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  • How to Detect Potential Chinese Stock Frauds [View article]
    Richard,

    The weird part is that there is a "Chinese" tap on WATG's website however without Chinese contents. It can be explained that the company is neglected. Still, it's not a positie sign.

    Companies like Baidu, Sohu, Sina, and Edu are all companies with excellent qualities. Why are you only looking at RTOs?
    Aug 2 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Detect Potential Chinese Stock Frauds [View article]
    It's interesting that I actually read the Citron report on MOBI. They referenced some Chinese news to argue that MOBI was misleading investors. But if anyone who understands Chinese and bothers to read their reference, one should know that some of Citron's evidence was not relevant at all! Citron, partially, was fabricating news to attack MOBI.

    Maybe I should write about this sometime.
    Aug 2 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Detect Potential Chinese Stock Frauds [View article]
    However once those VCs exit their investment window, those companies are on their own.
    Aug 2 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Detect Potential Chinese Stock Frauds [View article]
    Did the shoot Enron's CEO?
    Aug 2 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Detect Potential Chinese Stock Frauds [View article]
    Hey Richard,

    This article is meant for investors to look for red flags, which are not conclusive in determining the credibility of any business. In addition, I am working on article part II.

    But let's take WATG for example to check their media exposure. If you go to their Chinese website: www.watg.cn/ch/index.asp, you will notice that all the contents are in English! There was no Chinese description of the company, or whatsoever. In my opinion, the company fails the first media exposure test already.

    To comment on your last statement, there are many genuine Chinese companies with excellent qualities and growth prospects listed in U.S.. I find it very hard to believe that every of them is a fraud.
    Aug 2 09:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind Spreadtrum's Improbable Turnaround [View article]
    Spreadtrum bought out Mobile Peak for its 3G related technologies, whether as an attempt to enter the low end WCDMA market, or data card market as Huawei is the dominate player in this area.

    Mobile Peak doesn't generate much revenue at the moment, so there is no direct earnings added to Spreadtrum's book.
    Jul 18 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind Spreadtrum's Improbable Turnaround [View article]
    Gary,

    I doubt if there would be a big drop in terms of revenue. I think the 2G cell phone is still on a rise in emerging markets. Also if SPRD did delay some of the revenue recognition as shown in their Q1 earnings release, their overseas shipment should be fine, at least for the year.

    Also TD is slightly catching up. But still smartphone is still the area to watch.
    Jul 17 07:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind Spreadtrum's Improbable Turnaround [View article]
    I would agree that SPRD's future seems a bit vague at the moment. MTK is aggressively going into the smartphone-like feature phone market and ahead of 3G as compared to SPRD.

    Smartphone is the future and Spreadtrum needs to launch a meaningful android based TD chips and/or WCDMA no later than the end of this year.
    Jul 17 07:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind Spreadtrum's Improbable Turnaround [View article]
    BEA:

    Among all your comments, you have yet to provide any numbers, news links or coherent insights of the IC industry to back up your idea.

    What you did is to repeatedly copy Muddy Waters questions, which we already know, and ask other people to do research.
    Jul 11 10:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind Spreadtrum's Improbable Turnaround [View article]
    To BEA:

    Thanks for your reply.

    I don't think the revenue number I provided contradicts my theory to explain Wu Ping's resignation. As I mentioned, I think Wu Ping was forced to leave the company due to his poor strategic decisions - to give up WCDMA completely and invest hugely in TD chips which crowded out their baseband effort. Also the quality control and internal management were a mess. The board wouldn't force a CEO to leave if the financial crisis hit Spreatrum the way as to other IC firms.

    Leo Li would never openly attribute the loss in 2008 and early 2009 to the poor performance of the former CEO, considering Leo Li was invited by Wu Ping to join the firm and also Wu is well connected in China due to his family background.

    I think you have brought up a good point that the grey market handset industry in China is hard to analyze and subject to various explanations. Even isuppli's data can be questioned since the exact shipment numbers are viewed confidential among many industry players.

    As for Muddy Waters, I think they did an excellent job in cracking down Sino-Forest, which helped them establishing a name. Let's just hope it's not a 15 minutes fame. Since if research Sino-forest and Spreatrum, you can tell that it's much harder for Spreadtrum to fraud their statements as compared to Sino-forest.

    That being said, the lack of transparency of the grey market handset industry as well as most of the industry players being private do leave room for people, such as Muddy Waters, to interpret companies like Spreatrum the way they want.

    I am looking forward to Muddy Water's follow-up report, if at all.
    Jul 11 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind Spreadtrum's Improbable Turnaround [View article]
    I am actually curious about what Muddy Waters would say in their following report, if at all.

    P.S., The acquisition of MobilePeak is to adopt their WCDMA technology instead of existing revenue. It would take years for Spreadtrum to develop its own WCDMA chips.
    Jul 11 09:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spreadtrum: Compelling Value After Broad Chinese Stock Sell-Off [View article]
    Nice article. It's better if you could include some competitive analysis, especially when Mediatek is going into the low-end 3G market and has revised their strategy on 2/2.5G market as to provide more smartphone-like feature phones.

    Going forward, I think price was is inevitable.

    Personally, I don't think Spreadtrum's big chance lies in the TD markets, but rather to develop TD/WCDMA based chips if they can successfully play out the Mobilepeak acquisition.

    China Mobile takes the TD market as more of a political task than a business opportunity. In face of China Unicom's aggressive marketing, I don't think TD would dominate the market.
    Jul 10 11:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spreadtrum: Compelling Value After Broad Chinese Stock Sell-Off [View article]
    Marvin has an advantage in the high-end TD market where Spreadtrum will dominate the low/mid-end. SPRD just won a big contract from China Mobile.

    blogs.barrons.com/tech...
    Jul 10 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Behind Spreadtrum's Improbable Turnaround [View article]
    To PostalHorn,

    No. I have been following the company for a while
    Jul 10 10:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spreadtrum: Is Muddy Waters Right? [View article]
    Guys, check out my update article: Behind Spreadtrum's Improbable Turnaround

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Jul 10 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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