Advanced Micro Devices: Is Goldman Sachs Right? [View article]
As a wall streeter for over a decade, i can tell you all that sell side research is not always what many think it is. The problem is that investors only care about the flaws of sell side research if its against their investment thesis. So if GS came out and said that AMD is worth $1000 per share just because, investors would flock to it and use it as a validation to buying more despite how irrational. This type of stuff happens daily, and is the reason why the analysis thats most hated is on the short side even if it makes sense. This is not to say that I agree with GS on AMD, and in fact wholly disagree with their $2.50 valuation in every possible way, but I am mentioning this since investors bias towards research is running rampant in this bull market. For anyone following SEC filings, you'll notice that GS sold about 70% of thier AMD position, or about 1.51 million shares as of the end of 3/31/13, and had only 727k shares left. This means what you make of it, but I can attest that I have seen many wall street firms downgrade stock literally at the same time they're buying a stock. point being, that while all analysis should be taken with a grain of salt, investors should not forget to do that also with the analysis that is favorable to their positions.
The House Agriculture Committee heard some spirited debate this week on if it should be easier for organic food companies to organize industry-wide promotional campaigns, a concept which didn't sit well with many farm-state Republicans. It's been a slow process, but more Republicans have been backing amendments and bills that support the organic food industry. Organic-minded: TFM, HAIN, NGVC, HAIN, BNNY, WFM, UNI, STKL, BDBD. [View news story]
The govt restrictions that have held back organic food industry are being worn out slowly, which would eventually lead to major explosion in industry growth. Good news is that th eventually is now in near term. Non GMO Regulation changes will be biggest change in food industry in past century.
Sprouts Farmers Markets (SFM) files for an IPO in a bid to raise $300M. The company booked $1.8B in sales in 2012 after being acquired by Apollo Global Management (APO -2.7%) in 2011 only to be merged with Henry's Farmers Market and Sunflower Farmers Market. With 150 stores natural/organic stores up and running already, and IPO cash coming in, the development gives Whole Foods Market (WFM +0.2%) something to think about. (S-1). [View news story]
organic sector is running hot, and will only get hotter as catalysts such as being the highest margin part of food sector, Non GMO change coming to US, consumers becoming more conscience, and higher volume leading to normalized pricing vs. non organic food, only serve as some of the over all industry catalyst, while some companies within sector have their own individual catalysts. The best part is that each one of these catalysts is a major game changer, specifically the GMO which is a permanent life changer that can multiply industry revenues by 10x in the next 5 years. .My favorite is still STKL, which not only the cheapest out of the entire industry using any measure of valuation, but also has most catalysts beyond normal ones available to rest of industry. check out my thesis and recent article on it at http://bit.ly/10zIGUS Full thesis is within one of the links.
The robust quarter (I, II) put in by Whole Foods Market could help lift companies in the business of selling natural/organic food. On watch: TFM, HAIN, NGVC, HAIN, BNNY. [View news story]
as usual the best kept secret in organic market is not included on list even though they were the only co to beat revenue forecast thus far this quarter, and are the cheapest valuation in industry (based on any metric). STKL http://seekingalpha.co...
SunOpta: 2012 Recap And What's The Next Catalyst [View article]
looks great so far. growth story continues to accelerate with sales beating forecasts while eps met estimates. out of organic names, STKL is the only company to beat Revenue guidance, while WFM HAIN have only met or missed guidance. Revenue growth has been lackluster in this overall bull market, so this beat is music to our ears. Will write an update after digesting CC and financials.
Applied Micro: Yet More Skepticism Required [View article]
very good article ashraf. it seems like despite the abundance of added regulation, inappropriate behavior and outright fraud at public companies is running rampant. It's the most I have seen in my career.
great thought. I agree that it will take more time before the next crash, but because of the increased speed in the financial markets, I believe it will take less time than it would've ordinarily taken in the past. I love gold investors, they such conviction in their investment and are sometimes full of historical knowledge that can be quite entertaining and informative. I only wish they didn't take and objecting opinion so personally.
what you dont understand is that in a currency debased world, the order you see today will be no more. nothing will be as it is today. It will be more like the shows on TV where people are stranded on some island and trying to survive, only worse. I will not throw the food out, i will eat. what will you do with your gold? I guess you can eat it too, but doesnt seem like a nutritious choice. I guess you can build a small box with it that will hold the food you'd buy from me? let me know so i can put some aside for you.
that's how stocks work. you no longer need to come down to the curb on wall street to buy them. You dont even need to call anyone. you just use the same machine that's allowing you to view this article that you enjoyed so much, and after setting up an account with a brokerage firm, they will provide you with a technology that'll let you press a button via mouse click in order to transact in many asset classes, including GLD. Thanks again for the compliments. It's because of fans like you that I share my articles/thoughts.
filipo, have you ever asked yourself what will you do with the gold if the whole fiat currency argument that gold investors preach actually comes true? since the world will be in chaos only seen in movies, websites like SA and stocks markets will all evaporate so we will not be able to communicate. This is why I thinnk its good to know now. What will you buy with your gold? food? water? gas? likely. so which is more valuable, survival items or a bar you can not eat, drink or use for transportation?
