Linn Energy LLC: Time To Get Bullish For 2013 And Beyond [View article]
AA
In actuality you have to look at the maximum value at risk and margin requirements/ cash trade costs to see what the best way to generate returns are.
For example. Buying the stock at 36.17 per the article your maximum value at risk would be $36.17 per share at initiation. Your cash trade costs would be $3,617 per 100 shares.
My trade had a maximum value at risk of $33.90 or $2.27 lower or 6.27% at initiation. My cash trade costs however were roughly $800 as disclosed for every 100 shares.
The only way buying the stock becomes a less risky option is by the fourth distribution/dividend payment. Which, ironically is going to be within a month or two of my option expiration. That is assuming the dividend/distributions level remains at $2.90 as well.
However the upside returns are easily in my favor since my margin requirements at initiation are only $800 versus the stocks $3,617. So if LINE were to move up to $40 in less than 30 days, I would be looking at $500 (per option value model in profits) / $800 =62.5% return versus the outright stock return of $383 / $3,617 = 10.58%
iPath S&P 500 VIX: Time To Prepare For Bearish Trading [View article]
Robert
Out of the 8 times you mention my trade losses would be less than 15% in 3 of them and every one of those 8 times mentioned, my trade would be profitable to the longer term investor.
I also mentioned the far OTM call options as a "cap" in case one of those periods were to occur and would minimize the damage.
Intel: Time To Regain Bullish Exposure Through Options [View article]
Sunny
It entirely dependent on your view of the share price and where it is going. That should be the number one criteria on any trade.
If you like PG at $65 but don't like it at $70 then I would let the assignment of shares take place (or even close it out now if there is minimal theta premium left).
If you like PG at $65 and are willing to take assignment at $65 or lower and want to maintain some type of bullish exposure, you can currently sell January 2013 $65 puts for $0.97 or so. Basically meaning you are willing to buy shares at $64 or make an additional $0.97 through January 2013. Not much of a % return though.
The Rise And Demise Of The United States Natural Gas Fund ETF [View article]
DNP
There is an exchange for storage. Its call the physical market. Go get the proper licensing and then rent some space at a storage facility and start buying physical and locking in the spread. It is not that simple nor is trading the physical market and handling everything that goes along with it. Including "crap" that can happen to your individual facility that may not impact other facilities or even HH itself.
The Rise And Demise Of The United States Natural Gas Fund ETF [View article]
No mention of contango and the upcoming rolls that UNG will roll at heavy penalty to factor into the options being the safest way? Options simply define the risk but unless your incorporating the contango rolls/spreads and possible widening of the spreads once UNG completes its roll then options willbe just as pointless.
Determine where natural gas is going to go and then apply it to what UNG owns which is X12 but will own z12 in less than a month.
Intel: Replacing The Stock In Case Of A Market Decline [View article]
INTC down to 24.77 area or roughly 8% since I wrote about it. Call spreads could be a good option now vs. butterfly spreads. Might do an article update with call side strategy to pair with this original trade.
If you buying it cheap for a view into winter, consider that basically with rollovers (they can change but as of settlement), your owning $3.43 gas today for December. You better pray we have normal weather and not warm weather in late fall/early winter.
I can safely not read the entire article for four reasons.
8/17 injection estimate of 22 8/24 injection estimate of 30 10/26 storage estimate of 3,649 11/2 storage injection at -6 draw and storage level of 3,643.
You will be so far off the mark in this regard to these four items. Your highly likely to be low by over 30% for the week of 8/17 to be reported Thursday. For weekending 8/24 you could be off by 50%. 10/26 outside of abnormal conditions (extreme heat, production disruptions without demand disruptions) your probably at least 200-300 bcf too low for the weekending.
If you think I am wrong about 8/17 or 8/24 we can firm up side bets if you like?
Linn Energy LLC: Time To Get Bullish For 2013 And Beyond [View article]
See my comment response to AA and if you have further questions shoot up a comment or private message.
