The Fish Rots From The Head Down, And Arm Holdings Is Starting To Smell [View article]
getgl,
the intel competition may not hurt ARM sales today, but the fact that intel has clearly shown signs of commitment to the mobile market tells me that it wont just give up because they're not leading as of day one. if you know its overvalued, isnt the continued success you are expecting from them already factored into the price by your own determination?
The Fish Rots From The Head Down, And Arm Holdings Is Starting To Smell [View article]
mrtanner69
first let me thank your for following my request of making some relevant comments before the personal insults. Now lets address some of them
re servers: regardless of how much energy they consume, this has no effect on ARMH today, as their IP is not expected to reach the server market until sometime in 2014, possibly later. further, the server market is not going to affect their top or bottom line anyway since its not a very big market in comparison to the mobile market. While 2bb mobile units are sold each year, the server market is only around 10 million. even if ARMH were to kill intel and amd right out of the gate, earning 50% of the marketshare, the royalty revenue for arm will only be about $10 million. So although it'll have the ability to hurt competitors, it wont have the same level of benefit for ARMH and its shareholders.
re brand: I believe you are missing the point. Its not that every average consumer in the world needs to know your brand for you to have Long Term success, its that the lack of brand recognition that ARMH has by the end user will make it very simple and risk free for the manufacturer/licensee to replace them. People are not buying an Iphone or android based phone because of ARMH. they are buying it because of Apple, Samsung, Google etc. I've been investing and running businesses for more than 14 years and can assure you that a brand is much more important than you give it credit for in your comment.
mkt dominance: if you look at any of the technology companies that ruled the world 10, 20, 30 years ago, they are no longer the leaders, and many are no longer around. Technological leads do not need "trillions" of years to be surpassed. ARM will be surpassed within a few years, possibly less. Thats just my opinion, and I already know what you think of it.
our research and relevance of MIPS sale: because you are very obviously long ARMH you are not allowing yourself to become objective. the sale of a competitor (failed or otherwise) is a very relevant factor, whether its a competing business, patent, or real estate. traditional valuation requires comps in order to have a basis. MIPS is a comp to ARMH.
ARMH competition: if you truly believe that ARM will be the leader forever, then there is nothing I can say that will help you. you should do a bit more research regarding how dominant ARM really is. Intel has already had several design wins with Orange, Lava, Lenovo, motorola. when recent benchmark chip performance reports by Anandtech show that Intel is not far behind ARM when considering energy efficiency during web browsing, graphics, battery life etc. I'm not pitching you Intel here, all I am saying is that expecting any company to remain #1 for an extended period of time is going to get you in trouble.
mgmt reliance on analysts: regardless of which end of the industry a company is on, competent management is supposed to know more about their own company and customers than the analysts that are asking them questions. There is no other way to put it.
professor: I have passed on the job offers because they would take me away from being able to spend this quality time with you.
No Surprise: The Netbook Has Now Died [View article]
Interesting note from Deutsche ARMH downgrade today
We expect ARM to gain share in netbooks (7% in 2013 to 40% in 2020), notebooks (5% in 2013 to 30% in 2020), desktops (2% in 2015 to 20% in 2020) and servers (5% in 2014 to 30% in 2020).
They expect armh to gain share in netbooks despite netbooks being a part of industry that is obsolete. I guess the powerless armh chip will get what he can.
Is ARM Holdings Growing Into Its Valuation? [View article]
although you are relatively bearish on ARMH, I still think you're actually too optimistic about their future. Their business flaws have begun to materialize (despite bull disagreeing based on recent stock performance), and the 800lb gorilla (INTC) has made a very loud statement that they are targeting ARMH's business. The OEM's that use ARMH use it purely because of its price. What bulls dont realize is that because the OEM's know that they practically control ARMH's future in their hands, they have constantly and successfully pressured them to lower the price further each year to the point where ARMH can no longer grow sales as they used to despite selling billions more chips. This is why despite ARMH being only a 800mm revenue business (small in semi conductor terms) they already announced during the last analyst conference that future growth will be cut in half for royalties (10-15%) and licensing (5-10%). ARMH has continued to comply because they know that 1. all technology leadership is temporary 2. they have no brand, so better, cheaper or faster will easily replace them at some point
Lastly, they have a very manipulative (an imo quite shady) way of reporting financials.
Note to anyone who is a bull, if you disagree or dislike my comments, please address the issues I listed above before insulting me. thanks.
