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Wim Lewi

 
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  • Big Things Happening In Japan [View article]
    I agree, sometimes the most obvious conclusion is the hardest one to reach. I believe that this common sense is well known to the politicians and central bankers. They thrive on self-interest. The horizon is however getting shorter and the interventions bolder in order to get an effect. Abe wants his victory already in July. After 2000 and 2008, we are gearing up for another 50% gyration, while we could have risen 20-30% in equity markets on a normal economic recovery over the next 2-3 years.
    The worst of all is that rich people get richer with their equity exposure while the poor people stand most to loose as the government disintegrates in its pool of debt.
    May 21, 2013. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Snapdragon: Is This Qualcomm-Apple Rumor True? [View article]
    Hi Ashraf, it would be very unlike AAPL do to do that and almost feels like desperation. I dont believe they have to leave that much margin on the foundry table as they could use older and slower technology for the production of the chips. The margin will be dramatically lower anyway. But they need to get these emerging customers into the iOS realm and sell them iPhones when they move up the ladder a couple of years down the road.
    How is that Intel chip performing vs. Qcom ?
    Mar 11, 2013. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has Little Left To Lose [View article]
    I am confused that there is so much AAPL pessimism on the board. When the stock quadruples in a straight line to 700, comments were bullish and the stock was set for 1000 USD. Smart people on Wall Street that are paid as if they have a rare talent were unanimous about this. Now, the stock has come back to earth and the bashers come out of their holes and cool their saved up anger a little too late. I am a fundamental investor and that takes a lot of patience. I am probably too early with my change of opinion, but I believe that method of investing works best for me. This does not mean that I go to sleep in the meantime. If Apple makes mistakes and loses its grip on the market completely, I can still chance my opinion again. But at this price, the company is a much better investment than all government bonds or any other fixed income vehicle. They still generate a hell of a lot of cash. Sentiment will calm down or even reverse on the blink of an eye.
    Mar 5, 2013. 03:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ASML: A Great Company To Buy When The Price Is Right [View article]
    Matthew,
    Can you give some numbers on where the growth will come from ?
    Something like tools x ASP x profit margin.
    Why is 20% growth optimistic and 5% pessimistic ?
    I don't believe that EUV tools x ASP will be higher than current ArF sales, simply because they are so much more productive.
    The ArF tools are only just beginning to pay back the investments on immersion and double patterning. Intc wants to start in 450mm wafers at the same time = 100% yield gain = 50% fewer tools.
    I am curious for your forecasts. What about the stock overhang from the Cymer deal ?
    Feb 5, 2013. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ASML Short Squeeze Is 20% Opportunity [View article]
    I underestimated the short squeeze power. There are a couple of factors that explain the current upswing. ASML has raised capital in a dubious transaction with INtel, Samsung and TSMC. They get 23% in the company, while ASML does a reverse share split to compensate. Normally this effect should have worn off. ASML CFO hates shorts and might have kept some of that money on the side for a Buyback. The 23% in now locked up for 2.5 yrs.The bid for Cymer has also created a lot of hedging strategies. The bid is a large part in stock. This also restricts the free float as Cymer shareholders get a 25% bonus on the original price. They will not receive 80 USD, but more than 100 USD. This also limits the current free-float. The Intel news that they will spend 13bn in Capex has fooled some analysts into believing that this will boost INTC tool orders. On the contrary, the ASML investment on ArF will suffer as the pay-back time is dramatically shortened by accelerating to EUV. I still believe the numbers will look terrible as soon as the smoke disappears. This market gives the benefit of the doubt and the bolder the claims, the higher the stocks go. I keep my short right where it is for a target of 50 USD. The strong Euro is irrelevant as they sell in USD and this will hit the Euro result anyway. ASML produces 100% in Holland.
    Jan 30, 2013. 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ASML Short Squeeze Is 20% Opportunity [View article]
    ASML flat now, short squeeze seems over, let fundamentals take over.
    Jan 18, 2013. 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ASML Short Squeeze Is 20% Opportunity [View article]
    Intel 13bn capex is not a disaster for my ASML short.
    2bn is dedicated to a new fab. It is clear that capacity utilization is still too low to increase the current immersion base. US was only 9% of ASML sales, so INTC is buying nothing at the moment. The capex goes into reasearch grants to ASML and IMEC center for EUV development. ASML has 11 EUV orders, that equals the same amount of 22 ArF tools, which is a bit more than a normal quarter sales. The margin on EUV will horrible, unless you write off the R&D costs over 10 years. ASML, INTC, TSMC and samsung are finding new ways of hiding R&D costs. ASML raised capital to these guys and IMEC acts as a non-rofit research center that swallows hundreds of millions in R&D. Lets first see how many ArF tools bring in the butter this year for ASML.
