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William Trent

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  • Extreme Bearishness a Definite Bullish Sign [View article]
    I'm not sure I would say either. But when bearish sentiment exceeds bullish sentiment the average return is fairly consistently in the 4% range over the following 3 months. There doesn't seem to be a significant advantage to finding the "end" as opposed to identifying the overall bearishness.
    Aug 21 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What the Big Boys of American Industry Are Saying [View article]
    Glad you find it useful.
    Aug 20 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continued Pricing Power in Store For Data Storage? [View article]
    True. A full analysis would want to consider not only those points but also look at past market action, since investors may anticipate an improvement or deterioration. "at least through the next two quarters" could already be incorporated into the market price, whereas a subsequent decline may or may not.
    Aug 16 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Applied Materials Finally Stops Calling the Bottom [View article]
    What about them? Solar will not result in sales for a couple of years, and not having debt has no bearing on whether a company receives orders either.
    Aug 15 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still Time to Pull the Switch On Telecom Equipment? [View article]
    The graph is the 12-month change in PPI for switchgear from the BLS. I don't think the bubble affected the equipment prices so much as the stock prices.
    Aug 15 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smartphone Intelligence Report: Research in Motion, Palm and Apple [View article]
    On the order of magnitude I am talking about sell-through vs. sell-in becomes relatively insignificant. For example, you could take out PALM's total sales from RIMM's numbers to reflect channel build and RIMM would still be much larger. For Apple to reach RIMM's scale on either a sell-through or a sell-in basis would be fairly impressive.
    Aug 13 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smartphone Intelligence Report: Research in Motion, Palm and Apple [View article]
    It wouldn't be the first time Apple opened up a product category to people who were not considering it previously.
    Aug 12 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Hoping For a U.S. Concrete, Inc. Buyout [View article]
    So... did you find the earnings as interesting as you were predicting?
    Aug 9 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Hoping For a U.S. Concrete, Inc. Buyout [View article]
    Thanks.
    Aug 8 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Hoping For a U.S. Concrete, Inc. Buyout [View article]
    Rob, Thanks for the clarifications. You clearly know the industry well. The only question I would have is, given that RMIX's acquisitions are much smaller could the lack of synergy (and thus lower multiple) stem from scale issues?
    Aug 8 07:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks' Earnings Reaffirms Solid Long-Term Prospects [View article]
    Good enough. For me I like the fact that they are self-funding the growth, which most of the 20%+ growers are not. I am willing to pay a bit more for that.
    Aug 4 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks' Earnings Reaffirms Solid Long-Term Prospects [View article]
    Why would 25% cut it for you but not the 22% they guided to?
    Aug 3 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks' Earnings Reaffirms Solid Long-Term Prospects [View article]
    Sure. Because now it's $5.09 nobody will drink it anymore. Overall retail sales are up less than 4% year/year, let alone same store numbers. When Starbucks starts doing worse than average I'll listen to that argument.

    As far as I can tell, this management team got it where it is and the only thing changing from one month to the next is the share price. Sometimes it's too high, other times it isn't.
    Aug 2 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cognizant's Growth Begins To Tail Off [View article]
    Thanks for the correction on the consensus number, but if the consensus includes it they beat by less not more...

    Nothing is wrong with growing faster than expected while keeping costs in check. So why didn't the stock rise on the news? I argue that it is because the street is concerned that growth is leveling off. Alternate explanations are, however, welcome.

    My EPS "analysis" is simply an extrapolation, not an analysis. It is back-of-envelope stuff. But it does include expected utilization improvements. The thing is, utilization also has a limit and it is something less than 100%. So utilization gains can only continue for a brief time and then it is all up to headcount.

    I didn't say there was any evidence, so don't put words in my mouth by including it in quotes. I also didn't even say that I think headcount growth will flatten - I said "many will view this as the signal." My analysis examines the thesis of whether this is the signal and investigates what may happen to the stock if it is.

    Feel free to provide your own thesis and analysis thereof, but please try to understand mine before misattributing it.
    Aug 2 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Week Ahead: Earnings Galore [View article]
    Not many stocks rising last week... Yesterday's end of day rally was a wild one, but the volume came in selling at the close.
    Aug 2 07:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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