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Yaron Ron Reuven

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  • My Notes From The Green Mountain Class Action Lawsuit [View article]

    the problem with bulls vs. bears arguments is that bulls are perceived as visionary (even if predictions are unrealistic) bears are perceived as manipulative (even if the information is correct).
    Apr 25 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Green Mountain Coffee's Inventory A Toxic Brew? [View article]
    Great info as usual sam It amazes me how the bulls refuse to face the facts. There are thousands of companies out there, but they continue to fight the tsunami tide about to hit this company. I also dont understand the value of discounting anyones info (criminal or not) without verifying it. I know that most investors are too lazy to do any work and buy stocks like they do a burger at mcdonalds, but if they looked at the NUMBERS and disregard where it came from (you, einhorn, me, or several other investors that are short the stock) there is no way to dispute them. the information being used is mostly coming out of the outstanding management team's mouth and SEC filing. no one told them to lie. Whats really unique about GMCR and other momo stocks is that anytime anyone (qualified or not) comes out with a BUY BUY BUY recommendation, they are praised and admired for being a "visionary" no matter how outlandish the recommendation is. But when there is a SELL recommendation.......oh boy. its frowned upon and called "manipulation" automatically while the author is personally insulted no matter how legitimate and accurate his numbers are. I guess people are more addicted to GMCR stock than its product.
    Apr 24 10:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]

    93% is not too low, its $13 Billion that is too high. My thesis of ARMH having a flawed business model are longer term. Its my thesis of their obnoxiously high valuation that should be corrected sooner than later. today's 7% decline is a nice start, but we're a long way from home.
    Apr 24 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]

    the basis is shown in the chart I included in the article. It clearly shows how their prices are dropping precipitously (royalties and licensing) each year since the analysis began in 2005. you can also see it in the earnings ARMH announced today. We are doing another analysis and will be posting an update on the article soon.

    To say I dont understand the business is not really a good rebuttle. I would love to spend the next hour explaining to you my credentials and expertise, but that is not going to get us anywhere. lowering prices is only percieved as a function of a market when the market does not have brand leadership. a simple example would be Apple (a ARMH customer) or MSFT. when was the last time you saw an IPAD drop in price? answer....only after the new version is out. when was the last time you saw MS Office drop in price? answer....only after new version is out. Dropping prices is a function business, but a solid business only drops prices in order to get rid of old inventory so to avoid losing money. Since ARMH does not have any inventory ever, they should never drop prices. the fact that they do is a clear message that their customers are seeing less and less value for their product. Believe what you want, but thats my story and I'm sticking to it.
    Apr 24 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain: Have We Found A Bottom? [View article]
    putting my opinion of $GMCR aside, your comparison between GMCR and SBUX earnings is completely flawed. this is because the earnings you are using for GMCR are Non-GAAP, vs SBUX GAAP earnings. this is a world of difference that GMCR wants the analyst and investor world to use. whether you care for GAAP vs Non GAAP is not really important. Its just that if you are making a comparison between two items, they both have to use the same metrics, otherwise one has an unfair advantage.

    on a GAAP basis, a simple cashflow analysis would show GMCR losing money while SBUX is printing money.
    Apr 23 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    You are correct about the ramp up in volume, but No company "elects" to lower than own price, they are forced to by their customers and market. the market only does this if the perception of your product deteriorates. in so many words, ARMH is a market leader purely because of price, not product quality. This is not neccessarily the worst problem in the world, since there are many businesses that have that as a foundation. My issue with it is the fact that the market is giving ARMH stock such a huge multiple that would only be deserved by a much higher growth business with much higher profit margins. if ARMH had a similar business to AAPL, then they should be valued like AAPL. unfortunately they have a business that has more similarities with NOK. they could still change that in the future, but this would mean that the stock would have to come back down to earth first and until that change starts to materialize.
    Apr 22 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Notes From The Green Mountain Class Action Lawsuit [View article]

