ARM: The Short Thesis Has Yet To Play Out [View article]
Good article Ashraf. The only catalyst everyone is missing that will lead to momentum change the the coming massive increase in R&D and CapEx. ARM will need to do this to compete and East left right before this massive chage to business model and true profit margins are announced. It's coming, only a matter of time.
Can ARM Holdings Sustain Its Multiples? [View article]
bellapadula,
in regards to ARM in servers, you must realize that even if they take 100% of the server business, completely eliminating Intel from its bread and butter, it would only mean another 2 or 3% more revenues for ARM. This is because of the nature of their business being in IP versus manufacturing. How many "billions in market cap" is another 15-30 "million" in "revenues" worth in reality? Investors are giving ARM a valuation based on a business that Intel has, eventhough the two are nothing alike.
Can ARM Holdings Sustain Its Multiples? [View article]
you mentioned insider selling but I dont think investors realize just how "MUCH" insider selling there is. In today's 6k filing by ARMH it showed the selling of over 4.75 million shares by insiders just in the month of February. I think you are much more bullish then they are, and they should know more about the company than just about anyone dont you think? http://bit.ly/12uxpH1
61% Downside Ahead For ARM Holdings As Lofty Expectations Meet Harsh Reality [View article]
In case anyone cares for insider selling of ARMH, execs just sold another 180,000 shares. I guess they all needed another house in London http://bit.ly/YaKeOa
61% Downside Ahead For ARM Holdings As Lofty Expectations Meet Harsh Reality [View article]
Ashraf, It should also be noted that insiders just recieved nearly $100mm worth of stock a couple of days ago. http://bit.ly/WK9bEc First, its because they all sold 50% or more of the shares simultaneously with the receipt of the free money. Second it's because had this gigantic reward been accounted for in Q4 earnings it would've put the company's entire years earning picture significantly lower than it was, and wiped out nearly all of quarters earnings. Just a thought.
ARM Holdings: Future Growth Drivers Abound [View article]
Rob,
Again, you resort to your tough guy behind a computer attitude. Lets try this again, my argument was mainly focused on the valuation, not technology. if you read it without a bias, it would become apparent. The point of my comment was not really because I care about your opinion, but rather to know your opinion and actually have a educated debate. That actually helps bring viewers to your article, which is usually the point of writing an article for most people. But since you dont like any opinion that could throw a wrench into your analysis, you dont have to respond to me and just go back to your sandbox and play by yourself.
ARM Holdings: Future Growth Drivers Abound [View article]
Rob,
I'm not sure why you find it neccessary to insult me instead of addressing the legitimate issues I brought up. They were based on your own numbers and arguement s. I know this is your first article, but the commentary section is for readers to question or add support to the arguement made in the article. Although your distaste for my opinion is clear, you should take the example I (and many other contributors on SA like Ashraf) of my article's commentary section into account. Even though your (and a few others) comments were continuously insulting, I still addressed them with a legitimate opinion like a grown up. If you don't care for conflicting opinions, and are just trying to pump a stock you like (or dislike)you should start a blog that doesn't allow comments. That way you are free to play in your own sandbox with no one to interfere with your toys.
ARM Holdings: Future Growth Drivers Abound [View article]
There are two problems with this (and all other) armh bull arguments. First it relies too much on the future. As your article stated, armh has a 1.2 PEG based on 2014 earnings. That's two years from now and assumes today's tech and the markets valuation acceptance will be the same in two years from now. With all due respect, both are a naive assumption in my view. Second is that all valuation and future projection only justify "today" price, which means that at best the stock will be dead money since too much of the uncertain future is priced into today's price.
ARM Holdings: Buyout Rumor Fuels Lucrative Short Opportunity [View article]
Good article Ashraf. To put more perspective for ARMH investors on why earnings matter, if Intel bought ARM with its current cashflow vs $17,000,000,000 valuation, it would take them over 85 years to break even on the deal. So if they like what they heard from HPQ Autonamy deal (also UK based company using loose IFRS Accounting) they should jump right into it and confirm their demise along with other silly tech buyers. 10 years in tech is a lifetime, 85 years may as well be a different planet.
The Fish Rots From The Head Down, And Arm Holdings Is Starting To Smell [View article]
Were still short and don't believe we're wrong. If you think a $880 million in total sales business deserves a $16.5 Billion valuation that's fine. I disagree.
The Fish Rots From The Head Down, And Arm Holdings Is Starting To Smell [View article]
I never mentioned whether i was successful or not but i guess You're right, anyone who posts anything on a website is unsuccessful. I'm going to go back to my cardboard box now. Thanks for reading guys.
The Fish Rots From The Head Down, And Arm Holdings Is Starting To Smell [View article]
Edward S,
Thank you for commenting, and seeing the debate for what it is. For some reason many inexperienced (and immature) investors seem to believe that every bull article is genius while every bear is a manipulative x%#^£<}. All were doing here is pointing out some issues we believe make a good arguement for why were short the stock. It's not investment advice, it's not manipulation it's just free info one can agree or disagree with, but most of all debate in a civilized manner. I guess everyone feels tough behind the safety of their computer screen to act like wild animals.
The Fish Rots From The Head Down, And Arm Holdings Is Starting To Smell [View article]
chipset,
again your information is incorrect. Their past growth was much higher than 15%, they are now expecting slower growth. The fact that they dont outright say that they are slowing is part of my argument that they are manipulative. Go read last 7 years worth of reports. I have, you should do the same, and then we can both be on the same page with the same weapons for the debate of whether ARM will go to a million or close to nothing.
