• William Packer
    The rise in the 10 year treasury yield today signals now is probably the best time to get out of $AGNC at $22.50.
    3/4/14
    Reply (15)
    • William Packer: The maximum value of the $AGNC has probably been reached, the discount is narrow and has plenty of room to widen out as rates go up.
      3/4/14
    • William Packer: when rates go above 3%, the NAV of AGNC will be lower than the Q4 numbers shown. Cheaper assets to buy in the market today w/ better return
      3/4/14
    • Grand Nagus Kelly: I only have 206 shares. Is it worth selling?
      3/4/14
    • William Packer: Only you can be the judge of that Joe. Depends on percentage of portfolio, risk tolerance, strategy etc.Stock appears fully-priced.
      3/4/14
    • mikeginn: I'm continuing to hold a large for me position. Scott Kennedy here on SA sees stable 2014 dividend, not concerned w/a moderate rise in 10-yr
      3/4/14
    • William Packer: Mike, a moderate rise in the 10 year will equate to a lower dividend (hedge costs will go up) and a lower NAV, thus a lower share price.
      3/4/14
    • William Packer: In addition mike, This is pretty much a given *if* there is a moderate rise in the 10 year. In the near term, Q1 dividend should be higher
      3/4/14
    • William Packer: When the short end of the interest rate curve is lifted (Mid to late 2015 most likely) the NIM of AGNC will get crushed and so will the divy
      3/4/14
    • William Packer: The long end will lift off long before the short end does.
      3/4/14
    • William Packer: If you want to bet on higher interest rates.. you want to be in floating rate funds or CHMI (the inverse of a mortgage reit w/ yield to boot
      3/4/14
    • brubaker: Thanks for the discussion guys. I too hold a couple hundred shares of AGNC, but will keep an eye on $CHMI. Interesting that you recommend
      3/5/14
    • brubaker: a it when it has such a short public track record?
      3/5/14
    • William Packer: Probably should disclose that I am biased to CHMI because I own about 0.35% of the shares outstanding at a cost average around $18.50.
      3/5/14
    • William Packer: Brubaker, Short public record but large insider ownership. REIT payout system with the majority of their capital allocated to MSR.
      3/5/14
    • William Packer: As rates rise... MSR goes up in value, income goes up (yield enhances on less prepays), dividends go up, and ultimately the stock goes up.
      3/5/14