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Wim Lewi

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  • Dell Doesn't Need A Buyout [View article]
    I dont really agree
    Data server is the new name for mainframe and they are alive and kicking,
    Power tablets will become the new notebooks, they will be closer to the PC than the mobile phone,
    Tablet are smartphones with a bigger screen, the iPad mini is the best example. OK to check the weather. Most people probably dont need more than that and thats why they sell 200 million of them in a year.
    Jan 15 11:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL -2.3%) has tumbled below $500 following Nomura's big PT cut. Multi-Fineline's (MFLX -20.3%) warning also might not be going over well. Nomura backs up the WSJ and Nikkei's reports by stating its own checks indicate weaker-than-expected iPhone 5 sales; it now expects 48M sales in FQ1, and 39M in FQ2, but is raising its iPad forecasts. Echoing a recent CLSA note, Nomura thinks Android's Asian dominance has become a problem for Apple. Sterne Agee, meanwhile, believes all is well. [View news story]
    Analysts are lagging indicators. The fair value is 500 USD, but they missed the correction and are now panicking. The exaggeration happens at both sides up and down. I explain the analyst panic :
    Jan 15 11:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Analysts Missed The Apple Correction [View article]
    My analysis is rubbish ?
    What about that bet that you will double ?
    Easy money if you ask me.
    Simple spreadsheet math shows that everybody is following the herd into the abyss. AMZN is up next.
    Jan 15 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Dell Will Escape The Value Trap [View article]
    The numbers dont lie, DELL is cheap.
    Jan 14 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Needs A Higher Share Price To Grow [View article]
    I short CRM naked as part of a hedge against my deep-value longs, type Nokia, Vestas, Alcatel, etc... So I elimate the market risk. I entered what I consider half a position at 164. Since then CRM has just performed in line with the market, so I am not bothered. I save some cash up to hit the short button again around 180. I would never bet the house against CRM, because at a market cap of bln 24 USD and cheap money there is still the very small outside chance of a bid if Larry is bored on his yacht and wants some headlines. I will bet the house against AMZN if it gets to 325, or AAPL if it gets 1000 USD,
    Jan 11 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Needs A Higher Share Price To Grow [View article]
    on 3/10 sell AAPL +25% profit
    on 17/10 buy Nokia
    + 93%
    I am doing fine, thank you very much
    Jan 10 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Cheaper iPhone Would Confirm A Lack Of Innovation And Declining Margins At Apple [View article]
    I Agree, I predicted this event in my article of 3 November, that was originally titled 'iPhone mini is biggest risk for Apple sales'. The editor changed the title as it might suggest that this was a confirmed idea.
    last alinea :
    "I expect Apple to decrease iPhone ASP's in order to defend its market share. An inevitable iPhone Mini will have a much bigger negative impact on the bottom line."
    Jan 9 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Needs A Higher Share Price To Grow [View article]
    Medguy, thanks for the constructive comment. It is true that I was nimble player in the CSFB tech research group. Nevertheless, I staid true to my beliefs and refused to peddle silly IPO's in 2001 when the wheels came off the wagon. I saw some high flying and overpriced analysts leave for hedge funds to blow up a year later. I might be traumatised by that period 2000-2002, but I never believed the hype would continue. On the other hand, I recognize some patterns that remind me of those time. It could still roll on for a couple of quarters, but sooner or later, profits will matter again. I do not believe that CRM or AMZN will ever get to that stage that will explain their current valuation. They are surely taking share, but they are destroying the profitability at the same time. Simply because it is not game-changing technology. Selling below cost and getting sales is easy. I remember Miracle holding, a Swiss company that invented XRP, a 'new' version of SAP ERP system in 2000. They had 1 order of a large hotel group. They floated at 1,5 bln USD. The management cashed out. The hotel group sued them for 100 mln after 3 months as the program did't function and paralyzed the hotels for weeks. 6 months after the IPO, the company bankrupted.
    Maybe, I became too old and cynical, but I have learnt to focus on all the numbers and not just the topline party.
    Jan 9 04:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Needs A Higher Share Price To Grow [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. What I meant was that the decline of 100bln from 600 to 500bln in the Apple market cap equals to 4x salesforce market cap. I agree that I could have written that a bit more clear. Apple's decline shows that growth has to be proven every year in and out. As people are selling Apple, they have to look for new 'growth stocks' in a no growth economy. I wanted to illustrate that if 100bln left Apple and invested everything in CRM, then they needed to buy 4 times the market cap. I know that isn't exact science, but the market is not scientific at all. Smoke, mirror and hype artists is the name of the game. CRM and AMZN are some of the biggest players in town. Growth is overpriced, value is underpriced, that is the theme of recommendations.
    Jan 9 03:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TomTom (TMOAF.PK) is up 6.1% in Amsterdam after a Rabobank analyst claims there's a 30% chance Apple (AAPL) will try to buy the company to help fix Apple Maps - TomTom currently provides mapping/navigation data for the much-criticized app. Navigation services rival Telenav (TNAV +4.7%) appears to be rallying on the news, but PND rival Garmin (GRMN -3.3%) is lower. TomTom CEO Harold Goddjin said in October his company plans to remain independent. [View news story]
    You could have read it 20% cheaper here :

