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Yaron Ron Reuven

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  • ARM Holdings: Growth Less Likely To Slow Down Soon [View article]
    How do you justify a $20+ billion valuation with only a $1 billion sales business, that even if successful at meeting all targets, will only generate $500 million more in sales over next 5 years?
    Apr 13 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARM Holdings Stock Is Overvalued By The Market [View article]
    Michael,

    I believe the $5 estimate is likely 100-300 percent higher than what I anticipate the average IoT device will carry. Although items like cars, washer/dryer, and other high priced devices will not be as pressuring on prices, the vast majority of the devices that will utilize these chips are much lower priced items (calculators, networking gear, fire alarms etc.) that in no way could afford to spend that much on the chip. Such a high price could likely be a double digit percentage of the overall manufacturing cost, which eliminates the business value of using ARM since they don't even manufacture the chip, which is a time sensitive matter all OEMs consider as part of their overall financial benefit analysis of using ARMH, INTC or anyone else.


    The second issue is a question I have regarding the 0.18 chip ARPU you mentioned. Since ARMH provided the number on their 10Q as something around 0.045 (which has had a steady decline over the past few years), may I know how did you come up with such a high number?

    Lastly, although were both on the same side of the ARMH trade, I believe I am much more bearish, and predict that they will ultimately end up like MIPS. further, one of the big reasons is the fact that they estimate royalties to be paid for current patents for many years, when reality is going to give the average patent a lifetime that's probably 75% shorter. This makes their business much mire vulnerable they they make it appear, and one that I think could have large drastic surprising drops in the future. Any thoughts would be appreciated.
    Apr 7 12:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Concede Defeat On ARM Holdings [View article]
    Cube monkey
    Being in the investment and investment management business for about 15 years, I'm always in the predicted valuation business. In fact, that's a great description from you because its what all investors are doing when they buy or sell an investment, regardless of whether they realize it or not. We buy because we believe the value will increase in the future and we sell short (or just sell to close out position) because we believe the value will decline in the future. So much simpler to write it than to actually do it, an I'm no perfect investor, I just have a system I don't steer away from.
    Nov 3 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Concede Defeat On ARM Holdings [View article]
    Dope threat,
    The key part of the argument that led me to believe its capitulation is when ashraf joined the crowd that says valuation doesn't matter. I guess the difference here is that as a long term investor deeply involved in the business I've heard this statement one too many times and eventually it was wrong 100% of the time. This has less to do with ARMH than really the overall overview of investing. Once investors take on investments that ignore the proper valuation they're bound to lose.
    Nov 2 07:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Concede Defeat On ARM Holdings [View article]
    Ashraf,

    Although I disagree with the valuation doesn't matter analysis, I understand that losing positions can have a bigger impact on people than just their portfolio balance. If you ever take some time off of tech and start learning about behavioral finance, one of the key things you'll learn is how much impact emotions have on investors subconsciously. Before any major change in a stocks trend, the most common and reliable event that occurs each time is the capitulation of the biggest bulls or bears. You've capitulated. That's not wrong or right, but rather a normal human emotion that drove a decision. I know that as a writer you have certain demands from readers that can sometimes affect the investor in you. My only two cents on that is to try to act as an investor first, writer second. Valuation always matters, you just have to wait for the market to agree with you.
    Nov 1 01:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason ARMH Plummeted After Earnings [View article]
    Although it's done on wall st all the time, estimating anything tech related will remain the same for 10 years is nothing short of wishful thinking.
    Oct 28 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason ARMH Plummeted After Earnings [View article]
    ARMH is grossly overvalued by any metric. Maybe investors are starting to wake up and see that
    Oct 27 07:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider Apple Supplier ARM And Hedge [View article]
    why anyone would pay 21x revenues for any company is beyond me, but to stay on the subject, although i understand your rationale of the highly irrational can become even more irrational, what about the risks with your argument. have you considered the other side of the trade or do you just have 100% confidence that there is no way ARMH will hit any hurdles?
    Oct 8 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARM: The Short Thesis Has Yet To Play Out [View article]
    Good article Ashraf. The only catalyst everyone is missing that will lead to momentum change the the coming massive increase in R&D and CapEx. ARM will need to do this to compete and East left right before this massive chage to business model and true profit margins are announced. It's coming, only a matter of time.
    Apr 5 12:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can ARM Holdings Sustain Its Multiples? [View article]
    bellapadula,

    in regards to ARM in servers, you must realize that even if they take 100% of the server business, completely eliminating Intel from its bread and butter, it would only mean another 2 or 3% more revenues for ARM. This is because of the nature of their business being in IP versus manufacturing. How many "billions in market cap" is another 15-30 "million" in "revenues" worth in reality? Investors are giving ARM a valuation based on a business that Intel has, eventhough the two are nothing alike.
    Mar 6 07:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can ARM Holdings Sustain Its Multiples? [View article]
    you mentioned insider selling but I dont think investors realize just how "MUCH" insider selling there is. In today's 6k filing by ARMH it showed the selling of over 4.75 million shares by insiders just in the month of February. I think you are much more bullish then they are, and they should know more about the company than just about anyone dont you think? http://bit.ly/12uxpH1
    Mar 6 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 61% Downside Ahead For ARM Holdings As Lofty Expectations Meet Harsh Reality [View article]
    In case anyone cares for insider selling of ARMH, execs just sold another 180,000 shares. I guess they all needed another house in London http://bit.ly/YaKeOa
    Feb 14 09:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 61% Downside Ahead For ARM Holdings As Lofty Expectations Meet Harsh Reality [View article]
    Ashraf,
    It should also be noted that insiders just recieved nearly $100mm worth of stock a couple of days ago. http://bit.ly/WK9bEc
    First, its because they all sold 50% or more of the shares simultaneously with the receipt of the free money.
    Second it's because had this gigantic reward been accounted for in Q4 earnings it would've put the company's entire years earning picture significantly lower than it was, and wiped out nearly all of quarters earnings. Just a thought.
    Feb 13 11:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARM Holdings: Future Growth Drivers Abound [View article]
    Rob,

    Again, you resort to your tough guy behind a computer attitude. Lets try this again, my argument was mainly focused on the valuation, not technology. if you read it without a bias, it would become apparent. The point of my comment was not really because I care about your opinion, but rather to know your opinion and actually have a educated debate. That actually helps bring viewers to your article, which is usually the point of writing an article for most people. But since you dont like any opinion that could throw a wrench into your analysis, you dont have to respond to me and just go back to your sandbox and play by yourself.

    PS. you need to grow up buddy
    Dec 24 02:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARM Holdings: Future Growth Drivers Abound [View article]
    Rob,

    I'm not sure why you find it neccessary to insult me instead of addressing the legitimate issues I brought up. They were based on your own numbers and arguement s. I know this is your first article, but the commentary section is for readers to question or add support to the arguement made in the article. Although your distaste for my opinion is clear, you should take the example I (and many other contributors on SA like Ashraf) of my article's commentary section into account. Even though your (and a few others) comments were continuously insulting, I still addressed them with a legitimate opinion like a grown up. If you don't care for conflicting opinions, and are just trying to pump a stock you like (or dislike)you should start a blog that doesn't allow comments. That way you are free to play in your own sandbox with no one to interfere with your toys.
    Dec 24 01:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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