This is a valuable trading instrument, but not for the average investor. These instruments are among the most "derived" of derivatives. Imagine an inverse ETN on futures on an index calculated on options intrisic volatility on stocks from the S&P500 index. I don't think than half of the people buying this stuff understand the concept, without speaking of those who have a rough idea of the mathematical model. Beware of considering volatility as an asset class, even if it is fashionable and *currently* profitable.
Don't Get Caught Up In Panic Selling And Capitulation In Precious Metals [View article]
You're just forgetting that the market can be irrational longer than we are solvent. Breaking the 1430 mark (2010 resistance) was a message: we are not in a consolidation any more, but in a liquidation. I have sold without panic (and with a decent gain since 2008, even if it is frustrating). Just because it is the rational decision when the market turns irrational. "Fundamentals" and "production costs" will make no sense in the next couple of months. As the prices always go down by the elevator and go up by the stairs,we will have all the time to buy again. Return is less important than drawdown. That is a part of money management and helps to sleep well.
The problem of France is demographic: more than 50% of the voting population either works in the public / semi-public sector (with a guarantee of lifetime employment), or is retired. You cannot expect anything from a country as long as more than half of the voters have a past to defend and not a future to build. Small and medium entrepreneurs are slaughtered by taxes and social costs to feed the system. It is still one of the best countries for education in science and engineering, and one of the worst to start a business. The country is loosing some rich people because of taxes, but the worst is that it is loosing lots of brains fleeing abroad. The solutions exist but don't pass the social crash-test: massive cuts in public employees, increasing the age of retirement, and immigration of a new working class.
Barrick Gold Dealt Setback At Mega Mine By Chilean Court Ruling [View article]
Thanks for this factual and well documented article. Just one thing: "indigenous communities" include decently educated people, some of them agricultural business owners in the whole watershed. They can read, write, use a camera and make websites like this one: http://bit.ly/Yi3KtG
Sell In May (3): A Strategy Worth More Than 25% A Year Since 2001 [View article]
Hello redrocker. This is a mistake in this article. The months and tickers of two lines have been crossed. Neither the editor nor the readers have notified me. Thanks a lot, I will submit a correction if it is not too late.
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
This is a coal mine A.L., you're right on this point: very dark and risk of explosion. But the guarantee to loose slowly in a direction is not a guarantee to make money the other way for two reasons: - on the short side you can quickly reach the margin call with that stuff. - my experience is with borrowing fees from 3 to 9%. Heavy drag.
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
Hi kaysmooth. The Laws of Gravity are toward the earth for all leveraged ETFs, regular and inverse (and even more for the inverse ones). Just have a look at a 3-year chart. Holding them short is a risk to loose money quickly, holding them long is a guarantee to loose money slowly. They are basically day- and swing-trading instruments, and should not be kept more than a couple of weeks, except if you have a backtested model that justifies it.
Sell In May? How Long-Term Investors Can Profit [View article]
Hi Martin, good article. Two complements: More recent and exhaustive data about seasonals: http://bit.ly/XgoXGW A strategy that I have described last year: http://bit.ly/KYpDKd (much safer and lower drawdown with an additional market timing rule not described in the article) Regards Fred
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
Thanks for your comment A.L. That is what I was thinking before having one side bought out by my broker and before this backtest showing a 80% drawdown.
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
Hi Chris, I'm happy that you are a lucky man :-) Your success might come from smart rules you have added (a market timing on the volatility lowers the risk for ex). In physics luck has a scientific name: non-ergodicity. This means that the average in time of a phenomenon at a specific place (or for a specific individual) may be completely different than the average among all places (or individuals). This game is highly non-ergodic. Before doing these backtests I have followed this strategy about 18 months ago during several months with 3 pairs (TNA/TZA, AGQ/ZSL and DRN/DRV, chosen for a lower borrowing rate at that time). In fact I have made a little profit but I came to the conclusion that the reward was not worth the risk.The forced buyback is a real story on my Interactive Brokers account on TNA or TZA (can't remember). The instrument was theoretically shortable at the same time. I was lucky enough to take a very small loss. Regards Fred
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
Thanks for your comment faustius. The problem is that it gives the illusion to work with simulations on "good" starting dates. And when it doesn't work, it really falls hard.
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
Beware The Sweet Siren Song Of XIV [View article]
These instruments are among the most "derived" of derivatives. Imagine an inverse ETN on futures on an index calculated on options intrisic volatility on stocks from the S&P500 index. I don't think than half of the people buying this stuff understand the concept, without speaking of those who have a rough idea of the mathematical model. Beware of considering volatility as an asset class, even if it is fashionable and *currently* profitable.
Don't Get Caught Up In Panic Selling And Capitulation In Precious Metals [View article]
Short France? [View article]
Barrick Gold Dealt Setback At Mega Mine By Chilean Court Ruling [View article]
Just one thing: "indigenous communities" include decently educated people, some of them agricultural business owners in the whole watershed. They can read, write, use a camera and make websites like this one:
http://bit.ly/Yi3KtG
Sell In May (3): A Strategy Worth More Than 25% A Year Since 2001 [View article]
Sell In May (3): A Strategy Worth More Than 25% A Year Since 2001 [View article]
This is a mistake in this article. The months and tickers of two lines have been crossed. Neither the editor nor the readers have notified me.
Thanks a lot, I will submit a correction if it is not too late.
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
- on the short side you can quickly reach the margin call with that stuff.
- my experience is with borrowing fees from 3 to 9%. Heavy drag.
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
Sell In May? How Long-Term Investors Can Profit [View article]
Two complements:
More recent and exhaustive data about seasonals:
http://bit.ly/XgoXGW
A strategy that I have described last year:
http://bit.ly/KYpDKd
(much safer and lower drawdown with an additional market timing rule not described in the article)
Regards
Fred
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
Regards
Fred
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]