    Content supply chain

    Apple also had a free ride on the back of the App developers that upgraded the iPhone to a free software store. Rovi (ROVI) probably sold trillions of games, but is only valued at USD 1.5 billion. Instead, the attraction of free applications made billions for Apple without lifting a finger. However, the App market is not an iPhone exclusive. Google also captured the App-market train with its Android OS. Digitaltrends shows it is now taking market share from everybody including Apple. Google has now booted out the Apple ecosystem as it also overstepped the supplier border with the Motorola acquisition. Replacing the Google maps content was done in a hurry. A bid for the TomTom (TOM2) map know-how will cost Apple only a couple of billions, but it all adds to the bill of making its own content. Apple will have to invest more capex in its iOS and come up with some dramatically new features. Its resistance to acquisitions to gain content will have to change. The Windows 8 platform has to make up a lot of lost ground, but is not dead in the water yet. The asymco graphs show the Android gains and also remind investors that Symbian had a 41% market share at the start of 2010.
    Dec 12 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Anathema To Value Investors? [View article]
    Stephen, I would like to see a bit more detail on your calulations that show AWS becoming the biggest revenue and profit generator that will balance out the current loss-making business model. AWS is 2.6 bln in sales on a total of 62 bln. The 100% gross margin is fiction, because there is no free spare capacity. Every extra server instruction costs money. AMZN is not the only company with server capacity. If you anticipate more losses from the traditional e-commerce which is 2/3 of the core business, you need a hell of a margin on the third party sales. There is nothing in that service that Fedex or UPS could get into as they deliver the critical last miles in the e-commerce model. Please provise some more backbone to your claim that 15 USD in EPS is a sure thing by 2017. You could be responsable for a lot of unknowing investors to loose a lot of their money. I personnaly think that AMZN is worth 50 USD on realistic assumptions that I explain step by step.
    Dec 12 07:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Analysts Missed The Apple Correction [View article]
    Indeed, but I am patient, the sales from this Xmass will be great, but the the LT profit expectations that are baked in the price will not materialize. When the market will adjust to that is still the million USD question, the value of a stock is what a fool will pay for it. After good returns on AAPL, NOK and also recently DELL (only 1000 hits), I have had a great run, it is rarely that easy. I am also looking to short CRM, lots of insider selling, vague business model and Cramer going hot about the stock, calling it the FB of the enterprise, are all very encouraging, but again I am looking for a catalyst.
    Dec 11 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Trading At 2.56x 2016 Cash Flow [View article]
    Anthony, you could have written the same article about Nokia when it stood at 40 USD in 2009 and was hit because there were rumours of a new product coming. You could have thrown in a bit more margin decline, but in fact you should have assumed that at 40 USD, the whole product range was broken, etc... AAPL cash position is untaxed and still has to pay 28 billion to its suppliers. In fact, 70 bln is my guess of the overstatement after capex costs. Anyway, the iPhone is 75% of the restvalue of about 425 bn. That is the Achilles heel. By the end 2013, it will be a common product and gross margin will be closer to the 20% of the PC market than the current 62%. I have a target of 500 USD, but the over-loved state of this stock, could push it down to 360 USD.
    Dec 11 03:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Analysts Missed The Apple Correction [View article]
    I agree, the regulation attempts like SOX have only made things worse for the private investor. Professional analysts and Investors are driven by bonuses on their actions. This is quite different from private investors that have a symmetric gain/loss ratio. If analyst gets it 30% wrong on Apple, he will not get sacked, because everybody was bullish. If he got it right and the stock goes to 1000, a nice bonus will be his share, like it was the last 2 years in a row. This assymetry in reward has stimulated investors and analysts to take irresponsable risks with other pepole's money. New bonus rules that performance has to be measured over 3 years might change these excesses. I believe that private investors should start doing their own homework and completely ignore the noise from Wall Street or use the noise to their adavantage. I once heard this metaphore on ice skating on open lakes, like is custom in Holland. You should never skate where there are large groups skating, because when you hit a weak spot in the ice you get sucked in with group. If and when AAPL really reports a weak set of results, who will be able to upgrade their recommendation in support ? Most analysts will be up to their neck in the ice cold water.
    Dec 8 06:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Analysts Missed The Apple Correction [View article]
    In 1.5 years, the iPhone will be a product closer to what the iPod is now. Nowhere near a 650 USD price tag and Asian copy-cats will bake smartphones faster than corn flakes. International market share is already declining. iOS will not become the WW mobile standard like Windows was a couple of years ago. The iPad can grow in volume and should, because it is a lower margin product. I do not know for sure wether AAPL will not make the next big innovation, but I think it is unlikely. This article wants to warn retail investors that they will not get a timely warning from sell-side analysts as they have other things to worry about. Just because AAPL is up up 40% since last year, that doesn't make it a good investment.
    Dec 8 06:14 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment