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Yaron Ron Reuven  

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  • My Notes From The Green Mountain Class Action Lawsuit [View article]
    nulhegan,
    not sure why your taking my article or short position so personally. we happen to have a different opinion than you, why is that so pathetic?
    Apr 18, 2012. 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Notes From The Green Mountain Class Action Lawsuit [View article]
    39440,
    the statement was not made by Einhorn, it was made by CW1 and confirmed by the other witnesses. to say its made up and that no witness will appear in court either sounds like bull wishful thinking or mobster talk. niether is conduce to a bull position.
    Apr 18, 2012. 02:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    alpine,

    it is very difficult for ARMH to improve performance without deteriorating the energy efficiency (the main selling point). this is part of the reason why the msft deal is being done to a limited extent where few models of win 8 will come out with armh in comparison to x86.
    Apr 18, 2012. 03:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    captainccs,

    I completely disagree with the notion that as long as you're selling more, the selling price doesnt matter. this means that every company on the planet is shooting for the wong thing. profit margins are the lifeblood of any business. too many "high growth" companies have argued that they could sell $1 for 90 cents and make up the profit in volume. obviously this didnt work. when using price as the main selling point, it not only commodotizes the business, but it also ruins the brand. just look at what happened in the supermarket, airline, and memory industries. they all kept selling price to the point where they ruined the industry. now supermarkets celebrate if their total profit equals 3% of sales. I dont understand why anyone would even be in such a business. you still take all of the risk, and reap such little reward that the hint of a downturn takes away years worth of profit. it makes no business sense to me. ARMH should model itself after its customers, such as apple. they never sell price, they sell brand, and quality. ARMH has a long way to go to get to that point where people even know that they exist, but its never too late.
    Apr 18, 2012. 03:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    jrpowell01,

    i agree with everything you said obviously, except the AMD ARMH partnership. it just doesnt make sense to me for a two copetitors to partner. They can merge, but not partner. too many legal kinks to overcome along with too much ego of who needs who.
    Apr 18, 2012. 03:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    chipset,

    I dont believe that a AMD + ARMH partnership will be good for AMD in the long run. it makes sense for a msft, google or apple to partner with armh since chips are not their main business, but a amd or intc partnering up with AMD is admitting that their innovation is limited since chip technology is their only business. just a thought.
    Apr 18, 2012. 03:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    nstollon,

    though I am not as optimistic about ARMH's future endeavors as you are, the key arguement here is that despite their past success, the market is already priced that in plus a whole lot more. why would anyone in their right mind pay 13 billion for a business that generates less than a billion in sales and 50mm in actual bottom line? you can always use the arguement that facebook just bought a company for 1bb when they had 0 revenue, but that doesnt mean its the right move. just look at the ARMH insiders. thier insider selling is indicating that they are of the opinion that is closer to mine than the bull case. terrific overvalued company.
    Apr 18, 2012. 03:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    freedomandliberty,

    just because something has never happened, doesnt mean it never will. especially with business innovation. Keep in mind that I am not disputing Arm's past success, I am disputing their current valuation. valuing a 1bb revenue business at 13bb is absurd in our minds. of course everyone is entitled to their opinions. we're betting alot of money that our opinion wins. time will tell.
    Apr 18, 2012. 02:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    Jay Murphy,

    thank you. you are 100% correct and we may be early, but this is the nature of shorting. unfortunately timing market rationalization precisely is impossible, but the fact that ARMH stock has been dead money over the last year, and not part of the recent rally gives us encouragement that the momentum has changed and rationalization may be around the corner. we are hedging our bets in case we're wrong though.
    Apr 18, 2012. 02:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • During its Q1 earnings call (live blog), Intel attributes the decline seen in PC CPU sales (even as PC shipments rose) on inventory cuts caused by hard drive shortages. It predicts inventory replenishment will begin in Q2 and accelerate in Q3, aided by the Ivy Bridge launch. The chip giant adds it's seeing some low-end price competition, presumably from AMD - that could explain Intel's slightly soft Q2 gross margin guidance. INTC -2.8% AH.  [View news story]
    It sounds like AMD is stealing market share from Intel. This could be big news for shareholders. Rory Read and his new built team are off to a good start already, so this type of confirmation is just what shareholders have been waiting for.
    Apr 17, 2012. 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    yumy87,

    thank you. analysts are already uber bullish on this stock, so an upgrade is not really in the cards. bullish catalysts that can go against our short could be:

    1. earnings/revenues grow higher than expected. ARMH projected at least 860mm in revenues, while we project a numbers closer to 900mm. neither one would justify current valuation. risk would be if revenues grow faster than that.

    2. msft ARMH products come to market sooner and in more models than expected.

    3. MIPS gets bought out at some astronomical valuation like 15 times revenues.

    4. ARMH signs deal with INTC and/or AMD. This would by far be the most detrimental to our short since it would change quite a few things. I dont believe that niether company will sign with them for quite a few reasons.

    not sure if a put would be a great bet before next earnings since we dont know how long it would take the market to realize that valuation is more important than a good story. the most difficult part of a short is timing when disaster will strike and/or how long it will take the market to see it. there are deffinitly some options worth the risk though, so you have to evaluate it based on your risk tolerance.
    Apr 16, 2012. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    chipset,

    you are right about the 60%. I made the error of writing the change per unit numbers from 2005 to 2009, instead of 2005 to 2012, which would agree with the 60%. the licensing is down over 70% since 2005 to 2012.
    Apr 16, 2012. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    Colorado112,

    I understand that you bought the stock at 6, and now that it's at 28, it seems like it should continue the trend. This is a common mistake many investors make and is the main reason why the most common quote in the investment industry is some version of "past performance is no guarantee or indication of future results". If you actually look at it on a mathematical perspective, then you have further proof of why the past and the future are not linked. if you flip a coin and get heads 10 times, the chances of getting tails on the 11th flip do no change. my thesis is based on the valuation of the company.
    Apr 16, 2012. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    very good points cameraguy. The business model of selling ideas without owning anything sounds great in theory, but I dont believe has a very long future.
    Apr 16, 2012. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    the508seal,

    not sure why you're taking my article so personally to call me an idiot, but I appreciate your passion. I am alot of other things, but not that. I guess my points hit a nerve. when reading it, (or any other article about a company/stock you own) you should forget that you own the stock in order to really get the full benefit of the info that's in the article. whether you agree with the points or not is irrelevant. the point is to read without having a selective bias. in regards to your point

    " No one has designed out the ARM core and succeeded"

    just because no one has, doesnt mean no one will. my thesis is based on the business's value not the business's trackrecord. The question you should ask yourself is

    "If you had 13BB to spend, would you buy a company that is generating 800mm in sales, 50mm in net free cashflow, has a price/unit model that goes down 10%/year, has limited physical (easy to value) assets, has internal projected growth of 9.5%" If the answer is yes than that would mean that unless something drastic changes, it would take you over 100 years to get your investment back. If the answer is still yes after learning that, they I can't help you any further since our mindsets are too different to come to a middle ground.
    Apr 16, 2012. 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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465 Comments
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