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Yuanxi Zhang

 
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  • Chiquita Brands: The Deal With Fyffes Is Probably Dead; A Higher Offer Is Likely [View article]
    Here is a good explanation
    http://bit.ly/1lhPkL5
    Aug 20 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSP Holdings Will Reward Short Sellers Soon [View article]
    Thank you for your kind words Chris!
    Aug 19 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSP Holdings Will Reward Short Sellers Soon [View article]
    WSP Holdings remains in a bad shape following the extension of the go-private transaction. In March 2014, the go-private offer was assigned to a Russian financial buyer, which subsequently lapsed on May 31st, 2014. In addition, WSP Holdings announced a disposal of two production facilities (Mengfeng and Liaoyang) in March. In July 2014, WSP Holdings restructured a troubled manufacturing facility in Bazhou and transferred a majority stake of the facility to the local government.

    The macro environment for OCTG companies remains challenging. In February 2014, US Department of Commerce announced preliminary anti-dumping tariff for OCTG exporters in eight countries including Thailand. WSP Pipe (Thailand) was the main investigation target in Thailand. Since WSP Pipe did not respond to Department of Commerce's request for information, Department of Commerce automatically applied the adverse facts to the company and suspended the liquidation of all entries of OCTG products from Thailand until further notice. In July 2014, the Department of Commerce announced the final verdict and WSP Pipe will pay a tariff of 118.32% if its OCTG sells in the US market, which will definitely hurt the profitability of the subsidiary.

    Meanwhile, the anti-corruption investigation in PetroChina has caused 45 mid-level managers to fall under government control. We think the continued investigation is likely to cause more disruption to PetroChina's operation, which in turn affects WSP Holdings.

    WSP Holdings has not reported quarterly reports since Q1 2013. Without the latest financial statements, it is difficult to quantify the exact value of the company. However, from the news we find, we conclude the company is struggling. Therefore, we doubt that the company has much value left for shareholders and we think a new go-private deal at the previous offer price of $3.20 is almost impossible.
    Aug 15 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Montage Technology: An Attractive Deal With 22.8% Annualized Return [View article]
    Depends on how well you know the company. If you just state the obvious and never even talked to the insiders in the industry in China, you reach the same conclusion as everyone else who fails do enough work before jumping to conclusion.
    Aug 13 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Montage Technology: An Attractive Deal With 22.8% Annualized Return [View article]
    your simple analysis assumes that the stock is worth 0 in downside scenario...
    Aug 12 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Montage Technology: An Attractive Deal With 22.8% Annualized Return [View article]
    that's not the definition of implied probability
    Aug 12 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Montage Technology: An Attractive Deal With 22.8% Annualized Return [View article]
    1. I am sure you can find them if you wish, given how good your Chinese is.

    2. You make it sound that people in city really like to watch CCTV, the national channels that report political news all the time. It is worse than having no TV signals and just buy a radio. There are so much more choices with a cable service and I am sure 90%+ people buy a TV for entertaining, not to receive the information that is available on radio.

    3. If the journal is a reputable journal, why would the author use a fake name? If you look him up, he only has one article published under his name. You would not call an article credible if it comes from a writer who uses fake name and only published one article.

    4. The article is definitely against you claim that all experts except isuppli think ALi and MONT are not comparable at the same level. Different research institutes may use different ways to calculate the market share but the fact that MONT is a powerful competitor of ALi is confirmed here.

    5. What are the various corrupt reasons you talk about? I do not think this kind of guessing is good reasoning.
    Aug 11 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Montage Technology: An Attractive Deal With 22.8% Annualized Return [View article]
    I would not say there are such analyses unless I have seen the articles I talked about. So I do not know what do you mean by "they will not provide it".

