William Rudder

Value analysis, dividend growth, special situations, prudent risk
William Rudder
Value analysis, Dividend Growth, special situations, prudent risk
Contributor since: 2012
Sold in December for tax purposes, but I will be back in this pool very shortly.
I've never registered a vehicle under Danish law, which may be why I don't quite follow the entire argument.
If someone purchases a car today, they will avoid a tax which will progressively increase over the next few years, ultimately reaching 100% of the car's purchase price. If they delay the purchase, they will pay a higher tax than they do today. This makes sense.
What I need to understand is how the registration tax can be considered part of the car's value that will depreciate. Is this tax only levied against the first owner and typically considered part of a car's total cost? Or does a subsequent buyer also have to pay a registration tax based on some percentage of the value of the car? Basically, the cost of the car will remain the same or similar, and it is only the tax which will increase. In the Danish market, is that portion of the car price passed along and depreciated as we think about it, or is it just part of buying a new car?
I may be a bit cynical, but I tend to believe there is no such thing as a free Model S.
Buy the rumor, sell the news? I'm with you on the change in valuation requiring a strategy re-look. I'm thinking Floyd made a good move with the covered calls.
No situation is permanent.
You can't get wrapped up in trying to always make the 100% absolute best timing decision. You'll run out of both coffee and Prilosec. Just make money...
At one point there was a lot of discussion about how Altria was "artificially" increasing EPS by borrowing money to buy back shares. The idea made sense -- borrow money at ~2% to retire shares that were paying a ~5% dividend. Smoke and mirrors? Whatever. I'll just take my artificially inflated dividend checks and say thank you.
Long MO.
If the market as a whole is at/near a 52-week low, why wouldn't BAC be in the same boat? Long BAC.
No position, but I'm following the story. After the Chinese drywall problems from a few years ago, it's not much of a stretch to imagine Chinese suppliers cutting corners (again) to maximize profits and eventually getting caught. The issue is going to be proving LL management knew their suppliers were crooked. I just don't have enough information either way to make a bet on this one. 60 Minutes might want us to believe they provide relevant news, but they are part of an advertising company, and have a vested interest in not being proven wrong -- so consider the source. However, if LL had considered THEIR source in the first place, the stock could still be above $60.
Stock moves sideways, pays an okay dividend, and add a small return from ongoing covered calls. Basically kept this stock in line with the market. I had higher hopes, but that happens sometimes.
Thanks, LB. I think you'll find plenty of us out here who look at technical indicators and maybe consider them before making moves, but really are fundamental investors. And as for some of the DGI theory discussed above, I don't think anyone is actually happy when they incur a paper loss. But when you have a long(er) time horizon it takes some of the sting out knowing you expected temporary downturns and built them into your plan.
Consistency is the key.
Wow, this is terrible. So this news has caused the stock to plummet all the way to where it was seven trading days ago? Clearly the end for Apple.
I appreciate your willingness to go against the grain with your title and argument on this one. But your comments seem to infer that trading is somehow a bad thing. One can purchase a stock with a long-term view and yet change their mind when events occur and the market changes. Being focused on consistently making good choices with current data is probably more important than trying to time tops and bottoms or worry about short-term vs. long-term gains. Just make money.
If INTC is this far ahead of AMD on the move from 14nm to 10nm, how much will the gap widen on the next move?
That would make some sense, thanks...
I'm not clear on why the charts use different discount rates. You do state that you use 9-11% depending on the risk, but some show 8-10% while others are 10-12%. Is this based on the risk of the individual stock or on the market? If it's a SWAG that's not a problem, I'm just trying to figure it out. Also, I am unclear why the chart for KO provides different data compared to the others. Thanks...
I disagree that download prices are high because retailers demand publishers keep them equal to physical copy prices. A publisher will charge the maximum possible price for the game regardless of how it is distributed. They don't sacrifice margin just because some consumers prefer to download games.
Next, I do agree that downloaded content will become more of a factor in the future. However, most authors simply write off the fact that GME has a management team that is well aware of that fact. Assuming they will simply repeat the mistakes of Blockbuster by failing to see the threat and refusing to adapt their business model is probably not accurate.
Worst problem ever.
Once again, a heartfelt thank you goes out to the vocal BAC bears who enabled me to build my current position at what I consider bargain prices. I do not love the company and will sell the minute that suits my purposes better than holding. But you didn't have to be a genius to figure out that BAC would be around longer than Eric Holder.
I get it, and I don't disagree. The apples humor was probably lost in the 10-key translation.
If I were loaning money to these two companies, those charts are probably fairly representative of what I would expect the analysis to show. I might not have connected the dots to the concept of "too big to fail," so I find that to be an interesting angle.
However, I want to find some kind of reference about comparing apples to... You get the idea.
Bottom line -- the dividend had nowhere to go but up and Eric Holder had to find another lawsuit ATM eventually.
I'm not in love with this company and will sell the moment it suits my purposes. However, "BAC is dead money" has been the rallying cry of a small but vocal minority for quite some time. I appreciate their efforts to keep the price low so I could build my current position.
You people are the Diet Coke of evil. Just one calorie, not evil enough.
Recommend submitting a revision to spell Pacquiao's name correctly. Then the real question becomes how many of these packages were actually sold? Yes, the cable companies charged a premium for all bars or restaurants that showed it. Yes, management will do a cost/benefit analysis to determine if they want to show it. If it was sufficiently advertised, it likely increased traffic on that day. The packages were not cheap, but open bar packages never are.
My local sports bar chose to show it with no cover charge, and they had about 4x normal sales that night -- a clear win for the owner. However, one big night doesn't define an entire quarter. It is a positive event, but I'm a little more interested in future expansion efforts and the stock buyback plan. So thanks for discussing the loan rates and lawsuit resolution.
Long RICK for several years and holding.
Thanks. It makes sense but just wanted to know where to start looking for the info...
The discussion about restructuring portfolio debt at 9-13% down to 5-6%... Was that in the conference call?
One year returns for the three stocks: PNC 14.10%, WFC 13.44%, BAC 13.43%.
WFC and PNC do pay better dividends at this time -- not in question. But in my opinion the jury is still out concerning how the market will react 2-5 years from now as the story evolves. In the meantime, I don't mind having multiple banks in the portfolio.
When the email from Investor Relations uses the word "elude" like that in the very first sentence, I immediately question more than just their vocabulary.
Recommended edit in paragraph five: change twelve to four if you want to use quarters, or keep twelve if you change quarters to months.
Otherwise, I like the distinction of how adding reported EPS numbers uses old share counts and does not adjust for recent buyback efforts.
Samsung makes a good phone. Apple makes a good phone.
One of these companies can write a check larger than the other's market cap. Which competitor do you really want in your portfolio?
Best. Problem. Ever.
I get both sides of this discussion -- I really do. But I'll leave figuring this out to the guys who created the problem, and I'm not going to think I can solve it better than they can. Long AAPL.
All I can say is run your own numbers on earnings estimates while accounting for best guess legal fees and the associated bad publicity. I see a potential long-term opportunity here (especially given the options premiums referenced above), but given the way the DOJ went after BAC, I'm not in a hurry and not willing to take a large position yet. There is plenty more to come in this story...