William Packer

Debt, bonds, reits, long/short equity
William Packer
Debt, bonds, REITs, long/short equity
Contributor since: 2013
23 hours ago
William Packer
Personal holdings of $MDLY increased to 100,000 shares since last update. Will deploy client capital over the next 5 business days.
23 hours ago
so when do you get a board seat?
17 hours ago
I haven't even thought about that, really. I think due to the class A having less voting rights... it would be a harder sell.
Thu, 4:28 PM
William Packer
$MDLY declares 0.20. News out. Dividend unchanged. Stock is super cheap.
Thu, 4:29 PM
I Will buy up to $7.25 per share. 705,000 $ available for purchases. Client capital. Buys will come over next 5 trading days.
Thu, 9:07 AM
William Packer
$MDLY 0.20 dividend declared sometime over next 3 business days. (Market holiday next week on Monday, just FYI)
Wed, 10:20 AM
William Packer
SOLD $PSEC and BOUGHT $MCC today. SWAP COMPLETE. was completed with PSEC trading higher than MCC.
Wed, 10:21 AM
This was the reversal of a trade yesterday where PSEC was trading much, much lower than MCC.
Tue, 6:08 PM
William Packer
PEOPLE SHOULD SELL $MCC AND BUY $PSEC. NAV is very close to each other and $PSEC outperforms. Their NAV decline is spreads at PSEC.
Tue, 7:23 PM
Psec is just going to move higher while MCC suffers near term. You can always switch back to MCC from PSEC later and pick up value.
Tue, 7:24 PM
The trade probably will only run a few days and you move back by Friday.
Tue, 12:23 PM
William Packer
I was wrong. Sorry. $PSEC is going to report 0.25 to 0.27 NII, NAV of $9.75 to $10.00 and a possible fee reduction to 1.75% from 2%
Tue, 6:01 PM
I told people to buy PSEC going into earnings.
Tue, 6:02 PM
I just said that because I thought it was going to go really low before the report and then rally.
Mon, 9:42 AM
William Packer
Updated $MCC NAV estimate of $10.45 per share for quarter ended DEC 31. Majority of decline came from spreads not credit.
Tue, 6:07 PM
You know what was sad though, it all came from credit and i though it was gonna be spreads at mcc.... but look at PSEC! It was all spreads.
Tue, 6:07 PM
And PSEC beat earnings nicely. Should be trading much higher imo.
Sun, 11:31 AM
William Packer
Providing an update of disclosure on $MDLY. Clients + supervised family accounts + personal accounts = 547,000 shares. $705,000 available
Sun, 11:33 AM
... available to invest. If the dividend is raised next week, I plan to deploy the remaining capital over the next 5 business days.
Sun, 11:34 AM
0.20 dividend (stable) = buys up to $7.25, $0.22 will buy up to $8, $0.25 will buy up to $9.50.Putting capital to work at ultra cheap prices
Feb 6, 11:27 PM
William Packer
$MCC overdue for a pop on the upside. Stock trades too cheaply. NAV is around $10.50 at dec. 31, 2015. MCC $7.50 price target near term.
Sun, 12:30 AM
At the very least it's an easy buy at $6.60 and sell 0.40 higher post earnings report at $7
Sun, 12:31 AM
Trading opportunity for you guys...... We all saw what happened to PNNT when they reported.... Was a pop and they are oil exposed.
Feb 5, 2:06 PM
William Packer
Providing update to my FEB, 2015 instablog on $MTGE. See replies to this post. http://seekingalpha.com/p/2j31z
Feb 5, 1:16 PM
Discounts are about as wide as they are going to get for the mREIT space. I would be shocked to see further widening of that discount in 16'
Feb 5, 5:05 PM
Hi Wiliam! Mtge is already up 10% of its lows... I am already in and out....
Feb 5, 12:50 PM
William Packer
Very close to dividend declaration date on $MDLY. I plan on buying with every available dollar if they raise it.
Feb 6, 1:28 PM
Thanks, sometimes I wish I was lying. It's been a crazy ride so far with the stock price swings, MCC fee cut questioning dividend payout and
Feb 6, 1:28 PM
then all the new AUM growth that came through and now we are wondering about how much (if any) they will RAISE the dividend.
Feb 3, 11:00 AM
William Packer
$MDLY likely to raise QTRly dividend to 0.22. Press release coming within a matter of days. Future increases possible later in year.
Jan 26, 6:14 PM
William Packer
$BLK buys 6.4% stake in $MDLY. http://tinyurl.com/heeu8hh
Jan 28, 12:59 AM
Still, even at 48% yield, MDLY is one of the highest yielding c-corps and would be growing it's dividend at a more rapid pace than peers.
Jan 28, 1:00 AM
4.8% yield. ** correction, typo.
Jan 25, 9:04 AM
William Packer
$MDLY raises over $1B of capital in new AUM. Dividend increase coming... http://bit.ly/1ORZjzN
Jan 26, 2:51 PM
Nice move today. Any news?
Jan 26, 4:16 PM
It's up for the same news I just posted above. Dividend could easily get bumped up this year. The stock has a long ways left to climb.
Jan 15, 2:56 PM
William Packer
$MCC makes recovery on the day. I purchased 100,000 (even) shares for client accounts today after raising capital to fund purchases. $MDLY
Jan 17, 3:30 PM
NAV should stabilize when the credit markets stabilize... But actual loan performance may not be all that bad.
Jan 19, 10:17 AM
I'm afraid 2016 will NOT be a good year for MCC investors.
Jan 12, 2:43 PM
William Packer
Total $MDLY purchases yesterday 2,000 shares. Today 5,000 more. Total holdings under supervision of 507,000. $MCC. Bought some MCC too.
Jan 13, 8:39 PM
I am happy to be buying MDLY and MCC stock really cheap though. I wouldn't touch anything that owns CLOs...
Jan 14, 6:28 PM
Yeah, I'm avoiding CLOs as well. If MDLY drops into the mid-$3 range, that is where I hope to make a sizable purchase.
Jan 12, 10:12 AM
William Packer
Changing my personal price target on $FSAM to $3.50 from $2. Represents an estimated 8% forward yield after likely deal to reduce fees.
Jan 12, 3:09 AM
William Packer
$FSAM likely just days away from announcing a deal to reduce managment fees on FSC to 1.5%, incentive fee to 15%, netting mechanism. $FSC
Jan 12, 9:57 AM
It makes sense to address these issues sooner than later. FSAM has been in close talks with many of their larger shareholders for some time
Jan 12, 9:59 AM
A deal, in my opinion, seems likely to wrap up this month.
Jan 11, 8:55 PM
William Packer
$NSAM may sell company. stock pops on the news.How much longer before someone tries to scoop up $MDLY,which offers more value.Time will tell
Jan 12, 2:31 AM
Interesting that CS analyst has 2016 updated dividend projection at $1.00 and $1.20 for 2017 yet only a $6 price target for the stock.
Jan 12, 6:56 PM
CS analyst is like any other and does not want to look foolish giving out a $9 price target on a stock trading at $4.50
Jan 7, 4:19 PM
William Packer
Personal holdings of $MDLY increased to 88,000. Total shares under supervision is 500,000 on the dot. Also bought $MCC for client accounts
Jan 8, 10:48 PM
I want them to work on increasing AUM and that translating into higher EPS and a higher dividend over time.
Jan 8, 10:50 PM
If they bought the stock back and didn't also buyback the membership units on a 1 for 1 basis.. that would be different.
Jan 4, 2:46 PM
William Packer
$MDLY has made significant progress on its path to launch new products. Has seen strong interest and will begin ramping those initiatives.
Jan 4, 3:02 PM
Previously, co employees were unable to focus on their core business due to RCS capital/Apollo drama
Jan 4, 3:03 PM
This lead to poor fund raising numbers in Q4 2015 at Sierra. This will change in 2016 beginning with January.
Jan 4, 2:26 PM
William Packer
CS analyst wrong on $MDLY constantly from IPO date forward. Will be wrong again. I think $MDLY is a triple over the next two years or more
12/18/15
William Packer
$MCC breaks $8 resistance. Continues on path which may result in premium to NAV valuation in the future. Makes sense to me given changes.
Dividends should rise over time as funds are reinvested at higher yields, earnings will rise for many BDCs
Continued and increased share repurchase program at MCC shows deep support and commitment to their managed fund shareholders.
12/14/15
William Packer
News today: I just received approval from $MDLY to purchase over 20% of the class A shares in aggregate.
12/14/15
Why isn't MDLY buying back shares? What about insiders? They aren't buying either. What do you make of that?
Cash on balance sheet can be more accretive if used to launch more products in 2016 than buybacks still. Insiders own around 80% already.
12/9/15
William Packer
$MDLY might get an offer to merge with $ARES In a deal valued at $250MM. Rumor. Not sure if it's true. Interesting thought.
Any number of proposals may come forward given where MDLY is trading. Eps run rate should be around $1.11 for 2016 for MDLY given MCC cuts.
I just think it's an interesting idea. Not betting on anything happening.
12/7/15
William Packer
By reducing fees the way they did and aligning interests in $MCC and $MDLY, $MCC has real chance to regain a premium to NAV valuation.
I think that MDLY did the right thing when it lowered fees for MCC..it shows real support for MCC + becoming a best of breed BDC manager
12/7/15
Thanks for your reply William, I appreciate your info.
12/7/15
William Packer
Net Bought 30,800 more shares of $MDLY across all client accounts. Net added to our position.about 442,000 shares under supervision now.
MDLY very close to raising even more capital since it held conversations with interested parties.
New capital + $500MM will offset MCC fee cuts. 0.20 could be maintained. Worst 0.15.
12/7/15
William Packer
$MDLY update: Convinced the majority of clients to not sell this morning after much discussion. Instead, we will slowly begin adding.
Do you like seeing ppl lose money?
To the contrary, we believe we will be making money for these clients over time.
12/5/15
William Packer
$MDLY. Update on clients: There will be some selling pressure next week as I sell clients in MDLY. I am hopeful for MDLYs future and...
But hey, maybe it will create a bottom in the stock ! LoL. $4.85 bottom?
new trading range $4.85 to $6 I mean I am just speculating here on the true ranges but maybe this selling pressure from clients will mark it
12/2/15
William Packer
Other analysts like FBR are wrong on $FSAM.$7 price target is completely bogus.My price target is has been cut to $2.00 per share from $2.50
Reasons include lower management fee revenue from FSC and higher operating costs over the next 12 months due to the restructuring of FSC.
FSAM will bare some or all of the costs associated with FSCs restructuring.
11/28/15
William Packer
Final $MCC Projections: $0.30 to 0.32 NII, $10.90 to $11.10 NAV. NII of $0.30 to 0.32.
New MCC presentation available from MCC website.
11/28/15
I'll stick with my MDLY. The 13% distribution looks safer than MCC. It is nice to see MCC covering dividend
11/18/15
William Packer
My clients have a huge position now in $FSC. Much of the buying was done in the $5s as I stated here before. So cost average isn't bad.
More important than the level of the fees is the structure of the fees. As it stands now, unprofitable growth rewards FSAM and punishes FSC.
Watermark on incentive would fix that...