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Xiaofan Zhang

 
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  • YY: Q2 Earnings Review
    Thu, Aug. 14 YY 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Chinese online social platform YY Inc. (NASDAQ:YY) reported strong 2Q14 results on August 6.
    • YY's top-line outperformance in the quarter was primarily driven by its online music and entertainment business.
    • In addition to strong revenue growth, YY achieved significant margin expansion in the quarter thanks to strong operating leverage.
    • Looking ahead, management noted online game broadcasting and online dating as two new growth drivers.
    • I estimate a fair value of $107.45 per share for YY's stock, and believe investors should buy YY's stock at current levels.
  • Ctrip: Q2 Earnings Review
    Fri, Aug. 8 CTRP Comment!

    Summary

    • Ctrip reported mixed 2Q14 results: revenue beat both consensus and guidance, while EPS fell sharply year-over-year.
    • The 2Q revenue beat was primarily driven by strong growth in the company's two largest business segments: accommodation reservation and transportation ticketing.
    • The decrease in net income was largely due to non-GAAP operating margin declining 13 percentage points to 12% in 2Q14 from 25% in 2Q13.
    • I believe investors should wait on the sidelines for Ctrip's stock.
  • Sohu: Q2 Earnings Review
    Tue, Aug. 5 SOHU Comment!

    Summary

    • Sohu.com reported mixed 2Q14 results on July 28: revenue missed Wall Street consensus, while EPS beat the consensus.
    • Investor focus has now shifted to Sohu's Sogou unit because of its impressive revenue growth and consecutive profitability.
    • Although Sogou's growth was impressive in 2Q14, the guided companywide net loss for Q3 and management's comments during the earnings call indicate that Sohu as a whole is still in spending mode.
    • I believe investors should wait on the sidelines for Sohu's stock.
  • Changyou Q2 Earnings Review
    Fri, Aug. 1 CYOU 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Changyou reported mixed 2Q14 results on July 28. Revenues missed consensus due to weakness in TLBB, while earnings beat on scaling back expenses.
    • Changyou guided negative net income for 3Q14. The company's recent investment in mobile browser developer MoboTap confirms that it is still in a spending mode in search of future growth.
    • I believe investors should wait on the sidelines for Changyou's stock.
  • A Preview Of Changyou's Q2 '14 Earnings Report
    Wed, Jul. 16 CYOU 2 Comments

    Summary

    • I expect Changyou to report total revenues of $189 million and a net loss of $23.6 million and EPS of -$0.45 for 2Q '14.
    • Investors should focus on Changyou's game platform when the company reports 2Q '14 results. A clear plan to significantly increase platform-related revenues will boost investors' confidence.
    • Flagship game TLBB received an expansion pack in Q1. Updates on this expansion pack will indicate whether TLBB is still a stable source of cash flow for Changyou.
  • What To Look For In Baidu's Q2 2014 Earnings Report
    Sat, Jul. 12 BIDU Comment!

    Summary

    • Mobile search is the most important area for investors to watch. The most important operating metric in this area is daily active mobile search users.
    • Profit margins are the second most important area. It will be a positive sign for Baidu's stock if net margin in Q2 '14 comes in higher than 23.8%.
    • Baidu's Consumer Products business is the third most important area deserving investors' attention. This emerging business line includes games, music, online literature and social.
  • Key Things To Watch In Baidu's Q1 '14 Earnings Report
    Tue, Apr. 22 BIDU 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Mobile search is now Baidu's strategic focus. Investors should pay special attention to updated metrics on mobile revenue contribution and user base of Baidu's mobile apps.
    • Baidu's 2014 guidance implies net margin will shrink by 10.6 percentage points this year. Q1 '14 profit margins should be compared with Q1 '13 numbers to evaluate whether Baidu outperforms this guidance.
    • Investors should also look for updates on location-based services, consumer products, and international operations.
  • What Can We Learn From Weibo's Updated IPO Prospectus?
    Tue, Apr. 1 SINA, WB 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Weibo has selected NASDAQ as the stock exchange to list its shares and picked "WB" as its ticker symbol.
    • Weibo has selected Ms. Bonnie Yi Zhang as its Chief Financial Officer.
    • Weibo expects sequential decline in revenues and a net loss in 1Q14.
    • The updated prospectus added exceptions to the non-competition agreement between Weibo and SINA.
  • What Can We Learn From Baidu's Latest 20-F Filing
    Mon, Mar. 31 BIDU 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Baidu's number of paid clicks grew 32.7% year-over-year.
    • Sales and marketing headcount recorded the biggest annual growth in six years.
    • Baidu plans to add five more data centers in 2014.
  • An Analysis Of Sina Weibo's IPO Prospectus
    Fri, Mar. 28 SINA 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Sina Weibo is an Internet marketing platform in China that uses its users' social content and social interest to generate revenues and income from online advertising customers.
    • Weibo’s innovative usage of “feed” helps differentiate it from other social networking services.
    • Weibo has clealy identified the mobile platform as its strategic focus. The next wave of Weibo’s user growth will primarily come from moblie handset users in China’s second-and-third-tier cities.
  • Is Weixin A Competitor Of Sina Weibo?
    Tue, Mar. 25 SINA 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Sina Weibo clearly does not view Weixin as a direct competitor. In Weibo's 137K-word IPO prospectus, Weixin was only mentioned once.
    • This "Social Media vs. Social Network" theory clearly defined Weibo's target market in a sophisticated way. It will alleviate many investors' concerns over whether Weibo can defend its own territory.
    • Weixin does compete with Weibo on certain occasions. The battle between Weibo and Weixin continues after the IPO, where both services (apps) compete fiercely to stay on users' smartphone screens.
  • Did Tencent Just Let Sina Dunk Over Its Head?
    Sun, Mar. 23 SINA 11 Comments

