Xavier Alvarado

Xavier Alvarado
Contributor since: 2012
Good piece, but missing the point if you ask me. You don't apply the rules of basketball to baseball; nor value an infrastructure (btb) company as you would a consumer discretionaly Co. Main argument is how much dough is sdrl getting from this capex, or better yet, how does ROIC compares to cost of debt. Or how is the maturity profile compares to backlog.
great article Aswath! thanks for the hard work --again
good luck on your shorts! wouldn't like to be on your shoes right now.
don't sell the ranch Michael! remember prices can remain irrational longer than a short can remain solvent. Reading your past posts, you're probably down quite a bit! My recognition for your perseverance.
Keep up the good work! thanks for your article
Thanks for your comment. I used company reports for the lump numbers and adjusted for 'current portion' of debt.
Good article Herve, although too exposed to the German market, I believe the ex-EU (~35% of total) sales growth will more than compensate for the drop. Best
Rokony don't mid this article... it is a classic example of a phony analyst that learned to use a statistical tool without knowing what it was designed for. Remember the maxim "garbage in garbage out"."
... and you claim to have a Phd in physics???
quick numbers... I have 12 in a choppy market with growth coming only from the wireless products
how can you get a valuation of $245MM with $32M gain + $$ expectations? I only see those in the penny stock arena. Good luck on your gamble
Good article Tradevestor, thanks... lacking other ratios to value growth, I agree that the PEG ratio is a good data point for the analysis. I also see that the stock is trading on the lower bound given the growth potential in an infant Chinese market with an early stage adoption pattern + the absence of Google. BUY
I don't buy your analysis Ashraf... Remember who bought the lower priced Zune? nobody --I can't remember anyone- despite being a cool device doing the same trick an selling for a lower price. Pricing models need to take into account Economic Value to Customers not cost plus pricing. Apple has been great at that. Why should you kill your brand margins? moreover whats the benefit of going after lower tier brands? Should Mercedez Benz go after Subaru? I don't see the value in that
Good job! this are monies generated and kept inside the company thus should definitely add up to the company valuation. Meaningful issue for AAPL's reporting standards. Specially in the liabilities side...
"castles in the sky" investing my friend... good luck to you!
Great article Gestalt, thanks for sharing. I would only add that profitability margins have been improving as CMG plays into economies of scale. Pre-tax margin grew from 8.25% in 2006 to 15.5% last year, a CAGR of nearly 10% per year. Company has great liquidity position, and unlike tech companies, the success of cmg burritos don't go obsolete. I do like the stock more at the 28 P/E, although foresee it will trade on QoQ growth for the foreseeable future. Maybe a full fledge international expansion could bring back the "castles in the sky" investors.
Great article John, thanks for sharing your experience and keeping the ball rolling. I remember you called AONE demise early in the year... Q: do you think the patent portfolio holds any residual value? I read that Wanxian Group is still persuing acquiring all of A123 --not only the automotive assets as JCI. I'm one of those dreamers that believe fossil fuel remains too dirty for the future, and would like to jump into an electric car that gives us +100 mile per charge.
I agree with all of you. Mr. Einhorn's thinking might be on the right track, although I doubt he has ever tried both burritos. Totally different stuff for a totally different market.
Smart phone penetration in the developed world is around 50%. Smart phone industry has begun to consolidate. Even if iPhone growth in the coming years lags android, this leaves AAPL with enough room to grow in the mid-teens order. Their current PE is around 15 (trailing last 12 months) and not considering Q3 sales which surprised. Current price is another example of gray area, but falls within the brackets for a mature company, in a maturing industry -- my view.
How powerful, the SEC should keep an eye on you... "I decided to drill down on the company with the article, "Molycorp And 'The Pain Ahead," which apparently caused a double digit decline in the stock" --Are you serious?
should EU do that, they'll end up with an increasing healthcare overhead as in the US... not the best path in my view.
Just like that... no PEG analysis (even at below 1)? user base/growth? revenue projections? relative valuation? industry P/Es/ROEs? --another circus stock analyst
Jeff, good job on your debt analysis. however, your WACC calculations are off; the cost of debt for BP is 1.39% and the cost of equity is more around 11%. A 5-ish WACC is not even seen in JNJ (AAA/Aaa).
good contribution... My view is that the cell phone market will grow under a consolidated mode: android and ios. Google apps can be used on both, even google maps http://bit.ly/UrOPdM I have a samsung galaxy and my wife has an iphone 4, but we use all the time the google aps -they are great. From an strategic standpoint, google has the lead in information while Apple on hardware, both might be even in brand loyalty. No need to call a winner for now as innovation is still coming from both.
Good article Kofi, thank you. The most sensible assumption to AAPL price is then iPhone 5 sales (http://bit.ly/P37RGk); given the other products sales remain flat, a $800 valuation for 2013 seems within the brackets, therefore feasible.
John, your appraoch reminds me of the early fixed line vs cell phone debate... Different structual benefits, similar technological hurdles, profitability paths, adoption rates, afordability, etc... Who's going to be the big player in the EV, battery plays? too soon to know but so far A123 has the cheapest technology per kwh. IHI Japan and GE are shareholders --they might know something about technology. About valuations? too many moving parts. The reality behind present debate and surge of alternative powertrains lies behind oil prices, demand outpacing supply (China, India, Latam)...