    You may want to re-read the article because it seems like you misunderstood the point. Not of the issues at hand were facts founded by me, but rather my interpretation or questions about the allegations being made.if these allegations are proven to be true, than the questions I brought up are the very concerns that shareholders will have to deal with. The only item that is factual is the last section discussing the sales of stock by insiders Stiller and Lavazza. There's no disputing the fact that they sold and the coincedental timing of those sales. My point was that it appears "to me" like more than just coincedance since it happens so often at GMCR. NON of the information should be construed as investment advice. In fact you should not use it by itself as a full scope of analysis. All I am doing is writing about my opinion based on my understanding of the information available. I'm not sorry for it nor make any apologies for not having a popular opinion. All I can say is that you are responsible for your own money/investment decisions, and my opinion is just an insight of what I am doing with mine.
    Apr 21 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ivanhoe Mines: Nothing Much Has Changed [View article]
    Very good article. IVN is a unique situation. If not in Mongolia, the shares would be drastically higher. We used to be big shareholders of the company, but Mongolia is just too greedy for my blood.
    Apr 20 10:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ArcelorMittal Worthy Of Traders, Speculators, Or Investors [View article]
    Good article. The only thing I would recommend shareholders to not put much value on is the Quick Ratio for this company/industry since steel is a very liquid inventory to carry. In fact its as liquid as can be outside of oil, so the quick ratio may be an unnecessary impediment on an investor that does not understand it.
    Apr 20 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Notes From The Green Mountain Class Action Lawsuit [View article]

    "hope" is not a good premise to rely on in the investment business. I only say that because you mentioned that you just got into the investment world this year. its better to just go to vegas and put it all on black because at least you'll get a free drink.
    Apr 20 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Notes From The Green Mountain Class Action Lawsuit [View article]

    here is the part that your argument is missing. If the numbers are proven to be a complete fabrication (i.e. incorrect), then it would mean that the underlying business is not the same business that they said it was. ergo, the business is not growing at the same rate they said it did, does not have the same profit margins they said it did, does not have the same potential they said it did, DOES NOT warrant the same valuation.

    to simplify..........if you found out tomorrow that all of the numbers they report are fake, and that they really only sold a total of 6 kcups in the last 6 years (1/year), made 6 dollars in total sales, and paid the executives 500 million for that work. would you still say that $40/share is the correct price? this is an extreme hypothetical to emphasize the point, which does not change regardless of the numbers.
    Apr 20 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Notes From The Green Mountain Class Action Lawsuit [View article]

    why would my article (and short position) constitute bad behavior. first off, it is an opinion, that's all. If you want to write about your opinion of how terrific GMCR is, you should go ahead and do that. If I wrote the very same article I just did, but finished off the article with something referencing "it doesnt matter that GMCR is being sued, and whether they're stealing, hiding or cheating is irrelevant because they have a hot k'cup product that unstoppable based on the numbers being go ahead and sell everything else just to buy more stock because it is supposed to go higher" you wouldn't write the same comment despite the fact that what i just wrote is the epitamy of bad behavior. The point is that just because I dont agree with your bull theory, doesn't make me a bad guy or evil.
    Apr 20 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Notes From The Green Mountain Class Action Lawsuit [View article]

    you said
    "What really doesn't make sense is that there is no motive for these guys to make up numbers."

    you're probably right on the money if the GMCR business was private. but there is a HUGE benefit to fudge the numbers if you are a public company. if there wasnt a benefit, why would Enron, Worldcom, Global Crossings, and countless other companies have done it? its a fun thing to do, so there has to be another reason...................
    Apr 20 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Notes From The Green Mountain Class Action Lawsuit [View article]

    Are you seriously asking why the stock would head lower? did you read my hypothetical question?

    hypothetically, If the company announced that everything in the class action lawsuit is true, was forced refile their earnings etc

    1. Do you think the stock will head lower? If yes, how low do you think the stock will go?
    2. assuming yes, would you buy more shares?

    to answer your question about shorting more if it goes higher........based on the facts that we have today YES
    Apr 20 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    Phantom Gremlin,

    the short is not only based on valuation. as you can see from the article, we also believe that their business model is flawed and unsustainable over the long run. one of the most difficult parts of a short is that it is a natural bet against the tides and positive momentum. When you're long, all you're doing is agreeing with the business plan at hand and taking part of the future that you believe will take place. When you're short, you're pretty much saying that everyone is wrong. It's not easy. The toughest thing that I have had to overcome regularly throughout my career is making people believe in what I predict will happen in 3 years, today. it's a never ending battle. But, I am glad you dont have my money. ;)
    Apr 20 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment