In a bit of good news for Intel (INTC), Google (GOOG) is releasing a version of Android that supports the x86 chip architecture used for Intel's PC CPUs; Android devices currently rely on ARM-based (ARMH) chips. However, as 9to5 Google notes, the software is still a work-in-progress. In addition, software support or not, mobile device makers have thus far been wary of supporting x86 chips. [View news story]
letting x86 technology into the mobile game could spell the beginning of the end for ARMH.
ARM Holdings Is Everything Intel Isn't [View article]
Dana, it happens. ARMH is a perfect bull market stock when things are good, and people are too busy talking about the future instead of looking at the present fundamentals. it's a high flyer that looks like a blue chip because people associate it with apple and google, and billions of mobile devices. what they dont realize is that despite the fact that armh has 90% of mobile market, they make so little on their IP that they only generate a bit over 700mm in sales and not very much profit, yet have a value that would indicate they make at least 10 to 20 times that amount. plus, despite the growth story, they're growth is mostly behind them. if they "grew" to 100% of the mobile market, maybe they'll make 800 mm. what investors are not paying attention to is that the current value of 13BB armh has is pricing in too much of the future (aka priced to perfection). when they eventually no longer have the "best" idea, the company is in deep trouble, and investors are in for a rude awakening. i dont see a bright future for their stock with their current business model. quite frankly i think they will eventually become worthless if they dont make some severe changes to the business model. thats just my opinion, dont listen to me, do your own research and make up your mind. your money your choice. RCI is short ARMH
Green Mountain Coffee: Answers To All Investors' Questions [View article]
http://bit.ly/rvxzQU GMCR chairman sold another 20k shares yesterday, on top of 200k shares a few days ago. I guess he either needs 11mm for holiday shopping or is smelling the coffee.
A Low Risk Trade In Green Mountain Coffee Shares [View article]
You are correct Kim, but I still think that the author should make changes to the article and ELIMINATE the inclination that this trade is low risk. the Chairman of GMCR doesnt act like its low risk too because he hasnt slowed down his selling of the stock despite recent downturn. here's another 20k shares he sold yesterday http://bit.ly/rvxzQU . he sold 200k just a few days ago. i guess he needs 11mm for some small holiday shopping.
A Low Risk Trade In Green Mountain Coffee Shares [View article]
the world doesnt have to end in 3 weeks for it to effect GMCR like NFLX, RIMM and so many other high fliers go crushed in just days. some investors may have thought that AMR or MF was low risk because the stocks already got crushed and went to 1 or 2 dollars/share. and then they went to zero. nothing is low risk these days, and for all of the reasons i mentioned earlier, GMCR is not even a close candidate even if there were low risk options available.
Green Mountain Coffee: Answers To All Investors' Questions [View article]
Let me try to save some of you bulls some money before its too late. I'm sure a bunch of you are going to take this personally and are going to jab at me, but that will not make you any money or change my view or life. So read and pay attention if you want. GMCR accounting doesnt even add up if you just double check it with simple addition/subtraction. I'm not going to go into every detail we found in our research, but there is actually a pretty qualified guy name Sam Antar that did some homework you can piggy back off of to at least get started. go here http://bit.ly/rAUu3f Antar is not qualified because he's a noble honest person, he's qualified because he's a "reformed" crook who did the same thing as a former CFO of Crazie Eddie, and now helps the FBI, SEC etc catch white collar criminals. He's not denying what he did or looking for forgiveness, and says he knows he's going to hell. lol. either way, this is not about his character, its about the work he did that you can use, and simple math. I have no relationship with him and just recommended his site because i thought it would be a good starting point for investors that want to find out more info. You can also do the research yourself. once you review GMCR's financials, you can do the math. if you cant do it in your head, then I'm sure there are some discounts online for calculators. Maybe we should send one to GMCR accounting department. If you're going to be defending this position and investing in it, at least do yourself a favor and do the all of the homework, and dont just "assume" anything. the 10k and conference call DID NOT answer all of the questions and allegations and just put more smoke and mirrors on the issues at hand. quite frankly, if the allegations are right then management is the last place you want to rely on for truth. This doesnt mean that the coffee is good or bad, or that the business is good or bad. you have to make the decision for yourself. The way I look at it is that there are just too many RED FLAGS, where even if "some" of them are true, then GMCR and its shareholders are in deep trouble. In regards to the accounting, if they are not cooking the books, then they're simply just stupid. niether one is good, but I guess you may prefer a moron to run your company than a liar. the bottom line is that regardless of whether you like the coffee or the CEO or the profits you made by buying the stock a few years ago......if you're going to own it now, you have to look at this info. Because then, whether it ends up being proven correct or incorrect, you can at least say you made an informed investment and didnt just depend on luck and the rest of the GMCR cult to continue pumping up the stock on TV and message boards. As you may already know from my other posts, our fund is short GMCR, and although we're very profitable on the position, I think this is only the beginning. Its your money, your choice. Just dont say you werent told.