An 'Organic' $5 Stock Investors Should Sink Their Teeth Into [View article]
I dont believe STKL has the intentions of selling their stake in Mascoma through the IPO and actually think they will be restricted from doing so for at least 6 months post IPO. this is a common restriction when a partially owned division of a parent company has a seperate IPO. Since they dont own the entire company, its unlikely they'll be able to issue mascoma shares to existing stkl shareholders, but shareholders will get a major benefit once the stake is monetized through the IPO as it becomes easier to realize that investment. Personally I would prefer they keep the stake until they get a value of at least $5/share for it, depending on how the business performs.
ARM-based (ARMH) Windows RT (MSFT) tablets will cost $200-$300 less than Intel/AMD-based Windows 8 Pro tablets, predicts Lenovo's (LNVGY.PK) North American chief, while adding he expects the latter to go for $600-$700. Such a pricing edge would leave RT systems, which don't support existing Windows software, on much better competitive footing relative to the iPad and Android tablets than Pro systems. A recently-announced Lenovo Pro tablet was well-received. ($199 Surface RT rumor) [View news story]
If Lenovo sells 1 Billion tablets (10x the amount of Ipads sold), ARMH will make between 35 to 75 million in "revenues". In so many words, all of the growth Arm will ever have will not justify today's $13 Billion valuation.
Question on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR): After execs pointedly said they would build up inventory of Keurig machines ahead of the holiday season, the company's products are finding their way onto clearance sites. Meaningless factoid or a disturbing trend? (h/t Ron Reuven, Reuven Enterprises) [View news story]
Blackjava, I hope you know that the plan you stated of getting rid of old to make room for vue "is not" what the company's management said.
Green Mountain: Disconnect Between Admitting Mistakes And The Financial Statements [View article]
Good article with some good questions. I wonder why non of the gmcr bulls are ever inclined to answer the questions, but instead make personal insults, accusations and meaningless remarks like "it's 25 going to gazillion in two months." some of the bulls sound exactly like gmcr management when asked tough questions like: "please explain your businesses current status and expectations".....answer: what a crock. Such manipulation, you short sellers are evil and are determined to bash this stock every time it gets to X price. I knew you crooks would do that.
So let's try this again, Does anyone belive in a civilized debate and the right to disagree or ask difficult questions?
Please try to answer the question before calling me a crook short seller. Thanks.
H-P (HPQ) says it won't initially launch ARM-based (ARMH) Windows RT (MSFT) tablets, and will focus on selling Intel (INTC) and AMD-based Windows 8 gear. H-P claims the decision was influenced by customer input, and suggests the backwards compatibility of Intel/AMD systems with existing Windows apps was a factor. Last week, the ARM version of Microsoft Surface - thinner, lighter, and probably less expensive - received more attention than the Intel version. (previous) [View news story]
ARMH is going to have a tough time getting their way if they continue building a "no brand" business.
Is Green Mountain Coffee's Inventory A Toxic Brew? [View article]
Kamig and For all of those who dismiss Sam purely based on his blunt and disturbing disclosure of being a felon etc, you should know that felons also make the best detectives. There was actually a famous movie made about a former felon Frank Abagnale jr called Catch Me If you can http://bit.ly/IGkWBh
Green Mountain: Have We Found A Bottom? [View article]
putting my opinion of $GMCR aside, your comparison between GMCR and SBUX earnings is completely flawed. this is because the earnings you are using for GMCR are Non-GAAP, vs SBUX GAAP earnings. this is a world of difference that GMCR wants the analyst and investor world to use. whether you care for GAAP vs Non GAAP is not really important. Its just that if you are making a comparison between two items, they both have to use the same metrics, otherwise one has an unfair advantage.
on a GAAP basis, a simple cashflow analysis would show GMCR losing money while SBUX is printing money.
Ivanhoe Mines: Nothing Much Has Changed [View article]
Very good article. IVN is a unique situation. If not in Mongolia, the shares would be drastically higher. We used to be big shareholders of the company, but Mongolia is just too greedy for my blood.
Sprint (S) CEO Dan Hesse says he still gets "crucified" by investors for his company's deal to carry the iPhone, due to the huge purchase commitments attached, and sees it as evidence of Wall Street's short-sightedness. "There is a disconnect with Wall Street because if you’re building a brand, it does take a long time," he says. But Sprint's board hasn't always agreed with Hesse's vision either. [View news story]
I'd say that his job is on the line for this contract. If it works, he will be deemed genius. If not, a disaster.
My Notes From The Green Mountain Class Action Lawsuit [View article]
nulhegan, not sure why your taking my article or short position so personally. we happen to have a different opinion than you, why is that so pathetic?
Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
stevewbright,
the business's value is being represented by their stock, and although a stock is not always the best representation of the status of a company, the fact still remains that if someone wanted to buy the entire ARMH business, they would have to buy all of the shares outstanding at a value of $13BB. obviously this is a hypothetical scenario, so dont be alarmed.
the bullet points in the article are the facts. whether you consider them catalysts or not is based on your own analysis methods. but if you're referring to a catalyst event such as a fraud, or bad earnings, or something of that nature as prerequisite for a stock to become a short, then we are on two different pages. Although a catalyst (for a long or short) is nice to have, it is not a prerequisite. In fact, the fact that ARMH reports the numbers that they do each quarter is a catalyst to us since their earnings do not support their valuation.
in regards to valuing the licenses and technology, I know exactly how their business of R & L works. just because I have a different opinion than you, does not mean I am the one that doesnt understand.
I never said that they're worthless, the main point was that the business is terrific, but overvalued. Overvalued does not mean worthless. on another note, it could become worthless in time if they do not change their commodotized business model, but thats another article.
Although I have been in the industry for the last 13 years, I never understood what a "hold" opinion/recommendation actually meant. If you dont think its going higher, then why own it. If you're not willing to buy more (for any reason other than not having capital) than why are you holding? In my book as an investor and professional, there are only two opinions. Buy or Sell.
lastly, your advise that I should get the CFA. well I dont have the CFA, but I have this:
Registered Options Principal (Series 4) General Securities Representative (Series 7), General Securities Principal (Series 24), Municipal Securities Principal (Series 53), Uniform Securities Agent State Law (Series 63), Investment Banking Representative (Series 79) Licensed Operations Professional (Series 99) Licensed Life Insurance Agent and Registered Financial Planner RFP® and CEO of Member FINRA Broker Dealer.
I'd be happy to post my bio if you'd like more info about my knowledge base.
The Fish Rots From The Head Down, And Arm Holdings Is Starting To Smell [View article]
the intel competition may not hurt ARM sales today, but the fact that intel has clearly shown signs of commitment to the mobile market tells me that it wont just give up because they're not leading as of day one. if you know its overvalued, isnt the continued success you are expecting from them already factored into the price by your own determination?
The Fish Rots From The Head Down, And Arm Holdings Is Starting To Smell [View article]
first let me thank your for following my request of making some relevant comments before the personal insults. Now lets address some of them
re servers: regardless of how much energy they consume, this has no effect on ARMH today, as their IP is not expected to reach the server market until sometime in 2014, possibly later. further, the server market is not going to affect their top or bottom line anyway since its not a very big market in comparison to the mobile market. While 2bb mobile units are sold each year, the server market is only around 10 million. even if ARMH were to kill intel and amd right out of the gate, earning 50% of the marketshare, the royalty revenue for arm will only be about $10 million. So although it'll have the ability to hurt competitors, it wont have the same level of benefit for ARMH and its shareholders.
re brand: I believe you are missing the point. Its not that every average consumer in the world needs to know your brand for you to have Long Term success, its that the lack of brand recognition that ARMH has by the end user will make it very simple and risk free for the manufacturer/licensee to replace them. People are not buying an Iphone or android based phone because of ARMH. they are buying it because of Apple, Samsung, Google etc. I've been investing and running businesses for more than 14 years and can assure you that a brand is much more important than you give it credit for in your comment.
mkt dominance: if you look at any of the technology companies that ruled the world 10, 20, 30 years ago, they are no longer the leaders, and many are no longer around. Technological leads do not need "trillions" of years to be surpassed. ARM will be surpassed within a few years, possibly less. Thats just my opinion, and I already know what you think of it.
our research and relevance of MIPS sale: because you are very obviously long ARMH you are not allowing yourself to become objective. the sale of a competitor (failed or otherwise) is a very relevant factor, whether its a competing business, patent, or real estate. traditional valuation requires comps in order to have a basis. MIPS is a comp to ARMH.
ARMH competition: if you truly believe that ARM will be the leader forever, then there is nothing I can say that will help you. you should do a bit more research regarding how dominant ARM really is. Intel has already had several design wins with Orange, Lava, Lenovo, motorola. when recent benchmark chip performance reports by Anandtech show that Intel is not far behind ARM when considering energy efficiency during web browsing, graphics, battery life etc. I'm not pitching you Intel here, all I am saying is that expecting any company to remain #1 for an extended period of time is going to get you in trouble.
mgmt reliance on analysts: regardless of which end of the industry a company is on, competent management is supposed to know more about their own company and customers than the analysts that are asking them questions. There is no other way to put it.
professor: I have passed on the job offers because they would take me away from being able to spend this quality time with you.
No Surprise: The Netbook Has Now Died [View article]
We expect ARM to gain share in netbooks (7% in 2013 to 40% in 2020), notebooks (5% in 2013 to 30% in 2020), desktops (2% in 2015 to 20% in 2020) and servers (5% in 2014 to 30% in 2020).
They expect armh to gain share in netbooks despite netbooks being a part of industry that is obsolete. I guess the powerless armh chip will get what he can.
Is ARM Holdings Growing Into Its Valuation? [View article]
1. all technology leadership is temporary
2. they have no brand, so better, cheaper or faster will easily replace them at some point
Lastly, they have a very manipulative (an imo quite shady) way of reporting financials.
Note to anyone who is a bull, if you disagree or dislike my comments, please address the issues I listed above before insulting me. thanks.
An 'Organic' $5 Stock Investors Should Sink Their Teeth Into [View article]
ARM-based (ARMH) Windows RT (MSFT) tablets will cost $200-$300 less than Intel/AMD-based Windows 8 Pro tablets, predicts Lenovo's (LNVGY.PK) North American chief, while adding he expects the latter to go for $600-$700. Such a pricing edge would leave RT systems, which don't support existing Windows software, on much better competitive footing relative to the iPad and Android tablets than Pro systems. A recently-announced Lenovo Pro tablet was well-received. ($199 Surface RT rumor) [View news story]
Question on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR): After execs pointedly said they would build up inventory of Keurig machines ahead of the holiday season, the company's products are finding their way onto clearance sites. Meaningless factoid or a disturbing trend? (h/t Ron Reuven, Reuven Enterprises) [View news story]
Green Mountain: Disconnect Between Admitting Mistakes And The Financial Statements [View article]
So let's try this again,
Does anyone belive in a civilized debate and the right to disagree or ask difficult questions?
Please try to answer the question before calling me a crook short seller. Thanks.
H-P (HPQ) says it won't initially launch ARM-based (ARMH) Windows RT (MSFT) tablets, and will focus on selling Intel (INTC) and AMD-based Windows 8 gear. H-P claims the decision was influenced by customer input, and suggests the backwards compatibility of Intel/AMD systems with existing Windows apps was a factor. Last week, the ARM version of Microsoft Surface - thinner, lighter, and probably less expensive - received more attention than the Intel version. (previous) [View news story]
Is Green Mountain Coffee's Inventory A Toxic Brew? [View article]
Green Mountain: Have We Found A Bottom? [View article]
on a GAAP basis, a simple cashflow analysis would show GMCR losing money while SBUX is printing money.
Ivanhoe Mines: Nothing Much Has Changed [View article]
Sprint (S) CEO Dan Hesse says he still gets "crucified" by investors for his company's deal to carry the iPhone, due to the huge purchase commitments attached, and sees it as evidence of Wall Street's short-sightedness. "There is a disconnect with Wall Street because if you’re building a brand, it does take a long time," he says. But Sprint's board hasn't always agreed with Hesse's vision either. [View news story]
My Notes From The Green Mountain Class Action Lawsuit [View article]
not sure why your taking my article or short position so personally. we happen to have a different opinion than you, why is that so pathetic?
Arm Holdings: A Terrific, Overvalued Business [View article]
the business's value is being represented by their stock, and although a stock is not always the best representation of the status of a company, the fact still remains that if someone wanted to buy the entire ARMH business, they would have to buy all of the shares outstanding at a value of $13BB. obviously this is a hypothetical scenario, so dont be alarmed.
the bullet points in the article are the facts. whether you consider them catalysts or not is based on your own analysis methods. but if you're referring to a catalyst event such as a fraud, or bad earnings, or something of that nature as prerequisite for a stock to become a short, then we are on two different pages. Although a catalyst (for a long or short) is nice to have, it is not a prerequisite. In fact, the fact that ARMH reports the numbers that they do each quarter is a catalyst to us since their earnings do not support their valuation.
in regards to valuing the licenses and technology, I know exactly how their business of R & L works. just because I have a different opinion than you, does not mean I am the one that doesnt understand.
I never said that they're worthless, the main point was that the business is terrific, but overvalued. Overvalued does not mean worthless. on another note, it could become worthless in time if they do not change their commodotized business model, but thats another article.
Although I have been in the industry for the last 13 years, I never understood what a "hold" opinion/recommendation actually meant. If you dont think its going higher, then why own it. If you're not willing to buy more (for any reason other than not having capital) than why are you holding? In my book as an investor and professional, there are only two opinions. Buy or Sell.
lastly, your advise that I should get the CFA. well I dont have the CFA, but I have this:
Registered Options Principal (Series 4)
General Securities Representative (Series 7),
General Securities Principal (Series 24),
Municipal Securities Principal (Series 53),
Uniform Securities Agent State Law (Series 63),
Investment Banking Representative (Series 79)
Licensed Operations Professional (Series 99)
Licensed Life Insurance Agent and Registered Financial Planner RFP®
and CEO of Member FINRA Broker Dealer.
I'd be happy to post my bio if you'd like more info about my knowledge base.