Linn Energy LLC: Time To Get Bullish For 2013 And Beyond [View article]
In actuality you have to look at the maximum value at risk and margin requirements/ cash trade costs to see what the best way to generate returns are.
For example. Buying the stock at 36.17 per the article your maximum value at risk would be $36.17 per share at initiation. Your cash trade costs would be $3,617 per 100 shares.
My trade had a maximum value at risk of $33.90 or $2.27 lower or 6.27% at initiation. My cash trade costs however were roughly $800 as disclosed for every 100 shares.
The only way buying the stock becomes a less risky option is by the fourth distribution/dividend payment. Which, ironically is going to be within a month or two of my option expiration. That is assuming the dividend/distributions level remains at $2.90 as well.
However the upside returns are easily in my favor since my margin requirements at initiation are only $800 versus the stocks $3,617. So if LINE were to move up to $40 in less than 30 days, I would be looking at $500 (per option value model in profits) / $800 =62.5% return versus the outright stock return of $383 / $3,617 = 10.58%
iPath S&P 500 VIX: Time To Prepare For Bearish Trading [View article]
Out of the 8 times you mention my trade losses would be less than 15% in 3 of them and every one of those 8 times mentioned, my trade would be profitable to the longer term investor.
I also mentioned the far OTM call options as a "cap" in case one of those periods were to occur and would minimize the damage.
iPath S&P 500 VIX: Time To Prepare For Bearish Trading [View article]
I have done that strategy before but I liked the 1:2 call ratio approach a bit better given the March expiry.
UNG: Closing Out The Fall Bear Trade [View article]
UNG: Closing Out The Fall Bear Trade [View article]
UNG: Closing Out The Fall Bear Trade [View article]
As for production, we have been at all time record highs this fall.
As for demand, demand is still highly dependent on the weather.
Not a bear but neither am I all that bullish either.
Intel: Time To Regain Bullish Exposure Through Options [View article]
It entirely dependent on your view of the share price and where it is going. That should be the number one criteria on any trade.
If you like PG at $65 but don't like it at $70 then I would let the assignment of shares take place (or even close it out now if there is minimal theta premium left).
If you like PG at $65 and are willing to take assignment at $65 or lower and want to maintain some type of bullish exposure, you can currently sell January 2013 $65 puts for $0.97 or so. Basically meaning you are willing to buy shares at $64 or make an additional $0.97 through January 2013. Not much of a % return though.
The Rise And Demise Of The United States Natural Gas Fund ETF [View article]
There is an exchange for storage. Its call the physical market. Go get the proper licensing and then rent some space at a storage facility and start buying physical and locking in the spread. It is not that simple nor is trading the physical market and handling everything that goes along with it. Including "crap" that can happen to your individual facility that may not impact other facilities or even HH itself.
The Rise And Demise Of The United States Natural Gas Fund ETF [View article]
Determine where natural gas is going to go and then apply it to what UNG owns which is X12 but will own z12 in less than a month.
Intel: Replacing The Stock In Case Of A Market Decline [View article]
Intel: Replacing The Stock In Case Of A Market Decline [View article]
Will Natural Gas Fall Below $2.50? [View article]
If you buying it cheap for a view into winter, consider that basically with rollovers (they can change but as of settlement), your owning $3.43 gas today for December. You better pray we have normal weather and not warm weather in late fall/early winter.
Will Natural Gas Fall Below $2.50? [View article]
8/17 injection estimate of 22
8/24 injection estimate of 30
10/26 storage estimate of 3,649
11/2 storage injection at -6 draw and storage level of 3,643.
You will be so far off the mark in this regard to these four items.
Your highly likely to be low by over 30% for the week of 8/17 to be reported Thursday.
For weekending 8/24 you could be off by 50%.
10/26 outside of abnormal conditions (extreme heat, production disruptions without demand disruptions) your probably at least 200-300 bcf too low for the weekending.
If you think I am wrong about 8/17 or 8/24 we can firm up side bets if you like?
Intel: Replacing The Stock In Case Of A Market Decline [View article]