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Yaron Ron Reuven  

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  • AMD Hires John Gustafson as Chief Graphics Product Architect [View article]
    big hire by AMD. although they have lost some smart people recently, each of their recent hires has been a major improvement over the past talent. Its more important than ever for AMD to make sure they have the right people to build the company for the future. All of this will take time to build, but creating a solid executive team can also create additional catalysts for the company beyond what they can do on their own.
    Aug 28, 2012. 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Green Mountain Coffee's Rally About To End? [View article]
    How is it possible theoretically? They lowered their capex by 100mm vs last yr and that's how they also came up with conclusion that theyll generate 100mm in cashflow. If you use the 100mm from current cash balance, and add the 100mm they project to make you're still missing 300mm. To add 300mm from credit line will not only require a revised credit facility/agreement but will also mean that they won't reach their cashflow target as increased interest expense will easily eat up 20-30% of cashflow.
    Aug 26, 2012. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Green Mountain Coffee's Rally About To End? [View article]
    Bill,
    I saw it but thought you could've been more direct about this specific point since it is a financial and mathematical impossibility for gmcr to achieve this 500mm buyback based on "their own" data and projections. Since this company has more than the typical amount of retail investors in it, it is imperative to be as direct as possible, as it appears many of these investors are trusting lots of capital purely based on gmcr mgmt empty promises. Just a thought.
    Aug 25, 2012. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Green Mountain Coffee's Rally About To End? [View article]
    Bill,

    much of your article depends on this fictional buyback GMCR announced. have you considered the fact that they dont have the money to buy back 500mm worth of stock. in a simple version of it, if they spend 100mm to buy stock, they will only be left with 39mm in cash (10mm is restricted). A bad quarter showing lets say 50 to 100mm loss would put the company in a situation where they cannot meet their debt payments, which could force bankruptcy unless its restructured. although this is type of domino effect is far fetched, I believe it is as farfetched as them actually buying 100mm worth of stock, let alone 500mm.
    Aug 24, 2012. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is ARM Holdings Growing Into Its Valuation? [View article]
    We're short armh, long Amd, not bc I think I think Amd will overcome intc, but bc their valuation. They make nearly 8x the revenues and 10x cf of armh, but only 25% of valuation.
    Aug 23, 2012. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR +1.9%) adds a new lemonade drink for its Keurig single cup brewing system. It's another move by the company into the consumer space that SodaStream (SODA -1.2%) occupies mostly unfettered by rivals, but not without drawing skeptics again. [View news story]
    Are you saying that the SODA machine and keurig have the same capabilities? They may have similar bus models but completely dif machines. What I am saying is that this lemonade by a coffee company looks more like PR smoke and lost focus than it does a valid attempt to get into new business line
    Aug 23, 2012. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is ARM Holdings Growing Into Its Valuation? [View article]
    although you are relatively bearish on ARMH, I still think you're actually too optimistic about their future. Their business flaws have begun to materialize (despite bull disagreeing based on recent stock performance), and the 800lb gorilla (INTC) has made a very loud statement that they are targeting ARMH's business. The OEM's that use ARMH use it purely because of its price. What bulls dont realize is that because the OEM's know that they practically control ARMH's future in their hands, they have constantly and successfully pressured them to lower the price further each year to the point where ARMH can no longer grow sales as they used to despite selling billions more chips. This is why despite ARMH being only a 800mm revenue business (small in semi conductor terms) they already announced during the last analyst conference that future growth will be cut in half for royalties (10-15%) and licensing (5-10%). ARMH has continued to comply because they know that
    1. all technology leadership is temporary
    2. they have no brand, so better, cheaper or faster will easily replace them at some point

    Lastly, they have a very manipulative (an imo quite shady) way of reporting financials.

    Note to anyone who is a bull, if you disagree or dislike my comments, please address the issues I listed above before insulting me. thanks.
    Aug 22, 2012. 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An 'Organic' $5 Stock Investors Should Sink Their Teeth Into [View article]
    I dont believe STKL has the intentions of selling their stake in Mascoma through the IPO and actually think they will be restricted from doing so for at least 6 months post IPO. this is a common restriction when a partially owned division of a parent company has a seperate IPO. Since they dont own the entire company, its unlikely they'll be able to issue mascoma shares to existing stkl shareholders, but shareholders will get a major benefit once the stake is monetized through the IPO as it becomes easier to realize that investment. Personally I would prefer they keep the stake until they get a value of at least $5/share for it, depending on how the business performs.
    Aug 22, 2012. 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR +1.9%) adds a new lemonade drink for its Keurig single cup brewing system. It's another move by the company into the consumer space that SodaStream (SODA -1.2%) occupies mostly unfettered by rivals, but not without drawing skeptics again. [View news story]
    I'm not sure if management is completely delirious or they are just trying to distract market with more PR, because if their growth plan really depends on selling lemonade "by the cup" for 73 cents/cup (which is higher than their already expensive coffee and dramatically higher than any lemonade competitor in the world) they might as well close down the shop today, and continue digging holes to bury the expired kcups.
    Aug 22, 2012. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An 'Organic' $5 Stock Investors Should Sink Their Teeth Into [View article]
    William,
    Im not sure I understand your comment regarding the cellulosic ethanol division. the Bioprocess group (division owned by STKL) was sold to Mascoma in exchange for a 20% stake in the entire Mascoma company. this was a good deal for both companies since one had the pre-treatment process and the other had the post-treatment process, making Mascoma a unique company that offers the full process of producing cellulosic ethanol from start to finish under a single roof. Mascoma has filed for an 100mm IPO, which does not indicate the total value of the company, but rather just the amount of money they are trying to raise through the IPO. companies usually dont sell the entire company but rather a small portion of the total company.
    Aug 21, 2012. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Priceline (PCLN): JP Morgan says shares of PCLN could be under short-term pressure with the disclosure that the firm may have less upside potential in Europe as its market share is adjusted upward on the fly. BofA is also a bit disturbed by the revelation, noting its adds more "uncertainty" to the mix on Europe. PCLN -1.0% premarket. (previous[View news story]
    this is bigger than the market thinks it is as it shrinks their potential which all analysts have built into their models in order to determine price targets and future value/profits/etc. If market size was 20% and they had 5%, then they're 25% of where they want to be. but if market is 20, but they're already at 11%, then they more than half way their, and we all know that no one can have 100%, so upside from here is much lower and more difficult to attain than upside from smaller marketshare.
    Aug 20, 2012. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Priceline (PCLN) warns in a 8-K filed with the SEC that it understated its share of room rights booked in the EU last year. Shares -1.1% premarket. [View news story]
    Pcln pulled a fast one on market
    Aug 20, 2012. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An 'Organic' $5 Stock Investors Should Sink Their Teeth Into [View article]
    You also forgot to mention their approx 20% stake in mascoma, a cellulosic ethanol company that recently filed for 100mm IPO. Depending on how the market evaluates mascoma after the IPO, the stake could be worth between 1-2 dollars per share. Just an FYI. Nice article otherwise about what we also believe is a unknown gem.
    Aug 20, 2012. 02:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARM-based (ARMH) Windows RT (MSFT) tablets will cost $200-$300 less than Intel/AMD-based Windows 8 Pro tablets, predicts Lenovo's (LNVGY.PK) North American chief, while adding he expects the latter to go for $600-$700. Such a pricing edge would leave RT systems, which don't support existing Windows software, on much better competitive footing relative to the iPad and Android tablets than Pro systems. A recently-announced Lenovo Pro tablet was well-received. ($199 Surface RT rumor[View news story]
    If Lenovo sells 1 Billion tablets (10x the amount of Ipads sold), ARMH will make between 35 to 75 million in "revenues". In so many words, all of the growth Arm will ever have will not justify today's $13 Billion valuation.
    Aug 17, 2012. 02:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Question on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR): After execs pointedly said they would build up inventory of Keurig machines ahead of the holiday season, the company's products are finding their way onto clearance sites. Meaningless factoid or a disturbing trend? (h/t Ron Reuven, Reuven Enterprises) [View news story]
    its not the price that makes it clearance but the outlet that is selling it.
    Aug 17, 2012. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
465 Comments
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