thanks for the reminder to see the 60 minute clip. I've read and heard about it, but never got a chance to see the show. I guess this is why all of these politicians have changed politics from being a stepping stone in one's career, to being the actual career. who needs the income of 200k, when you can trade on insider information and guarantee a no lose scenario? It was a terrific article, very informative, especially discussing shareholder activism.
A Low Risk Trade In Green Mountain Coffee Shares [View article]
how could you say there is very little downside? You cant really believe that can you? the company has a 8BB mkt cap, while having real losses, only 2.7BB in sales, rapidly increasing debt, skyrockerting inventory without a reasonable explanation of why, potential writedowns if the inventory doesnt end up being sold quickly enough, almost 0 cash (13mm, which might as well be zero with their high demand for cash. meaning that they will need go to the debt market to borrow more money, or equity market to issue more shares at a discount), insiders that are selling the stock like its burning their hands, an SEC investigation, questionable accounting and financial procedures, patents expiring, on top of the fact that the entire economy and markets are in shaky conditions. yet again, they have a $8,000,000,000 market capitalization. aside from the fact that in the current market conditions, there is virtually nothing that is low risk, but assuming there was a safe bet (or low downside) this would not be it. you seem like a smart guy, but i would suggest you compare and contrast all of the "red" flags vs the "green" flags before investing, let alone saying its a low risk investment.
Green Mountain Coffee: Answers To All Investors' Questions [View article]
So the author is saying to buy gmcr while he expects their stock to drop almost 40% to reach his 32 target???? Maybe you should give up investing and join the gmcr executives, since they're saying the same thing with their actions? I also hear crm is hiring.
A Low Risk Trade In Green Mountain Coffee Shares [View article]
Writing covered calls is not low risk, as investors are still susceptible to a major stock decline, as gmcr recently had. If one were to do this when gmcr was at 90 I bet he wouldn't be celebrating that he got to keep the premium despite the stock getting cut in half. All a covered call does is lower the cost basis, while limiting upside potential. This is usually an ok strategy with less volatile stocks that you don't expect to run away from you or collapse
Short Gold ETFs Get Boost From Precious Metals Weakness [View article]
the end to the gold bubble will inevitably come, just not sure when. whether 2000/oz will come before 1000/oz is not as important as when 1000 will happen. http://bit.ly/vSR6ez
Netflix, Green Mountain Coffee: Is Salesforce.com Headed Down The Same Road? [View article]
what many bulls don't realize about these high flying stocks is that just because someone says to short the stock, doesn't mean that their opinion of the actual business is negative. All it means is that the stock is overvalued in comparison to the current business because it is pricing in too much of the future into today's price.
Of course all stocks have their pricing based on the future, but the high fliers are different in the fact that they not only price a much longer part of the future (which is a variable beyond anyone's control), but they also get priced to perfection, whereby the market assumes that the company's current growth rates are going to remain the same regardless of the increased size of the businesses, which is a mathematical improbability if not impossibility. when investing, you must look at the price paid/projected as if you (or someone else) are going to buy the entire business. the multiples you use should tell you how long it will take to make your money back on this investment. So if you are buying a company that earns $1 for $10 dollars, it will take you 10 years to get your money back if it has 0 growth. if the growth is 20% a year, then the time span to break even is cut dramatically.
In the case of high fliers, the problem is that they not only make very little money (if any at all), but the current prices are 50, 100 and 200 times what they make, or "going to make at some point in the future". even if their growth is currently 80%, it is still too expensive for anyone rational to pay that price because it is unlikely for them to continue that growth in perpetuity, meaning it would take too long to make your money back.
