According to the American Trucking Associations:

The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 0.3 percent in July, marking the first month-to-month drop since April. The seasonally adjusted tonnage index equaled 116.2 (2000 = 100) in July, while the not seasonally adjusted index fell 0.1 percent to 119.7.

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Machinery

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Last month I said we have yet to see the spike down in capacity utilization that has accompanied every recent recession.

It remains early, but the latest data is starting to look more recession-like.

The latest Fortune Magazine has an article titled: Can this man save the grid?

According to the Edison Electric Institute, utilities over the next 20 years will spend hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure improvements, including computers, sensors, and networking systems….

Hansen Natural (HANS), which makes Monster energy drink, reported lower-than-expected quarterly results as cost increases drove down profitability, sending its shares down 13 percent after hours.

The company posted a first-quarter net income of $28.8 million, or 29 cents a share, compared with $20.2 million, or 21 cents a share, a year earlier. Analysts expected the company to earn 35 cents a share. Hansen lost sales as customers made early purchases in the fourth quarter to beat price increases.

I have not written in some time about a theme that I think is an important one. Skeptics could probably argue that the reason I haven’t written about it was that the recent facts have contradicted my belief, though the fact is just that I haven’t gotten around to it. So, to put the cards back on the table, it is time to talk about valuation cycles.

Many people can tell you that the average market P/E over the long term is something like 15 times. Of course, “average” doesn’t imply that the P/E is always 15. About half the time it is higher, and about half the time it is lower. The trick is figuring out in advance which half is which.

Business software maker MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) said Thursday its first-quarter profit declined, as increasing operating expenses overshadowed growth in product license revenue and support. Investors appeared to be surprised by the news, taking the shares down more than 16% Friday.

They shouldn’t have been. I warned three months ago that MicroStrategy looked cheap for a reason:

Allied Waste Industries, Inc. (AW), the nation’s second largest waste services company, today reported financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2008. For the quarter, income from continuing operations was $72.6 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, inclusive of net charges of $0.03 per share, primarily associated with an asset impairment charge for an expanded closure plan at a Midwest landfill.

Four short weeks ago I said Allied looks much cheaper than its peers, trading at 1.15 times book value compared with 2.9 times for Waste Management and 4.2 times for Republic. Allied stock has challenged the $14 mark several times over the last five years. I believe it is due for another run at that level; that would require nothing more than meeting estimates and a modest increase in the price/book ratio to about 1.3 times. A free cash flow yield of 7% (the average of its peers) would also support a $14.50 share price.

RadioShack’s (RSH) first-quarter net income fell 8.7%, hurt by increased promotions and lower sales of Sprint Nextel (S - Annual Report) wireless services. Shares are down more than 13% today on the news, wiping out the gains driven by last week’s rumor of an acquisition by Dell ( DELL).

Somehow I missed this from last week. Hat tip to Todd Sullivan’s - ValuePlays:

Apparently on Monday there was heavy call buying in RadioShack (RSH) - ironically a day I was writing puts on the name. Rumor is that Dell (DELL) is kicking the tires. It would be an easy way to get into retail in a bigger way.

MEMC Electronic (WFR) reported first quarter net sales of $501.4 million versus fourth quarter 2007 net sales of $535.9 million and first quarter 2007 net sales of $440.4 million. Non-GAAP diluted EPS, excluding warrants, was $0.84 per share, compared to the consensus analyst estimate of $0.85.

As previously disclosed, the impact associated with the accelerated chemical deposit buildups at the company’s Pasadena, Texas polysilicon manufacturing facility was the primary factor contributing to the sequential reduction in volumes, revenue and gross margin.

The spread between the return on 10-year Treasuries and Baa-rated corporate bonds was 336 basis points last week. In historical terms, that is very high. In fact, the only times in the last 50 years that it was higher were the trough of the tech wreck and the 1982 recession/stagflation busting cycle.

Printer manufacturer Lexmark International (LXK) said first-quarter quarter profit rose, beating expectations, helped by a 42 percent drop in inkjet printer sales.

You read that right. Since printer makers typically lose money on printers (hoping to make up for it in future sales of ink or toner) the fewer printers they sell in a given quarter, the more money they make.

Leather goods maker Coach, Inc. (COH) announced an increase of 19% in earnings per diluted share to $0.46 for its third fiscal quarter ended March 29, 2008, up from $0.39 per diluted share a year ago. The results were slightly ahead of expectations on both the top and bottom lines.

At first glance, my only significant concern with the report is a faster rise in inventories than in sales. This could indicate sales running below expectations, the potential for future inventory clearance at reduced margins, or a number of other potential operational issues.

In December, I said from a “full-cycle perspective, the five-year average free cash flow for YRC Worldwide (YRCW) is $152 million, and the current yield based on that figure is 6.6% - twice the Treasury yield.

Twice the Treasury yield would normally justify the investment, particularly for investors who are either more optimistic or more risk-tolerant than I am. But given that Landstar (LSTR) is yielding even more and has less risk (in my opinion) over the full cycle it isn’t enough to make me switch.”

Earnings at toymaker Hasbro (HAS) rose 14 percent in the first quarter on growth in brands such as Transformers and Littlest Pet Shop. The results beat expectations and drove its shares up almost 10 percent in morning trading.

Hasbro had recently shown up on my radar screen, and has several things going for it:

Just three months ago I said it looked like Patterson-UTI (PTEN) was poised to profit from an eventual rise in oil prices. I liked the fact that its free cash flow yield was much higher than those of its peers Helmerich & Payne (HP) and Grey Wolf (GW). I also said the momentum is clearly with HP, and I wouldn’t blame anyone for wanting to let that winner ride.

Since that time, all three stocks have posted solid gains, and the ranking has largely met my expectations: 57.6% gains for Helmerich and Patterson, and a “mere” 43.7% for Grey Wolf. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has risen just 4.3%.

Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) reported revenue in the 2008 first quarter increased approximately 6 percent to $609 million compared to $577 million for the 2007 first quarter. Net income for the thirteen-week period ended March 29, 2008 was $23.7 million, or $0.45 per diluted share, compared to net income of $21.6 million, or $0.38 per diluted share, for the thirteen-week period ended March 31, 2007.

The midpoint of the $0.51 to $0.57 guidance range for the second quarter was ahead of the $0.53 consensus.