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  • Make 70% A Year With Math [View article]
    I think testing strategies against 2008 period is a like planning everything around a black swan event. Lots of good, strong strategies lost 50%+ during that period (including strong blue-chip equities). I think the only thing you can do to "prepare" for a period like that is to have additional black swan hedges as portfolio insurance - or layer these on in times of market volatility.
    May 29 04:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Snapchat Is Killing Facebook [View article]
    Wow. Obviously there are people who have no understanding of social media, including FB, TWTR, and Snapchat.

    Consider media as one unit. Humans have a portion of time they spend on media consumption (internet, social media, TV, newspapers, etc). Social media has grown this number of hours. Ad dollars are following these eye-balls from TV and newspapers to FB, GOOG, TWTR, etc.

    Its really that simple. There will be many winners in the "new media" war - the losers relative to 2 decades ago will be "old media".

    And, in reference to some posters above - snapchat has a ton of users, and I know many people between 15 and 25 who use it frequently. Same with instagram, which should become for FB what YouTube is for GOOG.
    Dec 27 12:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuance Communications: Buying The Bottom? [View article]
    Owned this stock for much of the past 3 years - and every time they promise to streamline operations and stop acquiring companies (before they can digest prior acquisitions) they fail to execute. This could be a $30 stock if not for management. Will be interesting to see what Icahn plans.
    Dec 24 10:02 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Twitter's Fair Value [View article]
    Redrut - that's like asking why insiders sold FB at $30 last August. Yet, the stock has returned 50% since then...

    The adage that "insiders sell for many reasons, but only buy for one" is true. These are people who have the majority of their net worth in Twitter and NEED to diversify.

    Hard to conclude anything about the short, medium, or long term viability of the stock from those actions.
    Nov 25 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rumored iPhablets Expected In 2014 Will Not Save Apple's Bacon [View article]
    "If they do, I would expect each sale of an iPhablet would come at the cost of an iPhone and very likely an iPad as well."

    Oh my. This is a loaded statement. There will be some canablization of mini tablets and phones by iPhablets, but there will be a component of growth as well.

    For example: A women I work with uses a Note, but would switch to an iPhablet if one came out. She would be an added customer, while my mom would switch from her IPhone 5S to an iPhablet if available.
    Nov 19 04:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Is Highly Overvalued [View article]
    Ok, I agree that the MAU growth will have to remain strong for sometime. But, I think it will. TWTR undisputedly a very strong international and mobile presence - both will help drive moderate to long term continuation of substantial MAU number growth. The % MAU growth will continue to slow as the number nears and passes 500 million.

    This strong international and mobile presence will also drive TWTR as a unique platform to monetize. Like with FBs mobile growth (the speed of which apparently surprised wall street), I think people will be very surprised by the revenue growth that TWTR will be able to put up when it focuses its attention on rev growth. There are many unique options for monetization of this service.

    So, is it a valuation play now? NO. Will it drop to the 30s? Maybe. Does it have a place in a long term diversified portfolio. My opinion is YES.
    Nov 18 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter: A Top Too Soon [View article]
    I agree with the article to some extent regarding the FB comparison: I bought FB shortly after the IPO at $34. I added at $28. I doubled the position at $20. Now it is a very profitable position, and a long term hold for me.

    I bought TWTR at $44. If it drops I will add more. The stock may correct in the short term - but, as people have mentioned, this will be a HUGE user base and with its international use, and penetration into culture, it will become a good platform by which to reach mobile users in the coming year.
    Nov 17 11:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple reportedly ups 5S output by 75%, cuts 5C output by 35% [View news story]
    This makes sense! Cannot find a 5s anywhere in my area - sold out at best buy, AT&T stores, and both local AAPL stores.
    Oct 18 08:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Clear Message From Nuance [View article]
    Powerscribe 360 - one of nuances new flagship medical voice recognition products - is incredibly powerful. Much more advanced that comparable products, although admittedly not a consumer level product.
    Aug 30 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Multi-Asset ETFs vs. Individual ETFs [View article]
    Ok obviously Im a little late to reading this article - but there are not so many CVY articles.

    The performance of the ETF seems pretty good, and the income stream is decent. I will note that their payments are variable as the underlying asset income is variable.

    Also, comparisons to 2008 are very difficult: basically ALL asset classes plunged in 2008. People became terrified and only wanted to hold cash, so it is hard in my mind to claim that if a security dropped in 2008 it was not diversified. During panics, sometimes the correlation of multiple asset classes increases to nearly 1.

    Anyways - I like CVY and have started a small position just to keep an eye on it.
    Aug 25 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Can It Still Explode Higher? [View article]
    I will preface this comment by saying I was a long time BBRY user and stockholder.

    I walked into a phone store in a mall in north Atlanta last week (a mall catering to younger clients), wanting to browse new phone options for AT&T.

    A chatty saleswomen came over and started pointing out the new phones / features. I looked at the BBRY (no keyboard) and asked about it. She said the employees thought it was a good phone, but that she had only sold 5 since launch! 5!

    By way of volume comparison, she noted usually selling that many Samsungs and iPhones each day.

    Ugh. The mishandling of the product cycle during and after the launch of BB7 will make a great business school case-study one day.
    Aug 25 02:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why LinkedIn Will Be A $300 Stock This Time Next Year [View article]
    Sorry to hear that mark. Shorts are tough on these stocks - but it was impossible for you to know it would not follow through on the downside after selling off.

    I think your trade at this point depends on how long you can hold. I do think lnkd will dip at some point - probably refilling this earnings gap, but it certainly could climb to 250 first... So it's up to you if you want to cover in the morning if it dips a little from the high, or hold for weeks/months...
    Aug 1 11:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ArcelorMittal: The Reversal Is Coming [View article]
    Have to give you kudos on this article - it was almost perfectly timed!

    For the record: Stock bottomed on June 24 and again on July 3 ($11.06), and has since bounced very nicely ($13.06 today). That's 18% in one month!

    I unloaded about 20% of my position at $13.10 (primarily because it had become quite oversized as I added as it dropped). But, I still think it has a little room to run.

    The technicals are also looking much better now. Will keep an eye on the 200 DMA, and may sell some upside calls if it reaches that point (around $14.35). Looking to sell the $15 January calls at that time on another 20% of my position.

    Note that for the first time in while, the 5, 20, and 50 DMA are sloping upward, and the 20 DMA (12.20) should cross over the 50 DMA (12.27) soon.
    Jul 30 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook's Powerful Inflection Point Finally Arrives [View article]
    Unfortunately Marek, its people like you who presumably shorted AMZN at $150 (now $300), TSLA at $50 (now $130), NFLX at $80 (now $200+), etc.

    Sometimes there are more important things then having a PE ratio of 10. Similarly, sometimes stocks with a PE of 10 go down.

    And, not every view that promotes an upward trending growth stock is a pump and dump...
    Jul 28 08:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Celgene (CELG +2.1%) Q2: net profit +30% to $478M; adjusted net profit +20% to $653M. Revenue +16.8% to $1.6B. Revlimid (multiple myeloma) sales $1.05B vs forecasts of $1.04B. Abraxane sales $155M and Pomalyst (recently launched) $66M; both are cancer drugs. Raises FY guidance: EPS seen at $5.80-5.90 vs $5.55-5.65 prior forecast and consensus of $5.77; net product sales seen at $6.2B vs $6B and $6.18B. [View news story]
    Yeah - I own it, but bought most of it below $80, and that was not so long ago. Its gone up very quickly. A little scary. Took a little profit here, altho it still looks strong.
    Jul 28 12:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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