CRM makes a couple of billion in "Sales," virtually no profits (for countless reasons), yet the market has a valuation of $15 Billion dollars on them TODAY. even if everything is kosher inside the company, and they actually reach their own targets of a $3 Billion run rate by 2013, they're still going to make no where near the amount of profits at that time to justify today's price. the consensus is actually that they may actually just break even at that point, but lets assume they'll make 150mm, just to prove the point. this would mean that it would take at least 100 years to break even, assuming no growth. now lets assume a 20% long term growth into the stock, and we can comfortably cut that time in 75%, leaving us with over 25 years to make our money back on this investment based on the price we pay TODAY.
to summarize, their accounting practice and everything else they do must be 100% legitimate, their targets must be reached or exceeded forever, their competition from the 3 largest software companies on the planet (MSFT, SAP, ORCL) must come up short (which would be a failure of epic proportions for those 3 competitors), no other competitor will get into the market successfully (GOOG, Facebook, INTU, etc.), and investors must exercise the long term patience of Warren Buffet to remain invested and bullish in this stock to support the price over the next several years (at least), when the average holder of stock has a holding time of only weeks, rather than years. And this is all just to justify "today's price."
I guess you can say its possible, anything is possible, just not probable. Its a good business, but its even too expensive for management to keep it, as they are selling it like a hot potato, leaving the public holding the bag. Your money your choice.
Little has changed in world of bond ratings, even after Dodd-Frank was supposed to shake it up. Moody's (MCO), S&P (MHP), and Ftich still dominate the business (98% of the municipal market vs. 94% in 2007) and have plenty of pricing power. "We don't look to compete on price," says Moody's. No wonder Warren Buffett likes it. [View news story]
I cant believe that the rating agencies are still allowed to stay in business let alone make more money, after the colosal screwup they facilitated in the recent financial crisis. How can anyone take them seriously after they rated crap the same level of safety as the US government? why arent the regulators taking more action? why arent investors boycotting them? if it werent for the AAA ratings, the amount of subprime and other financial instruments sold wouldnt have been anywhere near the same. These rating agencies should gather up together during thanksgiving and celebrate the short memory investors and public have sometimes.
In a bit of good news for Intel (INTC), Google (GOOG) is releasing a version of Android that supports the x86 chip architecture used for Intel's PC CPUs; Android devices currently rely on ARM-based (ARMH) chips. However, as 9to5 Google notes, the software is still a work-in-progress. In addition, software support or not, mobile device makers have thus far been wary of supporting x86 chips. [View news story]
ARM Holdings Is Everything Intel Isn't [View article]
it happens. ARMH is a perfect bull market stock when things are good, and people are too busy talking about the future instead of looking at the present fundamentals. it's a high flyer that looks like a blue chip because people associate it with apple and google, and billions of mobile devices. what they dont realize is that despite the fact that armh has 90% of mobile market, they make so little on their IP that they only generate a bit over 700mm in sales and not very much profit, yet have a value that would indicate they make at least 10 to 20 times that amount. plus, despite the growth story, they're growth is mostly behind them. if they "grew" to 100% of the mobile market, maybe they'll make 800 mm. what investors are not paying attention to is that the current value of 13BB armh has is pricing in too much of the future (aka priced to perfection). when they eventually no longer have the "best" idea, the company is in deep trouble, and investors are in for a rude awakening. i dont see a bright future for their stock with their current business model. quite frankly i think they will eventually become worthless if they dont make some severe changes to the business model. thats just my opinion, dont listen to me, do your own research and make up your mind. your money your choice. RCI is short ARMH
Green Mountain Coffee: Answers To All Investors' Questions [View article]
Green Mountain Coffee: Answers To All Investors' Questions [View article]
A Low Risk Trade In Green Mountain Coffee Shares [View article]
A Low Risk Trade In Green Mountain Coffee Shares [View article]
Green Mountain Coffee: Answers To All Investors' Questions [View article]
GMCR accounting doesnt even add up if you just double check it with simple addition/subtraction. I'm not going to go into every detail we found in our research, but there is actually a pretty qualified guy name Sam Antar that did some homework you can piggy back off of to at least get started. go here http://bit.ly/rAUu3f Antar is not qualified because he's a noble honest person, he's qualified because he's a "reformed" crook who did the same thing as a former CFO of Crazie Eddie, and now helps the FBI, SEC etc catch white collar criminals. He's not denying what he did or looking for forgiveness, and says he knows he's going to hell. lol. either way, this is not about his character, its about the work he did that you can use, and simple math. I have no relationship with him and just recommended his site because i thought it would be a good starting point for investors that want to find out more info. You can also do the research yourself. once you review GMCR's financials, you can do the math. if you cant do it in your head, then I'm sure there are some discounts online for calculators. Maybe we should send one to GMCR accounting department. If you're going to be defending this position and investing in it, at least do yourself a favor and do the all of the homework, and dont just "assume" anything. the 10k and conference call DID NOT answer all of the questions and allegations and just put more smoke and mirrors on the issues at hand. quite frankly, if the allegations are right then management is the last place you want to rely on for truth. This doesnt mean that the coffee is good or bad, or that the business is good or bad. you have to make the decision for yourself. The way I look at it is that there are just too many RED FLAGS, where even if "some" of them are true, then GMCR and its shareholders are in deep trouble. In regards to the accounting, if they are not cooking the books, then they're simply just stupid. niether one is good, but I guess you may prefer a moron to run your company than a liar. the bottom line is that regardless of whether you like the coffee or the CEO or the profits you made by buying the stock a few years ago......if you're going to own it now, you have to look at this info. Because then, whether it ends up being proven correct or incorrect, you can at least say you made an informed investment and didnt just depend on luck and the rest of the GMCR cult to continue pumping up the stock on TV and message boards. As you may already know from my other posts, our fund is short GMCR, and although we're very profitable on the position, I think this is only the beginning. Its your money, your choice. Just dont say you werent told.
