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Yaron Ron Reuven

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  • ARM Holdings: Growth Less Likely To Slow Down Soon [View article]
    How do you justify a $20+ billion valuation with only a $1 billion sales business, that even if successful at meeting all targets, will only generate $500 million more in sales over next 5 years?
    Apr 13 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARM Holdings Stock Is Overvalued By The Market [View article]
    Michael,

    I believe the $5 estimate is likely 100-300 percent higher than what I anticipate the average IoT device will carry. Although items like cars, washer/dryer, and other high priced devices will not be as pressuring on prices, the vast majority of the devices that will utilize these chips are much lower priced items (calculators, networking gear, fire alarms etc.) that in no way could afford to spend that much on the chip. Such a high price could likely be a double digit percentage of the overall manufacturing cost, which eliminates the business value of using ARM since they don't even manufacture the chip, which is a time sensitive matter all OEMs consider as part of their overall financial benefit analysis of using ARMH, INTC or anyone else.


    The second issue is a question I have regarding the 0.18 chip ARPU you mentioned. Since ARMH provided the number on their 10Q as something around 0.045 (which has had a steady decline over the past few years), may I know how did you come up with such a high number?

    Lastly, although were both on the same side of the ARMH trade, I believe I am much more bearish, and predict that they will ultimately end up like MIPS. further, one of the big reasons is the fact that they estimate royalties to be paid for current patents for many years, when reality is going to give the average patent a lifetime that's probably 75% shorter. This makes their business much mire vulnerable they they make it appear, and one that I think could have large drastic surprising drops in the future. Any thoughts would be appreciated.
    Apr 7 12:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why SunOpta's Board Should Vote To Sell The Organic Food Company [View article]
    Richard,

    Thank you. I believe that the market is starting to see the favorable regulatory changes the organic food companies were fighting for finally get attention, and therefore change the current growth projections drastically. There was a recent announcement by the European Commission regarding the organic food labeling regulation that will not only be great for organic food companies there, but will also put more pressure on the US and other countries to make the same changes in order to remain competitive. The labeling of GMOs in the US is the biggest catalyst I believe this industry will ever get, and this new European regulatory change is going to be added pressure on the US to finally pass the law and be in the same standard as the rest of the developed world.
    Apr 3 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Venezuela To Devalue Its Currency Again, MercadoLibre's Financials Will Get Hit Hard [View article]
    Michael,
    Regardless of whether one agrees about the problems in Venezuela and Argentina or not, saying that MELI should be a $10-20 billion company while their sales are not even $500 million is ludicrous. Further, the fact that firms like Stifel are saying there should be "multiple expansion" at MELI (And many other companies) as if its a tangible corporate development and not just another way to say "there will be further speculating in the shares that could drive the stock higher in hopes that time and future potential will justify such a move" is just misleading. The company escaped another quarterly earnings disaster by the skin of their teeth, because shareholder are ignoring reality since the facts will get in the way of the story. but this is only temporary so long as half of their business dealings come from troubled economies/countries.
    Mar 3 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    We own MONI.l, but I didn't notice a significant cost difference between that and MONIF
    Feb 26 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise Continues To Establish Its Pole Position [View article]
    Just curious as to why you prefer OTC MONIF over main security MONI.L.?
    Feb 26 02:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why SunOpta's Board Should Vote To Sell The Organic Food Company [View article]
    caedmon,

    I'm not sure I understand what you mean by "considered them a danger stock since then....
    Feb 11 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Bet On Green Mountain Coffee 2.0? [View article]
    Good article
    Feb 3 02:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Venezuela To Devalue Its Currency Again, MercadoLibre's Financials Will Get Hit Hard [View article]
    Sanjay,

    your points about insider selling and others are well thought out and I agree to certain extent with all except one. When you say that MELI is a big enough company, I am not sure how arrive at that conclusion. Are you referring to market cap or revenues? Because in market cap you are surely correct, as 4.2 billion is relatively significant, and considered midcap. But their revenues are only 10% of that value, and thereby not consider very big in public company terms. Much larger companies have disappeared overnight because of mistakes, and although I am not saying that MELI will disappear tomorrow or at all, I am saying that the value of their stock is a very bad indication of their size or state of stability, since it could be cut significantly in a matter of days as things in Venezuela and Argentina--which represent 45% of total revenues, and 70% of total company growth--deteriorate.
    Jan 25 08:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problemas We Found In MercadoLibre's Earnings [View article]
    With nearly 45% of revenues and 70% of co growth coming from Venezuela & Argentina, I wonder what excuse MELI management will use this time as both currencies are crashing simultaneously
    Jan 23 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Beyond 4Q, Novatel Wireless Looks To Be A Buy [View article]
    As I commented in your initial NVTL Article, this company will never amount to anything so long as the keep management and board the same, since all they do is pay themselves outsized bonuses for stealing the company's money from shareholders.
    Jan 20 02:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Venezuela To Devalue Its Currency Again, MercadoLibre's Financials Will Get Hit Hard [View article]
    Moctavio,
    I wrote more details about you're saying several months ago which I thought you'd find useful. http://bit.ly/1eQPnHC
    Jan 17 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Venezuela To Devalue Its Currency Again, MercadoLibre's Financials Will Get Hit Hard [View article]
    This is the destruction of capitalism at its finest. I would be anything that a sea of international companies doing business in Venezuela are going to run out of there asap, now that they know they can only make so little there. I guess because everything is upside down in Venezuela and at MELI, is the explanation why this awful news is somehow causing the MELI stock to be up today. very strange, but only temporary before bigger crash comes
    Jan 16 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Venezuela To Devalue Its Currency Again, MercadoLibre's Financials Will Get Hit Hard [View article]
    I think this article says that big meeting is next Wednesday, not this week. http://hrld.us/1eLlpVr

    Time to short more.
    Jan 15 10:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Venezuela To Devalue Its Currency Again, MercadoLibre's Financials Will Get Hit Hard [View article]
    Michael, your arguement about numbers of items sold is flawed simply by the fact that if valid, it would mean that a company selling 100,000,000 qTips one at a time to 100 million customer is more valuable than a company selling 1,000 airplanes to a single customer. You seem like a smart person, so I doubt you really believe this. We're all wrong at times, and after being a professional in the investing business for nearly 15 years (please see my bio), I sure have had my wrong assumptions. But I still consider myself a "real" investor.
    Jan 15 10:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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