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Yaron Ron Reuven  

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  • Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
    stevewbright,

    the business's value is being represented by their stock, and although a stock is not always the best representation of the status of a company, the fact still remains that if someone wanted to buy the entire ARMH business, they would have to buy all of the shares outstanding at a value of $13BB. obviously this is a hypothetical scenario, so dont be alarmed.

    the bullet points in the article are the facts. whether you consider them catalysts or not is based on your own analysis methods. but if you're referring to a catalyst event such as a fraud, or bad earnings, or something of that nature as prerequisite for a stock to become a short, then we are on two different pages. Although a catalyst (for a long or short) is nice to have, it is not a prerequisite. In fact, the fact that ARMH reports the numbers that they do each quarter is a catalyst to us since their earnings do not support their valuation.

    in regards to valuing the licenses and technology, I know exactly how their business of R & L works. just because I have a different opinion than you, does not mean I am the one that doesnt understand.

    I never said that they're worthless, the main point was that the business is terrific, but overvalued. Overvalued does not mean worthless. on another note, it could become worthless in time if they do not change their commodotized business model, but thats another article.

    Although I have been in the industry for the last 13 years, I never understood what a "hold" opinion/recommendation actually meant. If you dont think its going higher, then why own it. If you're not willing to buy more (for any reason other than not having capital) than why are you holding? In my book as an investor and professional, there are only two opinions. Buy or Sell.

    lastly, your advise that I should get the CFA. well I dont have the CFA, but I have this:

    Registered Options Principal (Series 4)
    General Securities Representative (Series 7),
    General Securities Principal (Series 24),
    Municipal Securities Principal (Series 53),
    Uniform Securities Agent State Law (Series 63),
    Investment Banking Representative (Series 79)
    Licensed Operations Professional (Series 99)
    Licensed Life Insurance Agent and Registered Financial Planner RFP®
    and CEO of Member FINRA Broker Dealer.


    I'd be happy to post my bio if you'd like more info about my knowledge base.
    Apr 16, 2012. 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD is one of the companies interested in acquiring MIPS Technologies (MIPS -2.7%), according to BSN, now that the #2 developer of CPU core designs (behind market colossus ARMH) is on the block. Buying MIPS would help AMD reduce its PC dependence, and also fit into its plans to develop chips featuring 3rd-party IP. However, BSN thinks CFO Thomas Seifert, the man said to "effectively run" AMD, could stand in the way.  [View news story]
    This would not be a good idea for AMD, as it would stretch their balance sheet out a little more than necessary after recent seamicro acquisition, and it would yield very little, since the MIPS technology is a one trick poney, that is becoming obsolete as we speak.
    Apr 16, 2012. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Stages Of Green Mountain Coffee, Based On Similarities With Solar [View article]
    Good article and good points. My favorite is

    Our financial system rewards revenue growth more than profitability. Whether this is good or not is debatable.