    Jan 18, 2013. 05:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ASML Short Squeeze Is 20% Opportunity [View article]
    McKalip,

    I couldn't agree more, but what are the numbers.
    32nm to 22nm was expensive, but 14nm is going off the scale,
    Intc now spends around 6bln on maintenace and 7 bln on growth.
    The new iteration will cost more than replacing the current capacity.
    The power gain is a linear function, but brings other side effects like noise and material instability. The costs of shrinkage are exponential. You will have to sell more chips in order to get your investment back. Each step has been justified by a new application. Can you calculate how many chips at what price INTC, samsung and TSMC have to sell ?
    Jan 18, 2013. 02:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ASML Short Squeeze Is 20% Opportunity [View article]
    Thanks for the complement, I believe in working the numbers and discover the short term exaggerations, takes more time and patience, but this is the market to do it in, lots of noise and too much money.
    Jan 17, 2013. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ASML Short Squeeze Is 20% Opportunity [View article]
    ASML trending down from a peak of 69.60 at 2PM to 68.05 at 3PM.
    That is 2.5% since I sent in the article. 17.5% to go, that could take a bit longer. Intel Capex announcement at 5pm needs to pour some cold water on this hot stock. Short squeezes are very tough to judge. The downside of a short has no limit and margin calls can make stocks go into hypersphere. I hope that fundamentals will prevail. By the way, I live about 80km from the ASML headquarters. I have visited them many times. Impressive site that reminds of a lunar base. Soon coming back to earth.
    Jan 17, 2013. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ASML Short Squeeze Is 20% Opportunity [View article]
    I believe that the relief comes from TSMC, stating they will spend 9bln capex this year up from 8.2bln. I address this in my article as a shift from samsung to TSMC. That doesn't say anything about the overall spending, Samsung could cut back by more than the increase and INTC is on tap later today. ASML results were negative and the increase started before the US open. I believe a lot is due to the short squeeze. I do not believe the consumer will be a happy bunny this year and buy more technology than last year. There is enough capacity installed.
    Jan 17, 2013. 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: A Sobering Reality [View article]
    Nice work, I agree that a good technology sells itself without acquisitions. The accounting afterwards keeps the figures and the share price high. They need that to avoid dilution. I never believed that 3-D would become a manufacturing technology. Printing guns, etc... I just don't dare to short it, you never know how many fools are out there believing there will be a 3D car printer outside the Walmart soon.
    Jan 16, 2013. 03:17 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Be Sane In An Insane Investment Climate [View article]
    Hi,
    I agree that investing is tough in this environment, but your 4 stock picks are suicidal. I have just written 3 short notes on AAPL, AMZN and CRM. One of those recently lost his shirt and the other 2 will soon. In fact CRM might start today with the peck and feather treatment. check my SA reports on AAPL, CRM and AMZN.
    Jan 16, 2013. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Young And Restless: The Amazon 'Confusion' Continues [View article]
    Let's stop doing financial research alltogether, because stocks only need growth to rise ? Just get a market quote and offer free services, like cleaning or laundry. Like AMZN helps you by offering free shipping and pays away the retail margin and cost advantages to UPS. You dont have to do any shopping anymore. Just sit at home and wait till the UPS man brings your durables. According to Morgan Stanley, sales will rise 6-fold by 2020 and still grow 5% annually after that. The simple explanation is that now AMZN is 1% of durable retail and 6% is still a very small number for such a great company. Can the US road system actually hold that many UPS vans at the same time ? That is what financial research has become. OMG This will be the AAPL correction on an exponential scale, not -30%, but -60%. Please read further than the first line of the results report, it will pay off in the end.
    Jan 16, 2013. 05:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dell Doesn't Need A Buyout [View article]
    Indeed, the buy high, sell low market is in full swing. Analysts upgrade stocks like AMZN because they go up and downgrade Dell because it goes down. Initially there is a fundamental catalyst, but the trend is extrapolated into ridiculous territory. The million dollar question still is when and why will it reverse. When it does, it usually hurts. Like AAPL, all the sheep are now on the wrong side of the fence. Anyway, it pays to be patient. I could have waited 12 months for Dell to go up 30%, but 1 month is also fine. Today, DELL is hot because it is going up, the article is now also trending much better than the first one. Stocks have to go up, before they can rally. I blame that on quant funds, structured products, trading programs and ETF clowns. The market is trading the noise that twitter and blogs pour into the market. FB press meeting was another great exemple of the hot air market. Sooner or later, a bigger portion of investors will realize that it makes sense to build a valuation case and be patient. Hopefully the market will become more rational and fundamental.
    Jan 15, 2013. 03:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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