    Summary

    • As Sina's social media subsidiary Sina Weibo marches toward its $500 million IPO, it has just acquired the most important new user in its history - Tencent.
    • Tencent's usage of Sina Weibo highlights Weibo's core value and provides fuel for its IPO engine, reminding me of Dwight Howard letting Nate Robinson dunk over his head in 2009.
    • For any institutional investor having a hard time understanding Sina Weibo's value, Tencent's campaign serves as a vivid and convincing endorsement.
    • Tencent's move also shows strong self-confidence and implies an ambitious vision, foreshadowing fierce competition in China's social networking industry.
    • While enjoying the short-term publicity boost provided by Tencent, Sina Weibo should understand that its top priority is to avoid being marginalized by Weixin.
  • China Internet Stocks: December Review
    Jan. 5, 2012 NCTY, TCEHY, GA Comment!
  • China Internet Stocks: November Review
    Dec. 7, 2011 RENN, DANG, KUTV 2 Comments
  • China Internet Stocks: October Review
    Nov. 8, 2011 DANG, RENN, BIDU 1 Comment
  • Baidu: 3 Focal Points For Q3 Earnings
    Oct. 27, 2011 BIDU 1 Comment
  • Baidu: History Shows Investors Should Be Cautious Ahead Of 3Q11 Earnings
    Oct. 26, 2011 BIDU 2 Comments
  • China Internet Stocks: September Review
    Oct. 5, 2011 SINA, DANG, TUDO Comment!
  • Sina: Shares Attractive In The Short-Term
    Sep. 23, 2011 SINA Comment!
  • New Game XT To Sustain Giant's Growth In Q4
    Sep. 8, 2011 GA 3 Comments
  • A Performance Review Of China Internet Stocks For August
    Sep. 7, 2011 RENN, TAOM, SINA 1 Comment
  • How China Internet Stocks Performed in July
    Aug. 8, 2011 TAOM, NQ, DATE Comment!
  • Where Baidu Is Heading After 2Q11
    Jul. 28, 2011 BIDU 1 Comment
  • Baidu: History Shows Investors Should Be Optimistic About Q2 Earnings
    Jul. 25, 2011 BIDU 2 Comments
  • Baidu: 2Q11 Earnings Preview
    Jul. 25, 2011 BIDU Comment!
  • A Performance Review of China Internet Stocks for June
    Jul. 7, 2011 RENN, TCEHY, SINA 20 Comments
  • Sina: Investors Should Be Cautiously Optimistic
    Jun. 24, 2011 SINA 12 Comments
  • A Performance Review of China Internet Stocks for May
    Jun. 8, 2011 RENN, NQ, DATE 5 Comments
  • A Performance Review of China Internet Stocks for April
    May. 5, 2011 KUTV, SNDA, YOKU 4 Comments
  • Baidu: What to Watch for in Wednesday's 1st-Q Earnings Release
    Apr. 26, 2011 BIDU Comment!
  • Baidu: Why I'm Expecting Solid Q1 Results and Strong Growth in Q2
    Apr. 25, 2011 BIDU 3 Comments
  • Baidu: History Shows Investors Should Be Optimistic About Q1 Earnings
    Apr. 21, 2011 BIDU 12 Comments