    The CWW article you quoted re SARFT has too many factual mistakes that I do not consider it a credible new source. For example, the news claims that the illegal receiver producers manufacture 5 mn units per month or 60 mn per year. If you multiply that by 4.5 years (from March 2010 to today), that's 12.5% more than the total addressable market in China, meaning either 1/8 of the poor families in the countryside happen to have enough money to change a brand new SoC equipment or some families with cables also wanted to get a SoC which has much fewer channels. At least I don't see how it is possible.

    Can you find the actual notice from SARFT website, or from a reputable government-owned news sources such as Xinhua.net? The reason that I do not consider the CWW news is that I do not believe it is a reputable news source that people can be relied on.

    Another problem is that the Chinese semiconductor industry is not regulated by SARFT. It is regulated by MIIT. A report saying that SARFT claim a Chinese semiconductor company to manufacture illegally is like a news report about FDA's claim Bank of America doing something illegal. In fact, if you search for Montage on SARFT website, you find no results.

    In fact, from the following news, you see that research analysts in Taiwan are worried that semiconductor companies from Mainland China with the help of the favorable policies (specifically mentioned Montage) can easily catch up with second-tier companies like ALi. If ALi and Montage are not even on the same stage, why would analysts get worried. http://bit.ly/1oVo2ZY

    Also, you seem to think that PDSTI and/or the Shanghai government is the biggest fool because they are still trying to buy a fraud company after they have complete due diligence. The problem is, PDSTI has previously made offers for SPRD and RDA and has even done DD on RDA. So any reasonable investor will assume that PDSTI knows a lot about the industry by the time they bid for Montage. Then Montage must be such a great scam that PDSTI is fooled even with its extensive knowledge about the industry. I am not convinced by this view.

    The bottom line is this deal will close no matter you are happy about it or not. We can tell the results in 3 months.
    Aug 11 12:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Long Opportunity For The Remaining Days Of 2012: Ocean Shore Holding [View article]
    Hi Chris,

    Do you have any new thoughts on OSHC? I saw you changed the filing type to 13G from 13D.

    Thanks!
    Aug 8 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intervest Bancshares Corp.: Confusion In Merger Consideration Creates An Attractive Opportunity [View article]
    what buyout price did you use?
    Aug 8 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intervest Bancshares Corp.: Confusion In Merger Consideration Creates An Attractive Opportunity [View article]
    How did you get option payout $3.2mn? I got 9.9799 while your calculation gets you 9.986
    Aug 8 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intervest Bancshares Corp.: Confusion In Merger Consideration Creates An Attractive Opportunity [View article]
    1) The calculation procedure you used is not correct. Please refer to the merger agreement for the correct procedure. The main problem is that you need to calculate Company Stock Price first and then Fully Diluted Company Stock Price which is the per-share merger consideration before dividend.

    2) If you read the merger agreement. the adjustment are cost of cashing out the treasury warrants (which I took into account), a potential decrease if the book value fall below $202mn and a potential increase if there is a sale of assets. The current book value of IBCA is $206.6mn. So unless the bank screws up in the Q3 and Q4, the adjustment is unlikely to be downward from my results.

    3) If you read the merger agreement, the restricted shares are vested prior to closing. I have accounted for these in my calculation. If you have talked to the management, you shall know that IBCA won't issue more shares prior to closing.

    4) There are a few deals with more than 5% gross spread, but most are more risky and/or with longer time horizons such as the gaming deals.
    Aug 8 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sino Gas International Holdings: 5.7% Gross Profit In 1.5 Months [View article]
    The deal was approved by SGAS shareholders today
    Aug 6 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Beaten-Down TCC International Is Financially Attractive With Potential Catalysts [View article]
    The shares are up 19% since this article was published. With the recent signal of fiscal easing in China, we think there will be more upside to the stock since the growth in the real estate sector is likely to pick up.
    Jul 26 01:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CMS Bancorp And... One Million Dollars [View article]
    Hi Chris,

    Thanks for the nice write-up. What is the timeline like for the litigation? And what is your thought about the 1.25x P/B in your assumption? Do you think it is a conservative estimation?
    Jul 23 01:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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