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Xiaofan Zhang  

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  • Baidu: Solid Q3 Driven By Mobile Revenue And Operating Margin [View article]
    Baidu's Search Revenue = Revenue Per Pageview X Total Pageviews. Although I expect revenue growth to moderate in the long term due to larger base, I do think Revenue Per Pageview will likely go up in 2015. This will partially offset, but not more than offset, the downward pressure on revenue growth created by bigger revenue base.

    I think Revenue per Pageview will go up because based on management's comments on the earnings call, Baidu could have shown more ads to its mobile users but chose not to do so. As Baidu solidifies its mobile search market share and gains more knowledge on mobile users' ads viewing preferences, it will show more ads to users, leading to increased Revenue Per Pageview. I expect this to happen sometime in 2015, partially offset the downward pressure on revenue growth created by bigger revenue base. This is part of the reason why I forecast Baidu to achieve 47.5% Y/Y revenue growth in 2015.

    I still expect revenue growth to moderate in the long term because I think there is an upper limit on how many ads a mobile user can tolerate on a single screen. Baidu cannot indefinitely raise the number of ads per mobile pageview in the future. Therefore, in the long term, I do not expect showing more mobile ads will more than offset the effect of bigger revenue base. For Baidu's revenue growth to accelerate in the long run, other significant sources of revenues have to be created or acquired.
    Nov 6, 2014. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • YY: Q2 Earnings Review [View article]
    Investors were re-allocating their money in preparation for the Alibaba IPO.
    Sep 16, 2014. 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • YY: Q2 Earnings Review [View article]
    "Each ADS represents 20 Class A common shares" (Source:
    Aug 20, 2014. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • YY: Q2 Earnings Review [View article]
    This risk is low.
    Aug 14, 2014. 02:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Changyou Q2 Earnings Review [View article]
    I expect them to stay independent at least for the next several years.
    Aug 4, 2014. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Preview Of Changyou's Q2 '14 Earnings Report [View article]
    This investment was made to control Dolphin Browser, a Web browser for mobile devices. Browsing webpages on mobile devices and playing video games are two very different activities, so the MoboTap investment is not directly related to Changyou's game platform. Changyou may potentially choose to use Dolphin Browser to promote its game platform, thus making this deal indirectly related to its game platform. The acquisition of MoboTap shows Changyou is diversifying its business lines. Previously it was a video game company which primarily used the Internet to serve video gamers. Now it has entered the general mobile Internet space through acquiring a popular mobile browser.
    Jul 18, 2014. 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Can We Learn From Weibo's Updated IPO Prospectus? [View article]
    The numbers on page 14 and 16 are the same: 1002, 1837, 31242. The difference between page 16 and page F-7 (31242 vs. 4105) may be because a portion of the stock-based compensation was included in the "Cash flows from financing activities" section instead of the "Cash flows from operating activities" section.
    Apr 1, 2014. 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Can We Learn From Baidu's Latest 20-F Filing [View article]
    The 20-F data implies that "91 Wireless + PPStream" was more sales-oriented than Baidu prior to these two acquisitions.
    Mar 31, 2014. 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Can We Learn From Baidu's Latest 20-F Filing [View article]
    The increase in Sales and Marketing headcount is largely attributable to the acquisitions of 91 Wireless and the online video business of PPStream Inc. in 2013.
    Mar 31, 2014. 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Analysis Of Sina Weibo's IPO Prospectus [View article]
    Why does Weibo try to redefine "feed", instead of using "message" or "update" to describe a single piece of content created by its users? I believe the reason is Weibo does not want investors to confuse itself with other message-based social networking services.

