Wisdom vs. Information

Wisdom vs. Information
Contributor since: 2009
Company: Hill Solar
adding features as silicon/software improve is evidence of a 'decline'? dumb
so, tech stocks were over-valued in 1998? all you tech-is-scary types, this is how it works: Buffet only "invests" in industries he can control thru legislation (insurance, traspo, etc) and since he has not figured out how to institutionalize tech, he avoids it. bravo brave Warren! bravo Felix, who is a big fan of the institutionalization of capital as well. hopefully those guys encourage some of you to sell to me-- cheap
BSFT is to SIP trunking as APKT is to SBC. Adjust your portfolio accordingly
PEx is worthless on next gen companies. Simplistic to the point of worthless. Price to sales is the only ratio that matters, and year over year quarterly revenue growth. Some of these companies are growing their sales forces and infrastructure quickly, thus will not be profitable while growing. Also, revenue was extrememly impressive, only quarterly guidance missed. The elephants are shaking the monkeys out of the trees of the fastest growing sectors. This monkey will be loading up. FD: long FNSR and CTXS, adding to FNSR. neutral APKT, DRIV & ADVS. no opinion on others
internet usage is transitioning from browsers to apps on mobile and internet TV. GOOG and RIMM are not competitive in the app space; why do you think Schmidt got fired? adjust your portfolio accordingly
ford overpaying his workers led to them striking and demanding even higher wages after Ford announced to the world that he was charging less for his cars than he could. classic b-school case of 'good deeds never go unpunished.' workers became even more overpaid, autos wound up over-priced, and that cycle continued until 2008. shame on big biz/ labor/ gov't complex, although credit must be given for how long they maintained the scam; of course, we were paying a price for that scam all along.
big labor and big business are two sides of the same coin, you are missing the 'mark' here. both are against small and medium business as the competiton is bad for corporate profits, thus overpaid big labor. big labor thrived in the 70's when small biz was legislatively repressed. now, how did the overall economy do then? the stock market? adjusted for inflation, nothing. paying people $70/hour to build cars is not 'sharing in the prosperity,' it is piracy
Tom, ATR is average true range, available as a study in most trading platform charts, or sites like stockcharts.com. I watch it on the futures contracts. EH
tree huggers have no shot at outlawing frac; the fedral gov't may begin regulating it so they can rape, er sorry, collect some more taxes, but fracturing is proven and will not become illegal-- frankly, the idea that fracturing might be outlawed is just silly
Tom, i measure volatility with ATR. we could see the new paradigm as the big boys and their computers trade for (almost) free; on the other hand, mean reversion usually wins in the end. most likely we will see something in between, higher volatility than in the past but less than the extremes of the last three years. we could be at the bottom of the new range right now, IMO we are at a critical point right now, very interesting
OPWV has the same issue as most of the other telcom software companies: next gen tech is not selling yet and last gen sales are plummeting much faster than anticipated. since their competitors are mostly small and private, it is hard to tell what exactly is happening; on the plus side, uptake of NSNs competitve product is poor. i see OPWV as all or nothing once nextgen sales kick in, more of a lottery play: several of these companies will truly thrive while the rest disappear, thus OPWV is in a basket of similar companies, low risk high reward
PEG is meaningless on the CDNs; try price per sales instead. my concern w/ AKAM is LVLT (no, not b/c of NFLX, LVLT has been vigorously developing its CDN offerings for a while). i agree that CDN could be reaching commodity status as LVLT, Global Crossing and XOXO get into the act-- and if you like AKAM etc, make certain you look at how THOSE three stocks have performed over the last ten years. that said, i do not have the conviction to short AKAM, b/c who knows what innovations will occur as next gen software brings video to cell towers
have UEP in the forget-it stack in the IRA. LT i like the story, ST no opinion. if you want to play these dogs, buy a basket. most likely, some of them pop and get up to target prices, giving you a nice return even if the rest continue to lag.
right now, they cannot get a job at all. not an insightful comment
so that is why permanent unemployment keeps going up (even during the economic expansion!), thus the number of people permanently institutionalized by the government and charities? minimum wage does not improve household income, and it never has anywhere. stupid law for ignorant people.
thanks Tom very timely, pension effects will be news for at least a year. i hope that you are right about the discount rate going up, but i see japan's present as our future. MMM will handle this better than others-- it is the others that should present good short opportunities
1. it was down 7% when i wrote the note. try a better platform next time. 2. down 14% is annoying, but NOT impressive. sorry
this speculative article deserves whatever mud gets slung; if the author can't handle it, take it down! i repeat, why was this article linked on every financial site on the entire web immediately? something stinks here, including the deletion of comments
and, i should add, if smart money were getting out of this stock, it would be down a lot more than 7%
whenever someone tells you economics is complicated, duck, because the s!@# is flying. supply and demand, it's just that simple. if it is more complicated and expensive to live the dream of owning your own business, fewer people will do it. done, no economics degree needed. private health insurance costs will 2x to 3x during by 2014, which has SMBs, and more importantly potential SMBs, rethinking plans, re-evaluating the opportunities which pop up during recessions and usually lead to strong recoveries. and, much less known, Obama is presently packing the FASB board in order to write a batch of new regs that will increase the cost of biz for small biz significantly. what will be the impact of that? pretty simple, as long as you avoid letting the eggsucking eggheads confuse you
i track service provider IP sector. up 34.6% quarterly. coincidence? doubt it, since SP IT is the avenue by which consumer IT reaches consumers. SP IT is not overvalued, no opinion on consumer IT; i have a hard time believing facebook will stick since i find it steadily less useful personally. i will keep my money on SP IT without fear since i am certain T, GOOG, etc will successfully monetize cell phones.
Snail, DPI will lower the total cost, thus revenue, of advertising, and no, no boatload of money will protect GOOG from that.
we are probably back in 70's, not the 30's. the gov'mint is making certain that prices stay up to protect the assets of the super rich (the opposite of how a recession is corrected) while wages fall (as they should in a recession). thus, the super rich are protected from the consequences of their investments while the middle class suffers, and gov'mint employees become more powerful and, as we saw from the stats this week, insanely overpaid, no exaggeration.
S&P 500 and Dow represent the biggest companies, not the overall economy, and with the gov'mint protecting corporate profits, this will (probably!) not be the 30's for the market.
real long term job creation comes from capital creation, not job creation; Best Buy may hire an extra few thousand when big screens TVs are ridiculously hot, but that is not structural employment, as we saw vividly in 2008-9. for the first time, VCs, angels, professionals are NOT creating the new businesses that they always create when capital is cheap-- sorry, that is a structural problem, not cyclical. since 90% of new jobs are created by new businesses, structural PROBLEMS definitely exist. they are taxes and regulations, and they have been kiling capital creation for the last ten years; in other words, we have had structural issues since the late 90s. the author is just another political apologist, not a real economist. check the capital creation stats for the last ten years if you do not believe me, it is pretty simple. do not confuse job creation with capital creation b/c one is temporary and one is permanent
Tony, i trade a lot of high beta small caps, and you are incorrect; i anticipate this happening routinely and profit on it routinely (PWAV, ADCT twice, PKT, STAR, AKAM, VMW, & FNSR twice, whatever is hot). you have to know the fundamentals of the sector to successfully defy the technicals, however. and grampy, my point exactly-- the big boys knew what they were going to do regardless. note, i am not saying this will happen, i am saying i keep my mind open-- could be BRCD, where the entire sector broke down; maybe the entire service provider IT sector is about to slide
and on a different tack, remember STAR getting killed after an excellent report, but not enough new customers? notice what the stock did after the big boys successfully drove it down? that's right, they bought it right back up, and no doubt made a killing on both trips. if a lot of you set stops, the computers will note this and take you out cheap, esp during low volume
APKT is next gen tech, they have no clue when orders will start rolling in, and they have no clue on how the take up on verticals to SBCs (session border controller) will unfold. thus, criticising how they manage expectations is just silly. SBCs are growing fantastically, but the most important thing you all probably heard on the CC was that the RBOCs will use more than one supplier because they ALWAYS DO. that means someone like Sonus(SONS) or Genband (private, working on IPO) is winning lots of orders. however, APKT will probably remain dominant during this cycle.
so why the drop? IMHumbleO, APKT was overextended (which is why I was out), and what matters is APKT's ability to penetrate verticals, not keep SONS out of SBCs. this stock will live and die on guidance into markets other than SBCs; since there was no negative guidance on verticals, this most likely is just a correction and APKT will rebound somewhere between 50 and 200 day MA; however, if i am wrong and analysts were disappointed by lack visability into verticals, then the drop could be quite substantial
funny that Paul Krugman knows more about small biz than small biz does. PK is an embarrassment to the field of economics and proof that the Nobel Prize for Economics is a mark of shame. what's truly revolting is that small biz was contracting years before the financial melt down, and people like PK were too full of neo-fascist social democratic nonsense to even watch how their beloved federal regulation increases were effecting small biz-- not to mention, they could have noted how economic neo-fascism is working out for W Europe and Japan over the last twenty years: W Europe has fallen 20% behind the US and Japan is actually getting poorer. Idiots!
i neither track chips in general nor the chip ETFs. i just track the advanced chips (as i call them): SoCs, multicores, FPGAs etc. The info i feel is relevant is that the advanced chip makers are stealing large amounts of market share from the traditional chip makers (certain) and that they will continue to grow while others fall and ETFs will fall or lag (my own speculation).
let's take the administration at face value, economy has been adding jobs every month; ok, let's do a little statistical smoothing, say, three month average, that gives us-- an incredibly crappy number, which BTW makes last month's gain, which was supposed to be great, horrible. SMB, including me, is running scared, delaying investment, in the face of the brave new "Hope"-before-freedom world. funny how hope means new taxes and regs to some people, that is despair to me
Mark, I did not believe the flash crash was a fluke nor mistake and IMO today proves it. "They" say that big money watches the LEI, I would bet, if provable, that "they" knew the LEI was down.
the lesson of the 10 minute crash and recovery is not a lesson, it's a reminder: stop loss orders only work if you are an active investor. stop loss orders create risk also. if you cannot handle that risk, do not use that tool
oh, so the FCC will not increase regs going forward, esp during populist regimes like the current one? sorry, that is incredibly, pathetically naive. regardless, it makes the internet more expensive and less profitable at the same time, stupid, and the FCC has no business whatsoever regulating CABLE ever for any reason. the pro net neutrality arguements do not even merit debate because they are strictly emotional, embarrassing