Seeking Alpha
  • William Packer
    Bought $TWO, $HTS, $CHMI, $NLY, $AGNC, $MITT, $MTGE, $EFC, $AI, $EARN, $CYS, $WMC. Equal amounts, except for EARN is 1/3 size.
    8/8/14
    Reply (32)
    • William Packer: I am making a bullish bet on the sector in general. I believe it will rise as rates continue to decline and non-agency prices go up.
      8/8/14
    • NLTInvestor: why didnt you just buy an etf..
      8/8/14
    • William Packer: because an ETF would charge me a management fee and honestly I don't want to pay one on $1,000,000 of assets invested in those names.
      8/8/14
    • William Packer: And I wanted a very particular set of securities in equal amounts. I might add more EARN next week.. it's just so thinly traded...
      8/8/14
    • Darren McCammon: I chose the simplicity of MORL with overweighting in AI, EFC and TWO. I consider the 0.4% tracking fee cheap in return for leverage.
      8/8/14
    • Darren McCammon: MORL and TWO are held in tax advantaged IRA while AI and EFC are held in regular accounts.
      8/8/14
    • William Packer: Going to add IVR and AMTG Monday. Both trade at a huge discount to book value and IVR has had 3 positive quarters in a row in terms of book.
      8/9/14
    • William Packer: I don't like MORL. Too illiquid, weighted a little funny.
      8/9/14
    • William Packer: I sold $WMC today. Bought IVR @ open.. AMTG too. Also bought $SLRC because they are around 88c on the dollar. Sold $EFC, sold $AI.
      8/11/14
    • William Packer: $EFC and $AI are both trading very close to tangible book values.
      8/11/14
    • jennypenny: Why did you sell $WMC?
      8/12/14
    • William Packer: Jennypenny, I believe that based on the current spreads, coupon prices for agency mbs, non-agency prices, that $WMC is trading...
      8/12/14
    • William Packer: Very close to book value
      8/12/14
    • William Packer: I think the best value combination right now is... $AGNC, $CHMI, $CYS, $EARN, $HTS, $IVR, $MTGE, $NLY, $TWO. And i like $SLRC @ 0.88 p/b.
      8/12/14
    • William Packer: I also like $AMTG
      8/12/14
    • William Packer: The names I just mentioned make up 100% of my portfolio. Which is up again today despite markets in general being down.
      8/12/14
    • William Packer: if $WMC started trading at 0.90 p/b or lower I would buy it.
      8/12/14
    • William Packer: It's all about value... the more value.. the more upside.. as long as the management team isn't garbage.
      8/12/14
    • William Packer: I sold $NLY today and bought $ACSF instead.The yield is a little lower but that will be short lived.As S. rates rise the dividend goes up.
      8/12/14
    • William Packer: I just sold everything and bought $AGNC at $23.22... I made extra money by doing the sector buys.. but at this point. I think...
      8/13/14
    • William Packer: the US economy is going into a recession in 2015... and there will be no rate hikes.. The 10 year bond is going to 1.75% by year end.
      8/13/14
    • William Packer: Housing is slowing, retail sales down... economy will contract .. non-agency prices will go down.
      8/13/14
    • William Packer: So I am changing my stance and I just am starting to see things different.
      8/13/14
    • William Packer: I have 40,000 shares $AGNC @ 23.22. I am staying away from everything else.
      8/13/14
    • William Packer: 23.216*** is exact cost average
      8/13/14
    • William Packer: non-agency is TOXIC and I don't want to be anywhere near it when thing it the fan. It's all overpriced now.
      8/13/14
    • William Packer: Priced to perfection!
      8/13/14
    • Jsalbert: Hi William, do you see a price drop following earnings today in WMC?
      11/5/14
    • William Packer: Jsalbert, No. The stock might even go up. I don't own it though, I like the discount on $AGNC and $MTGE... which use less leverage.
      11/5/14
    • William Packer: I see $WMC dropped... Umm.. I don't know what else there was to ask for. What did market participants think the NAV would be? LOL
      11/6/14
    • jennypenny: Might be institutions selling off $WMC if they rigidly follow the 90% of BV rule. Volume is high enough.
      11/6/14
    • jennypenny: Quite a few bought into $WMC last quarter.
      11/6/14