    Revenues are to the market like a diamond is a girls best friend. Unfortunately neither one makes a sustainable foundation if that's all that's being relied on. As long as gmcr is selling $1 for 80 cents it is paving its own road to extinction.
    Apr 14, 2012. 12:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The next PlayStation (SNE) will be called the Orbis and be released ahead of the 2013 holiday season, reports gaming site Kotaku. It's also claimed the console will feature an AMD CPU and GPU (in-line with rumors), and will support 3D video at very high resolutions. However, PS3 games won't be supported, and neither will pre-owned games - the latter is a negative for GME, which has been hoping such restrictions wouldn't exist.  [View news story]
    This is huge news for $AMD and bigger once confirmed.
    Mar 28, 2012. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain's Starbucks Deal Doesn't Matter [View article]
    Of course it doesnt matter, but for some reason GMCR bulls are ignoring it, just like they are all of the other red flags http://seekingalpha.co... . The reality is that the price increase GMCR stock saw yesterday was worth approx $700mm. Thats more than the profit they will make from the actual deal "ever". But who cares about profits, its just another line item.
    Mar 22, 2012. 06:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting Our Fair Value Estimate For Green Mountain Coffee Under Review [View article]
    good article, you're going to get a lot of hate mail for it
    Mar 22, 2012. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Catalyst Will Make Green Mountain Fall? [View article]
    unfortunately, the bulls got more encouragement today by the meaningless announcement the company exaggerated to the point where it added 700mm in value to GMCR. thats more than they will ever make in actual profit from the SBUX deal, but who cares about that little line item anyways.
    Mar 21, 2012. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At least one analyst isn’t buying the upbeat reaction to Green Mountain Coffee's (GMCR +10%) expansion of its strategic relationship with Starbucks (SBUX). The devil is in the details, Stifel Nicolaus says, adding that GMCR’s dominant platform likely will face “considerable profit pressures” due to competition from private label, partner brands and other branded coffee companies.  [View news story]
    This whole press release is a meaningless announcement that GMCR magnified to be something so gigantic the stock market value for them increased by $700mm. That's more than GMCR will "ever" make in profit from the SBUX deal if anyone cares for that little insignificant line item.
    Mar 21, 2012. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Catalyst Will Make Green Mountain Fall? [View article]
    stewpified,
    congrats on making money on gmcr by holding on to from 6 till 80. thats an amazing investment. In regards to negative cashflow being caused by cap ex, the reality is that it really doesnt matter what is causing it. the fact is that they are losing money, yet are portraying it to the investing public as it they are making a profit. The market may not care, but I personally dislike the way the message is being delivered. If you look at any business in the world, they all have capital expenditures, and they all say that the cap ex is higher now, but will be lower later. history has shown time after time, that these executives are either naive or over optimistic. Its not intentional, its just that the world moves faster than anyone expects, and the new project becomes the obsolete old project. GMCR will always have cap ex, and maybe they're capex will be relatively lower in the future, but I wouldnt bet the farm on that future projection. In regards to earnings projections, they are all priced into the stock, which means that if the business ends up growing at 20 or 25 percent (still very impressive), the market will punish GMCR stock since its priced to perfection. The accounting questions, and other red flags dont actually have a timer on them, thats what you may be missing. As a bull into a priced to perfection stock, you have to have a constant stream of good news to keep the price intact. As a bear, I only have to be right once, and the rest will work itself out. I love growth stories, and actually am long bias. what makes GMCR a short for me is that all of that wonderful growth is already priced into the stock to such extreme that if they miss a step the market will treat the stock as if the company is going bankrupt even if that missed step has nothing to do with the accounting red flags.
    Mar 19, 2012. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Catalyst Will Make Green Mountain Fall? [View article]
    Badcop
    What bulls don't get is that the majority of the bears don't question gmcr's past or future growth. We're just looking at facts which happen to be red flags. It's not personal, it's just stating the facts. The facts are that sbux doesn't even seem to be the biggest threat to gmcr. Gmcr is its own biggest threat. With questionable behavior, misinformation, aggressive accounting, and questionable insider selling the bulls should really focus on the management of gmcr as the threat and not people that voice these concerns. If bulls really want to do something productive, they should gather together and vote to replace the threat. That'll start the fixing of the broken parts of the company while hurting the shorts they spent so much time hating.
    Mar 16, 2012. 02:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Catalyst Will Make Green Mountain Fall? [View article]
    Arronsky,
    You mention a few points I'll try to address.
    1. How many followers I have (8). I'm not sure how that validates or invalidates the facts I mentioned, but I only started in this seeking alpha recently, as all of my past writing is on my blog blog.reuvenenterprises... which is also where you can find out more about my career. My career didn't start or end with my 8 followers. I state facts along with my contrarion and honest opinion.

    2. Why would sbux compete with itself? Theyre not launching it to canabilize their own business, but rather start a new one. Although canabilization will occur, I don't think that their analysis is based off of estimates that are telling them they'll have to destroy the huge current business. With 17k locations just to give the new one the opportunity to succeed.

    3. 2bb mkt cap loss on gmcr. The real question you should be asking is how much do you believe a business that generates 4bb in sales and negative cash flow is worth. Would you buy it for 8bb, 10bb 100bb. Why? Assuming youre not buying it just to have a trophy, How long will you wait to break even on your large purchase/investment.

    4. Faith. This is a business were discussing not a religion or holy figure. Blind faith is meant to be used with very few things in this world and gmcr or any other business is not it.
    Mar 16, 2012. 02:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee: A Murky Brew Of Underwriters, Analysts And Lost Value [View article]
    What bulls don't get is that the majority of the bears don't question gmcr's past or future growth. We're just looking at facts which happen to be red flags. It's not personal, it's just stating the facts. The facts are that sbux doesn't even seem to be the biggest threat to gmcr. Gmcr is its own biggest threat. With questionable behavior, misinformation, aggressive accounting, and questionable insider selling the bulls should really focus on the management of gmcr as the threat and not people that voice these concerns. If bulls really want to do something productive, they should gather together and vote to replace the threat. That'll start the fixing of the broken parts of the company while hurting the shorts they spent so much time hating. Rci is short gmcr
    Mar 16, 2012. 01:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Gets Roasted [View article]
    I don't think any of the bears, myself included, are questioning their past success or future potential. Putting the known red flags aside, how do bulls justify the valuation of the company being $8.15bb when cash flow is negative and revenues projected to hit $4bb. Would you buy the entire company for that price today?
    Mar 13, 2012. 10:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Catalyst Will Make Green Mountain Fall? [View article]
    Stewpified,

    the way SBUX described the machine in the press release and CC made it sound terrific, and a one over GMCR. if it wasnt better, then GMCR wouldnt have sent a release in panic the very next morning about a competing product. what the competition and GMCR will or will not do remains to be seen. most small companies have the potential to be bought out at the right price. The key being the "right price". based on our valuation analysis mentioned in the article, there is a right price for GMCR, its just no where near the current price. regarding your last question, the answer is YES , I do think that someone can do it better. Stop orders are not something most professionals use, at least not the ones I know.
    Mar 13, 2012. 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Gets Roasted [View article]
    Good article With a negative cash flow, how did you determine a value of 44? Out of curiosity if you're bearish on stock, why does disclaimer say you may take a long position? Momentum trade?
    Mar 13, 2012. 03:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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