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  • BlackBerry: Why Store Checks Are Meaningless For Analyses [View article]
    I have written an article about customer to customer uptake if you are interested.

    http://bit.ly/11Igzns
    Mar 26, 2013. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Tanks: Now What? [View article]
    This is too easy - what do you do if goes up 30% or down 25%?
    Mar 26, 2013. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Why Store Checks Are Meaningless For Analyses [View article]
    If those 20,000 stores sold just one Z10 a day, that ='s 600,000 per month and 7.2M per year. Perhaps an equal number from Verizon would produce 14.4M. Throw in a few from Sprint and T-mobile and you get 16M. Add gov't, enterprise, BestBuy, Costco, Walwart. You do the math.


    Sometimes a small fraction of sales = a very large number.
    Mar 26, 2013. 01:55 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Why Store Checks Are Meaningless For Analyses [View article]
    That's the secret of both great hockey player's and great investors. They have the innate ability to synthesize data and are first to arrive at the right spot. Nice insight JS99.
    Mar 26, 2013. 01:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Z10: Zero Sold On Friday, But None Left On Sunday [View article]
    Thanks for an intriguing article - your findings seem to be an honest reporting with bias - leave it for the reader to make up their own mind.

    Good stuff!
    Mar 25, 2013. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did You Really Expect People To Queue Up To Buy The Blackberry Z10? [View article]
    Blackberry has the perfect time right now. With new phones announced but not in the marketplace loyal Samsung and iPhone users are likely to delay purchases/upgrades. Those going to any cellular store the next three months are more than likely to be device neutral. They will find that the Z10 is the best available device today.
    Mar 25, 2013. 01:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Z10: Zero Sold On Friday, But None Left On Sunday [View article]
    Thanks to all the contributors - I think we are seeing the power of the web and data sharing. Individuals collecting data and presenting here start to paint an interesting picture. I'm starting to see the value in 'big data'
    Mar 25, 2013. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Z10: Zero Sold On Friday, But None Left On Sunday [View article]
    Working off your numbers is sounds like 10 phones per store and 6.7 sales per store. I understand that there are in the neigborhood of 20,000 AT&T stores plus Best Buy, Costo, and a few others. For the sake of argument I'll say 30,000 outlets selling 6 phones = 180,000 sold on first week-end. On top of this you would add some pre-sales, say 100,000. Business sales of any volume will not be over the counter at retail outlets.

    Now I'm going to assume that sales are steady at this rate. ( Any one realistically purchasing a SG3 or Iphone 5 when new offerings are only a month or three away? not likely) 180,000 times 4.25 = 765,000 retail phones in a month. Plus corporate sales of 100,000 = 865,000 monthly . This is all based on 3 days sales not the entire first week sales. Next week Verizon will be selling to both business and retail customers. Then T-mobile joins in.

    To be conservative, I'll ball park estimate 750,000 - 1,500,000 per month. In 6 weeks, add in some Q10 sales and I'll project that this will at a minimum prevent any drop off in sales and more likely raise retail sales to 800,000 -1,600,000 per month.

    Now keep in mind, all this is happening while dedicated Iphone and Samsung users await their new devices. Those going in to search out smartphones are likely to be open to looking at a new device. Their choices are the latest offering from BlackBerry or old offerings from the big two .

    Over 12 months we could be looking at sales of 9M - 19M in the US.
    Mar 25, 2013. 09:09 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is An Ecosystem And Why Does It Matter To Smartphone Makers? [View article]
    Switching Costs do exist as do switching benefits. For many years I used PC at work and at home. In spite of the fact that I couldn't run some of necessary software - I purchased an Imac 4-5 years ago.

    My old PC needed a new hard drive - which required a new operating system It was a personal inflection point. For a number of years I had considered switching - one day I bit the bullet and did it in spite of costs, time to learn a new system, lack of available software.

    Inflection points happen at personal and global levels. Blackberry has gone from being undesirable to being in the game, with a unique operating system and user experience. Apple has prospered through the development of the ipod, iphone, and ipad. They were all 'must have' devices and sought after by 'early adopters'. Samsung has show that good products by other vendors can be successfully sold to the 80% of consumers that are not 'early adopters'

    I question the lock in when the majority of consumers around the world that have never owned any iproduct. I also question how much longer, if any 'early adopters' will jump at the opportunity to be first in line to buy the 'iwatch' etc. Do you plan on getting an watch? - We know it will compliment your ecosystem.
    Mar 23, 2013. 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Higher Returns, Avoid These 2 Investment Biases [View article]
    Andrew - Regardless of whether or not you still hold BlackBerry - psychology is continuing to play a huge role in the stock price. Any observations you care to share?
    Mar 23, 2013. 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Tanks: Now What? [View article]
    Seems to me that both Samsung and Blackberry both use similar Qualcom components. Which other specs re you referring? As to the next round of phones - both Samsung and BlackBerry have announced new products to be released later in the year. While we have a good idea about what will be in the new SG4 - BlackBerry's solution is still under wraps.

    Ashraf - You are knowledgeable of the semiconductor industry - Can you shine some light on this?
    Mar 23, 2013. 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Make Money In Stocks With A Stagnant Economy [View article]
    A very insightful piece. Lots to think about. Thanks.
    Mar 22, 2013. 02:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear And Greed In The BlackBerry Jungle [View article]
    gl1000
    Thanks for the info
    Mar 21, 2013. 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear And Greed In The BlackBerry Jungle [View article]
    Thanks Camilo for taking time to write

    A well written piece which which at first seems to balance risks and opportunities. This is also a well practiced short tactic - when the fear factor no longer works - its the good cop / bad cop routine. It's the bit from 'The Art of War' - disguise your true intentions. Be their friend.

    Read this carefully - absorb it all - and take it with a grain of salt. What is the true purpose of this comment?
    Mar 21, 2013. 05:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear And Greed In The BlackBerry Jungle [View article]
    Agreed!
    Mar 21, 2013. 05:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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