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Yaron Ron Reuven  

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  • ArcelorMittal Our Favorite Among 5 Plays For Selling Naked Puts [View article]
    Sol,

    I like the selling puts concept as we do it in our fund, but your statistics have a big mistake in them as they state MT has sales of 9bb instead of the $94 billion they reported for 2011. I'm sure this is just a typo but I remember seeing it in another MT article and was curious as to how this big mistake is being repeated http://bit.ly/JGRImu
    Apr 29, 2012. 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Green Mountain Coffee's Inventory A Toxic Brew? [View article]
    Kamig and For all of those who dismiss Sam purely based on his blunt and disturbing disclosure of being a felon etc, you should know that felons also make the best detectives. There was actually a famous movie made about a former felon Frank Abagnale jr called Catch Me If you can http://bit.ly/IGkWBh
    Apr 29, 2012. 04:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    nstollon,

    I understand that they have recognition amongst their customers, but the problem is that their end users dont even know they exist. Since their IP's have a temporary lifetime (like all chips or technology), this means that the minute another company comes our with a better product, the existing ARMH customers would be forced to make an immediate change to appease the customers seeking performance since no end user will be seeking a product they dont know exists.
    Apr 27, 2012. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    MikeMJS,

    looking at IBM and Intel's earnings reports over the last few years would contradict what you said since both companies are growing in both bottom and top line. It is very difficult to determine direct impact of marketing when you are on the outside, but it can't be too bad if the profits continue to increase as they have been for both. I actually used to use a small indicator many years ago for our investments, where the companies that we saw more commercials and marketing for tended to have the best stock performance. It's still valid, so you should check it out for your self.
    Apr 27, 2012. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    NITBound,

    The goal of my articles is to provide a contrary opinion to whats become the norm. I am not here to be a reporter for the WSJ or repeat the news. As you can see from my blog blog.ReuvenEnterprises... I dont write very often, but I try to discuss things I either have very controversial opinion about or something I dont see being discussed as often as it should. I am not sure why some people take it so personally when my opinion is different than theirs but I guess its better to get a debate than no comments at all. I only wish the debates had a bit more relevant basis than personal insults or accusations.
    Apr 27, 2012. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    Zorkon,

    I do understand the high tech business and have invested in it my entire career, even managed to have some decent predictions somehow. the fact that a fab is so expensive is indeed the reason why not having it makes the business less valuable. I'm not sure if there is another way to explain that one.

    I'm also not saying that designing chips is easy, I'm saying new chips and technology happens, and will continue to happen. Just 10 years ago, most people thought that a 54k modem was a terrific way to surf the internet. I don believe they that anymore. The flaw in your analysis of AMD and Intel not having a competing chip is that you believe that just because it hasn't happened it wont happen, or that just because ARM has the lead now, they will always have the lead. Have you heard a little company called Research In Motion. To make a Long story short, they used to have the lead. They don't anymore.

    you are correct about ARM chips going in a different direction and finding places in microwaves and washing machines. We are still completing our updated analysis, but can assure you already that the profit margins are no where near the same. But I'm sure that doesnt matter to most ARMH investors since "they'll make it up in volume" is a common believe most I've encountered had.

    good luck with your business.
    Apr 26, 2012. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    chipset,

    every company on the planet needs a brand if they want to have longevity. As business owner and adviser to many CEOs for the last 13 years, I can tell you that a brand can sometimes be a company's number one asset as well as key to growth or demise. To stay relevant, just look at companies like Intel and AMD. most users dont really know the difference in chip performance between the two companies, especially since it changes regularly with every new generation launch. Yet Intel the industry leader nonetheless still finds it imperative to put commercials on TV on a regular basis. Why would they do that if a brand didnt matter? Now your response to that could easily be that a part of Intel's business is retail so thats why the "need" to do it. Despite my disagreement, lets move on to example #2....IBM. when was the last time you bought an IBM machine at your local best buy? When was the last time IBM had any product in the retail stores? answer....8 YEARS AGO. so why does IBM find it imperative to have commercials on TV ever hour of the day when the average "retail consumer" cant buy their products even if the wanted to? answer....BRAND IS EVERYTHING.

    not sure what you do for a living but I can tell you that Brand is to Business as Blood is to Life.
    Apr 26, 2012. 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    nstollon,