    In its IPO prospectus, Weibo defined itself as a "social media", and defined Facebook and Tencent's Weixin as "social networks and messengers": "Social media platforms, such as Weibo, combine microblogging and social networking features and are public in nature ... On the other hand, social networks and messengers, such as Tencent Qzone and Weixin, connect users by allowing friends and families to communicate and interact within a primarily private network." (Source: Weibo IPO prospectus)

    This chart in the prospectus has visualized this "Social Media vs. Social Network" theory:

    I believe this unique theory has laid out a clear and promising road map for Weibo. But investors need to monitor closely whether Weibo has the discipline and execution capacity to stick to this game plan and maintain its uniqueness in the future.
    Mar 28, 2014. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Weixin A Competitor Of Sina Weibo? [View article]
    Although Weixin was only mentioned once in Weibo's IPO prospectus, "WeChat", Weixin's English name, was actually mentioned twice. For example:

    "In addition, as a form of social media featuring social networking services and messaging services, we are subject to intense competition from providers of similar services as well as potential new types of online services, including interest-based social products. These services include mobile applications, such as WhatsApp, Line, Ozone, WeChat, QQ Mobile, Kakao Talk, Yixin, Laiwang, Douban and Momo, and websites, such as" (Source: Weibo's IPO prospectus
    Mar 26, 2014. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Weixin A Competitor Of Sina Weibo? [View article]
    I think what hurt SINA's stock price the most was the conclusions made by mainstream media based on the CNNIC report. For example, this is the conclusion made in a article (

    "Though it is unclear what the numbers mean for the number of users on the two companies' microblogs, it is a strong indication that users are continuing to shift from Weibo to social-media platforms used on smartphones. In particular, over the past two years Tencent's WeChat messaging service has grown quickly in popularity."

    The CNNIC report said total number of microblog users declined 9% year-over-year in China. I think Sina should report the total number of Sina Weibo users every quarter in their earnings releases. Investors can then use Sina's official numbers to make investment decisions, instead of relying on third-party numbers that describe the whole microblog industry.
    Mar 26, 2014. 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Weixin A Competitor Of Sina Weibo? [View article]
    Sina's stock has fallen for various reasons.

    This report by China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC) was a big, direct factor:

    Then, news report such as this one added fuel to the fire:

    But ultimately Sina Weibo has met serious challenges from Weixin in new user acquisitions:

    On your second question, currently Weibo and Weixin are not in a large-scale battle for advertisers. On one hand, Weibo's IPO prospectus shows it has positioned itself very differently from Weixin (Figure 1 in this article). On the other hand, Weixin currently does not view advertising as the focus of its monetization. It has been busy making money from other value-added services. When these two services compete more directly for advertisers, we will be able to see which platform is a better fit for advertisers. But now, Weixin is just not participating much in this contest.

    The current competition between Weibo and Weixin mainly takes place on iOS and Android platforms. The goal for both companies is for their own apps to be on the first screen of users' smartphones (ideally on the dock).
    Mar 25, 2014. 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Tencent Just Let Sina Dunk Over Its Head? [View article]
    To IamHopeful2:

    My thoughts on whether Weixin and Weibo are competitors:

    There are two ways for a user to conduct social networking activities: mobile and non-mobile.

    On the mobile side, Weixin and Weibo are direct competitors - for example, if a user has just taken an interesting picture and wants to share it with friends, both Weixin and Weibo have this feature.

    On the non-mobile side, Sina Weibo's website ( has much more features than Weixin's website ( This is their major difference and the reason why some people think these two services are apples and oranges.

    Nowadays most of the social networking activities take place on the mobile side, in the form of smartphone users operating their handsets to interact with friends and families. Therefore, what really matters for Weibo and Weixin is on the mobile side, where these two services are direct competitors. What happens on the non-mobile side really does not have much impact on who wins this two-horse race in China's SNS industry.

    This is similar to how experts evaluate NFL quarterbacks: what matters most is what they do "inside the pocket", not outside of it.
    Mar 23, 2014. 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Tencent Just Let Sina Dunk Over Its Head? [View article]
    Good question. Sina Weibo does not have a Weixin account now. But Weixin does have a Sina Weibo account:
    Mar 23, 2014. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment