Pricing A Highly Probable Takeover Of MannKind [View article]
Deja - a couple misleading points: 1. Hypoglycemia risk is very low with Afrezza. This was shown very well in the first studies. That was one reason the FDA allowed them to structure this study the way they did. 2. You correctly note that several insulins may be needed to control a diabetic. Conisider someone on a long acting insulin shot (AM/PM) who then carries around an inhaler in their purse for short insulin doses. The portability is better and for many types of people may be safer. 3. Yes, some DM1s comfortable with needles will not switch over - but you are not considering the "new" insulin diabetic market. I.e. teenagers or DM2s who go from orals to needing insulin for control. They may not be as comfortable with needles and may prefer an inhalable product.
Ultimately, this market is so big that they can make this a blockbuster drug with a relatively small penetration of the worldwide diabetic market.
Steel Price Under Tremendous Pressure In Europe [View article]
Oh, I know. You have a great track record; I always enjoy your articles Paulo. And, I didn't want to invest in steel in January 2012.
But, now - in May 2013 (with steel stock prices where they are are now) are you recommending to buy steel or short, or perhaps just stay away?
And, if so, do you think the overall market can continue rising without cyclical/commodity participation?
My overall thesis is that this sector has headwinds - but, many of these have been priced in. And, MT - in the context of the broader market which is much more aggressively valued - represents a good place to put money now.
I didn't start buying until around $14 and lower. But, I did add aggressively at and below $12. I think MT is worth at least $17+ which is considerable % upside with a continuing 1.5% divy.
Steel Price Under Tremendous Pressure In Europe [View article]
Interesting article.
Yes, steel is a difficult industry. Yes, there are many smaller and higher cost companies that will no doubt suffer or even go under. Yes, the china steel issues are important to consider.
But, much of this is already priced in to various steel equities. These are not new issues. This recent downturn in steel prices, for example was what took MT from $18 in January to $11.50 in April.
Some of these companies are weak and have further to fall. But, I think larger companies like MT are globally diversified, in growing markets (brazil), and have stock prices which have already been crushed. Also, they actually stand to benefit from smaller companies going under and removing global capacity. And, MT is clearly putting their financial house in order as evidenced at their latest Q conference call.
This may be a 2 year time horizon investment. But, when you look at the overall market - and are choosing to put new money to work, these laggard companies are the place to do it.
Red - your comment implies you see no correlation between page views and clicks. That's clearly to true. Tumblr can become a great asset for someone, assuming yahoo doesn't ruin it.
ArcelorMittal Reports Q1 Loss But Maintains Full-Year Projections [View article]
Lol TwistTie.
I continue to be surprised that people think the market can continue to head higher without participation of materials/cyclicals. Cyclicals have just started to outperform defensive names in the past month. Materials have come up off the bottom. If the economy really is showing signs of life and the market is going to continue to head higher, then stocks like MT will play catch up.
Correct. If they strip Dimon of a portion of his current role he wants to leave he would be hired by a huge bank or banking enterprise (like Blackstone) for a very high profile job within the day. Would be stupid decision by JPM.
Wow. This thread is full of truly stupid comments.
The presence of a great leader does not mean that they have not developed a "bench to manage the firm".
Steve Jobs had a great bench of talent, but his death certainly hurt AAPL. Warren Buffet has been recruiting top talent for years but he will be hard to replace. Dimon - unique among mega bank CEOs - managed to position and steer JPM through the financial crisis. He is a unique bank CEO for a number of reasons.
I don't think JPM needs Jamie Dimon to succeed, but they are certainly better off with him.
MannKind's Afrezza Likely To Easily Gain Approval [View article]
Pete - I'm a physician and spend some time working in a research lab that attempted the creation of beta-islet cells which would be glucose responsive and could be implanted and would self replicate (glucose responsive insulin secreters aka bioartifical pancreas). This was 8-10 years ago. The work was published several times and received good press.
My point is that there are many possible breakthrough treatments and treatment ideas at the subclinical levels (mice, early human trials, etc). The vast majority of these will never progress to even advanced human trials let alone the marketplace.
ArcelorMittal: Medium-Term Trade And Long-Term Investment [View article]
Q1 earnings were released - and they look solid. Some highlights:
Paid down about 3.8 billion in debt (debt now sitting just under 18 billion). Sales of 19.8 billion (I had hoped for above 20). EBITDA was 1.57 billion!! That was great! Much better than expected.
Most importantly MT affirms it will do EBITDA of about 7.1 billion for the year 2013. Incidentally that compares to a current market cap of 20 billion and an enterprise value of 38 billion.
Is Now The Time To Buy ArcelorMittal? [View article]
"it might hit the late teens by the end of the year"
You realize if it gets to 18 or 19 thats greater then 50% return. I'm in for the long term but I would certainly sell a portion of my position at those levels.
And, at that return it would almost certainly out perform the overall market from this point through the end of the year.
MannKind's Afrezza Likely To Easily Gain Approval [View article]
User 6589671 - As a physician I can tell that you seem to be missing something. Two points:
1. Almost every single FDA drug in the world after approval develops a number of "off label" uses. You correctly point this out - but don't seem to understand how common or accepted it is (probably 20-25% of all med prescriptions are strictly considered off label). There is little liability in using off label drugs. Some very common examples - the majority of the so called "atypical antipsychotic" meds now are off label (they were approved as second line drugs but most are primary drugs now). About 30% of all psych drugs are off label. The vast majority of obstetrical drugs are off label. Many peds drugs are off label. These relate to quirks in the FDA approval process and drug development.
2. People "present" clinically at varying stages of TypeII DM. That is to say that some patients come in the minute they notice anything wrong, and may have "very early" type II DM or even "prediabetes" which is easily treatable with diet modification and/or Metformin or another oral drug (different endocrinologists may start people on different orals depending on their history/allergies/co-m... But, other patients may not present until very late stage DMII. They may need to be started immediately on Metformin with Afrezza, or even 2 oral agents and Afrezza.
Also - advertising is not essential in this situation. DM is not like cialis or viagra - its not a condition that people are ignoring. They NEED treatment and usually end up getting it.
Given these "real world" facts where almost every drug has multiple off-label uses and patients present clinically at hugely variable stages of disease progression and severity - it is perfectly logical to assume that when/if Afrezza becomes part of the choices in treating diabetics it will probably be used alone, with one oral, with multiple orals, and/or with injectable insulin.
Post-FDA approval it will be up to the endocrinologists to gain familiarity with it and how they intend to use it in their patient population.
ArcelorMittal: Medium-Term Trade And Long-Term Investment [View article]
Strangely again - as I was writing - a block of about 40,000 shares was purchased pushing the price up to 12.96. Stock then sold off in the next minute. It does seem like someone is accumulating shares.
ArcelorMittal: Medium-Term Trade And Long-Term Investment [View article]
Yes - very interesting action today.
Low of the day 12.44 and MT has bounced to 12.90 currently. There was a good bit of volume at 12.50-12.60 level - so there is some buying probably from a large institution or fund.
But - I agree with stockperks above; I've been disappointed that MT has not managed to break back above $13 given the overall market strength.
In good technical news - the 5 day SMA is now above the 20, and both the 5 DMA and 20 DMA are sloping up again. 50 DMA is around 13.17 which would be a reasonable upside target.
I'll keep watching - but I still feel like given the levitating market some of the "smart" money will start moving into the lagging material stocks.
Also remain hopefully that Moody's or one of the other rating agencies will act positively on the debt given the 20% reduction in debt levels since the downgrade.
Pricing A Highly Probable Takeover Of MannKind [View article]
1. Hypoglycemia risk is very low with Afrezza. This was shown very well in the first studies. That was one reason the FDA allowed them to structure this study the way they did.
2. You correctly note that several insulins may be needed to control a diabetic. Conisider someone on a long acting insulin shot (AM/PM) who then carries around an inhaler in their purse for short insulin doses. The portability is better and for many types of people may be safer.
3. Yes, some DM1s comfortable with needles will not switch over - but you are not considering the "new" insulin diabetic market. I.e. teenagers or DM2s who go from orals to needing insulin for control. They may not be as comfortable with needles and may prefer an inhalable product.
Ultimately, this market is so big that they can make this a blockbuster drug with a relatively small penetration of the worldwide diabetic market.
Steel Price Under Tremendous Pressure In Europe [View article]
But, now - in May 2013 (with steel stock prices where they are are now) are you recommending to buy steel or short, or perhaps just stay away?
And, if so, do you think the overall market can continue rising without cyclical/commodity participation?
My overall thesis is that this sector has headwinds - but, many of these have been priced in. And, MT - in the context of the broader market which is much more aggressively valued - represents a good place to put money now.
I didn't start buying until around $14 and lower. But, I did add aggressively at and below $12. I think MT is worth at least $17+ which is considerable % upside with a continuing 1.5% divy.
Steel Price Under Tremendous Pressure In Europe [View article]
Yes, steel is a difficult industry. Yes, there are many smaller and higher cost companies that will no doubt suffer or even go under. Yes, the china steel issues are important to consider.
But, much of this is already priced in to various steel equities. These are not new issues. This recent downturn in steel prices, for example was what took MT from $18 in January to $11.50 in April.
Some of these companies are weak and have further to fall. But, I think larger companies like MT are globally diversified, in growing markets (brazil), and have stock prices which have already been crushed. Also, they actually stand to benefit from smaller companies going under and removing global capacity. And, MT is clearly putting their financial house in order as evidenced at their latest Q conference call.
This may be a 2 year time horizon investment. But, when you look at the overall market - and are choosing to put new money to work, these laggard companies are the place to do it.
Long MT
Yahoo's (YHOO) board has approved a $1.1B all-cash deal to acquire Tumblr, the WSJ reports. (previous) [View news story]
ArcelorMittal Reports Q1 Loss But Maintains Full-Year Projections [View article]
I continue to be surprised that people think the market can continue to head higher without participation of materials/cyclicals. Cyclicals have just started to outperform defensive names in the past month. Materials have come up off the bottom. If the economy really is showing signs of life and the market is going to continue to head higher, then stocks like MT will play catch up.
ArcelorMittal Reports Q1 Loss But Maintains Full-Year Projections [View article]
Would have been nice to know if you thought that the first Q results were going to cause an upward or downward revision in your price target.
Jamie Dimon is threatening to leave JPMorgan (JPM) if stripped of the Chairman role, sources say. [View news story]
Jamie Dimon is threatening to leave JPMorgan (JPM) if stripped of the Chairman role, sources say. [View news story]
Jamie Dimon is threatening to leave JPMorgan (JPM) if stripped of the Chairman role, sources say. [View news story]
The presence of a great leader does not mean that they have not developed a "bench to manage the firm".
Steve Jobs had a great bench of talent, but his death certainly hurt AAPL. Warren Buffet has been recruiting top talent for years but he will be hard to replace. Dimon - unique among mega bank CEOs - managed to position and steer JPM through the financial crisis. He is a unique bank CEO for a number of reasons.
I don't think JPM needs Jamie Dimon to succeed, but they are certainly better off with him.
MannKind's Afrezza Likely To Easily Gain Approval [View article]
My point is that there are many possible breakthrough treatments and treatment ideas at the subclinical levels (mice, early human trials, etc). The vast majority of these will never progress to even advanced human trials let alone the marketplace.
ArcelorMittal: Medium-Term Trade And Long-Term Investment [View article]
Some highlights:
Paid down about 3.8 billion in debt (debt now sitting just under 18 billion). Sales of 19.8 billion (I had hoped for above 20). EBITDA was 1.57 billion!! That was great! Much better than expected.
Most importantly MT affirms it will do EBITDA of about 7.1 billion for the year 2013. Incidentally that compares to a current market cap of 20 billion and an enterprise value of 38 billion.
Is Now The Time To Buy ArcelorMittal? [View article]
You realize if it gets to 18 or 19 thats greater then 50% return. I'm in for the long term but I would certainly sell a portion of my position at those levels.
And, at that return it would almost certainly out perform the overall market from this point through the end of the year.
MannKind's Afrezza Likely To Easily Gain Approval [View article]
1. Almost every single FDA drug in the world after approval develops a number of "off label" uses. You correctly point this out - but don't seem to understand how common or accepted it is (probably 20-25% of all med prescriptions are strictly considered off label). There is little liability in using off label drugs. Some very common examples - the majority of the so called "atypical antipsychotic" meds now are off label (they were approved as second line drugs but most are primary drugs now). About 30% of all psych drugs are off label. The vast majority of obstetrical drugs are off label. Many peds drugs are off label. These relate to quirks in the FDA approval process and drug development.
2. People "present" clinically at varying stages of TypeII DM. That is to say that some patients come in the minute they notice anything wrong, and may have "very early" type II DM or even "prediabetes" which is easily treatable with diet modification and/or Metformin or another oral drug (different endocrinologists may start people on different orals depending on their history/allergies/co-m... But, other patients may not present until very late stage DMII. They may need to be started immediately on Metformin with Afrezza, or even 2 oral agents and Afrezza.
Also - advertising is not essential in this situation. DM is not like cialis or viagra - its not a condition that people are ignoring. They NEED treatment and usually end up getting it.
Given these "real world" facts where almost every drug has multiple off-label uses and patients present clinically at hugely variable stages of disease progression and severity - it is perfectly logical to assume that when/if Afrezza becomes part of the choices in treating diabetics it will probably be used alone, with one oral, with multiple orals, and/or with injectable insulin.
Post-FDA approval it will be up to the endocrinologists to gain familiarity with it and how they intend to use it in their patient population.
ArcelorMittal: Medium-Term Trade And Long-Term Investment [View article]
ArcelorMittal: Medium-Term Trade And Long-Term Investment [View article]
Low of the day 12.44 and MT has bounced to 12.90 currently. There was a good bit of volume at 12.50-12.60 level - so there is some buying probably from a large institution or fund.
But - I agree with stockperks above; I've been disappointed that MT has not managed to break back above $13 given the overall market strength.
In good technical news - the 5 day SMA is now above the 20, and both the 5 DMA and 20 DMA are sloping up again. 50 DMA is around 13.17 which would be a reasonable upside target.
I'll keep watching - but I still feel like given the levitating market some of the "smart" money will start moving into the lagging material stocks.
Also remain hopefully that Moody's or one of the other rating agencies will act positively on the debt given the 20% reduction in debt levels since the downgrade.