Seeking Alpha

William Rudder

 
View as an RSS Feed
View William Rudder's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Who Wins After The Snapback Rally? [View article]
    I win.
    Oct 17 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Has To Take Bendgate Seriously [View article]
    Possible solutions:
    1. Cargo pockets
    2. Otterbox
    3. Common sense and/or personal responsibility
    Sep 26 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Has To Take Bendgate Seriously [View article]
    Sitting on a phone with enough force to bend it can't be comfortable.
    Sep 26 10:56 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Trap That Is Philip Morris International [View article]
    Nat -- thanks for the additional point on the tax benefits of the repurchase strategy.

    KC -- I don't see the situation becoming bad for them in the next few years. I would never flatly state you are wrong, but having spent several years living and working abroad, I can tell you that the attitudes towards tobacco are quite varied from country to country and different from what you experience in the US. Cultures vary -- just a simple fact. Trying to use what has happened in the US as a model for the rest of the planet simply does not take those differences into account. Additionally, I find it hard to envision the bell curve and rapid fall you describe when I consider two facts. First, it is much easier to start smoking than to quit. Smokers in low income countries do not have the same access to cessation programs and healthcare focused on improving longevity. Second, the world population continues to grow.

    I will commend you for submitting the article, but the global smoking market is really more complicated than analyzing US smoking history and cut/paste around the world.
    Sep 20 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Trap That Is Philip Morris International [View article]
    Okay... So you have outstanding shares on which you are paying out ~4.7% as a dividend. You can borrow at ~3.5% to repurchase those shares and save over 1% in the short term. The repurchase doesn't really increase earnings overall, but it does increase EPS as the share count decreases. You may eventually have to refinance the debt at presumably higher rates than today.

    Who wins in this scenario? So far, I have. And the second the tables turn I will cash out, pay my taxes, and look for the next opportunity. The bottom line is that tobacco companies sell a product that is both legal and addicting.
    Sep 19 05:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is A Luxury Brand And That Is The Problem [View article]
    I think the argument that the watch costs $349 plus the cost of a phone is just a little over the top. Nobody is going to buy an iPhone just to enable use of the watch. They will buy the watch as a supplement to the iPhone.
    Sep 10 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric Just Hit A Home Run [View article]
    I'm content with the valuation GE received. Not doing cartwheels, but generally okay with it. We knew the value was in the brand.
    Sep 8 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maybe You Shouldn't Pay Off Your Mortgage [View article]
    I'm pretty sure TX has fairly high property taxes compared to other states...
    Sep 2 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Battle For Family Dollar Exposes Dollar Stores' Desperate Struggle For Survival [View article]
    I agree with the argument that cash flow must be properly managed in order to structure the debt required to finance a deal like this. I get a little lost in the argument over TTM earnings and FCF numbers. Some are annual and others are quarterly, and all of them vary by quarter. And if I'd never purchased anything costing more than my own TTM earnings, maybe it would make more sense. At least the competitors listed here make more sense than the article claiming Amazon would destroy the dollar store sector.

    Long DLTR since 1/2013. Trailing stop in place.
    Aug 26 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream Retains Neutral Thesis As Performance Stays Poor In Second Quarter [View article]
    I also held for several years, but sold the day they made the REIT announcement. I didn't get the top, but around $12.65 and figured I could take a two year dividend in one day and then decide if I wanted to get back in. The jury is still out.
    Aug 25 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream Retains Neutral Thesis As Performance Stays Poor In Second Quarter [View article]
    I'm just trying to make sure I get this right. The stock is currently at $11.35 but has a $7.25 price target on it (36% overvalued) and this is neutral.
    Aug 25 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria Increases Quarterly Dividend by 8.3% to $0.52 per Common Share [View article]
    BAM!
    Aug 21 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE's Continued Divestitures Provide Investor Upside [View article]
    The appliance division is estimated to be worth roughly $2 billion, or 5.25x last year's earnings. GE additionally spent somewhere in the neighborhood of $1 billion to modernize and grow the division in the last couple years. Although I understand the decision for the sale, I don't really call that a premium.
    Aug 20 05:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    Maybe those are non-GAAP numbers?
    Aug 19 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    Recommending a straight short here is pretty ballsy. Executing it would be even more so. I watch this stock pretty regularly, but I am not in this pool.
    Aug 19 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
340 Comments
315 Likes