The Fish Rots From The Head Down, And Arm Holdings Is Starting To Smell [View article]
mrtanner,
you've obviously never have run a business since you dont know how to calculate margins. if you make $1 per book, it does not make it a a $1 margin. what if the cost of producing the book is $9? when you run a business there are such things called employees, overhead for lease/finance, and many other fun things an owner has to pay. another item that is a little more unique about technology companies is Research & Devlopment as well as Capital Exenditure. if you actually spend a minute reading my thesis instead of telling yourself that your IQ is being increased by the number of insults you type behind you tough computer, then you would realize that I specifically stated that due to the competition, I believe that ARMH will be forced to increased their spending on R&D and CapEx. if you look at the most recent earnings reports you would see that the trend has already begun. I know its difficult for you to have an adult debate but go ahead and put some big boy pants on, stop with the insults, read some more on your tough computer, and come back to me with some real information we can have a civilized debate about.
The Fish Rots From The Head Down, And Arm Holdings Is Starting To Smell [View article]
I just showed you how these details can be found in their filings in the previous comment. although they do not publish prices per specific product, it is pretty simple to figure out the trend of prices by either using some arithmetic or just calling their investor relations and asking them. I've done my homework, you should do yours instead of making ridiculous statements and insulting me for no reason.
ARM: The Short Thesis Has Yet To Play Out [View article]
Can ARM Holdings Sustain Its Multiples? [View article]
in regards to ARM in servers, you must realize that even if they take 100% of the server business, completely eliminating Intel from its bread and butter, it would only mean another 2 or 3% more revenues for ARM. This is because of the nature of their business being in IP versus manufacturing. How many "billions in market cap" is another 15-30 "million" in "revenues" worth in reality? Investors are giving ARM a valuation based on a business that Intel has, eventhough the two are nothing alike.
Can ARM Holdings Sustain Its Multiples? [View article]
61% Downside Ahead For ARM Holdings As Lofty Expectations Meet Harsh Reality [View article]
61% Downside Ahead For ARM Holdings As Lofty Expectations Meet Harsh Reality [View article]
It should also be noted that insiders just recieved nearly $100mm worth of stock a couple of days ago. http://bit.ly/WK9bEc
First, its because they all sold 50% or more of the shares simultaneously with the receipt of the free money.
Second it's because had this gigantic reward been accounted for in Q4 earnings it would've put the company's entire years earning picture significantly lower than it was, and wiped out nearly all of quarters earnings. Just a thought.
ARM Holdings: Future Growth Drivers Abound [View article]
Again, you resort to your tough guy behind a computer attitude. Lets try this again, my argument was mainly focused on the valuation, not technology. if you read it without a bias, it would become apparent. The point of my comment was not really because I care about your opinion, but rather to know your opinion and actually have a educated debate. That actually helps bring viewers to your article, which is usually the point of writing an article for most people. But since you dont like any opinion that could throw a wrench into your analysis, you dont have to respond to me and just go back to your sandbox and play by yourself.
PS. you need to grow up buddy
ARM Holdings: Future Growth Drivers Abound [View article]
I'm not sure why you find it neccessary to insult me instead of addressing the legitimate issues I brought up. They were based on your own numbers and arguement s. I know this is your first article, but the commentary section is for readers to question or add support to the arguement made in the article. Although your distaste for my opinion is clear, you should take the example I (and many other contributors on SA like Ashraf) of my article's commentary section into account. Even though your (and a few others) comments were continuously insulting, I still addressed them with a legitimate opinion like a grown up. If you don't care for conflicting opinions, and are just trying to pump a stock you like (or dislike)you should start a blog that doesn't allow comments. That way you are free to play in your own sandbox with no one to interfere with your toys.
ARM Holdings: Future Growth Drivers Abound [View article]
ARM Holdings: Buyout Rumor Fuels Lucrative Short Opportunity [View article]
The Fish Rots From The Head Down, And Arm Holdings Is Starting To Smell [View article]
The Fish Rots From The Head Down, And Arm Holdings Is Starting To Smell [View article]
The Fish Rots From The Head Down, And Arm Holdings Is Starting To Smell [View article]
Thank you for commenting, and seeing the debate for what it is. For some reason many inexperienced (and immature) investors seem to believe that every bull article is genius while every bear is a manipulative x%#^£<}. All were doing here is pointing out some issues we believe make a good arguement for why were short the stock. It's not investment advice, it's not manipulation it's just free info one can agree or disagree with, but most of all debate in a civilized manner. I guess everyone feels tough behind the safety of their computer screen to act like wild animals.
The Fish Rots From The Head Down, And Arm Holdings Is Starting To Smell [View article]
again your information is incorrect. Their past growth was much higher than 15%, they are now expecting slower growth. The fact that they dont outright say that they are slowing is part of my argument that they are manipulative. Go read last 7 years worth of reports. I have, you should do the same, and then we can both be on the same page with the same weapons for the debate of whether ARM will go to a million or close to nothing.
The Fish Rots From The Head Down, And Arm Holdings Is Starting To Smell [View article]
you've obviously never have run a business since you dont know how to calculate margins. if you make $1 per book, it does not make it a a $1 margin. what if the cost of producing the book is $9? when you run a business there are such things called employees, overhead for lease/finance, and many other fun things an owner has to pay. another item that is a little more unique about technology companies is Research & Devlopment as well as Capital Exenditure. if you actually spend a minute reading my thesis instead of telling yourself that your IQ is being increased by the number of insults you type behind you tough computer, then you would realize that I specifically stated that due to the competition, I believe that ARMH will be forced to increased their spending on R&D and CapEx. if you look at the most recent earnings reports you would see that the trend has already begun. I know its difficult for you to have an adult debate but go ahead and put some big boy pants on, stop with the insults, read some more on your tough computer, and come back to me with some real information we can have a civilized debate about.
The Fish Rots From The Head Down, And Arm Holdings Is Starting To Smell [View article]