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William Trent, CFA  

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  • The Week Ahead: Earnings Galore [View article]
    Yep. Hopefully the one extra voice added to the discussion. If not, I guess worst case is my incremental hot air was insignificant in the scheme of things.
    Aug 1, 2007. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget the iPhone! Apple Investors Should Be Focused On Spectacular iPod Growth [View article]
    No doubt. But I don’t think anybody expected the iPhone to possibly cannibalize Mac sales, whereas the iPod was considered more at risk. That was really more my point.
    Jul 27, 2007. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget the iPhone! Apple Investors Should Be Focused On Spectacular iPod Growth [View article]
    That's the thing with Apple. When every other company is saying this division stank but this one is doing ok, Apple is saying this division is on fire, and this other division is making the first one look like a refrigerator.

    Amazing.
    Jul 26, 2007. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wake Up and Smell the Coffee: Starbucks Still Doesn't Get It [View article]
    It is unbelievable how much attention has been paid to a relatively small increase in the price of one product, given how much increase there has been in so many others. The fact that it is receiving this attention is simply testimony to the hold Starbucks has on the collective imagination.
    Jul 26, 2007. 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Week Ahead: Earnings Galore [View article]
    In part the stocks I am watching are based on whether they are on my watch list or have discussed them in the past. As you say, Apple is discussed to death and the incremental value of my own contribution would probably be minimal. While some will surely disagree, I feel I can add more value to the discussion of the others listed.
    Jul 23, 2007. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Semi Equipment Orders Declining At a Faster Rate [View article]
    I sync it up the same way I sync up positive comments from any other industry insiders - considering their angle. It is possible that KLAC and NVLS will buck the industry trend, or that for the first time in history there will be no down part of the cycle- just perpetual supply demand balance because for the first time the industry gets it right.

    The thing is, management at these companies can see the orders coming in, but they typically can't anticipate when those orders are likely to be canceled or pushed out. Often when things look best is when they are about to turn.
    Jul 22, 2007. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Miss: A Wakeup Call For Investors [View article]
    That's ok. I miss a lot of buying opportunities.
    Jul 20, 2007. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel and STMicroelectronics: The Art of the Deal [View article]
    Intel/Micron is NAND flash, this one is Intel's NOR business.
    Jul 18, 2007. 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis of Infosys' Cash Flow Growth [View article]
    Although a 100% ROIC is nothing to sneeze at, I'd argue that ROIC is relatively meaningless for a company built on human capital rather than fixed capital. The profit margins are probably a more useful metric for INFY.

    As to what investors are willing to pay for the cash flows, it will depend on how much of the growth they can retain as they try to grow off an ever-higher base.
    Jul 18, 2007. 06:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nutrisystems, Inc.: Covered Call Opportunity [View article]
    Nice work. NutriSystem is on my Small Cap Watch List and I have been watching it but have not bought yet either.

    For those of us who don't yet own it, do you think writing puts would be a reasonable way to capture a volatility premium and possibly lower entry point? Or do you think the downside risk is too much now for such a play?
    Jul 16, 2007. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infosys' Weak Outlook: Appreciating Rupee, Rising Wages To Blame [View article]
    True - it is hard to find good programmers. But based on my experience, the quality programmer shortage is a global phenomenon. It is easy to find bodies anywhere, but the really good programmers have all started their own businesses, wherever they happen to live.
    Jul 14, 2007. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infosys' Weak Outlook: Appreciating Rupee, Rising Wages To Blame [View article]
    Thanks, Frank.

    US workers may be getting nominally more expensive, but they are not getting comparably more expensive. As a percentage of US wages, Indian wages are rising. Mathematically, the advantage erodes.

    You ask where else one can find the combination of growth, margin and multiple, and my answer is that you will no longer be able to find it in the outsourcers. Margins will be coming under pressure, and I doubt Infosys and the rest can continue to add 30% to their expanding employee base (which is what it takes for a consulting firm to grow). So what you are left with are 35x trailing multiples.
    Jul 11, 2007. 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infosys' Weak Outlook: Appreciating Rupee, Rising Wages To Blame [View article]
    I provided the link for attrition figures.

    As for the wage/currency differential, let's say that at time x Indian programmers cost 10% what US programmers cost. Assuming 10% annual relative wage gains and 10% annual relative currency gains (20% total narrowing) it would take less than 13 years for the gap to disappear.

    But the gap doesn't have to be even for the demand to slow significantly. Outsourcing may only be attractive when there is a certain gap - say, at least 50% - to make up for the issues related to management, language and other factors. In that case, the relative parity would be reached four years earlier.

    The further question is how long investors will pay 35x trailing earnings if the growth continues to slow.

    I have been positive on the Indian outsourcing names for more than three years but have always said that the trend would end when it was too hard to grow the employee base as fast as it did the previous year. That has now happened.
    Jul 11, 2007. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CIO Tech Spending Poll: Growth Nothing To Write Home About [View article]
    Corporations have been loaded with cash for several years now, but the tech spending growth keeps slowing. The survey may be questionable, but it <em>has</em&g... generally followed the trend in the spend.
    Jul 5, 2007. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1Q07 GDP Data Shows Current Rally Rooted in Optimism, Not Profits [View article]
    Any favorites you can tip me on?
    Jun 29, 2007. 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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