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Wisdom vs. Information  

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  • Is Tech Overvalued? [View article]
    another interesting compilation and nice article from Hao Jin, thanks. however, not sure i agree with the conclusion; the PEGs of a few of these companies are properly valued at 1.5x, but long-term the entire group should be be closer to one; thus, some of these the companies, and the ETFs in general, are over-valued
    Nov 29, 2009. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where's the Growth in PC Sales? [View article]
    semiconductors run PCs and equip, if orders for equip is dropping then the semi- restock will end, not the other way around-- unless those semi- are all going to APAC. since domestic Q guidances were all flat, this info seems to confirm. APAC (minus Japan) growth is still strong, so exposure to those markets means growth
    Nov 28, 2009. 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Equities Update: Tech, Builders Pressure Markets [View article]
    well, einstein, adct will probly drop back under 6, then you can pick up a great little networking stock cheap, and maybe you can even buy it for a reason that has nothing to do with a TV windbag, if you bother to learn something about networking
    Nov 23, 2009. 11:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Expect Quad-Play to Dominate the Telecom Space [View article]
    "more in aggregate"? Dean, the 3X or 4X deal in the US that i have seen have lower total price.
    Nov 23, 2009. 11:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE's Immelt Turns Dem [View article]
    Immelt is a Democrat to the core, how ignorant can you people be? Big business supporting federalists who pass laws that protect big business from competition is the history of the Democratic party; Immelt supports Dems while developing 'clean energy,' Buffett supports Dems and buys trains, a pure cap-n-trade play. This is pure and simple corruption disguised as progressive policy, idiotic that you fall for it
    Nov 20, 2009. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Chambers was enthusiastic about an economic recovery on Cisco Systems' (CSCO) Q3 earnings call yesterday: "Based upon our business momentum... this would indicate that the recovery from an initial phase perspective is well underway..." And: "We are seeing very tangible results that the recovery, at least the initial phase of the recovery, is gaining momentum."  [View news story]
    he also said, no 2nd half guidance b/c if hiring does not pick up then we will get no 2nd half orders; his comments, in total, were quite bearish mid term. i am stunned that the stock is up so much, you are looking at a 24PEx indefinitely
    Nov 5, 2009. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint's Upcoming Phone Lineup: It Has to Do Better than That [View article]
    wow, we found the S fanboys. S has an empty network with plenty of capacity and bandwidth, and lots of 3.5G WiMax (no, it is not 4G); but, even if they have good phones (as someone above claims) no one knows it, so it does not matter--if i offer great phones and great service and no one wants them, will i make money?

    S and TMobile have nothing going for them, even if they are executing, because, right or wrong, consumers just do not care; so, the sooner DT buys S the better off they will both be. then, Sprextobile could compete in marketing
    Oct 30, 2009. 09:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to Begin a Long-Term Stake in Market Vectors Brazil Small Cap [View article]
    excellent post and follow up Mark, thanks. i agree that BRIC will outrun the US, at least until we get a new small business friendly administration; in the meantime, we will mirror big government, big business-friendly Japan and Europe
    Oct 30, 2009. 06:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Durable Goods Headlines Hide Weakness in Tech [View article]
    back to normal seasonality for communications, 4Q spending will double 3Q for 3G, WiMax chips are all sold out, this stat will look deceptively good next two or three months; chips: advanced chips are doing well, normal are not-- for now. how many smartphones and dongles, WiMax chips, communications SoCs, etc does the world need during a recession? just a few more billion a year
    Oct 29, 2009. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Until recently, conventional logic says, U.S. car buyers cared little about fuel economy and preferred big, gas-guzzling (profitable) SUVs. But now former GM economist Walter McManus says carmakers systematically dismissed research to the contrary: "Our job was not to seek the truth, but to justify decisions that had already been made."  [View news story]
    revisionist history, dumb comments. large, high vehicles are more pleasurable, convenient, flexible, useful and safer to drive (everything being equal). people did not buy those vehicles b/c they were manipulated, they bought them because they liked them. just because you guys do not like them (or more likely, you feel guilty about it) does not mean that those vehicles are not more convenient and pleasurable to operate.

    not to mention, the car that creates the least consumption is the car that lasts the longest because autos make the most pollution when BUILT, not OPERATED. a diesel f250 makes less pollution than the three Priuses and five batteries that equal its lifetime. you dopes do not realize you are being manipulated into buying new small cars, pathetic, and HURTING the environment by increasing consumption. you imagine yourself progressive when you are in fact ignorant
    Oct 27, 2009. 10:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aug. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: -11.3% vs. -13.3% in July and -11.9% consensus. Nationally, home prices are at levels similar to fall 2003.  [View news story]
    homes were overpriced in fall 2003, if the gov'mint keeps propping up prices, home prices will not fall into affordability
    Oct 27, 2009. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mobile Phone Wars: Keeping My Distance [View article]
    wireless is different b/c data revs are changing every quarter, but cash flow is undeniable, T and VZ have plenty; further, T and VZ are already priced for no downside. DT and S will probably merge for a commoditized big three
    Oct 27, 2009. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimate Revisions and 'The Earnings Season Racket' [View article]
    nonsense. managers and analysts underguide to avoid lawsuits, so curse the lawyers and judges, not the CEOs and analysts.

    short term, you can manipulate investors into buying stocks with a beat, but in the long term the only thing that matters is earnings; not to mention, most investors know that companies usually beat thus change their expectations. you can argue beats encourage people to buy who should not, but you cannot argue experienced investors are effected. GS was an excellent example this Q, they were priced for a higher beat, beat by the usual amount and got hammered-- fact is, investors know.

    another problem with forecasting is that you never know when GE is going to make a $1.7B loss at GECS look like BE (which will hurt earnings down the road), or when INTC is going to write off goodwill in a bad Q for tax purposes (which will boost earnings down the road).

    most importantly, analysts don't owe you anything unless you paid them, they are not public servants; an analyst is only going to tell you what to do after his customers have moved. D Bove had a brilliant comment recently, everyone wants analyses for free now, and they are getting what they paid for
    Oct 24, 2009. 01:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nouriel Roubini, One on One: More Doom and Gloom [View article]
    we are in a recession b/c we built 1.4 MILLION too many houses (no one wants them, and no needs more) and only God knows how many too-many cars at 16M a year and built up too much much personal and government debt. not MO, check the charts-- our bills are higher than our income. none of these problems were caused by expensive oil. M Roubini is a cloistered academic who consistently pushes government control. he is definitely wrong, and IMO he is dangerous because he is presented by people who want to control our lives as wise
    Oct 23, 2009. 08:49 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TriQuint Semiconductor Savaged After Hours: Another Reason Not to Game Earnings [View article]
    Mark, i have not gotten to TQNT b/c it is relatively small in my portfolio, but i will bet that the problem is competition: TXN and other smartphone chip makers guided up, so i ASSUME that TQNT is losing mkt share

    i will trade some value tomorrow, then sell out if that is indeed the case
    Oct 21, 2009. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment