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Wilson Wang  

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  • Bellatrix Exploration Trades At Significant Discount To NAV [View article]
    Well, Orange just bought more and so did the insiders.

    I'll help you put into perspective the liquidity of the situation.

    The time it takes my fund to build a position in this is more than 2 weeks. I can't possibly imagine some hot shot hedge fund trying to dump more than a 2 million + position. It would take weeks given that the liquidity dries up the moment orders are being placed.

    So whose on the other side? I don't know and I don't care. But whoever it is selling this to us, I applaud them and wish they did it in larger chunks.
    Apr 18, 2015. 11:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bellatrix Exploration Trades At Significant Discount To NAV [View article]
    Great analysis Derrek!
    Apr 18, 2015. 04:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Essex Rental: Technical Default Masks Massive Value; Triple-Digit Returns Possible [View article]
    Enterprise Value/EBITDA
    Mar 24, 2015. 03:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall - The Company Everyone Loves To Hate [View article]
    Adib,

    Please note the pro-forma section, that's where I derive my FCF estimates along with the assumptions I used. I calculated roughly 281 fcf for 2015. Thanks.
    Mar 20, 2015. 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall - The Company Everyone Loves To Hate [View article]
    My inputs on how I got to the FCF number I did are in the pro-forma section. Please feel free to critique that before accusing. Thanks and I appreciate your time in responding.

    Also, if you like, I can email you my excel file so you can play around with the numbers. If you think some of the estimates aren't correct, I encourage productive feedbacks with regards to how I can improve my estimates.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall - The Company Everyone Loves To Hate [View article]
    I don't know where you get the idea that I'm trying to write a pump and dumb.

    Combined Redbox and Coinstar revenue is 2.2 billion which is in line with that they are anticipating. I suggest you look over my model and give me suggestions versus saying I'm writing a pump and dump.

    Anyone can try and make reasonable estimations on rev by using the two important metrics which are total rental volume and rev per rental. Make estimations on those, and you can arrive at the rev number. Coinstar is similar in that there are two important metrics, transaction size and transaction volume.

    Perhaps, you should read the article in its entirety before blatantly commenting and accusing me of a pump and dump article.
    Mar 19, 2015. 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Essex Rental: Technical Default Masks Massive Value; Triple-Digit Returns Possible [View article]
    What a find! I saw another write up on VIC, and am trying to understand the "possible" risks associated with this investment.

    It just seems so asymmetric, and while it is "obviously" volatile and to academics who preach volatility is risk. I don't think there's a more attractive risk-to-reward out there.

    How are you sizing this accordingly given its small market cap and limited trading volume?
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall - The Company Everyone Loves To Hate [View article]
    You still don't get why share buybacks make more sense here.

    As an owner of the business via equities, you have ownership stakes in the company. If you owned 1.86 million shares, your current proportional shares are approximately 10%.

    If the company buys back shares at current prices exhausting the FCF estimates I stated above. At the end of 2015, your proportional ownership interest will now be 12.67% without actually buying a single additional share. Because your proportional interest is greater, your proportional interest in its free cash flow generated in 2016 will be increased by 26.7%.

    If the company continues buybacks in 2016, your proportional ownership interest will increase to (assuming you don't sell any shares) 16.65%, which is an increase of 66.5% from your original ownership. So long as you keep the stake and so long as the company continues to assertively repurchase shares, it's just a matter of time (at current valuations) to where the company will buyback a significant amount of outstanding shares leaving you with a MUCH HIGHER % of ownership than you originally owned.

    Hence, the exact reason why I illustrated in my buyback models the effects of repurchases at low per share value. Owners who hold out during times of turmoil and assuming company is committed to buybacks will greatly benefit from the reduction of public float, and the subsequent increase in ownership interest.
    Mar 19, 2015. 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall - The Company Everyone Loves To Hate [View article]
    I have already included the dividend in my FCF calculation towards buybacks.

    I prefer no dividends as i believe continued investments back into the business via share buybacks at a 20% yield compounds much more efficiently.
    Mar 19, 2015. 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall - The Company Everyone Loves To Hate [View article]
    Appreciate the insight akarc.

    Broadband penetration will take longer than most people believe. Capex spends are weighed against ROIC, and so far, improving speeds in certain areas make no economic sense.
    Mar 19, 2015. 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Essex Rental: Technical Default Masks Massive Value; Triple-Digit Returns Possible [View article]
    Wow.
    Mar 19, 2015. 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall - The Company Everyone Loves To Hate [View article]
    I don't think I'm "way above" guidance.

    Guidances aren't meant to be accurate, but merely "guidances". Analysts who use guidances and bake it into their models are in my opinion lazy.

    Management has already said that the guidance is imperfect as it does not bake into account the price increases that was implemented in December. If rental volume declines 7%, and the assumption on rev per rental increases by my current assumptions, then the FCF i have guided does not seem "aggressive" at all.

    I have already explained my inputs in the article, and if you don't agree with my inputs then you can suggest other alternatives backed with your reasoning.
    Mar 19, 2015. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall - The Company Everyone Loves To Hate [View article]
    Unless you think OUTR can invest in a business with a 20% yield, I think share buybacks are the only way to allocate capital at this point. It's obviously not the MOST efficient, but I rather it being spent on buybacks than stupid new business ideas.
    Mar 19, 2015. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall - The Company Everyone Loves To Hate [View article]
    Thanks for your comment.

    I don't think you understood the mental exercise I was trying to demonstrate by illustrating the point that current investors are in a situation similar to that of the 100 people being listed in the example. The investors who don't sell end up owning the rest of the business no matter how you configure the buybacks. Hence, why I said, the biggest risk is if the stock explodes higher which will FORCE shareholders to sell.

    You can model the buybacks anyway you like, but I was only demonstrating the different buybacks at different prices. Trying to forecast a buyback model is not a very productive use of my time as it requires too many inputs no one has access to.

    I didn't forecast a terminal value. I don't think there is one.
    Mar 19, 2015. 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall - The Company Everyone Loves To Hate [View article]
    It does not. It was never a material business division.
    Mar 19, 2015. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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