ARM Holdings (ARMH): Q1 EPS of $0.17. Revenue of $263.9M (+26% Y/Y) beats by $13.19M. (PR) [View news story]
countless anomalies with quarter's financials. 1. Revenue up $1.1 million from 3 months ago (Q4 2012), yet net cash generation down $15.4 million. 2. Goodwill and Intangible increased by $145million (17.7%) in 3 months. 3. Q4 25% backlog strangely timed with CEO retirement, as Q1 backlog only 5% (channel stuffing?). 4. dramatically lower tax rate in Q1 than 3 months ago Q4. 5. Huge tax credit/subsidy received from US government in Jan 2013 for 2012, instead of receiving it in December. Not necessarily anomaly but helped earnings in way thats not repeatable. 6. historically showed off how they exceed industry performance quarter after quarter, yet guidance of -10% is in line with industry. it goes on and on.
InterOil: The $3.5 Billion Penny Stock [View article]
Adam,
Good article and perfect prediction of what's likely to happen in next conference. What would you value IOC at without the NG property they keep promoting?
As you will see from my bio, I am not a professional writer, I manage my a hedge fund. So communicating my opinion is done pretty regularly in conferences I speak at, letters, meetings etc. I just dont publish everything. I hope you can understand.
Part I is a link inside this article, and part II is below recent update under my name in SA article. All three are on my blog. Sorry you don't like me. I guess my opinions based on facts are irritating.
Garth, thanks for comment and compliment. As Part I of articles (link in article) said i believe that If disaster strikes monetary system the only thing that would be worth anything is survival goods such as food water, oil, gas, shelter etc. gold would be useless in that scenario no matter what the bulls believe.
Advanced Micro Devices: Is Goldman Sachs Right? [View article]
The House Agriculture Committee heard some spirited debate this week on if it should be easier for organic food companies to organize industry-wide promotional campaigns, a concept which didn't sit well with many farm-state Republicans. It's been a slow process, but more Republicans have been backing amendments and bills that support the organic food industry. Organic-minded: TFM, HAIN, NGVC, HAIN, BNNY, WFM, UNI, STKL, BDBD. [View news story]
Sprouts Farmers Markets (SFM) files for an IPO in a bid to raise $300M. The company booked $1.8B in sales in 2012 after being acquired by Apollo Global Management (APO -2.7%) in 2011 only to be merged with Henry's Farmers Market and Sunflower Farmers Market. With 150 stores natural/organic stores up and running already, and IPO cash coming in, the development gives Whole Foods Market (WFM +0.2%) something to think about. (S-1). [View news story]
The robust quarter (I, II) put in by Whole Foods Market could help lift companies in the business of selling natural/organic food. On watch: TFM, HAIN, NGVC, HAIN, BNNY. [View news story]
SunOpta: 2012 Recap And What's The Next Catalyst [View article]
Applied Micro: Yet More Skepticism Required [View article]
Is Gold Useless - Part III [View article]
great thought. I agree that it will take more time before the next crash, but because of the increased speed in the financial markets, I believe it will take less time than it would've ordinarily taken in the past. I love gold investors, they such conviction in their investment and are sometimes full of historical knowledge that can be quite entertaining and informative. I only wish they didn't take and objecting opinion so personally.
Is Gold Useless - Part III [View article]
what you dont understand is that in a currency debased world, the order you see today will be no more. nothing will be as it is today. It will be more like the shows on TV where people are stranded on some island and trying to survive, only worse. I will not throw the food out, i will eat. what will you do with your gold? I guess you can eat it too, but doesnt seem like a nutritious choice. I guess you can build a small box with it that will hold the food you'd buy from me? let me know so i can put some aside for you.
Is Gold Useless - Part III [View article]
that's how stocks work. you no longer need to come down to the curb on wall street to buy them. You dont even need to call anyone. you just use the same machine that's allowing you to view this article that you enjoyed so much, and after setting up an account with a brokerage firm, they will provide you with a technology that'll let you press a button via mouse click in order to transact in many asset classes, including GLD. Thanks again for the compliments. It's because of fans like you that I share my articles/thoughts.
Is Gold Useless - Part III [View article]
have you ever asked yourself what will you do with the gold if the whole fiat currency argument that gold investors preach actually comes true? since the world will be in chaos only seen in movies, websites like SA and stocks markets will all evaporate so we will not be able to communicate. This is why I thinnk its good to know now. What will you buy with your gold? food? water? gas? likely. so which is more valuable, survival items or a bar you can not eat, drink or use for transportation?
ARM Holdings (ARMH): Q1 EPS of $0.17. Revenue of $263.9M (+26% Y/Y) beats by $13.19M. (PR) [View news story]
InterOil: The $3.5 Billion Penny Stock [View article]
Good article and perfect prediction of what's likely to happen in next conference. What would you value IOC at without the NG property they keep promoting?
Is Gold Useless - Part III [View article]
As you will see from my bio, I am not a professional writer, I manage my a hedge fund. So communicating my opinion is done pretty regularly in conferences I speak at, letters, meetings etc. I just dont publish everything. I hope you can understand.
Is Gold Useless - Part III [View article]
Is Gold Useless - Part III [View article]
thanks for comment and compliment. As Part I of articles (link in article) said i believe that If disaster strikes monetary system the only thing that would be worth anything is survival goods such as food water, oil, gas, shelter etc. gold would be useless in that scenario no matter what the bulls believe.