position on treasury futures. I have traded there, but no current position. $MTGE
                                                                            Jul 29, 12:19 PM
                                                                            Reply (2)
                                                                            • William Packer: But I think rates are much more likely to fall than rise at this point. I think the risk that GDP comes in below estimates is more likely.
                                                                              Jul 29, 12:20 PM
                                                                            • William Packer: So I am going unhedged into the GDP number.
                                                                              Jul 29, 12:21 PM
                                                                              • William Packer
                                                                                Added to my $20 September $MTGE call position by 20 contracts. Now up to 260 contracts there. (@0.50)
                                                                                Jul 29, 10:49 AM
                                                                                Reply