    As with any valuation that measures intangibles, its a complex guestimate. We value the earnings power of the patents, the estimated lifetime, the scale, competitive advantage, brand recognition, pricing power, and a few other items. I dont claim to have a patent on patent valuation, but we feel pretty comfortable with our estimates, and to some extent think that the overall valuation target we gave is actually generous. The good news is that the recent patent deals in the market (kodak, msft, facebook, aol, and a bunch others) have given us more guidance than we would normally have in the past.
    Apr 25, 2012. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Notes From The Green Mountain Class Action Lawsuit [View article]
    disfiguredskating,

    the problem with bulls vs. bears arguments is that bulls are perceived as visionary (even if predictions are unrealistic) bears are perceived as manipulative (even if the information is correct).
    Apr 25, 2012. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Green Mountain Coffee's Inventory A Toxic Brew? [View article]
    Great info as usual sam It amazes me how the bulls refuse to face the facts. There are thousands of companies out there, but they continue to fight the tsunami tide about to hit this company. I also dont understand the value of discounting anyones info (criminal or not) without verifying it. I know that most investors are too lazy to do any work and buy stocks like they do a burger at mcdonalds, but if they looked at the NUMBERS and disregard where it came from (you, einhorn, me, or several other investors that are short the stock) there is no way to dispute them. the information being used is mostly coming out of the outstanding management team's mouth and SEC filing. no one told them to lie. Whats really unique about GMCR and other momo stocks is that anytime anyone (qualified or not) comes out with a BUY BUY BUY recommendation, they are praised and admired for being a "visionary" no matter how outlandish the recommendation is. But when there is a SELL recommendation.......oh boy. its frowned upon and called "manipulation" automatically while the author is personally insulted no matter how legitimate and accurate his numbers are. I guess people are more addicted to GMCR stock than its product.
    Apr 24, 2012. 10:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    Gofferson,

    93% is not too low, its $13 Billion that is too high. My thesis of ARMH having a flawed business model are longer term. Its my thesis of their obnoxiously high valuation that should be corrected sooner than later. today's 7% decline is a nice start, but we're a long way from home.
    Apr 24, 2012. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    chipset,

    the basis is shown in the chart I included in the article. It clearly shows how their prices are dropping precipitously (royalties and licensing) each year since the analysis began in 2005. you can also see it in the earnings ARMH announced today. We are doing another analysis and will be posting an update on the article soon.

    To say I dont understand the business is not really a good rebuttle. I would love to spend the next hour explaining to you my credentials and expertise, but that is not going to get us anywhere. lowering prices is only percieved as a function of a market when the market does not have brand leadership. a simple example would be Apple (a ARMH customer) or MSFT. when was the last time you saw an IPAD drop in price? answer....only after the new version is out. when was the last time you saw MS Office drop in price? answer....only after new version is out. Dropping prices is a function business, but a solid business only drops prices in order to get rid of old inventory so to avoid losing money. Since ARMH does not have any inventory ever, they should never drop prices. the fact that they do is a clear message that their customers are seeing less and less value for their product. Believe what you want, but thats my story and I'm sticking to it.
    Apr 24, 2012. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain: Have We Found A Bottom? [View article]
    putting my opinion of $GMCR aside, your comparison between GMCR and SBUX earnings is completely flawed. this is because the earnings you are using for GMCR are Non-GAAP, vs SBUX GAAP earnings. this is a world of difference that GMCR wants the analyst and investor world to use. whether you care for GAAP vs Non GAAP is not really important. Its just that if you are making a comparison between two items, they both have to use the same metrics, otherwise one has an unfair advantage.

    on a GAAP basis, a simple cashflow analysis would show GMCR losing money while SBUX is printing money.
    Apr 23, 2012. 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    Gofferson,
    You are correct about the ramp up in volume, but No company "elects" to lower than own price, they are forced to by their customers and market. the market only does this if the perception of your product deteriorates. in so many words, ARMH is a market leader purely because of price, not product quality. This is not neccessarily the worst problem in the world, since there are many businesses that have that as a foundation. My issue with it is the fact that the market is giving ARMH stock such a huge multiple that would only be deserved by a much higher growth business with much higher profit margins. if ARMH had a similar business to AAPL, then they should be valued like AAPL. unfortunately they have a business that has more similarities with NOK. they could still change that in the future, but this would mean that the stock would have to come back down to earth first and until that change starts to materialize.
    Apr 22, 2012. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Notes From The Green Mountain Class Action Lawsuit [View article]
    Ft1

    You may want to re-read the article because it seems like you misunderstood the point. Not of the issues at hand were facts founded by me, but rather my interpretation or questions about the allegations being made.if these allegations are proven to be true, than the questions I brought up are the very concerns that shareholders will have to deal with. The only item that is factual is the last section discussing the sales of stock by insiders Stiller and Lavazza. There's no disputing the fact that they sold and the coincedental timing of those sales. My point was that it appears "to me" like more than just coincedance since it happens so often at GMCR. NON of the information should be construed as investment advice. In fact you should not use it by itself as a full scope of analysis. All I am doing is writing about my opinion based on my understanding of the information available. I'm not sorry for it nor make any apologies for not having a popular opinion. All I can say is that you are responsible for your own money/investment decisions, and my opinion is just an insight of what I am doing with mine.
    Apr 21, 2012. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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