Seeking Alpha

Windy Hill Investments

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Windy Hill Investments' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Heard during GameStop's (GME -1.7%) earnings call: 1) The retailer expects the wave of next-gen consoles to have lower opening prices, but doesn't provide estimates. 2) The game cycle is expected to regain traction in 2014 as adoption rates of new systems hit critical mass. 3) On the outlook for used games, execs think new consoles will kickstart a fresh round of buying/trading - but acknowledge long-term trends will be influenced by digital alternatives. 4) The company says it will maintain its previously announced pace of share buybacks. 5) In an important note, GameStop says it's partnering closely with Microsoft and Sony to ensure a "seemless transition" to next consoles. But at what cost to profits? (webcast[View news story]
    Failed to mention the earlier roll out of the new systems. Huge backlog of customers on the first to buy list for new systems. Also, the persistence of old systems. They are positioned to benefit immensely as many will stick with old systems and buy old games.
    May 23, 2013. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Exuberance In The Electric Car Market [View article]
    Agree the fundamentals are improving, just think it is ahead of itself. It keeps getting compared to AAPL, but APPL from 2005-2008 never had a P/E over 40.
    May 14, 2013. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Exuberance In The Electric Car Market [View article]
    Bank of America Merrill Lynch, May 14th updated Tesla price target > $37

    Deutsche Bank, May 14th updated Tesla price target > $50

    You can find someone to justify any price, and also people seeking confirming evidence rather than looking at this objectively. Morgan is the odd man out. Needed a bubble era 15-year cash flow model to justify. Must be trying to get their clients out of the stock or pandering for a lead spot on a secondary offering.
    May 14, 2013. 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Exuberance In The Electric Car Market [View article]
    Herb Greenberg on this question of Tech vs. Manufacturer:
    http://bit.ly/10MM4Ml

    "It's a hybrid, but one that is more of an auto company than tech company."

    "My take: I have no idea what will happen to Tesla -- the company or the stock. I've been around too long to make that kind of prediction. But I do know that anything short of perfection for Tesla will cause this stock to fall a whole lot faster than it has risen."
    May 14, 2013. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: An Idea, A Dream, A Concept [View article]
    If Tesla raises a secondary it will be to build out charging stations across the nation. Very low ROI, and high cash burn. High dilution. Probably necessary to the dream, but not something you want to be a part of as a shareholder over the next few years.
    May 14, 2013. 02:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Exuberance In The Electric Car Market [View article]
    Not comparable. Smart phones have network effects from producers developing software on their platform. Each car purchase is basically an separate individual decision.
    May 13, 2013. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Exuberance In The Electric Car Market [View article]
    If this is true, why did Elon Musk tweet "Improving service and honing manufacturing efficiency are the biggest short term challenges. Not sales constrained."
    May 13, 2013. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Exuberance In The Electric Car Market [View article]
    Perhaps the better terminology would be sole vehicle, rather than primary vehicle. Anyone that buys a Tesla will also have an ICE car for long trips. Renting is a possibility. Range is still an issue the Tesla owners I know are still finding they run out of battery life and can't always do the things they wanted as a result. They can't just stop and fill up at a gas station and keep going. Doesn't affect them on an ordinary commute day, but still an issue.
    May 13, 2013. 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Exuberance In The Electric Car Market [View article]
    Direct quotes from the 10K. "Full," "Steady State," "Target" and additional capital needed to expand production.

    "We have very limited experience in the high volume delivery of our Model S vehicles as we have recently reached our steady state
    production rate of 400 vehicles produced per week."

    "Model S production and deliveries will continue to require significant resources and we may experience unexpected delays or difficulties that could harm our ability to maintain full manufacturing capacity for Model S, or cause us to miss planned production targets, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, prospects, operating results and financial condition. Additionally, sustaining high volume production and doing so in a manner that avoids significant cost overruns, including as a result of factors beyond our control such as problems with suppliers and vendors, may be difficult."

    "We are targeting an annual production rate at this facility for
    Model S of approximately 20,000 cars in 2013. We believe that we will be able to increase the annual production capacity of this plant beyond this amount through additional capital spending as well as by changing operating patterns and adding additional shifts."
    May 13, 2013. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Exuberance In The Electric Car Market [View article]
    JackB125 agree with a lot of your sentiment. However, I think most of that was known a month ago when most of us first saw a Model S. The recent move up in the stock price is a market dislocation fueled by a hype cycle from Elon Musk. They probably will build a good company over time, stock is just a little ahead of itself by any quantitative measure at this point.
    May 13, 2013. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Exuberance In The Electric Car Market [View article]
    Deutsche bank's latest analyst report has the best analysis of margins. They can get to 25%, but it will be heavily based on EV credits. If you back out EV credits their current margin is closer to 5-6% not the 17% reported.
    May 13, 2013. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Exuberance In The Electric Car Market [View article]
    Read the 10K or 10Q and get back to me. They are producing at capacity.
    May 13, 2013. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Exuberance In The Electric Car Market [View article]
    Get in any car made today in Detroit or Japan, they are all electronic, that is not unique to TSLA.
    May 13, 2013. 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Exuberance In The Electric Car Market [View article]
    If you study your history most of the initial auto manufacturers were financial failures. Not saying they can't succeed because they were not the first. Just saying the media/market portrayal of Tesla as the creator of the electric car and sole innovator in this space is wrong.
    May 13, 2013. 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Irrational Exuberance In The Electric Car Market [View article]
    Please read to the bottom of the article, the author has driven the car and it is an impressive vehicle. The numbers just do not work out.
    May 13, 2013. 10:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
18 Comments
12 Likes