Developments In China Explain The End Of Gold's Rise [View article]
Beware of your wishes. You and your family may not like a world where Gold is worth 5 or 10k/oz. Gold is an insurance: Buy it, forget about the price and pray you will never need it.
The problem of France is demographic: more than 50% of the voting population either works in the public / semi-public sector (with a guarantee of lifetime employment), or is retired. You cannot expect anything from a country as long as more than half of the voters have a past to defend and not a future to build. Small and medium entrepreneurs are slaughtered by taxes and social costs to feed the system. It is still one of the best countries for education in science and engineering, and one of the worst to start a business. The country is loosing some rich people because of taxes, but the worst is that it is loosing lots of brains fleeing abroad. The solutions exist but don't pass the social crash-test: massive cuts in public employees, increasing the age of retirement, and immigration of a new working class.
The Gold Price Tumbles But Don't Worry [View article]
"you never know what's behind a move like this" Yes we know what's behind with a high probability. Stop hunting using HFT in low liquidity hours is a juicy business model. The golden pump works well for years, and the silver pump much better. And we also have an idea about who is behind. Just check the short side in the COT report.
Nomenclature: Will Herbalife Copy Nuskin? [View article]
Hi Matt, do you have a consistent thesis to explain that the fastest growing market for HLF is China (32% last year), whereas MLM is illegal in China and HLF has a classic retail business model there ? Or maybe they really have good products at a fair price? Data here: http://bit.ly/13mZ87w Disclosure: I don't care about the stock price. no HLF position, no HLF distributor, no HLF staff or subcontractor. Consumer of HLF nutritional supplements for 8 years.
Well documented article. I have just read this morning (but not verified) that the commercial shorts on the Comex have increased once again. We may visit the support in the next couple of months. Like backseatdriver, I'm waiting for your next article on the goat/silver ratio ;-)
Will 2013 Be The Year That Gold Dies? [View article]
not only China: Russia, Mexico and some asian countries. George, I think your price "out of the ground" excludes financial costs such as debt, taxes,... Canadian and US miners have the cheapest production costs, but South African mines have an average breakeven above 1600. Owning only gold is not very smart, neither is selling now.
This is a valuable trading instrument, but not for the average investor. These instruments are among the most "derived" of derivatives. Imagine an inverse ETN on futures on an index calculated on options intrisic volatility on stocks from the S&P500 index. I don't think than half of the people buying this stuff understand the concept, without speaking of those who have a rough idea of the mathematical model. Beware of considering volatility as an asset class, even if it is fashionable and *currently* profitable.
In Defense Of Herbalife: Arguments Against Ackman's Short Thesis [View article]
Ackman is building his own Ponzi scheme, with a marketing website selling his idea to the public. He has to convince enough speculators to unload his shorts before the corner. 97% of the shares are in strong hands. The huge volumes are opportunist day trading and HFT. Ackman is shorting about a quarter of the float, 8 times the really available "weak-hands" float. What do you think will happen? The last to stay short will be scammed. This is the ponzi scheme in the story. This more his covered short play and his presentation, that's very, very clever. But that's robbery. Disclosure: no position in HLF but considering buying my ticket for the short squeeze.
Seasonal Trends For 8 Metals Including Gold And Silver [View article]
Thank you for your comment Venerability. I MAY NOT use Seasonals in this sector this year. This is a summary of an historical survey I did for myself last year, and I share it now on SA. There is no speculation about this year in this article. It is not event driven, and not only about precious metals. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to add this precision.
Sell In May: A Strategy Worth 26% A Year Since 2001 [View article]
Thanks for your interest Puck. I'm afraid I can't give you a scientifically argumented answer. Seasonal effects on the stock market are documented for about 1 century. They have survived in spite of arbitrage and HFT. I can just tell you they work not only for 11 years, but for a lot more. Maybe not with the same average return. If you're afraid of interest rates, you may go cash or short the index instead of the long TLT position, or a mix of both. To be honest I don't follow this strategy myself because I have better ones. But it it a good entry point for exploring the seasonal effects. You can use this article in different ways : exploring further in the seasonal effects (I have one similar strategy with another index that returned 35% a year with a lower drawdown length). Or you may modify existing strategies to take advantage of the seasons.
Thanks for your comment. I apologize for my english which is far from perfect (3rd language). About the content, we can't ignore that search engines and social media indicators are more and more used in finance. It's a new field to explore.
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
Hi Chris, I'm happy that you are a lucky man :-) Your success might come from smart rules you have added (a market timing on the volatility lowers the risk for ex). In physics luck has a scientific name: non-ergodicity. This means that the average in time of a phenomenon at a specific place (or for a specific individual) may be completely different than the average among all places (or individuals). This game is highly non-ergodic. Before doing these backtests I have followed this strategy about 18 months ago during several months with 3 pairs (TNA/TZA, AGQ/ZSL and DRN/DRV, chosen for a lower borrowing rate at that time). In fact I have made a little profit but I came to the conclusion that the reward was not worth the risk.The forced buyback is a real story on my Interactive Brokers account on TNA or TZA (can't remember). The instrument was theoretically shortable at the same time. I was lucky enough to take a very small loss. Regards Fred
Developments In China Explain The End Of Gold's Rise [View article]
Short France? [View article]
The Gold Price Tumbles But Don't Worry [View article]
Yes we know what's behind with a high probability. Stop hunting using HFT in low liquidity hours is a juicy business model. The golden pump works well for years, and the silver pump much better. And we also have an idea about who is behind. Just check the short side in the COT report.
The World Is Fat: The Law Of Supply And Demand And The Western Diet [View article]
Nomenclature: Will Herbalife Copy Nuskin? [View article]
Or maybe they really have good products at a fair price?
Data here:
http://bit.ly/13mZ87w
Disclosure: I don't care about the stock price. no HLF position, no HLF distributor, no HLF staff or subcontractor. Consumer of HLF nutritional supplements for 8 years.
Silver Is Not Quite Ready To Rally [View article]
Will 2013 Be The Year That Gold Dies? [View article]
George, I think your price "out of the ground" excludes financial costs such as debt, taxes,... Canadian and US miners have the cheapest production costs, but South African mines have an average breakeven above 1600.
Owning only gold is not very smart, neither is selling now.
Beware The Sweet Siren Song Of XIV [View article]
These instruments are among the most "derived" of derivatives. Imagine an inverse ETN on futures on an index calculated on options intrisic volatility on stocks from the S&P500 index. I don't think than half of the people buying this stuff understand the concept, without speaking of those who have a rough idea of the mathematical model. Beware of considering volatility as an asset class, even if it is fashionable and *currently* profitable.
In Defense Of Herbalife: Arguments Against Ackman's Short Thesis [View article]
Seasonal Trends For 8 Metals Including Gold And Silver [View article]
I MAY NOT use Seasonals in this sector this year. This is a summary of an historical survey I did for myself last year, and I share it now on SA. There is no speculation about this year in this article. It is not event driven, and not only about precious metals. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to add this precision.
Sell In May: A Strategy Worth 26% A Year Since 2001 [View article]
Gold: Who Wants To Buy And To Sell [View article]
How To Design A Bias-Free Dividend Strategy [View article]
What Happens To Precious Metals And Bank Stocks In A Post-Euro World? [View article]
Short Selling A Pair Of Leveraged ETFs: A Goldmine Or A Bad Idea? [View article]
Regards
Fred