How To Trade Like A Congressman [View article]
A Low Risk Trade In Green Mountain Coffee Shares [View article]
Green Mountain Coffee: Answers To All Investors' Questions [View article]
Maybe you should give up investing and join the gmcr executives, since they're saying the same thing with their actions? I also hear crm is hiring.
A Low Risk Trade In Green Mountain Coffee Shares [View article]
Short Gold ETFs Get Boost From Precious Metals Weakness [View article]
Green Mountain's Precipitous Price Drop: Wake-Up Call For Coffee Stock Investors? [View article]
Netflix, Green Mountain Coffee: Is Salesforce.com Headed Down The Same Road? [View article]
Of course all stocks have their pricing based on the future, but the high fliers are different in the fact that they not only price a much longer part of the future (which is a variable beyond anyone's control), but they also get priced to perfection, whereby the market assumes that the company's current growth rates are going to remain the same regardless of the increased size of the businesses, which is a mathematical improbability if not impossibility. when investing, you must look at the price paid/projected as if you (or someone else) are going to buy the entire business. the multiples you use should tell you how long it will take to make your money back on this investment. So if you are buying a company that earns $1 for $10 dollars, it will take you 10 years to get your money back if it has 0 growth. if the growth is 20% a year, then the time span to break even is cut dramatically.
In the case of high fliers, the problem is that they not only make very little money (if any at all), but the current prices are 50, 100 and 200 times what they make, or "going to make at some point in the future". even if their growth is currently 80%, it is still too expensive for anyone rational to pay that price because it is unlikely for them to continue that growth in perpetuity, meaning it would take too long to make your money back.
CRM makes a couple of billion in "Sales," virtually no profits (for countless reasons), yet the market has a valuation of $15 Billion dollars on them TODAY. even if everything is kosher inside the company, and they actually reach their own targets of a $3 Billion run rate by 2013, they're still going to make no where near the amount of profits at that time to justify today's price. the consensus is actually that they may actually just break even at that point, but lets assume they'll make 150mm, just to prove the point. this would mean that it would take at least 100 years to break even, assuming no growth. now lets assume a 20% long term growth into the stock, and we can comfortably cut that time in 75%, leaving us with over 25 years to make our money back on this investment based on the price we pay TODAY.
to summarize, their accounting practice and everything else they do must be 100% legitimate, their targets must be reached or exceeded forever, their competition from the 3 largest software companies on the planet (MSFT, SAP, ORCL) must come up short (which would be a failure of epic proportions for those 3 competitors), no other competitor will get into the market successfully (GOOG, Facebook, INTU, etc.), and investors must exercise the long term patience of Warren Buffet to remain invested and bullish in this stock to support the price over the next several years (at least), when the average holder of stock has a holding time of only weeks, rather than years. And this is all just to justify "today's price."
I guess you can say its possible, anything is possible, just not probable. Its a good business, but its even too expensive for management to keep it, as they are selling it like a hot potato, leaving the public holding the bag. Your money your choice.
Disclosure: RCI is short CRM.
Little has changed in world of bond ratings, even after Dodd-Frank was supposed to shake it up. Moody's (MCO), S&P (MHP), and Ftich still dominate the business (98% of the municipal market vs. 94% in 2007) and have plenty of pricing power. "We don't look to compete on price," says Moody's. No wonder Warren Buffett likes it. [View news story]