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Wisdom vs. Information

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  • 4G Hype: Field of Dreams [View article]
    comments above completely miss the point of the article-- how much will ARPUs rise? you think LTE will give stationary consumers better experiences than WiFi or WiMax that is available now? it will not. will our TV watching children be able to afford expensive 4G bandwidth? bandwidth is limited, 4G, 3G, whatever. those bandwidth intensive devices our kids will use to watch TV will go over cheap WiFi and WiMax networks and wired femto-type devices at home, not expensive 4G bandwidth. executives streaming video conferences or stock info on the go will pay the premium for LTE; if people are not demanding enough data to raise ARPU now, will they when 4G comes out? what you do not understand is that LTE will NOT give the consumer a significantly better experience; HSPA is quite adequate for video. LTE helps the carriers. thus, consumers will not significantly change their behaviour when LTE comes out, and ARPUs will not go up significantly. new york and san francisco are taken as a proxy for the entire world and they simply are not-- unless the entire western hemisphere's population hops up and moves into cities overnight
    Mar 28, 2010. 01:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Palm: Pondering the Future and the Vicious Cycle Ahead [View article]
    VZ said in CC that it has been getting hurt from support costs on low priced smart phones; apparently VZ is spending more teaching idiots to use them than it is making on data. does T, or VZ/S/DT, want a piece of that? add it all up, Palm is scary
    Mar 21, 2010. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortinet IPO: Joining the Hot Network Security Sector [View article]
    note WAVX with their security chips. must admit i do not understand how they work, but price /vol demand you keep an eye on this one
    Mar 21, 2010. 10:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More fallout from the Lehman (LEHMQ.PK) report: Sen. Chris Dodd asks the Justice Department to launch an investigation into Lehman and other financial firms "that may have engaged in similar accounting manipulation with a view to prosecution of employees or agents who contributed to any violations of the law." (previously: I, II)  [View news story]
    Since Dobb bankrupted fanny and freddy, let's start an investigation of him while we are at it
    Mar 20, 2010. 08:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Smartest Parts of the IT Market [View article]
    good article overall. i bought a killer laptop two years ago-- it is still killer. don't tell me MSFT is evil, making Vista incompatible with my expensive accounting software was just pointlessly stupid; i suspected as much at the time, and after seeing the long-term results i know it.

    INTC is working to replace the copper inside computers with fiber optics. i do not know how much that will effect processes, but it SOUNDS cool, and with 1G internet for 'everyone' (insert evil ironic laugh of your choice here) on the way, faster processing may be required. IMO, good chance that will be the trigger people need to replace those 5+ yo computers.

    i find it quite odd that the author left out multi-core ICs; comments?
    Mar 20, 2010. 11:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Smartest Parts of the IT Market [View article]
    IBM is mainly a consulting company. the plug-and-play nature of the cloud means less consulting. is IBM nimble enough to take advantage of the disruption? IMO most likely they will lag
    Mar 20, 2010. 11:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fuqi International's Numbers Were Saying It All Along [View article]
    i want to repeat the best stock advice ever above: do not catch a falling knife. i have learned my lesson: long run, it is the surest way to kill your average returns. stocks with decreasing MAs tend to continue to go down until something happens
    Mar 19, 2010. 09:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long Updates: Opnext, Gymboree and FreightCar America [View article]
    OPXT is the traditional leader in 40G+; will they lead this cycle? who knows. if they go to three they will go to five, not much point in selling there. FNSR reported that 40G orders are increasing already, earlier then anticipated
    Mar 11, 2010. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DragonWave: Time to Let the Market Shake Out [View article]
    correct, FNSR generally makes systems while JDSU is the walmart of optical. OCLR and FNSR have had really high betas, easy money last 9 months since they have been beat/raising every quarter. OCLR is really well run, beautiful charts, check it out as well
    Mar 7, 2010. 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DragonWave: Time to Let the Market Shake Out [View article]
    Mark, AVNW has said all along that everyone was going to get a piece of CLWR. short term, I started cutting my tech high flyers (XLNX, NETL, etc) on wednesday, they are ALL looking toppy. market may go up after the job numbers were less horrible than expected, but i will stay in cash until the next sell-off (other than day trades). CSCO is my crystal ball, if they get some green volume i could change my mind. on the other hand, FNSR's report was good so I am still in FNSR and OCLR and IMO the chinese small caps have some more room to run.
    Mar 5, 2010. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Finisar's Boost Related to Google's Fiber Network Announcement? [View article]
    i know authors do not write our headings, but the answer to the title is: of course not. even if FNSR builds every module and subsystem for the entire build out, they will not recognize any revenue from it for AT BEST the next quarter, most likely not until two or three quarters. FNSR's beat and raise is just plain impressive.
    ADCT's report that copper is abolutely dieing right now instead of fading away was very impressive and instructive as well
    Feb 14, 2010. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Wireless Data Traffic [View article]
    right now all the T, S, DT & VZ money is going to ERIC ALU NEC Hwawei etc. within twelve months, OPWV, ADCT, CTV, SMSI, SONS, PWAV are all solid networking plays. sales will not increase for another six months, so doubtful that any prices will begin going up until middle second quarter (other than PWAV, which at 0.25x sales, has some room to run). after 25 years of investing i can pass one sure thing along: Isreali companies are always overhyped. been burned too many times (uh, every time?). the author is incorrect about PWAV's cash flow, they are no longer burning cash. they should have another bad report with murky guidance, so your timeline needs to be at least six months. most likely stock will go back up to ~1.40 if you are looking for a short term trade
    Feb 14, 2010. 02:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Labopharm Just Became a Great Growth Stock [View article]
    my tinfoil hat makes me money, i guess it works; it will quit working when the big boys quit manipulating stocks. frankly, this is a bizarre comment
    Feb 6, 2010. 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opnext: 'Net Net' Value with Good Risk / Reward [View article]
    OPXT is more heavily leveraged to 40/100G components than its competitors; 40/100G is not really selling yet because it is too expensive, but as video and dats grow it becomes more competitive. OPXT expects to become profitable when T and VZ and the Japanese carriers begin building out their LTE networks; I would not try to guess about profit, but i will be buying (back into) OPXT next fall
    Feb 4, 2010. 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: +8K to 480K vs. 460K consensus. Continuing claims +2K to 4,602,000.  [View news story]
    if discouraged unemployed perceive that the job market is improving then they will re-enter and raise UE. i have no idea if that is what happened, but it happens about half the time during "recoveries"
    Feb 4, 2010. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment